I am about 99% sure oledvay will come for my coastal cities, or at least that is what I would do. Take out my ability to make MGs and pretty much take me out of the game. I am also 99% sure I won't get the Euerka for Nationalism and will have to suffer from attacks for 3 or 4 turns.
Turn 154
The invasion of Germany is not looking so well when I open the save and find that TWO frigates were sunk. I was expecting to lose 1 but not 2. I am starting to think it is time to pull back and maybe even send most of the units back home to defend against Japan. Here is where I left things at the end of the turn.
Turn 155
My settler in the south finally makes landfall...
This will be a pretty unless long-term city but it has 2 luxuries I don't have (mercury and pearls) and 2 bonus resources I can harvest for gold. It will be a couple of turns until it is founded but I will chop walls right away into a monument for more culture. Speaking of which...
My culture is 90.4

and the next closest is Japan at 77.5

, nice! Nationalism is still 9 turns out and I should be able to take at least 1, maybe 2 turns off of it in the coming turns.
Turn 156
Attacking Germany is a bust! Have Frigates only able to scratch the walls of 71 strength city and no good place to land was enough to prevent me from doing anything. May have to come back with better units in 20 turns. I start moving my units back to Brazil...
I am ready to chop out a Art Mueseum...
and assign a worker to it for +4
I really hope Spain can hold out until I see if I can get the inspiration for Nationalism from a formal war (pretty sure not but need to check it out or if I can get another CB form him...
Japan is now leading in score, not sure if it was this turn or a previous turn but first time I noticed it.
Turn 157
I found my southern city...
and chop out walls and put the monument in production. These chops are nice, they instantly finish wall, 1 turn a monument, then 1 turn a grainery. Instant starter city. I do need to remember to change the names of my new cities to fit my theme.
Time to see if I can get the inspiration for Nationalism...
Only CB available is formal war (what I figured)...
and nope, no inspiration. I didn't think it would happen but no harm trying it plus it will keep oledavy guessing and on edge. Speaking of oledavy...
Looks like he will take old Stockholm this turn. No sure what TheArchduke is doing, I did try and warn him like 5 turns ago.
Lastly, I harvest some copper at Natal for 252

. Good money for upgrades...
Turn 158
Not much this turn. I did take one last shot of Japan's core in case my vision ends this turn...
Still not sure exactly when friendship and alliances end. I sent him friendship on T128 and he send an alliance that same turn but I accepted on T129. One would think it would end 30 turns from when I signed it, which would be T159, but...
Turn 159
I still have vision, so it either ends during oledavy's turn and my next turn. Here are a few shots of his land and navy. In the south...
and the north...
and what he has in my little gulf...
Time for some action to help defend, in the form...
First time I have ever paid to switch policies. I go with...
Bastons for extra defense plus Professional Army for some musket upgrades. This brings all my coastal cities with Medieval walls to 71 strength. Might lose Mangueira but not Salgueiro. Nationalism is 4 turns away.