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Civ4 AI Survivor Season Six

Vicky finally delivered a performance adequate to her traits, but several AI had to throw their games in various fashions to help her along:

* Wang Kong inexplicably failed to expand past five core cities, freeing up plenty of land for England, and then went out of his way to sabotage Monty's invasion of Justinian, ensuring the Aztecs had no chance of snowballing into a threat. 

* Darius continued to cement his reputation as one of the least competent AI personalities, getting stuck on a small handful of cities for ages and ceding a couple city spots to England in the process. 

* Hannibal performed even worse than expected, with Vicky claiming at least a few cities which ought to have been his. 


Both Justinian and Zara were passive as well, outside of wars they were dragged into, so nobody was available to call Vicky on her ridiculous, strung-out empire until she was far too advanced to anyone to stop her.  I suspect she doesn't do too well in the replays. 
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That's it for Game Eight and the opening round! Thanks to everyone who turned out on the Livestream yesterday for our usual Friday livestream session, it was a lot of fun sharing the experience with you. Here's the big list of links as we continue with Season Six:

Main Season Six Webpage

Sullla Twitch Page

Sullla Discord Channel

Current Bracket and Standings

YouTube Playlist of Season Six AI Survivor Games

Civ4 AI Survivor Season Six: Leader Previews

AI Reference Guide from CivFanatics

Complete AI Survivor Archives



Next Game: Wildcard Game

Schedule: Scheduled for Friday, 09 July 2021 at Noon EST

Wildcard Game Video Preview

Wildcard Game Written Preview

Wildcard Game Picking Contest Entry Form

Congratulations to shsboog81, Kuro, and Madmandoc as the winners of Game Eight's picking contest with 19 points each. thumbsup Scoring was pretty typical for this game at an average of 7.03 points. We continue with our normal Friday schedule for next week's game. This time we have the Wildcard Game with nine total leaders on a Large map with Raging Barbarians - who do you have this week?
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I want to see the barbarians win one day
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You know, as much as they get crapped on, I think Justinian actually gets helped by his start techs. The two worst failure modes we've seen since not giving the AI their Deity bonus have been "don't research Wheel" and "don't research Mysticism", which Byzantium is *forced* to avoid falling in to.
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I thought Monty was a high variance play. I knew I was reckless but my thought was: Monty uses his hunting tech to beat out Justinian to the first religious tech. Then he spreads it to Justinian, who divides Zara with him. Then Monty is rolling.

Alas for my stupidity.
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I don't know, Monty didn't lose for doing crazy Monty things. It seemed like things were very much going his way with the early success in war against Justinian. Then in the 2nd war it looked like the perfect time for him and Wang Kon to gang up on a common neighbor.

But Wang Kon isn't called the Troll King for nothing.
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I think it would always be more likely WK fights Monty than Justinian due to peace weight and Monty attacking all WKs friends. My prediction is that in the alternate history, Monty dies in something like 19/20 games. Plus that whole side of the map was very religious, so I think Monty will rarely have ... I want to say "friends" but that's not the right word for other AIs near him he doesn't attack.
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(July 3rd, 2021, 14:14)Commodore Wrote: The two worst failure modes we've seen since not giving the AI their Deity bonus have been "don't research Wheel" and "don't research Mysticism", which Byzantium is *forced* to avoid falling in to.

We did see some new ground broken in AI failure modes that game.  If Hannibal had somehow pulled that out..
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Haven't followed this in years, surprised it's still going, watched through all the games from this season in the past few days. Looks like there's been some highly unique games this year, and I can't wait for more. Picks submitted for WC, though I have no confidence in anything at this point lol.

Edit: side note, having not posted in years, my user title here is looking exceedingly ironic at the moment.
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Community predictions added to the Wildcard Game preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6-9-preview.html

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The Wildcard game can be a tough one to predict given the larger than normal size of the field and the unpredictability of the Raging Barbarians. Despite this potential issue, the community settled on two strong favorites in the form of Huayna Capac and Gandhi. Most of the field believed that one of these two leaders would emerge victorious thanks to their economic and cultural strengths. The second place position had less clarity but there was a lot of support for Gilgamesh to escape the Wildcard round as the other playoff-bound leader. Gilgamesh had more than double the votes of the next-closest leaders in Pericles and Wang Kon. The First to Die category had a similar level of support for Louis in the top spot, likely because of the barbarian-heavy jungles surrounding his capital, followed by Lincoln and then Zara Yaqob. This felt like a tough category to pick since it was unclear how the barbarian threat would play out ahead of time. For the victory condition, the presence of so many leaders meant that Domination was unlikely as an outcome leading to a split in the vote between Spaceship and Culture. Both of the favorites in Gandhi and Huayna Capac are culture-heavy leaders and it was an open question how they would opt to finish things off should they get ahead.

Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!

