Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[oledavy]

Nevermind, examining my screenshots, he built at least 1 Hoplite. Perhaps that's the plan.

Edit: No he didn't I made an error. I assumed the 15 str. of the capital meant he had a 25 strength hoplite. However, I forgot that the palace adds 3 str. and the district adds 2. So no hoplites.

[Molach]

Build 1 unit, all cities gain magical strenght boost. So 1 good unit in the empire is good.

And as a ded lurker..it might not be as stupid. He probably has potential strenght with his gold and upgradability to feel safe. Free gold +"nothing davy can really do about it" + "last game showed I need to be proactive".

Of course, good opportunity to show him now that sometimes you should let a sleeping tiger lie...

One thing about city states, conquering them is probably almost always good. Apart from getting a free developed city and exp from attacking - you obviously get free culture...I think suzerain bonus is not to be relied on - people can and will try to steal it away. Any player who killed their nearby CS will need somewhere to put those envoys. 

I suppose people can save em up too, then rush all in, declare war and levy their troops. Might just be enough to overcome a defensive position.

So yeah. Cartage is okay, others are better off dead imo.

[oledavy]

Build 1 unit, all cities gain magical strenght boost. So 1 good unit in the empire is good.

And as a ded lurker..it might not be as stupid. He probably has potential strenght with his gold and upgradability to feel safe. Free gold +"nothing davy can really do about it" + "last game showed I need to be proactive".

Of course, good opportunity to show him now that sometimes you should let a sleeping tiger lie...

One thing about city states, conquering them is probably almost always good. Apart from getting a free developed city and exp from attacking - you obviously get free culture...I think suzerain bonus is not to be relied on - people can and will try to steal it away. Any player who killed their nearby CS will need somewhere to put those envoys. 

I suppose people can save em up too, then rush all in, declare war and levy their troops. Might just be enough to overcome a defensive position.

So yeah. Cartage is okay, others are better off dead imo.

I didn't realize I had you on board, glad to have you ded-lurking!

Yeah, I realize that I am almost certainly jumping at shadows here. My head has been spinning around this twist all day, but realistically, this shouldn't change my game plan much, and should just reaffirm to me the need to be ready for his GG rush and get swordsmen ASAP. I'm just especially paranoid about this sort of thing because of how Civ5 PBEM 5 ended for me, happily sandboxing and thinking I was rush-proof until I was attacked and eliminated. I've been very determined that it would not repeat itself here, and opening yet another Civ game to find a sub turn 50 DOW caused me to freak out for a few hours. I am thinking with significantly more clarity now however. 

Regarding your specific points: 

I agree, the issue is that the best unit I can build without an encampment + horse/iron is a heavy chariot, which will take the defensive strength of my cities from 10 to 18. While I'm not ruling that out at this point, it would be a delay to finishing mathematics and getting to political philosophy. I can currently build Hoplites, and they would take me from 10 -> 15, but without the Agoge production bonus, they're pretty expensive at 65 hammers (versus the 26.7 hammers each warrior costs). So yeah, I'm aware of it, just none of them bring the strength of cities up much in comparison to horsemen/swordsmen, which is what I feel he would be coming at me with. If he's coming at me with Swordsmen, I can afford to wait until I have swordsmen of my own to buff city strength. However, if he's coming at me with Horsemen or Hoplites, I need to get one of these units as soon as possible. 

Your point that this is an opportunistic strike, while sitting on a few warriors to upgrade when he finishes Iron Working (assuming he has iron at the second city), is probably correct. He has an estimated 330 gold at the moment. I'm concerned he's going to send a horseman at Schuyler, which would be difficult to fend off. However, waiting to upgrade swordsmen is much more logical, but by the same token is also the most distant possible attack of the three unit types he could employ. 

I don't like not knowing what he'll be building though. If it's Hoplites, then warriors/archers are sufficient, and I needn't worry. If it's horsemen, I should bang out a couple Hoplites, and I'll be okay. If it's swordsmen, then I just stick to my current plan to get my iron/iron working/encampment online asap and be ready for his assault. Of course, with his Encampment rush accelerating the date of his first GG and the possibility of iron at his second city, I'm facing the reality that the rush may be here around t60 as opposed to t70. If that's the case, I cannot complete mathematics and Iron Working in that time, and would have to shelve Petra for now - which is what I'm currently leaning towards doing. I also really need to get into gold generating civics to get that iron tile inside Hong Kong's borders and be able to upgrade at least one warrior. 

Of course, this all might be moot if he's not actually planning on invading me, it would make me feel foolish regarding all this hand wringing. However, it would seem prudent to assume that he will.  Additionally, as stated a few posts ago, I would like the capability to strike back and take revenge for this opportunistic strike. 

I will definitely be keeping Carthage around and probably Seoul. But yeah, I will definitely be killing HK and BA if I can spare the troops. 

