Chevalier Rides Again: A City Lights exploration

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Randoms, 202: Japan Counterattacks

Japan launches what counterattacks he can against my fleet. The 3 frigate fleets combine to knock out 2 of my own caravels, while I lose fully 5 privateers - 1 to city defenses and 4 to enemy ships around the coast. At least I kept Japan busy somewhat, but new doctrine forbids privateers from operating without supporting warships. We'll use them to screen and only move into pillage once the main fleet is defeated in the area.

Um, which it soon will be, at least on the east coast:




Japan flung his ships at mine, bloodying a few caravels and privateers but no more, instead of tucking at least one fleet into Nagoya and pulling the other two back for Tokyo and Akkad, which is what I would have done. He also opted to use his Admirals as scouts, costing him 5 combat strength. 

I calmly marshal my frigates into place first:




In a driving, slashing melee, the 5 frigate fleets pound the enemy ironclads largely into scrap, before my own 5 ironclad fleets throw themselves in. Here and there a Caravel lands the finishing blow, as we break through on the weak northern flank and sink his frigate fleet without it accomplishing anything:




That's reassuring. Japan is an excellent city-builder but he's a poor tactician. I account for 5 ironclad fleets and 1 frigate fleet in return for the loss of 3 caravel fleets and 2 privateers from the main fleet, plus 5 privateers elsewhere. He can kick out 1 ironclad every 3 turns or so from his monstrous super-cities, but I can build one every 6 in my own cities and I've got the Venetian Arsenal, plus more cities and more ships in being than he has, so if I keep my foot on his throat that should end things. 

Now, we're not going to fight Victor or Nagoya's Renaissance Walls, instead I will sweep past and head for Tokyo or Akkad. Tokyo is more vital but Akkad more vulnerable - only 100 walls, 79 combat strength, and I can liberate it. Then we can liberate Oslo, just to the south, and cut Japan off from bringing reinforcements through, or we can hit Tokyo first, slug it out there, and win the game more or less by torching the city. Nagoya and the Japanese west coast will wait for battleships, which will be escorted by swarms of privateers and ironclads to pound his cities into submission from out of range of his tough walls. 

Norway enters the war on my side, but, dammit, the Military Alliance lapses - I'll renew. I buy my first battleship, saving the rest of my gold for upgrades, and prepare to hit Japan's cities:

[ljubljana]

Lol, your MP went from 738 to 2672 over the course of one screenshot  The VA is one hell of a drug...

I miss reading about Civ6 naval combat. Thanks for your continued reporting.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The one saving grace to this game is that Japan isn't the best tactician. He keeps flinging individual ironclad fleets at me now, basically as he finishes them - about 1 per turn, so I estimate he's cranking them out at 4 turns per city. I would mass them while resisting from my cities - even frigate fleets hardly scratch Japan's cities, so he'd have about 5-6 turns minimum to gather a force together, and then hit me once my fleet is weakened from the bombardment warfare. He also operates his privateers as fleets, which is counter to my doctrine. Fleets add combat power, but can't raid as much or screen as many units. I use mine as screens to soak up hits and to opportunistically raid undefended parts of his coast. I've lost probably 8 since the war started, to his 4 (2 fleets).

I need to move quick, though, or he'll erode my fleet away. Every city is on military builds - battleships, ironclads, privateers. I no longer care about keeping my coal budget, though I am taking measures - settling a coal city, running the +1 card, etc, to try to ease the crunch. However, I HAVE to have ironclads to replace my losses (none yet, but I imagine that will come soon), I HAVE to have BBs to crack these cities - frigate fleets are barely scratching him. So right now the plan is to use the existing fleet to liberate Akkad, south of Tokyo, and use the friendly waters to upgrade to BBs. Then swing my BB fleets north and shell Tokyo down from out of range, and then burn the city. I think that will settle the war, more or less, but will need dozens of turns to mop up.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Randoms, Turn 203 - 206:

