Community predictions added to the Playoff Game Three preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6...eview.html
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![[Image: survivor6-12-12.jpg]](http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/Survivor/S6/survivor6-12-12.jpg)
After a run of games with dominant Financial leaders, the community once again selected Huayna Capac as the strong favorite going into this match. The Incan leader's share of the pie chart looked like a true Pac Man as it gobbled up more than 2/3rds of the votes. The other categories had less of a single favorite with the Runner Up selections mostly split between Mao Zedong and Augustus. Almost everyone was picking one of these two leaders to advance to the championship behind Huayna Capac. The First to Die category was much more split with Alexander and Churchill drawing the most predictions but no one truly emerging as a consensus choice. About the only thing that everyone could agree on was Mao Zedong not exiting the game first. When it came to the victory type, Spaceship was a clear choice with Cultural in second place and Domination distantly trailing. We hadn't seen a Domination ending since Game Five and the community was expecting another peaceful finish of some kind.
Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!
Bobchillingworth: I would absolutely love to see Alex win, but by the time he gets iron online I think Huey will have had plenty of time to connect his own metals, and the civs to the south are too distant to run over any of them within a reasonable timeframe. Also, he's opening by building a workboat any seafood, which doesn't inspire confidence. Huey is the obvious pick to win, and Mao is much less likely to self-destruct and therefore will likely ride Incan coattails to runner-up status. Meanwhile, the southern civs are going to go mad with wonderlust, and they're all known for being slow-to-moderate techers whose standout characteristics are achieving drawn-out deaths.
NotSpamBot: ...this could be a repeat of Game 6. Augustus has Marble in his captial so he won't expand much, Sitting Bull is never going to attack Churchill, and it seems like Alexander would rather ruin Huayna Capac's chances than attack Churchill. Thus Churchill will get a lot of land settled and then likely be left alone. Mao might come calling, but I feel like he will piss away his game attacking Sitting Bull.
Dagoth Gares: Considering that five of these leaders are arriving at the match in one very packed clown car, the choice seems obvious.
Khnud: As much as I'd like not to vote for the overwhelming favourite, this game is just made for Huayna Capac, as he'll surely dominate the low peace weight north. Huayna settles towards Mao, and his second city will be a holy city, so Mao will get squeezed on territory and won't accomplish much. Alex is stuck with a weird start, he's a fishing civ who starts on a coast, but has no fish resources. Bah! This will hamper his progress and he'll pick a fight with someone stronger than him. In the south, Augustus' imperialistic settlers might snipe either Churchill's iron or his copper, as it appears like the Englishman will expand east, towards Sitting Bull. So Churchill will likely be weak, and thus a prime target for the northern warmongers. Chances are he'll get ganged up on, so Churchill's out first. The real question is who comes in second. Sitting Bull has arguably the best land among all the leaders, but his personality leaves a lot to be desired. Augustus, on the other hand, might run off to wonderland, having both marble and stone close to his capital. Still, I have to side with the Romans here, hoping Augustus can stay out of the early wars and perhaps get some mutual military struggle bonuses or make some religious pals. His isolated position will shelter him somewhat and allow him to sneak in second.
SirSystemError: THIS IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL! THAT SECOND PLACE WAS NO FLUKE. HE IS GOING TO TRIUMPH OVER ALL THE OTHER LEADERS, BACKED BY FELLOW HIGH PEACE WEIGHT CHURCHILL, AND MAKE A LOT OF PEOPLE ANGRY OVER THEIR PICKS BEING RUINED. BUT SMILE! THAT MEANS EVERYONE ELSE'S PICKS WILL BE RUINED TOO! THAT IS, EVERYONE BUT ME!!!!!
Amicalola: Augustus is actually going to pull an Asoka and luck his way into the championship. Sitting Bull is going to pull an even luckier Washington. Yuck, I'm going to be rooting against my own picks while watching this...
delan: Tough game to call. I don't like anyone's position completely. Part of the issue is the low peace-weight are bunched together and separated from the high peace-weight leaders by a lot of jungle. The odds that they start quarreling with each other and poison relations are high. Huayna Capac would probably be an easy favourite if it weren't for Alex next door, and Mao would be an easier call for 2nd if he weren't next door to the guy I'm picking to win the game. Augustus has a nice capitol that synergizes with his starting techs, yet I am suspicious of whether he can really convert that into a win, especially given his precarious metals situation. I don't think any of the other high peace-weight leaders in the south who fluked into this game have the personalities to leverage their fine capitols and terrain, but the way they win is if Alex throws Huayna Capac's game out of wack enough that he can't get ahead and stay ahead.