Anyway, thank you for the advice! I am going to stop obsessing over this latest turn of events for today, clear my mind, and see what awaits me on t44. I should have plenty of time to play it tomorrow morning and make more circumspect choices regarding city builds and research targets. I apologize to my lurkers for the rather frantic series of posts today, I just don't like surprises and having my plans messed with   We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[SadGit]

Im not a ded-lurker but I think I have spotted the flaw in your strategies. You keep building with sand and watching it crumble. Now what you should do is add plenty of blood as an adhesive, and then try to build your throne. As an added bonus all the killing will provide you with handy skulls for it along the way. Hope this helps.

[oledavy]

Im not a ded-lurker but I think I have spotted the flaw in your strategies. You keep building with sand and watching it crumble. Now what you should do is add plenty of blood as an adhesive, and then try to build your throne. As an added bonus all the killing will provide you with handy skulls for it along the way. Hope this helps.

Blood for the Blood God?

[Zero_1627]

Now what you should do is add plenty of blood as an adhesive, and then try to build your throne. As an added bonus all the killing will provide you with handy skulls for it along the way.

Blood for the Blood God?

You sure You picked OLORAM for a pantheon? Wasn't there a small script or eight-pointed-stars decorations?

Also: Blood for the bloody reeds and marshes! Skulls for the Throne of OLORAM!

[Zero_1627]

It seems something has to go out of Your plan - and that something should be, I think, Petra. You simply can't afford such monetary (tiles) and hammer investment into what's basically a luxury, however shiny.

I just don't like surprises and having my plans messed with

Every perfect plan gets messed up when the enemy arrives. That's why he's called the enemy!

[kjn]

BTW, we lurkers want lots of screenies and annotations of the invasion of Hong Kong!

[oledavy]

It seems something has to go out of Your plan - and that something should be, I think, Petra. You simply can't afford such monetary (tiles) and hammer investment into what's basically a luxury, however shiny.

I just don't like surprises and having my plans messed with

Every perfect plan gets messed up when the enemy arrives. That's why he's called the enemy!

I actually have adapted my Petra plan, and will still be going for it. I will be starting it about 5 turns later though, but I'll be saving 100 science and making sure my defensive position is secure. More on that in a moment. 

And fair point 

BTW, we lurkers want lots of screenies and annotations of the invasion of Hong Kong!

But of course, I would never disappoint 

Anyway, 

Turn 44

So, I went to bed with a rough plan in mind, based on the war dec from Archduke being nothing more than an opportunistic strike. 

Opened the turn.



State workforce in. Let's see what Archduke has been up to. 



His power went down between turns....although that was almost certainly my archer hitting his scout last turn. The bottom line is, I'm at 160 power, he's at 58. I'm just going to say he's very lucky my army is so far away from him at the moment. On the plus side, he hasn't met Hong Kong, so he won't get the notification that I went to war in the north. For all he knows, I'm marching on Mykenes right now. 

Moving my archer south revealed nothing either. 



I'm seriously considering moving 1 SW to the jungled hill and starting to bombard his encampment for XP. The best thing of all, he won't be able to see me unless he has a unit there. 

Meanwhile, in the east. 



His scout, as surmised, does not have the double move on hill promotion. He may still try to set up to pillage the campus, but more than likely he will just run. He will if he's smart, as it will force me to keep a unit in the area to defend the campus and the 4 science per turn it provides. 

Meanwhile: 



I think Singaboy is assaulting that encampment. I am also wondering where the horseman went. I would like it to be gone, so I have one less hostile force to worry about pillaging the campus. 

Also of note, Seoul finished it's granary at long last and started a campus. 




I'll have more thoughts on my war with Archduke and my plans going forward towards the end of the report, but I know you're all here for blood, sooooo.....



The last pre-war shot of Hong Kong, with all the moves I would make penciled in. One notable thing is the worker they produced, with 2 charges left. If Hong Kong were a human player, I would snipe the worker on t1 to prevent them from chopping out a last unit. However, the AI will just move it into the city center. Also, good guy Hong Kong, building a worker for me and making my build orders for the coming turns easier.  Also, there's 4/6 farms for feudalism!

The most dangerous unit here is the archer. Unforunately, I didn't get both my warriors on the same side of the river as it, or I might have killed it this turn. I can't say I'm unhappy with how things turned out though. Anyway, without further ado. 



One thing of note: 



Singaboy has an envoy here, making my task a little bit harder and I'm sure not ingratiating myself to him. On the other hand, it was certainly earned through a city-state quest, and probably a laughably easy one at that (Early Empire Inspiration?), so he can't be too annoyed. 

Here was the situation at the end of the turn: 



I should be able to kill 2 units next turn for a cool 17 culture. Not having a third archer for this attack sucks, but I can still win it pretty easily without them - especially if I'm willing to pillage farms to regain health. I was hesitant to do it earlier, but since I have a free worker to capture here, I can easily repair the land after the assault. 

Finally, here's the civic swap I did: 



Now my GPT is not atrocious anymore. Opted not to slot in Agoge. Keeping in Corvee this turn, and slotting in Colonization next turn. Early Empire is technically two turns away, but I anticipate finishing it next turn by killing units. 

I need to make sure I queue up Political Philosophy before I start killing units, as if I kill a unit when I've completed a civic, the culture is wasted. I'm not even positive it will properly log the overflow. For that reason, I will probably kill the archer first then the warrior to make sure the minimum amount of culture is wasted. 