We defeated the Japanese main fleet at Nagoya, but as mentioned Hojo is able to spit out new ironclads (fleets? I think he has seaports) every 4 turns or so from his cities, so we can't rest on our laurels. Greek spies reveal that Magnus is ensconced behind Renaissance-class walls, an encampment, and numerous field guns at Nagoya, so we demonstrate why I've always felt that walls are a damned foolish investment most of the time, and sail south and west, into the Gulf of Tokyo:




note that there are fully 8 ironclads in 3 fleets and 2 singletons visible! Scattered all over the place, thankfully, and he keeps engaging my outermost units. My defensive screen is being worn away, and we're operating VERY far from our bases here, but I hope I have enough muscle to punch through to Akkad. The goal is to liberate that city and use it as a base to upgrade my 6 frigate fleets to Battleship fleets. A lone BB is also sailing (with privateer escort) to rendezvous with Santa Cruz, who will spend his ability to upgrade it to an armada. Then the battleship fleets will move north to bombard and destroy Tokyo, if we can. 

The two ironclad fleets defending Akkad are easily sunk and we move into bombardment range on turn 205.



Astonishingly, I lose no units on the interturn, as he ineffectually shells my caravels and privateers, and on 206 we're able to pillage his harbors, fishing boats, and open fire:




All 5 frigate fleets are able to chip off about 1/4 of the city's health, so possibly turn 210 we can liberate and upgrade our frigates on 211. So, we should hit Tokyo at about 215, at which point I can expect 3 or 4 ironclad fleets to be defending the city. Rough. 

To the east, near Nagoya, Santa Cruz links up with the BB, and we inflict heavy losses on a nearby ironclad fleet, although we don't manage to sink her:





Note again my use of single privateers as screens. They are cheap to build with the Venetian Arsenal, costing only 70 production each but soaking up a turn of attacks, or pillaging and firing if ignored. By contrast, the ironclad fleets he's using to sink them are 760 production, meaning I can lose 10 of the little bastards and still come out ahead. If I run Letters of Marque, it's even worse, costing only 35 production per raider! Now, if you operate them alone, they don't really ahve the firepower to catch and kill ironclads, and if you let them sail individually, then they can be run down individually. The trick is to concentrate them with the main fleet - they absorb attacks on their turn, then on my turn I counterattack with my combat units. That's the doctrine I intended for PBEM20, btw, and I think it would have decisively finished the war in my favor had I not run off to South Africa to get married. She took me skydiving today for my birthday, though, so I think it was a good trade. 

ANYWAY, I've lost about 10 privateers and 4 caravels so far, against 8 Japanese ironclads, 2 frigates, and a privateer of his own, so I'm willing the battle of attrition. But if my fleet is destroyed before I can take out one or two of his cities, then I think he'll still be able to outproduce me - remember, he has lategame Hojo-cities over there, while I'm running a vanilla civilization as Greece.

Nothing to do but keep grinding. Norway has joined the war on my side as a military ally, and his longships are raiding and distracting. I might shift down to Oslo before Tokyo and liberate it, too, to relieve pressure on that flank, but not certain yet. Here's the situation at the end of 206:




(My privateers on the western Japanese coast I have withdrawn - they were opposed by a few caravel and privateer fleets and couldn't survive unsupported. I'll move back in once I think I've drawn away the Japanese defenders).

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

207: Slugging it out at Akkad



The city is down to 1/3 defenses and 1/2 health. The BB armada can join the shelling next turn, so I think Akkad will fall on 208. Upgrade on 209, and then swing either south to liberate Oslo FIRST and seal off the south flank, or go straight north and end Tokyo before the ironclads there grow overwhelming. IF I get Tokyo, THEN Nagoya should fall, and at that point Japan is down half his empire and we can work our way around to Takamatsu, Kyoto, and Stavanger-Nidaros. 

But look at that Japanese science! Wow! I haven't built any universities or anything for quite a while, gone all military. The only hope is that a)he can't get more coal or oil, and b)He can't build the new technologies since he has to keep building ships or go under right away. I may have struck just in time. 

I settled a single coal city which stabilizes my own resource situation. My combat strength will be maintained just long enough to hit one or two of the cities after Akkad, even with a bunch of BBs. Frantically researching towards Ideology and then Communism (since I have 3 factories and 0 military academies for Totalitarianism), which will ease my own government situation considerably. 