Tokudiploftw: Ok, so i dont care about getting points,never have. I look at favorites for first and second and then remove them as choices for me. So Capac first and Mao second is a no go for me. Therefor im going to go crazy here and say that Mao+Alex rolls over Capac. Sitting expands like always and gets into a very strong position while Augustus builds wonders and takes second place. All three highpeace leaders techs away from Mao and Alex to safety. Sitting wins a slow spacevictory
Unlikely? Yes! Funny? Yes!
Slashin': It’s always a scary bet to bet against our boy, but I have hopes that some of the high peace weights come out of the game and lead to a more balanced championship game. Augustus has an ideal start for his techs, starting with work boats and a mined plains hill marble that effectively translates to a 10 production tile when he goes o to build those settlers (IF he decides to build them) Having both wonder resources means that when he inevitably goes for those shiny wonders, he’ll at least get them done in a reasonable amount of time, and his start is promising enough that he can manage to get a reasonably large empire alongside the coast. HC has a fertile river valley that’s amazing for his cottage cheese, but it is a slow start with 4f/1C tiles being the bests use of his agricultural trait. With early improvable resources being a bit scarce around his vicinity, I do think his slow start in combination with being flanked by Greek hoplites in the classical era slows him down enough for one of the other leaders to pull ahead, if not outright killed. SB has the most land to expand Into and he’ll probably get into long protracted wars with his Chinese nemesis, getting enough land to do well enough before Augustus launches into space at a late finishing date.
kcostell: Augustus may be first to die, but at least he'll make some other Civ very happy with all the wonders they capture.
Bernn: On paper, Huayna Capac should be able to utterly sweep this lineup, but I'm very uncertain about his odds. Not only is his capital pretty weak, his neighbors are uneasy allies at the best of times and there's a high backstab possibility here. If HC goes for a religion first, he'll be stuck with one of those awkward no food resources for the first 25 turns openings, and if Alexander or Mao comes charging in with an early war, the Incas will be sent into a tailspin even HC probably can't recover from. The southern leaders may be an extremely passive bunch, but by the time any aggression comes their way, they have a good chance of being too far ahead in tech to care. It sounds completely alien, but I actually like Sitting Bull the most here. He's the only one in the south with an immediately improvable food resource and his land in general is great with plenty of rivers and double gold resources within easy reach. He'll be able to get out in front of the pack early and stay there until (eventually) blasting into space. We saw in Game One this season how he can hold his own in certain diplomatic environments, and I think we'll get a repeat showing here. Against every instinct, I'm betting on the Native Americans this time.
T K: As strong as Huayna Capac is in a vacuum, his position here isn't all that good. Great land, sure, but his eastern neighbor won't care about his religion, his western neighbor is a rabid warmonger, and both can plot at pleased. There is a reasonable chance that the low peace weights, who will build considerable border tension before they even touch the southern nations, tear each other down while the high peace weights slowly build a lead and take them out. Granted, they all pretty much have to hope that happens for any of them to have a real shot of making the championship other than *maybe* Augustus, but it's enough to keep this from being an easy picking round.
Freberatz: The big question on this map is: What will Alexander do? My thinking is, not much. His capital is not on a river (so no commerce), only Corn as a food resource (doesn't start with agriculture), and the closest metal resource is iron (so he needs to tech up slowly to iron working before he can start plotting wars). The snowball just starts rolling too late. I don't see anyone else on the map who tends to conquer a lot of land in the early to mid game, so the advantage goes to long term financial leaders. Which means I'm rooting for Huayna Capac to win. Mao is close in peace weight to HC and will probably share a religion, so he'll be the runner up. Alexander will declare too many long distance wars, get coalitioned, and dies first.
Agni Neres: This game is Huayna's to win or lose. If he comes out of the opening with a solid core, he wins in 300 turns, space or culture. If not...then who? An Alex snowball is unlikely, as Greece cannot beat Rome. Churchill, Sitting Bull, and Mao are all usually lackluster. Augustus domination, perhaps? My chips are on HC.