Dagoth Gares: The first leader to throw off the trappings of civilization and join the barbarians will be the winner.

delan: Too many variables to compress into a prediction that suits all. If I had more space, I'd write a piece titled "Thirteen Ways of Looking at the Wild Card Game," because I can see the potential for so many things, and Raging Barbs obviously up the chaos factor. High likelihood of cultural victory in this field of peaceniks and culturally sensitive, low peace-weight types like Huayna Capac. I like HC's land, his easy access to ivory, and the juicy conga line of prey along the south. Lincoln looks like a candidate for first to die simply because of Louis and HC nearby promising to antagonize and push west. It's really hard to forecast a peacenik cultural victory and not pick Gandhi, who myopically focuses on culture in a way that Pericles, Lincoln, and the like simply cannot, for they fear death, and Gandhi does not fear death. Yet death may come for Gandhi, and I find it unlikely that he'll be able to push culture unmolested, despite his insulated position, because of Raging Barbs and the eventual threat of HC and Louis. Gilgamesh in the north is also a factor. He has good traits for the wild card game, as he showed last year, and I like his starting position enough, although there's some risk that he derails his game and throws units at Wang Kon, who also has second place potential given the high quality of his capital and the possibility he might snag a religion, although I am not brave enough to pick him. Gonna pick the all star and let it ride. Go, Huayna Capac, go!

rachel: Next week, on U62, he's back; and he's mad. GANDHI II

NotSpamBot: Gandhi only has peacenick neighbors. He has to get truely screwed by barbs to lose this. Louis FTD because that traitorous viper has it coming. I do feel that Gilgamesh might be FTD because his luck is that bad, but I don't like Louis and I like Gilly, so there. And uhhh Wang Kon 2nd I guess? I want more The Wang so that's what I'll cheer for.

Amicalola: I remember I said (in a very rare correct guess) for Mansa’s game last year: "it doesn’t matter how many cottages mansa has by T100; by T150 he’ll be dead." It’s a real shame this game ended up being mostly high peaceweight leaders, because a similar sentiment is true for Huayna Capac and Gilgamesh this game; being outnumbered 2:1 is really bad. So even though they’re the strongest here in a vacuum, I like the high peace weight leaders overall. Of those, I like Pericles with his sheltered start to win, and Roosevelt with his zero enemies to come second. But it could honestly be nearly any of them for either; there isn’t even that much to distinguish these guys. Hopefully it’s not a boring lovefest and I’m wrong!

Delta-07: This wet-corn-stone start a dream for Huayana Capac. Either he or Louis will build the great wall. If Huayana builds it all the barbs from the south-east tundra will search another target and they will find Lincoln. Thus, I expect Lincoln and Gandhi to have a hard time against the barbs. But, Ghandi is already so close to the tundra that his capitol will fog-bust some tiles. The peace weight difference between Lincoln and Huayana might also be an issue, so I think Lincoln is first to die just because he is in the way of Huayana. Gandhi has a good position. He is right between the two wimps Lincoln and Roosevelt who will not hurt each other. If Lincoln dies, Gandhi might be in trouble too. But if Lincoln stays alive for long enough and Gandhi survives the raging barbs, he can have chance at winning a culture victory. Zara wil not do anything, except founding a religion. His land is too deep into the jungle and he might end up without metal. Gilgamesh is the strongest competitor of Huayana. Gilgamesh should not have any big troubles against the barbs because of his protective trait, his unique unit and the little aount of tundra in the north. I hope he wil roll over Wang Kon because I want revenge for messing with my picks in the last game. For Louis it depends on the location of his first city. If he settles close to the stone in the south, he might get the great wall especially if Huayana is chasing after religions. But if Louis settles in the jungles and builds a settler for 90 turns, that will ruin his game. In general I think a domination victory is very unlikely. The map is too large and it would take a lot of time for a single AI to conquer that much land. During that time another AI might already be in space or have a culture victory. If the high peace weigth leaders dogpile on the three low peace weigth leaders, there is a chance for a diplo victory. If the low peace weigth leaders are gone, the diplomatic situation between the high peace weight leaders will be a love-fest. But I think space or culture is the most likely victory type. I pick Huayna for first and Gilgamesh for second place. A very conservative pick, but the weak AIs like Linconln and Pericles have to get weeded out against the strong ones at some point, don't they?

Sir Colville of the Dale: The three most celebrated Cultural Victory winners are all here. Two of them have at least one meat shield, and the third is Huayna. Cultural win. So which one? Gandhi can actually win the land grab. Huayna will have to eat Lincoln just to match it. Pericles could make up a lot of ground eating Louis, but that might drag him into war with Huayna, and that's assuming Troll Kon survives. Assuming Louis' barbarian-infested jungle stymies him, Gandhi has no natural enemies. That's about all he can ask for. And I swear if Gilgamesh attacks Zara first letting Wang Kon tech to space in peace...

bellarch: I am honestly stumped by this game. Huayna Capac has a good start, but the peaceweight situation looks very bad for him, and it looks like he'll have a hard time spreading his religion. Gandhi is the best high peaceweight leader, but he's right next to the tundra wasteland where the barbs spawn, and he'll be fending off their incursions with his puny military for the entire early game. Gilgamesh is in a corner, boxed in by highish-peaceweight leaders and next to the tundra. Pericles is in a similar situation, albeit with a higher peaceweight but a lower overall level of competence. I think my pick is going to have to go chalky for this week - Huayna wins, not so much by dominating the competition but by outlasting them to a late-ish space victory. And for second? I feel like Roosevelt, with his relatively safe coastal-ish start and copper at the capital, is in the best place to do decently enough to squeak out a second-place finish. The real shocker is Gandhi - who will fail to get a religion or wonders given his commerce-poor and production-poor start and lack of willingness to build military, and subsequently die first at the hands of the barbs! (An unlikely outcome, sure, but a fun one, and I think somewhat plausible.) But hey, I could very well be wrong about literally anything here - I think anyone who tells you they feel confident about this map is lying to you.

