Community predictions added to the Game Six preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6-6-preview.html
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Game Six was another match that the community perceived to be completely wide open. With a field of generally underwhelming leaders, almost all of whom had extremely low peace weights, there was a sense that this was anyone's game to win. Kublai Khan and Cyrus received the most points in the community although neither of them could exceed a third of the total votes. Both the first place and second place pie charts were a rainbow of different colors representing all seven of the leaders. The only two leaders that lacked real support were Churchill and De Gaulle; unsurprisingly, they topped the list of the leaders expected to be First to Die on this map. Churchill as First to Die was about the closest thing to a consensus in the community. As for the victory condition, Domination led Spaceship by roughly a 2:1 margin. We haven't had any Cultural or Diplomatic victories thus far in Season Six - would this be the game to break the trend?
Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!
Amicalola: Talk about being the best of the worst. Kublai Khan's start is absolutely gimped (zero non-capital food). Churchill's got a terrible diplomatic situation, but a corner spot with the most space. Cyrus has a tonne of food at the capital, but is next to two leaders (Boudica/Khan) who can wreck his game at any time. The two worst leaders (De Gaulle/Churchill) are the ones with the advantage of anemic Kublai, yet how likely are they to use it? What a mess! Ultimately I think Tokugawa comes out ahead - he's best placed to take advantage of a midgame Churchill dogpile, and he also has a nice capital + space. Cyrus for second, only because everyone else is so terrible. But honestly, this game could go 10 different ways. Finally, spaceship because even though this game has a bunch of crazies, they're predisposed to like each other. Diplomatic is probably a good pick here, too.
Donaithnen: Hoping that since Kublai Khan is sandwiched between De Gaulle and Churchill that De Gaulle will get off to an incompetent start, get gobbled by Kublai Khan, who can than pivot and consume Churchill as well, while the east has more of a stalemate between more evenly matched Civs. Hoping that Tokugawa will live up to his more isolationist reputation and quietly build up to the point where he will outlast the others as Kublai Khan expands eastward.
Duizhang_Lu: Well, the only thing I'm confident of is that whoever emerges the winner of this world of warmongers will do so atop a pyramid of skulls. BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GODS
NotSpamBot: Genghis Khan has Copper in his capital and easy access to Horses. Which means he will declare an early war. And his obvius target is Cyrus. I think that conflict will stalemate, but it will ruin Persia. Enter Kublei Khan. Who is next to the diplomatically isolated and unimpressive Churchill for him to feast upon. Further, he has a partner in crime for this attack in Tokugawa and possibly even De Gaulle. Now, after the Genghis Khan impales himself upon Cyrus and the ineviatble demise of England this world should get divided among the religions of Kublei and Boudica and uh... I have no idea how that will turn out. Probably more wars. Of course, all of this analysis is irrelevant in the face Churchill and this season being this season. I honestly somewhat expect him to run away with the game here. I can't see how, but I still expect it to happen.
delan: This map has no easy answers. I hate Kublai Khan's seafood start without easy access to metals, but none of his immediate neighbours are the type to take advantage of that and kill him first. Cyrus has double wet corn, Imperialistic trait, and some room, but both his neighbours are the type to throw hands. Churchill has an incredible capital and if literally any other leader had that capital, I would pick them to win, but Churchill's peace weight situation is so dire and his AI personality so bland that I cannot believe in him. Genghis Khan has a very nice capital, Imperialistic trait, and lots of land to start, the kind of setup where he could steamroll over Cyrus and then dominate the map, but betting on these warmongers is such a feast or famine proposition. Tokugawa has a decent capital without the starting techs to truly exploit them. He also has a lot of land to expand into. He also has the wolverine Temujin as a neighbour. De Gaulle has a mediocre personality to match his mediocre capital, but peace weight could insulate him from early aggression, and the way this season's been going, de Gaulle will probably win the whole thing by Diplomacy. I know Boudica's going to get a religion. I know that! Otherwise, gonna flip some coins here and make my picks on that basis.
Dagoth Gares: Anyone familiar with the Earth18 scenario knows how big a threat Cyrus can be. Khan the Younger comes in second, like always, and DG finds himself in an untenable position between him and Boudica....Which of course means that what will ACTUALLY happen is a Temujin/Toku Diplo victory, with Kublai FTD, because this season is adamant about making zero sense.