No reactions from the Japanese navy this last turn, as he disengages along the front. A few ironclads and privateers are beginning to push through the channel north of Japan, but they have a long way to go before they reach anything important.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Randoms 208

Hard pounding, this. We'll see who pounds longest:


One of my five frigate fleets is sunk by Akkad, and the ironclad escorts are starting to appear very badly battered. The other unit killed is a privateer, run down by a caravel fleet as it retreats from Japan's west coast. My fleet is starting to show severe signs of attrition, and I would hate another general fleet engagement right now. But Akkad is doomed. 



Our four remaining frigate fleets open up, and I bring in the battleship armada which had previously received its baptism by fire outside Nagoya against that ironclad fleet (presently repairing inside the Japanese city). The concentrated firepower is enough to reduce Akkad's defenses, and one of my two ironclads administers the finishing blow. 

The final situation outside Akkad is thus:


Of my five ironclad fleets, not one remains intact. 1 is on green health, 3 are on yellow (1 with a promotion ready), and one is on red. I have 5 frigate/BB fleets or armadas, all intact, and one single BB as well. There are 6 caravel fleets present as well, mostly intact. I reckon that should be enough to deal with any fleet Japan has managed to scrape up in the meantime, so the offensive can continue. There are 6 privateers available as screens or raiders, with another 6 available in 2-3 turns. Overall power hasn't fallen much, standing at about 2.5x Japanese power. Other things of note - Japan built a canal between Stavanger and Nidaros north of Lake Akkad, and a second south of the lake into an icy bay southwest of Oslo. Oslo itself serves as a final canal in a southern passage for Japanese ships from the west to the east, letting him bypass the north - I have forces observing the northern passage, but so far no Japanese probes beyond a few privateers in that direction. There is presently a Japanese ironclad fleet transiting the middle lock, from Lake Akkad to Oslo Bay. 

Japanese science is still twice my own. Phoenicia is running university projects and exceeds my science while he does so, but I don't mind that so much since he's not building anything more dangerous. Phoenicia and Indonesia both have alliances with me expiring on turn 210, and together they equal my military power. While I don't think they could seriously threaten my cities with their Caravel/Jong/Frigates against my Steel-level defenses and ironclad-fleet grade fighting power, the Indonesian navy in particular might be a threat to my supply lines to Oslo. There's a ton of Indonesian ships observing the fighting all around Japan, and they can outfight my privateers and threaten single ships sailing for the warzone. If Indonesia declares, I'll be forced to convoy up. I don't think he'll do so, however - his capital is on my mainland, his tech is decades behind, and he'd be desperately vulnerable to me. I hope he'll accept one more renewal of friendship, which should be long enough to knock Japan out of contention. 

Phoenicia is more dangerous long-term, but has poor infrastructure and only 800 power. I don't think he'll want a war, either - I did settle a city on his mainland that gave me desperately needed coal, but it was just sitting there for ages! Anyway, Phoenicia should see that I outweigh him 3:1, but that his science is 'better', and so hopefully will renew, as well. Norway is fighting alongside me but his ships are getting swept off the sea - he's mostly a nuisance distraction, pillaging undefended tiles with longships but no match, obviously, for Japan if Japan turns his direction. 

So, the next stage of operations is clear enough. Akkad will be held long enough to upgrade my remaining 4 frigates and conduct as many repairs to my fighting ships as practicable. Meanwhile, privateers and caravel screens will sweep south to Oslo and blockade htat city, which has a trebuchet now to provide fire support. The battleships will be able to shell Oslo from safety, at which point it will be liberated to Norway (Akkad having been granted Free City status by that point), which will cut Japan's expensive canal and give Norway a fighting chance. I don't know if Oslo will receive Steel defenses once transferred to Norway? If not, it will be vulnerable to Japanese reconquest, but that's not a huge deal - it'll pin Japan down and secure my southern flank while I deal with the main prize: Tokyo.

