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Mardoc Wrote:No, because the whole question is whether we run out of villagers or wolves first. Every day that a villager dies and a wolf dies, we maintain the status quo. Every day that two villagers die, we slip closer to being outnumbered. All that matters is the difference between the wolves and the villagers.
What the Baner can do is give a day where a wolf dies and no villager dies, or only one villager dies. Those improve the odds.
That said, back to back wolf kills would still suggest we're on the right track and probably actually have enough info to kill wolves later on. But that helps by avoiding mislynches, not by anything else.
Right... so essentially we'd need a 'Wolf kill, followed by a Baner save, at the very least to gain ourselves an extra lynch? Right? I'd do the math myself but I'm too busy at work. :neenernee
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Hey just in case I die tonight:
-I'm fairly certain Zakalwe is a wolf
-Fire&Ice and Ichabod are very suspicious
-I think gold Ergo Sum is very suspicious with his low profile
-Rowain, Roland, novice = I believe there is one wolf among these three. leaning toward Rowain and novice
So thats who I'm looking at. Should I be looking at Serdoa? Maybe but I think any suspicions of him are based on personality and style and have thought that for most of the game.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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At the moment we have 6 more villagers than wolves (well, assuming the wolves got somebody). Every correct lynch keeps that number where it is. Each missed lynch subtracts two.
Each baner save essentially adds one. So at the moment, one baner save would give us an extra mislynch (because those subtract 2, but we can subtract 2 from 7 three times without hitting 0), but then we'd need two more to get the next mislynch.
Again, all that matters for losing is the number of mislynches and baner saves. A correct lynch keeps us at status quo, just a day later.
If we get all correct lynches, then the baner isn't needed at all, we just win. If the baner always saves, but we have enough mislynches, we still lose, just later. All the baner can do is stretch out the game and give a greater margin for error, he can't win it.
EitB 25 - Perpentach
Occasional mapmaker
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*yawn*
Good Morning! I am writing up the night phase now. 
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[Size="7"]End of Night 4[/Size]
Before the whole debacle, the trapper had always checked his traps just before dawn. After the Baron's visit, he had always waiting for sunrise before venturing out of his house. After three nights, the wolves noticed. The village, at first, hoped beyond hope when they did not hear any screams in the night. Perhaps the Baner had been successful, the wolves repelled, and a villager saved ~ alas no. At headcount, Irgy was missing, and novice sent to find him.
The door to Irgy's home opened silently, but was unbarred. The trapper was nowhere to be found in the house. At last Novice comes to the basement, where he is greeted with a familiar sight. A magic circle, and a bloody mess. It appears that Irgy, like Bobchillingworth, also practiced a form of night magic, and the wolves had found him out. Though novice knew nothing of these things, to him, the circle appeared slightly off. As if there was something subtly wrong about it.
He shrugged his shoulders, whether the circle was right or wrong, it didn't much matter now. He left the basement and returned to the anxious village to tell them the news.
[COLOR="Red"]Irgy was eaten!
Irgy was the Fool.[/COLOR]
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I think we have more than one deep cover wolf. Who just doesn't sit right? Scooter. Who's howling at the moon? Zakalwe. Who set out from day 1 to build a convoluted "wolf would never do that" alibi without associating themselves with anyone else? A high risk, high reward solo mission? Rowain. (No, not Novice).
I have to run.
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Might as well give up, since I was about to vote Irgy next 
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Sareln Wrote:Irgy was eaten!
Irgy was the Fool.
Aw man. I'm going to miss him.
At least they didn't get the Baner.
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I think we can find at least 2-3 wolves from this list:
Scooter
Roland
Zakalwe
Jkaen
Fire&Ice
Or is my suspiciometer that broken?
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Meiz Wrote:I think we can find at least 2-3 wolves from this list:
Scooter
Roland
Zakalwe
Jkaen
Fire&Ice
Or is my suspiciometer that broken?
I like the bottom three. Let's start with one. zakalwe
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