LinkMarioSamus: Here's a fun fact: This is our first game this season with no one who was in the playoffs last season. While I have zero confidence in any pick I make from here on out, I'm going with Tokugawa to win because he has good traits for this field full of nutjobs and has proven himself successful in this kind of match before, plus Churchill is nearby for an easy snack. For 2nd I'll go with Genghis Khan in the hope that he hamstrings Cyrus early and eventually wears him down. I will straight-up admit that part of it is I think they're the two most underrated leaders in this line-up and that they have faced many leaders in the past who did well this season, notably Bismarck, Frederick, Shaka, and Napoleon among others. The other leaders will, uh, just squabble amongst each other while Tokugawa and Genghis Khan get all the prime real estate? Like I said, I have no real idea how this game will play out and this is the best prediction I can come up with. Maybe Kublai Khan's and Cyrus's wonder emphasis will do them in? I considered De Gaulle but he doesn't have the easy conquest opportunities Tokugawa and Genghis Khan have, plus honestly there is no way he deserves 9 points.
Colors: The only thing I know is that everyone is gonna hate Churchill, who stinks and will likely fold when they start attacking him. After that it's anyone's guess, but I like Kublai's potential for a good landgrab + land from England, and I think Cyrus is the strongest leader in the field.
Bernn: This game very well could be decided in the first 100 turns - with a field this aggressive, just about anyone could snowball hard from a single kill. The biggest question is who collapses first. Churchill is a pretty natural FTD choice because of the heavy peaceweight difference, but his Protective trait plus the guaranteed copper source will make him tough to chew through. Though I'm sure at least one of these warmongers will try their luck. Instead, I'm looking in Cyrus's direction. That double wet corn is an incredibly lush start, but I worry the stone could lead to an early Masonry and a bunch of questionable wonder builds when he really should be working on settlers instead. He has copper, but it's in a somewhat awkward spot and if Genghis Khan strikes him from the south his metal supply could easily get cut off. And even outside of an early attack, he could potentially get boxed in after Boudica drops a holy city between the two of them. The poor guy just can't catch a break - one way or another, I think he's going to be the first to leave this game.
Guanidine: Competent leaders in solid starting positions? Could this be the first normal game of the season? If Kublai can grab that southern iron, he has a chance to kill a neighbor or two and win this thing - and I would prefer a leader far from him then for second place.
Zigzagzone: I have this nagging feeling that I'm gonna back another leader that will disappoint me, but I just like Tokus land. There's just so much river commerce, and with a lot of competent war mongers around, I'm just not sure that anybody can run away with the game from conquering. And Toku sits just right to gain from Bismarks peace weight / incompetence death, and then tech better than the rest (not that hard!). Hopefully, Genghis is just friendly enough by peace weight that this can work out. Famous last words...
Fluffball: This is another game that looks totally up in the air. I could see most of these leaders winning, but I think I have to go with the 2 guys closest to the weak and vulnerable Churchill. KK for first since he can also probably run over dG anytime he chooses. Toku will get battered by Genghis, but he seems to have enough room, will absorb Churchill territory almost no matter what, and he has the best units in the game.
Keler: De Gaulle is the best AI here when it comes to economy and teching ahead, a balanced AI with wonder spam and militaristic enough but I suspect he gets polytheism first and Boudica gets meditation so he might be in race to first to die here with Churchill I think. Cyrus looks terrible with land, he will probably die 1v1 to anyone but depends on Genghis chosing to attack or not. I guess Kublai will go to wildcard, Tokugawa has enough land to sit down and win while bodyguarding himself against Genghis who will be left behind in tech, then Boudica sits down with a bigger land than Kublai coming as runner up position.
eyser24: Cyrus's start would be really good for a human to implement an immortal rush with a few very strong and fast growing cities, but its not so great for an AI. Kublai's start is so bad that I don't see him being much of a factor this game. Not only is it a fishing start, but there is no other food nearby. Even worse, he can't share any of that Capital fish with any of his other cities! I think Tokugawa has one of the better starts and has very poor neighbors who will definitely die to someone this game, and he has a great chance of taking advantage of this. First to die is really tough on this map, but I think Churchill is still the best bet just because he is the most likely victim of a dogpile. I am really worried Boudica won't get that iron, but as long as she does I think she will be second. Was tempted to choose Cyrus as first to die because I think he will be the target of a strong Boudica, but I still think overall Churchill is more likely for that.