Oslo having fallen within the next 10 turns, I will sail north, sweep aside any defenders, and begin to shell Tokyo. Within 5 turns after that, we should be able to raze the city. At that point, the war will be simplified. Japan will lose his adjacencies and be down to just Nagoya on this coast. We will finally shell and raze that city, still sending reinforcements and defenders against any renewed fleets from the west, then evaluate. Most likely the fleet shall steam to home waters and repair and upgrade, then we'll set a course for Stavanger. We'll bypass Kyoto and Takematsu, deep in defensible bays, and liberate the two vulnerable and isolated Norwegian cities first instead. Then and only then, with Japan down to his final two cities, we'll move in and destroy Takematsu and occupy Kyoto as the final blow. It'll probably take months, until turn 270 or even later.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Randoms 209




The attack on Oslo begins, as my battleships begin to shell the city. With a frigate fleet and trebuchet beefing up the walls, I don't place any ironclads or privateers as cover, yet - there is no ironclad nearby to hit my battleships, and the two defenders can't hit the BBs, so no need to risk anything quite yet. I upgrade 4 more battleship fleets back at Akkad and knock 75 hp off the walls, while moving up screens and melee units:




About 1/4 of the walls down in one turns' shelling from an armada, a fleet, and a lone BB. Next turn I should be able to get half of it with the other 4 joining the fight, and hope to take the city by turn 212 at the latest. On course to capture Tokyo by turn 220, still. 

Also note the ironclad at top of screenshot, near Huey Teocalli - either a second fleet coming down from Stavanger, or he is pulling his own ironclads north and abandoning this coast. I assume this is a second one passing down, and the first is located somewhere in Oslo Bay. It is remotely possible that he'll be able to sally out and attack one of my battleships with it next turn - however, I do not think he can one shot it, nor even kill it with the frigate in fire support, and to even hit a BB he has to expose both of his own fleets to retaliation. With 4 battleship fleets waiting to steam in (plus my bevy of caravels and privateers), that should let me clean up both units and then the city falls one turn later than otherwise. Even Japan can't sustain a loss rate like that. 

Final setup around Oslo:


Huey and the Mausoleum indicate Japan has gone for a lot of wonders this game, but he didn't get the setup right for the key wonder of the Venetian Arsenal. He's also clearly a magnificent city planner - look at his yields! - and a fair hand at conquest, since his conquering of Akkad, Oslo, Stavanger, and Nidaros is what made him competitive in this game with me (I conquered only London and Newcastle off England, then tied my own hands on conquest until it became apparent I had to attack Japan or lose). So I don't know how he allowed me to build such an overwhelming naval advantage, nor do I think he handled the early days of the war quite properly. But since then he's done a good job of abandoning a lost fight in open water and sheltering his units in cities to boost combat strength, and making me approach cautiously. He also successfully cleared his west coast, where I lost four or five privateers and pulled the rest out of range. I THINK I have the whip hand here - his massive science advantage shouldn't translate into dangerous units like DDs or CGs - but we'll see!

Quick bit of math: Each BB fleet fights at 80 combat strength vs. Oslo's 80 strength. That means I should be doing about 28 damage with each shot on the walls. With five fleets attacking next round, that should put the walls at less than 100 HP. The Armada will do a bit more damage, closer to 38, so that drops the walls to nearly 60 points next turn, and the final BB, if he can get a firing angle, drops his walls to 40 HP or so. Privateers can fire to inflict about 10 points of damage each from 2 spots, so I can only expect to reduce the walls to 20 HP next turn with a maximum effort - short of lucky dice rolls it looks as if I can't fully eliminate them next turn.

City health: Oslo only took 11 points of damage in my 3 attacks. That will heal on the interturn. Once the walls are below 80% health (as they already are), he'll start to take about 10 HP of damage per attack. So, my fleets will inflict ~50 HP of damage to the city itself next turn, dropping him to 150 HP. Then we do full damage with our next attacks, about 30 HP from the armada and 10 from the fleet, so Oslo should finish next turn at about half-health, 100 HP or so depending on rolls. My two ironclad fleets can only inflict about half that, plus perhaps 20 more from privateers, so again, it's impossible to take the city next turn. However, 211 is an entirely realistic timeline. That's our goal.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

210

Screenshots on other computer, sorry, this is just a quick update. 

