Posts: 6,470
Threads: 62
Joined: Sep 2006
80% likelihood economy will be better than today.
15% likelihood it will be worse than today or roughly the same, but have recovered during 2010-2013 and then dropped again. Basically I'm saying there is a 15% chance of a new recession during pretty much any given year just by playing the averages.
5% likelihood the economy will be either much worse than today or have never recovered any more than it has so far. This would be a reversal of ~100 years of business cycle patterns, but we've never had the kind of fundamental dept/spending issues we have now before either.