Delta-07: The quality of the land is equally bad for all the leaders, so I don't think there is a clear favourite in this game. Every leader is kind of screwed. Kulai starts with a slow seafood and gold in the north that has no food nearby. De Gaulle and Cyrus have no river and thus no commerce river tiles. Genghis Khan has a desert in the north and the sea in the south. Boudica is almost already sitting in the tundra and her metal resource might get claimed by De Gaulle. I like the land of Churchill and Toku the most, but since Churchill is such an incompetent AI, I see a chance for Toku here if doesn't get dragged down by Genghis Khan. In the last game it was the good land that won Bismrack the game, so I pick the leadrer with best land: Toku. I still see some potential for Kublai that he might snipe a space ship victory.
Slashin': Upon reconsideration, I really do think boudica here has a golden opportunity to leverage her position here. A semi isolated start along a riverside capital and flood plains to keep her economy afloat early game, while also being the only mysticism starter means it’s good odds she founds a religion and spreads it to her neighbors.she also has quite a bit of room for expansion, and I think her inability to declare war at pleased is going to be a real boon here as her neighbors get bogged down in while she expands and builds up a moderate infrastructure base to leverage her isolated position. Temujin is likely to bog down in a war with Cyrus, and a copper capital could very well mean a snowball, but it’s more likely he gets bogged down and brings the Persians down with him. Toku then is the most reasonable second placer to me, as he has a multitude of opportunities for expansion by teaming up on Churchill or exploiting a weakened Temujin. A boudica win to me makes space the most likely victory condition, but I’ll hedge my bets on this one and go for domination in case another one of these insane warmongers come out on top.
BohemianSpoonyBard: Tokugawa is sure bet because he has power of God and Anime on his side.
Game Six Picking Contest Entry Form
Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, June 18th!
Game Six was another match that the community perceived to be completely wide open. With a field of generally underwhelming leaders, almost all of whom had extremely low peace weights, there was a sense that this was anyone's game to win. Kublai Khan and Cyrus received the most points in the community although neither of them could exceed a third of the total votes. Both the first place and second place pie charts were a rainbow of different colors representing all seven of the leaders. The only two leaders that lacked real support were Churchill and De Gaulle; unsurprisingly, they topped the list of the leaders expected to be First to Die on this map. Churchill as First to Die was about the closest thing to a consensus in the community. As for the victory condition, Domination led Spaceship by roughly a 2:1 margin. We haven't had any Cultural or Diplomatic victories thus far in Season Six - would this be the game to break the trend?
Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!
Amicalola: Talk about being the best of the worst. Kublai Khan's start is absolutely gimped (zero non-capital food). Churchill's got a terrible diplomatic situation, but a corner spot with the most space. Cyrus has a tonne of food at the capital, but is next to two leaders (Boudica/Khan) who can wreck his game at any time. The two worst leaders (De Gaulle/Churchill) are the ones with the advantage of anemic Kublai, yet how likely are they to use it? What a mess! Ultimately I think Tokugawa comes out ahead - he's best placed to take advantage of a midgame Churchill dogpile, and he also has a nice capital + space. Cyrus for second, only because everyone else is so terrible. But honestly, this game could go 10 different ways. Finally, spaceship because even though this game has a bunch of crazies, they're predisposed to like each other. Diplomatic is probably a good pick here, too.
Donaithnen: Hoping that since Kublai Khan is sandwiched between De Gaulle and Churchill that De Gaulle will get off to an incompetent start, get gobbled by Kublai Khan, who can than pivot and consume Churchill as well, while the east has more of a stalemate between more evenly matched Civs. Hoping that Tokugawa will live up to his more isolationist reputation and quietly build up to the point where he will outlast the others as Kublai Khan expands eastward.