Bobchillingworth: All that is needed for Evil to triumph is for the Good to do nothing. Unfortunately for the forces of Evil, they're outnumbered two-to-one, stuck with Iron for metal while all of Team Good have nearby or capital copper, and Gandhi is safe in a corner of the map. Gilgamesh will likely focus on Wang early on, but between capital copper and ivory, Protective, and Financial teching the Koreans aren't necessarily going to be pushovers. Huey meanwhile desperately needs Louis to collaborate with him to split Blue America and open a path to India, but how much coordinated military action can you expect from two Industrious leaders with nearby stone and no copper?

Pariakso: I think Huayna Capac will get The Great Wall with the stone making the early game easy. From there, it won't be so difficult to stay ahead. Zara had a decent start in terms of food once he can get the tech, so getting settlers out will be not too hard. I put him second because of this and the fact that he has a lot of space. Plus he's a good techer. Usually Ghandi would be my pick for first two die, but his neighbors are peaceful, and I think they will end up in the same religion, so any civ that attacks him may have to deal to others too. I put Louis since he's close to the center where barbarians will be and sandwiched between civs. Very likely to neighbor someone of a different religion too. Other than that, I don't have much reason to pick these.

Zigzagzone: This game is gonna be so fun. Back-stabbers, troll kings, a barb jungle in the middle with hordes coming from both north and south, tons of leaders cramped together, and the three competent players far from each other. And all of them love culture victories, too! So it has to be Gandhi by culture after a Louis backstab on Huayna saves him, right?

Blindeli: Huayna Capac and Louis XIV should work together to conquer Lincoln and then Ghandi and maybe more. I expect those peaceful leaders to suffer from barbarians early, leaving them easy prey. After finishing some conquests, HC proceeds to tech to space while Louis tries to grab the rest of the world. Meanwhile in the north, Wang Kon ruins Gilgamesh's chances at winning and maybe his own too. Zara, Roosevelt, and Pericles do nothing of importance whatsoever.

LinkMarioSamus: Do I have any idea what's going to happen? Obviously not. I'm just thinking Gandhi wins because he tends to do well in fields stacked with high-peace weight leaders, Wang Kon 2nd because he has the most potential after the rest, and Louis FTD because his tentative diplomatic situation is so bad? I dunno. I considered picking Huayna Capac and he could do it if he kills Lincoln quickly enough but, uh, he doesn't tend to kill quick and diplomacy could get the better of him if Louis gets taken out. Gilgamesh should be held in check by diplomacy and his lack of useful attributes past the early game, Zara Yaqob and Pericles tend to be passive, Lincoln has Huayna Capac and Gandhi next door to him, and Roosevelt is just not very strong. How do you predict a game like this, anyway?

BigBadBen: Nothing would seem more fitting to me than one of the 'has-beens' winning a game with HC, Giggles, and Gandhi in it. I'm not brave enough to pick out which one it would be though. Pieceweight levels as a whole are maybe lower than what Gandhi would prefer, but he did get arguably his two favorite leaders to border him in the Americans. I don't think Ghandi will get crushed by the barbs with his insane culture. HC could have been my pick too, but I'm not a big fan of his start and Lincoln has a gold mine at his capital and better land, so even if Lincoln does die to HC, it'll be bloody and set him too far behind the field to snowball to victory. I've got Giggles for second since he should be able to overcome his neighbors (and the barbs) without too much issue. There's too many leaders for a fast domination though, and with a Gandhi that doesn't get dog-piled immediately, an average victory date isn't likely to be good enough to come out on top.

ThreeLeggedChicken: One of the maps that could develop in many orthogonal directions. The best in-paper leaders (Incas, Sumerians, maybe even the Frenchies) start at a diplomatic disadvantage by means of peace-weight distribution. This will be a factor for Louis, whose central position is unlikely to do him favors, and I feel kinda ambivalent towards Gilgamesh - he borders potential religious ally (or crusader) Zara, and Wang out of all people. Huayna, on the other hand, has his south and east protected by water, his north protected by wonder, and his west occupied by two leaders who cannot be counted upon as defenders. His victory path goes westwards, through consolidating an early powerful core, capturing rich, wonder-filled and potentially holy cities from Lincoln and Gandhi, thwarting thus their attempts to win by Culture and then making them his own. Second is, for me at least, a toss between Zara and Pericles - I am going with the second, under the assumption he will gain the most from Louis falling and then building in peace.

BohemianSpoonyBard: When the Raging Barbarians are turned on but you are Protective and Financial:

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Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, July 9th!
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