Sir Colville of the Dale: Macedonian War Council, Babylon: "Your Majesty, we know you are the greatest and wisest commander. We still have a question. Why did you not attack Russia? They were ripe for the picking." "The oracle gave me a message. 'If Aphrodite returns to the stars, then the Invincible One will conquer the third world.' When I saw the launchpad, I knew. Hers was not the world to conquer." "But don't you seek to conquer all worlds?" "Not anymore. The only path to immortality is to conquer the final world. If we had conquered Russia, the path to that world was through the likes of Mansa and Sury. Even Darius had thwarted conquerors before. By fulfilling the prophecy, we are now facing men who don't know war: Augustus, Churchill, Sitting Bull. This is a two-horse race with Mao!" "But there are rumors that a leader has returned from Hades to take one last shot at glory." "The leaders in Asphodel got there by being pathetic leaders. Who knows? Maybe Gandhi got out and I'll finally conquer India! But I sent a scout just to be sure. Best to know whether the first world to conquer is east or south! Here he is now! What news?" "Your Majesty, I could not get close to the city, but I met one of their warriors. He had a wooden shield and a hammer. No armor. He called himself 'Kay-Ka' or something like that. Our phalanx will make quick work of him." Alexander's expression changed to one of fear, "Did you say QUECHUA?!?" "That's what it was. Your Majesty? Are you all right?" With a cynical look he said, "Of course the oracle would hedge her bets. Because the oracle didn't really know who would win." "What are you saying?" "Huayna Capac. The most dangerous commander we have ever faced. But get ready. It's time to show that Oracle who the Invincible One is!" "Might I offer a suggestion? Maybe we don't. Maybe we make like the oracle and keep it ambiguous. Let him lead the way to the final world and beat him there. That would still work, right?" "I don't like it, but we'll see..."
Playoff Game Three Picking Contest Entry Form
Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, July 30th!
After a run of games with dominant Financial leaders, the community once again selected Huayna Capac as the strong favorite going into this match. The Incan leader's share of the pie chart looked like a true Pac Man as it gobbled up more than 2/3rds of the votes. The other categories had less of a single favorite with the Runner Up selections mostly split between Mao Zedong and Augustus. Almost everyone was picking one of these two leaders to advance to the championship behind Huayna Capac. The First to Die category was much more split with Alexander and Churchill drawing the most predictions but no one truly emerging as a consensus choice. About the only thing that everyone could agree on was Mao Zedong not exiting the game first. When it came to the victory type, Spaceship was a clear choice with Cultural in second place and Domination distantly trailing. We hadn't seen a Domination ending since Game Five and the community was expecting another peaceful finish of some kind.
Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!
Bobchillingworth: I would absolutely love to see Alex win, but by the time he gets iron online I think Huey will have had plenty of time to connect his own metals, and the civs to the south are too distant to run over any of them within a reasonable timeframe. Also, he's opening by building a workboat any seafood, which doesn't inspire confidence. Huey is the obvious pick to win, and Mao is much less likely to self-destruct and therefore will likely ride Incan coattails to runner-up status. Meanwhile, the southern civs are going to go mad with wonderlust, and they're all known for being slow-to-moderate techers whose standout characteristics are achieving drawn-out deaths.
NotSpamBot: ...this could be a repeat of Game 6. Augustus has Marble in his captial so he won't expand much, Sitting Bull is never going to attack Churchill, and it seems like Alexander would rather ruin Huayna Capac's chances than attack Churchill. Thus Churchill will get a lot of land settled and then likely be left alone. Mao might come calling, but I feel like he will piss away his game attacking Sitting Bull.
Dagoth Gares: Considering that five of these leaders are arriving at the match in one very packed clown car, the choice seems obvious.