Duizhang_Lu: Well, the only thing I'm confident of is that whoever emerges the winner of this world of warmongers will do so atop a pyramid of skulls. BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GODS
NotSpamBot: Genghis Khan has Copper in his capital and easy access to Horses. Which means he will declare an early war. And his obvius target is Cyrus. I think that conflict will stalemate, but it will ruin Persia. Enter Kublei Khan. Who is next to the diplomatically isolated and unimpressive Churchill for him to feast upon. Further, he has a partner in crime for this attack in Tokugawa and possibly even De Gaulle. Now, after the Genghis Khan impales himself upon Cyrus and the ineviatble demise of England this world should get divided among the religions of Kublei and Boudica and uh... I have no idea how that will turn out. Probably more wars. Of course, all of this analysis is irrelevant in the face Churchill and this season being this season. I honestly somewhat expect him to run away with the game here. I can't see how, but I still expect it to happen.
delan: This map has no easy answers. I hate Kublai Khan's seafood start without easy access to metals, but none of his immediate neighbours are the type to take advantage of that and kill him first. Cyrus has double wet corn, Imperialistic trait, and some room, but both his neighbours are the type to throw hands. Churchill has an incredible capital and if literally any other leader had that capital, I would pick them to win, but Churchill's peace weight situation is so dire and his AI personality so bland that I cannot believe in him. Genghis Khan has a very nice capital, Imperialistic trait, and lots of land to start, the kind of setup where he could steamroll over Cyrus and then dominate the map, but betting on these warmongers is such a feast or famine proposition. Tokugawa has a decent capital without the starting techs to truly exploit them. He also has a lot of land to expand into. He also has the wolverine Temujin as a neighbour. De Gaulle has a mediocre personality to match his mediocre capital, but peace weight could insulate him from early aggression, and the way this season's been going, de Gaulle will probably win the whole thing by Diplomacy. I know Boudica's going to get a religion. I know that! Otherwise, gonna flip some coins here and make my picks on that basis.
Dagoth Gares: Anyone familiar with the Earth18 scenario knows how big a threat Cyrus can be. Khan the Younger comes in second, like always, and DG finds himself in an untenable position between him and Boudica....Which of course means that what will ACTUALLY happen is a Temujin/Toku Diplo victory, with Kublai FTD, because this season is adamant about making zero sense.
LinkMarioSamus: Here's a fun fact: This is our first game this season with no one who was in the playoffs last season. While I have zero confidence in any pick I make from here on out, I'm going with Tokugawa to win because he has good traits for this field full of nutjobs and has proven himself successful in this kind of match before, plus Churchill is nearby for an easy snack. For 2nd I'll go with Genghis Khan in the hope that he hamstrings Cyrus early and eventually wears him down. I will straight-up admit that part of it is I think they're the two most underrated leaders in this line-up and that they have faced many leaders in the past who did well this season, notably Bismarck, Frederick, Shaka, and Napoleon among others. The other leaders will, uh, just squabble amongst each other while Tokugawa and Genghis Khan get all the prime real estate? Like I said, I have no real idea how this game will play out and this is the best prediction I can come up with. Maybe Kublai Khan's and Cyrus's wonder emphasis will do them in? I considered De Gaulle but he doesn't have the easy conquest opportunities Tokugawa and Genghis Khan have, plus honestly there is no way he deserves 9 points.
Colors: The only thing I know is that everyone is gonna hate Churchill, who stinks and will likely fold when they start attacking him. After that it's anyone's guess, but I like Kublai's potential for a good landgrab + land from England, and I think Cyrus is the strongest leader in the field.
Bernn: This game very well could be decided in the first 100 turns - with a field this aggressive, just about anyone could snowball hard from a single kill. The biggest question is who collapses first. Churchill is a pretty natural FTD choice because of the heavy peaceweight difference, but his Protective trait plus the guaranteed copper source will make him tough to chew through. Though I'm sure at least one of these warmongers will try their luck. Instead, I'm looking in Cyrus's direction. That double wet corn is an incredibly lush start, but I worry the stone could lead to an early Masonry and a bunch of questionable wonder builds when he really should be working on settlers instead. He has copper, but it's in a somewhat awkward spot and if Genghis Khan strikes him from the south his metal supply could easily get cut off. And even outside of an early attack, he could potentially get boxed in after Boudica drops a holy city between the two of them. The poor guy just can't catch a break - one way or another, I think he's going to be the first to leave this game.
