Civ4 AI Survivor Season Six

[Brian Shanahan]

Right random.orgs predicitions:

1) Suleiman 2) Louis, FtD) Hatty, Wars) 9, Vic. Date) 267, Vic. Type) Culture.

[civac2]

How did random.org do in the first match?

[Ramkhamhaeng]

How did random.org do in the first match?

Four points, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e...Lw/pubhtml#

[Brian Shanahan]

How did random.org do in the first match?

Four points largely due to the spaceship. Exactly the same as myself, meaning that I can't even beat my own dice rolls.

[Sullla]

For those who missed it, here's the written summary for Game One: https://sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6-1.html

Remember again that we have a Saturday match this week for Game Two - one more day to get the predictions in for the contest!

[BRickAstley]

Thank you for doing the written summaries. I don't have the time to watch the stream live or as a VOD, but enjoy reading about what happened after the fact.

[Commodore]

I will say, Game 1 resulted in a Wild Card game with some actual quality competition.

[Charriu]

Just wait and see how game 2 turns out.

[Sullla]

Community predictions added to the Game Two preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6-2-preview.html






The community spoke loud and clear for this game: they viewed Huayna Capac as an overwhelming favorite to take home first place. This was either a great sign for the Incan leader or an indication that he was completely doomed. The Runner Up category tends to be the hardest to pick and sure enough there was a divided opinion there, with Pacal having a modest lead over Louis and Saladin. The First to Die category had another runaway favorite as the yellow color of Hatshepsut formed a giant Pac Man eating the vote share of the other six leaders. She looked to be pretty screwed on this map and selecting Egypt as First to Die was a logical choice. Finally, Spaceship was the preferred victory outcome for this game as Domination and Culture trailed a good distance behind.

Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!

Mansa da man: So this is a game that can go multiple ways depending on the warmongers. The only assured thing is that Hatty will be dogpiled at some point. Huayna Capac appears to be the most likely winner here between his amazing AI and strong land, although his room to expand is limited and it could be an issue if both Hatty and Suleiman box him in, but I expect a Hatty conquest to take care of that plus we've all seen what he can do with even a little land in the past. Suleiman attacking him would be disastrous though and will throw a wrench in this game. As for second place, Pacal seems to be a good contender with his traits and room for expansion but there is one big issue, he borders Napoleon who will almost certainly attack him over and over and Pacal has neglected units in the past. This leaves Saladin as most likely to benefit from the increased land available, especially if he can box Louis into a corner, and Hatty is getting taken apart making him the most likely second place with a large land area and hence, score. But he's unlikely to win, I see Huayna winning by spaceship or culture before him since Saladin is slow to finish, as evidenced by his one victory so far. Not the best first game for me but let's see how this one goes!

delan: Could flip a coin between Huayna Capac or Pacal, to be honest. Huayna Capac has a lot of nice floodplains in his second ring and I expect him to gobble up Hatty. Pacal has much crummier 2nd ring land but lots of space to expand into, and Louis, with marble at his capital, will likely not contest that territory.

lymond: I'm basing this pick a bit on land and starting location. The W and NW part of the Map is odd and I think one of the 3 AIs there could be boxed in. I'm going to guess that will be Sully, who I'd otherwise might make an underdog pick. I know Napster does not do well in Survivor, but I think he can be the guy to topple HC off his throne this game, as he makes Pacal and what think is a nerfed Sully fresh meat early game. I then expect Nappy to snowball from there and hold the fort for a domination game. I think it will come down to a Nappy vs. HC face-off.

Bobchillingworth: I'm guessing a large majority of contestants are going to join me in picking Huey as the winner, and Hatty as FTD. It makes sense; Hugh has just about everything going for him this game which he could have going for him, and the Hat is likely to draw aggro for peaceweight and/or religious reasons from every civ on the map. I like Pacal's start too, but he has to content with Napoleon and eventually Saladin. Suleiman is in a hideously bad position in terms of strategic resources and land quality in general, but he probably won't rocket to the top of anyone's (s)hit list. Second place competition is wide open IMO, but I think Louis is about as well positioned as anyone, with a generously proportioned corner of the map to himself and no early copper around to temp him or Saladin into stupid early wars with each other.

bellarch: Last season, we saw Huayna Capac, the best leader in the game, pull out a victory (albeit one that was later found to be improbable) from an extremely weak position. This season, he has a great one - his capital is relatively good, and he's right next to a floodplain valley with gold. He also has no stone or marble to distract him with SHINY WONDERS. So he's the clear favorite, right? He eats Hattie early (due to peaceweight differences and possibly a religious divide) and proceeds to conquer his way to domination over a very religiously divided field. Second place has to (in expectation) go to Louis - who will turtle in the corner and build wonders and otherwise basically does nothing, but still will manage to get a high enough score and stay far enough off Huayna's radar to sneak into second place yet again. Pacal is also in a good position, but Nappy is likely to ruin his game - Pacal is probably second-most-likely to be FTD! - and if not, he's likely to end up on opposite religious sides from Huayna and thus die also. Same goes for Saladin. Nappy is too aggressive for his own good and will get himself killed. And Suleiman is in a jungle-choked position AND next to Huayna and thus doomed by border tension and geography to be an also-ran.

Eauxps I. Fourgott: One of these years, we may get Hatty's breakout season. But it sure ain't this year.

ManiaMuse: Hyana will go after Suleiman early but will get backstabbed by Hatty and they will all get dragged into a long war which will slow them all down. Napolean will eat Pacal and get quite big but will fall behind in military tech. The whole world will bussy fighting constant wars with no-one really achieving a breakthrough whilst Louis manages to steal a cultural victory from all the wonders he managed to grab.