Khnud: As much as I'd like not to vote for the overwhelming favourite, this game is just made for Huayna Capac, as he'll surely dominate the low peace weight north. Huayna settles towards Mao, and his second city will be a holy city, so Mao will get squeezed on territory and won't accomplish much. Alex is stuck with a weird start, he's a fishing civ who starts on a coast, but has no fish resources. Bah! This will hamper his progress and he'll pick a fight with someone stronger than him. In the south, Augustus' imperialistic settlers might snipe either Churchill's iron or his copper, as it appears like the Englishman will expand east, towards Sitting Bull. So Churchill will likely be weak, and thus a prime target for the northern warmongers. Chances are he'll get ganged up on, so Churchill's out first. The real question is who comes in second. Sitting Bull has arguably the best land among all the leaders, but his personality leaves a lot to be desired. Augustus, on the other hand, might run off to wonderland, having both marble and stone close to his capital. Still, I have to side with the Romans here, hoping Augustus can stay out of the early wars and perhaps get some mutual military struggle bonuses or make some religious pals. His isolated position will shelter him somewhat and allow him to sneak in second.
SirSystemError: THIS IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL! THAT SECOND PLACE WAS NO FLUKE. HE IS GOING TO TRIUMPH OVER ALL THE OTHER LEADERS, BACKED BY FELLOW HIGH PEACE WEIGHT CHURCHILL, AND MAKE A LOT OF PEOPLE ANGRY OVER THEIR PICKS BEING RUINED. BUT SMILE! THAT MEANS EVERYONE ELSE'S PICKS WILL BE RUINED TOO! THAT IS, EVERYONE BUT ME!!!!!
Amicalola: Augustus is actually going to pull an Asoka and luck his way into the championship. Sitting Bull is going to pull an even luckier Washington. Yuck, I'm going to be rooting against my own picks while watching this...
delan: Tough game to call. I don't like anyone's position completely. Part of the issue is the low peace-weight are bunched together and separated from the high peace-weight leaders by a lot of jungle. The odds that they start quarreling with each other and poison relations are high. Huayna Capac would probably be an easy favourite if it weren't for Alex next door, and Mao would be an easier call for 2nd if he weren't next door to the guy I'm picking to win the game. Augustus has a nice capitol that synergizes with his starting techs, yet I am suspicious of whether he can really convert that into a win, especially given his precarious metals situation. I don't think any of the other high peace-weight leaders in the south who fluked into this game have the personalities to leverage their fine capitols and terrain, but the way they win is if Alex throws Huayna Capac's game out of wack enough that he can't get ahead and stay ahead.
Tokudiploftw: Ok, so i dont care about getting points,never have. I look at favorites for first and second and then remove them as choices for me. So Capac first and Mao second is a no go for me. Therefor im going to go crazy here and say that Mao+Alex rolls over Capac. Sitting expands like always and gets into a very strong position while Augustus builds wonders and takes second place. All three highpeace leaders techs away from Mao and Alex to safety. Sitting wins a slow spacevictory
Unlikely? Yes! Funny? Yes!Slashin': It’s always a scary bet to bet against our boy, but I have hopes that some of the high peace weights come out of the game and lead to a more balanced championship game. Augustus has an ideal start for his techs, starting with work boats and a mined plains hill marble that effectively translates to a 10 production tile when he goes o to build those settlers (IF he decides to build them) Having both wonder resources means that when he inevitably goes for those shiny wonders, he’ll at least get them done in a reasonable amount of time, and his start is promising enough that he can manage to get a reasonably large empire alongside the coast. HC has a fertile river valley that’s amazing for his cottage cheese, but it is a slow start with 4f/1C tiles being the bests use of his agricultural trait. With early improvable resources being a bit scarce around his vicinity, I do think his slow start in combination with being flanked by Greek hoplites in the classical era slows him down enough for one of the other leaders to pull ahead, if not outright killed. SB has the most land to expand Into and he’ll probably get into long protracted wars with his Chinese nemesis, getting enough land to do well enough before Augustus launches into space at a late finishing date.
kcostell: Augustus may be first to die, but at least he'll make some other Civ very happy with all the wonders they capture.