Guanidine: Competent leaders in solid starting positions? Could this be the first normal game of the season? If Kublai can grab that southern iron, he has a chance to kill a neighbor or two and win this thing - and I would prefer a leader far from him then for second place.
Zigzagzone: I have this nagging feeling that I'm gonna back another leader that will disappoint me, but I just like Tokus land. There's just so much river commerce, and with a lot of competent war mongers around, I'm just not sure that anybody can run away with the game from conquering. And Toku sits just right to gain from Bismarks peace weight / incompetence death, and then tech better than the rest (not that hard!). Hopefully, Genghis is just friendly enough by peace weight that this can work out. Famous last words...
Fluffball: This is another game that looks totally up in the air. I could see most of these leaders winning, but I think I have to go with the 2 guys closest to the weak and vulnerable Churchill. KK for first since he can also probably run over dG anytime he chooses. Toku will get battered by Genghis, but he seems to have enough room, will absorb Churchill territory almost no matter what, and he has the best units in the game.
Keler: De Gaulle is the best AI here when it comes to economy and teching ahead, a balanced AI with wonder spam and militaristic enough but I suspect he gets polytheism first and Boudica gets meditation so he might be in race to first to die here with Churchill I think. Cyrus looks terrible with land, he will probably die 1v1 to anyone but depends on Genghis chosing to attack or not. I guess Kublai will go to wildcard, Tokugawa has enough land to sit down and win while bodyguarding himself against Genghis who will be left behind in tech, then Boudica sits down with a bigger land than Kublai coming as runner up position.
eyser24: Cyrus's start would be really good for a human to implement an immortal rush with a few very strong and fast growing cities, but its not so great for an AI. Kublai's start is so bad that I don't see him being much of a factor this game. Not only is it a fishing start, but there is no other food nearby. Even worse, he can't share any of that Capital fish with any of his other cities! I think Tokugawa has one of the better starts and has very poor neighbors who will definitely die to someone this game, and he has a great chance of taking advantage of this. First to die is really tough on this map, but I think Churchill is still the best bet just because he is the most likely victim of a dogpile. I am really worried Boudica won't get that iron, but as long as she does I think she will be second. Was tempted to choose Cyrus as first to die because I think he will be the target of a strong Boudica, but I still think overall Churchill is more likely for that.
Delta-07: The quality of the land is equally bad for all the leaders, so I don't think there is a clear favourite in this game. Every leader is kind of screwed. Kulai starts with a slow seafood and gold in the north that has no food nearby. De Gaulle and Cyrus have no river and thus no commerce river tiles. Genghis Khan has a desert in the north and the sea in the south. Boudica is almost already sitting in the tundra and her metal resource might get claimed by De Gaulle. I like the land of Churchill and Toku the most, but since Churchill is such an incompetent AI, I see a chance for Toku here if doesn't get dragged down by Genghis Khan. In the last game it was the good land that won Bismrack the game, so I pick the leadrer with best land: Toku. I still see some potential for Kublai that he might snipe a space ship victory.
Slashin': Upon reconsideration, I really do think boudica here has a golden opportunity to leverage her position here. A semi isolated start along a riverside capital and flood plains to keep her economy afloat early game, while also being the only mysticism starter means it’s good odds she founds a religion and spreads it to her neighbors.she also has quite a bit of room for expansion, and I think her inability to declare war at pleased is going to be a real boon here as her neighbors get bogged down in while she expands and builds up a moderate infrastructure base to leverage her isolated position. Temujin is likely to bog down in a war with Cyrus, and a copper capital could very well mean a snowball, but it’s more likely he gets bogged down and brings the Persians down with him. Toku then is the most reasonable second placer to me, as he has a multitude of opportunities for expansion by teaming up on Churchill or exploiting a weakened Temujin. A boudica win to me makes space the most likely victory condition, but I’ll hedge my bets on this one and go for domination in case another one of these insane warmongers come out on top.
BohemianSpoonyBard: Tokugawa is sure bet because he has power of God and Anime on his side.
Game Six Picking Contest Entry Form
Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, June 18th!
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