Commodore: I would love to bet against the heavy favorite here, but I don't think that map is ever going to let anyone other than HC win. All of his most competent rivals have poison pill strategic Wonder resources and some of them have some of the grossest starts I have seen in any of these games, Sollyman might actually manage to die to barbs, his start is so awful and jungle-choked. All that to be said I still think Hattie is the worst bet to see the ad era. A decently competent field nevertheless won't much matter with this map setup. It is going to be a lark for the incans.

Khnud: Huayna and Saladin will found religions. Hatty will choose one of them, and therefore likely the worst enemy of the other. She'll get squeezed and destroyed by either of the above, or by Napoleon if he can get there first. Huayna will take advantage of his corner position (and lands rich in floodplains) and tech away to a spaceship win, Louis will take advantage of being in the other corner, sneaking in at 2nd place.

Amicalola: Another interesting one that could go in a few directions. I think the two advancing leaders will be Huayna (next to the two weakest leaders + RIVERS) and Louis (great start for his techs, lots of space). I put Huayna first and Louis second, but it could easily go the other way around. As for the others, Napoleon is too insane, with Pacal too likely to be his victim midgame. Saladin meanwhile won't be able to keep up with the voracious seeded techers. Hatshepsut is clearly a dead woman walking, while Suleiman has a dud start and is only 2nd-to-die thanks to poor Hatty (If you think Suleiman has no chance, just wait until you get a look at poor Hannibal in Game 8!). Cultural victory because it's what Louis, Huayna, or Pacal would likely choose, and they feel like the 3 possible victors.

Dagoth Gares: The Old World won't be winning this Columbian Exchange.

smithy: Welcome to Game Two: The Hereditary Rule Special (subtitle- please give us better winners than last week). In this game no less than four of the leaders are sharing a mutual love of this early civic, how could this pan out for the game itself? Not a part of the HR crowd is Hatty- she instead loves her Organised Religion. This could be handy as whilst she is unlikely to get a religion of her own, these religious types do like their big, ornate state funeral ceremonies. I would suggest they start Organising one forthwith. Saladin doesn't care for HR, he wants a religion of his own. That's it. He is going to sit in his forest capital and sulk until he gets one. Given his terrible starting techs and the amount of beakers he will spend fruitlessly chasing this religion by the time he gets it and sits back content in his plains hill Dunsinane do not be surprised if the forest begins to move... Pacal is in the HR gang! He is so happy! His mother never let him be in a gang before. This game should be a cakewalk- build a few cities, all the wonders and breeze into the playoffs! Noone would possibly dare attack him when he's part of the biggest, toughest gang, right? Guys? Louis has a problem- he has great land, the most space, and HR buddies, unfortunately those buddies also like HIS wonders far too much. The marble will help for sure, but Pacal has all the stone. At some point Louis will have to put on his best silly wig and go explain the subtleties of gang hierarchy to the brat. Sillyman has rubbish land, is hemmed in by jungle, and cant declare at pleased. He will sit obediently in his kennel and bark at whoever HC tells him to. Huayna is feeling pretty cocky- he knows he's good at this game, HR is good, he has a tame northern guarddog and to the east an Egyptian crumple zone. The only worry is: Napolean does not like HR. He is a child of the revolution. He has great land, strategic and happiness resources, and plenty of riverside commerce- the trifecta that was crucial last week. He could easily snowball to the win and destroy all this monarchist nonsense, though since he is an AI warmonger and not the real person he is far more likely to just attack early and wreck someones game- who will he attack? Everyone, obviously. But who first? The whole game rests on that decision.

RefSteel: All three of Egypt, Inca, and the Ottomans have visible AH resources in their capitals, which will be backed up by horses - also in their capitals - when the tech comes in. (Same is true of Louis, but he's off in a corner playing solitaire, so I'll ignore him.) In the fantasy land where my predictions come true, Hatty and Suly share a religion and consume Capac in a hilarious chariotfest of a war, with Hatty gaining most of the spoils thanks to her UU. Brother and sister in arms, the two victors proceed to cripple or destroy the infighting-weakened AIs across the rest of the map, culminating in a friendly race to Alpha Centauri which Hatty wins in spite of turning on the culture slider just before finishing her last spaceship tech, just barely crossing the finish line thanks to research from Representation specialists. I did say this was a fantasy, didn't I?

eyser24: I am making an obvious prediction this time, but Capac has genuine advantages here. I like that flood plains river next to him with the gold, and I think he will expand towards Hatty rather than the Ottomans past the jungle. Both of his neighbors seem weak to me. Hatty will have great culture and may crowd Capac in, but he is aggressive enough to attack and I think conflict between them is very likely to take place early on because of that border tension, and whenever it does Hatty will be wiped out. I am less sure of how Pacal will do, but I do think Napoleon and him will definitely fight, and it will hurt Pacal enough that he will not win. I think Pacal is the most likely first to die after Hatty, but am not brave enough to choose him for that. I prefer Louis's position for second place. I like Saladin's location, but he just always get a slow start. Louis being cultural will help him gain a lot of land there while also being in the corner, with a buffer away from Capac (or Napoleon if he has a good conquest this game).

BohemianSpoonyBard: Visit Latin America before Latin America visits you!!!

Game Two Picking Contest Entry Form

We have a rare Saturday game this week at the usual noon EST starting time. Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Saturday, May 15th!

[Brian Shanahan]

Wacca, wacca, wacca