Bernn: On paper, Huayna Capac should be able to utterly sweep this lineup, but I'm very uncertain about his odds. Not only is his capital pretty weak, his neighbors are uneasy allies at the best of times and there's a high backstab possibility here. If HC goes for a religion first, he'll be stuck with one of those awkward no food resources for the first 25 turns openings, and if Alexander or Mao comes charging in with an early war, the Incas will be sent into a tailspin even HC probably can't recover from. The southern leaders may be an extremely passive bunch, but by the time any aggression comes their way, they have a good chance of being too far ahead in tech to care. It sounds completely alien, but I actually like Sitting Bull the most here. He's the only one in the south with an immediately improvable food resource and his land in general is great with plenty of rivers and double gold resources within easy reach. He'll be able to get out in front of the pack early and stay there until (eventually) blasting into space. We saw in Game One this season how he can hold his own in certain diplomatic environments, and I think we'll get a repeat showing here. Against every instinct, I'm betting on the Native Americans this time.
T K: As strong as Huayna Capac is in a vacuum, his position here isn't all that good. Great land, sure, but his eastern neighbor won't care about his religion, his western neighbor is a rabid warmonger, and both can plot at pleased. There is a reasonable chance that the low peace weights, who will build considerable border tension before they even touch the southern nations, tear each other down while the high peace weights slowly build a lead and take them out. Granted, they all pretty much have to hope that happens for any of them to have a real shot of making the championship other than *maybe* Augustus, but it's enough to keep this from being an easy picking round.
Freberatz: The big question on this map is: What will Alexander do? My thinking is, not much. His capital is not on a river (so no commerce), only Corn as a food resource (doesn't start with agriculture), and the closest metal resource is iron (so he needs to tech up slowly to iron working before he can start plotting wars). The snowball just starts rolling too late. I don't see anyone else on the map who tends to conquer a lot of land in the early to mid game, so the advantage goes to long term financial leaders. Which means I'm rooting for Huayna Capac to win. Mao is close in peace weight to HC and will probably share a religion, so he'll be the runner up. Alexander will declare too many long distance wars, get coalitioned, and dies first.
Agni Neres: This game is Huayna's to win or lose. If he comes out of the opening with a solid core, he wins in 300 turns, space or culture. If not...then who? An Alex snowball is unlikely, as Greece cannot beat Rome. Churchill, Sitting Bull, and Mao are all usually lackluster. Augustus domination, perhaps? My chips are on HC.
Sir Colville of the Dale: Macedonian War Council, Babylon: "Your Majesty, we know you are the greatest and wisest commander. We still have a question. Why did you not attack Russia? They were ripe for the picking." "The oracle gave me a message. 'If Aphrodite returns to the stars, then the Invincible One will conquer the third world.' When I saw the launchpad, I knew. Hers was not the world to conquer." "But don't you seek to conquer all worlds?" "Not anymore. The only path to immortality is to conquer the final world. If we had conquered Russia, the path to that world was through the likes of Mansa and Sury. Even Darius had thwarted conquerors before. By fulfilling the prophecy, we are now facing men who don't know war: Augustus, Churchill, Sitting Bull. This is a two-horse race with Mao!" "But there are rumors that a leader has returned from Hades to take one last shot at glory." "The leaders in Asphodel got there by being pathetic leaders. Who knows? Maybe Gandhi got out and I'll finally conquer India! But I sent a scout just to be sure. Best to know whether the first world to conquer is east or south! Here he is now! What news?" "Your Majesty, I could not get close to the city, but I met one of their warriors. He had a wooden shield and a hammer. No armor. He called himself 'Kay-Ka' or something like that. Our phalanx will make quick work of him." Alexander's expression changed to one of fear, "Did you say QUECHUA?!?" "That's what it was. Your Majesty? Are you all right?" With a cynical look he said, "Of course the oracle would hedge her bets. Because the oracle didn't really know who would win." "What are you saying?" "Huayna Capac. The most dangerous commander we have ever faced. But get ready. It's time to show that Oracle who the Invincible One is!" "Might I offer a suggestion? Maybe we don't. Maybe we make like the oracle and keep it ambiguous. Let him lead the way to the final world and beat him there. That would still work, right?" "I don't like it, but we'll see..."
Playoff Game Three Picking Contest Entry Form
Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, July 30th!
Well, really he made it by not doing anything especially stupid. An OK land grab and not attracking the strongest power was enough to get second place. He will be badly out-matched in the championship, though it would be hilarious to see him take the crown.
Scoring was a bit more typical this game but still excellent with an average submission of 10.03 points We conclude Season Six with our normal Friday schedule for next week's game. We have a field of heavy hitters competing for the overall title - who do you have this week?