Japan finished researching Steel on the interturn, and Oslo's wall strength jumped 100 points. Irritating, since that's the only time in the entire game that can happen - you can't normally work on wall improvements whilst the walls are damaged, and walls can't be repaired if they've been damaged within 3 turns(ish). But Steel enables modern defenses for all cities (and enables battleships), so I have tough 400 point walls to grind through everywhere now.

I still think we're on schedule to capture on 211, even so. The main worry is that now Japan can field battleships, as well, and obviously all cities are tough nuts to crack. That doesn't worry me too much in and of itself, since without a modern fleet any city will fall eventually. It's actually a bit comforting since I know Japan isn't close to Combustion and so won't be able to roll out DDs for a while. I have him efficiently blockaded at this point and he has no oil in his territory even so, so his science advantage doesn't matter much - he can't field modern units without oil, not even biplanes to harass my BBs. 

The main thing is keep the pressure and momentum on - keep my death ball through Oslo (liberate to Norway) and then roll up to Tokyo. Tokyo falling should seal the deal, as it guts his internal adjacencies, and isolates Nagoya. Then roll to Nagoya and he's down to 4 cities, having lost half his empire. Then a period to repair and regroup and go after the other half of the empire with a fresh fleet. 

Japanese power is down below 1000, while mine touches 3000, stronger than when I started the war. He has 2 bombards (upgraded the trebuchets on the interturn) and the frigate fleet visible - I think that's good news. Siege weapons are a waste as coastal defenses - they are outranged and outmaneuvered by battleships. I'll take Oslo without them being able to reply, and then they can try to siege the city down again if they like, while I sail elsewhere. So the more he invests in these fixed guns and encampment defenses (he built an encampment at Tokyo and another at Akkad), the better for me. Only ships worry me, nothing else.

[williams482]

The trick is to concentrate them with the main fleet - they absorb attacks on their turn, then on my turn I counterattack with my combat units. That's the doctrine I intended for PBEM20, btw, and I think it would have decisively finished the war in my favor had I not run off to South Africa to get married.

I never did figure out what to do with that privateer death ball; they weren't strong enough to kill anything that wasn't completely isolated and Woden was able to screen his coastlines enough to stop any real pillaging exploits (same as the situation in eastern Japan for you right now). Of course it didn't help that I kept unwittingly revealing them by parking them next to enemy traders... Oh well. Live and learn.

Clustering the privateers with the main fleet - to screen more valuable ships, do occasional chip damage to cities, and just generally find more useful ways to die than getting wiped out en masse by superior enemy vessels in the middle of nowhere - would definitely have been better. And of course their ability to ignore ZoC meant that the two (two!!!) I had at Diomede were enough to break Ljubljana's lines and ultimately won that battle. Even in an open waters combat situation, being able to slip between enemy ships to add flanking bonuses and get extra attacks in is really nice. It's a fair wager that two dozen privateers, properly deployed, would have allowed most of my battleships to survive Finnmark and actually do something in the aftermath.

Thanks as always for the well written reports, as well as the demonstration of how to better use a privateer swarm.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Thank you again for taking over. I threw you into the midst of a hot war, and had envisioned a full doctrine for naval fighting that I definitely didn't explain. So you came through with flying colors, I think!

I think the basic deathball is still the proper way to fight naval wars, it's just privateers are cheap and can get around the 'first strike' issue that we ran into in PBEM4, PBEM7, PBEM12, and PBEM20 - they let you tank a first strike and then hit with your actual valuable units afterwards. It's like having cheap screens in Civ 4 stack warfare.

I'm terrified of Japanese science and production capabilities - double my science (I haven't bothered to build a science building in like 70 turns, just production and then units), and half a dozen fully developed industrial zones. With Hojo adjacencies, I think his 7 cities can still match my 15 VA-boosted cities - it's just my head start and the fact that I keep winnowing out his new builds that's letting me keep ahead. If I don't translate that into crippling Japan now then the game is over.

Fingers crossed that Phoenicia and Indonesia see this, too, and don't jump in. Their fleets can't beat mine, but they would take time for me to fend off and in that time Japan might recover.