Anyway, so plans: 

I overreacted to the potential of a rush in the next ten turns from Archduke last turn, as it appears he has not the intention or the capability. My chief fear remains that he will appear at the gates of Schuyler in the next 10 turns with an assortment of horses/swords/warriors, but that possibility appears pretty remote at the moment. 

Still, I suppose I should thank him, because his attack hit home for me just how quickly old units + gold + tech can be leveraged into a nearly unstoppable army. He got me counting tiles and expanded my mind to the possibilities and the advantages an encampment rush grants. With this in mind, he forced an adaptation to my plan which I think will be extremely beneficial. 

First off, I didn't switch into Agoge and am not sending a warrior down there. I thought archers would not properly garrison the city for +10 strength, but they do as it turns out. With that in mind, my single archer can hold off any 1-2 unit probe. An archer in the city gets two free shots at approaching units due to the jungles and the Ohai River stopping movement. Then, Schuyler will have 25 strength (10 + 10 for garrison unit + 5 for being behind a river). Without the ability to put me under siege, I can hold out for quite some time with one unit against any 1-2 unit reconnaissance attempt. Additionally, my other archer will ideally be here soon. 

However, his GG will be out sooner than I thought, and I need my cities to be at a strength comparable to swordsmen and horsemen by then, about 15 turns out. Teching mathematics and then iron working was not going to cut it, especially since the pillaging of the trade route meant I no longer had enough gold to remotely consider buying the iron tile in. Furthermore, it still counted on the encampment being built and having enough gold to upgrade a warrior, things my economy is not capable of supporting in the time frame I need it in. 

The solution? 

We're going to cram out a horseman instead. This has the advantage of allowing me to stick to my previous expansion plan, as my 3rd city grabs the horses to my west. That, combined with the soon to be pastured horses by Schuyler will give me two horse resources and allow me to build them everywhere. Furthermore, I can definitely tech military tradition after Political Philosophy, get the 50% production boost civic, and quickly cram out a single horseman as soon as I get the resource online. 

QUESTION: Do chops benefit from production modifiers? 

So, you'll notice I left both workers in production this turn. Here's the rough sequence of events in the coming turns: 

 - Switch to Colonization, Hamilton finishes worker.
 - Hamilton starts settler
 - Hamilton Worker: Farm Rice (For Eureka), Plantation Cotton, Chop Forest
 - Schuyler Worker: Quarry Stone, Pasture Horse, Plantation Coffee
 - Captured Worker: Pasture 3rd City's Horse, Chop Schuyler Forest

After the worker finished in Schuyler, it will go into an encampment and then walls. The improvements and a chop will dramatically speed up both. 

Tech Path: HBR -> Irrigation -> Masonry -> Mathematics

After Hamilton finishes the settler, it will get out a trader, who will immedietly go to Hong Kong and make a TR back home to speed the return of my army. Next, the chop will go into the CH, taking it down to about a 4t build. Then, another trader, who will go to Schuyler and make a trade route back to Hamilton (both now worth 2/2/2). The last trader may be interrupted by the horseman. I will try to get into the policy that gives +2 gold on trade routes ASAP when I get the second one out. The completion of the encampment at Schuyler will give me the third district needed for the Mathematics boost and save me 100 science (about 8.5 turns worth at this point), and at that point I will begin Petra in Hong Kong. 

At this point (~15 turns out), I'll have my army back south around Schuyler, a Horseman, roads stretching from Hong Kong to Schuyler, Petra started, walls under construction in Schuyler, and 3 districts. My economy will be in incredible shape, and I'll be set to either repel an invasion from Archduke, or go take Buenos Aires. At this point I will begin targeting Iron Working/Apprenticeship. Also, between the trade routes, Conscription, two plantations, and a commercial hub, I'll be in good shape on gold again. At this point, I may try to bang out a market to get the first GM on lock for me, but that's pretty far in the future. 

So, this plan preserves just about everything I want to do at increased risk of missing Petra and a longer time table for Iron Working, but overall I think strikes the best balance between economic growth, expansion, long-term planning, and defense. 

Archduke's going to get away with his pinprick for now. The reality is while my army could crush him, it would take about 15 turns to get in position to do so, and we're at a juncture in the game where ancient stuff is not going to cut it anymore. He could have iron and 3-4 swordsmen upgraded from warriors by the time I get there. Raising an army to attack him encounters the same problem. It's just a bad moment to go on the offensive, against him and Singaboy at least, with the looming classical era militaries just an upgrade away. 

So, revenge against Archduke is on hold, for the moment at least. There's just not much I can do. He should just count himself very luck that he rolled the dice without eyes on my army and it was far away from him. I'm going to remember this though.

As always, questions about my moves this turn, plans going forward are welcome. Hopefully I can get another turn before I go to bed tonight!

[Zero_1627]

I like Your plan!

As You do not plan to invade Archduke after all - do make potshots of your own? This may cause him to accept peace as soon as possible instead of drawing this out and hoping!