[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[Ceiliazul]

Also note that GE and Dazed are both in slavery now. GE did revolt while the settler was moving, apparently. (I missed it before.)

This makes demo analysis all the harder, whip/regrow is impossible to see in sequential turns, but throws off the natural growth intervals.

GE, kill that Arab warrior, would ya?

[plako]

Well played - That shot was well worth it and ended up very nicely for you. Now the problem is that I don't see much point in continuing the game. You're huge favorites and would need to make a big mistakes to give anyone a shot. Based on your early game here and PBEM25g I just don't see you blowing this.

What would you say, if I reveal most of the facts and we give others option to decide if they want to continue or concede? I know there might be lot of fun for you developing your nation to juggernaut, but I feel like others should know that they've huge uphill battle here.

[Ceiliazul]

Already?

What would you say, if I reveal most of the facts and we give others option to decide if they want to continue or concede? I know there might be lot of fun for you developing your nation to juggernaut, but I feel like others should know that they've huge uphill battle here.

Plako, I'll respond to this, let me think about it a little.

The turn went as planned. GE has swarmed the hill, with 4 warriors in view. Dazed must have died cuz the worker is naked. Commodore, this is how you clear a choke!



Commodore, what's that you say? You said it's not so easy with multiple veteran attackers on bare ground? Oh...



Meanwhile the scout brings back good news: more clams!

[Ceiliazul]

Well played - That shot was well worth it and ended up very nicely for you. Now the problem is that I don't see much point in continuing the game.

I noticed some lurker activity (after a very long lack thereof), is that the consensus?

Lurkers, I hope you've noted the skill Timski has displayed here. I want to see him nominated for Ded-Lurk of the year honors or something!

[timski]

I can't keep up! No chance to sim anything today. On initial reading, I doubt there's much scope for improving micro - it looked good. Instead, have a C&D update.

C&D

On T27, GingerEagle grew to size 5, founded Selhurst Park, and teched something. Something was not animal Husbandry: GingerEagle was at 22 power. Their total population rose to 6, for +1 soldier point = 23. We have visiual confirmation of 2 Warrior builds on T28 and T29 (very likely one slaved with instant regrowth), while simultaneously confirming their earlier 2 Warriors are still alive (for now!). Another 4 points = 27. The maximum is still 28, so GingerEagle's T27 tech did not award soldier points. Mysticism or Masonary, since Writing seems unlikely in 4 turns. GingerEagle should logically have teched Mysticism.

Your Animal Husbandry confusion is Dazed, who also teched something on T27. If you got an extra Beaker discount on Animal Husbandry, you got it from Dazed, because Commodore has had Animal Husbandry since T23.

So, on T27, we have GingerEagle at 23 power, Dazed at 28 max, and one of Commodore or Kyan still at 21. The average is 24.25, so whoever isn't at 21, gained 4 power. Commodore didn't lose their last Warrior and they already had Wheel, nor could they have produced 2 Warriors in one turn (as much they probably wanted to). Ergo Commodore is still on 21, and probably teched Agriculture. This is only a turn after they lost their "happy stack", so Commodore would not have had a chance to switch research, and until that point, Agriculture was somewhat logical for Rice farming.

So Kyan gained 4 power points on T27, but I'm struggling to allocate them. Wheel, the obvious tech, I had pegged on T25. On that turn they got a 4 power increase. At the time I was certain I could split Kyan from Dazed. But the score increments leave little doubt that it was Dazed that founded their second city on T25, and therefore that it was Dazed that held (and still does hold) the rival best power title: From T24, Kyan's score has risen 102-108-108-114-120, while their capital is still at 3 population. Only one of those scores is for population, and due to the power change on T27, we know that Kyan had to gain a tech that turn, and so didn't gain found their second city until T28.

All of that averages out beautifully.

Commodore has not yet built another Warrior - presumably they are going for Archery and hoping not to waste hammers in the meantime. They may be slaving, but I would guess they are still building a Worker, which they will eventually cover with an Archer. In the meantime the Worker can get turns into farming their Rice, which thus far you have not threatened.

Kyan was still giving me a huge headache. The wildcard moves, like Archery while losing a Warrior, are unlikely because Kyan has so few Warriors. And yet their lack of Warriors, in spite of a confirmed lose on T26, and hostility with Dazed, is in itself bewildering. So, I'll make the bold assumption that on T18 - the last turn with a mere 2-power gain from Kyan, Kyan teched something without a power gain, while building a Warrior. They also built a Warrior T17, but with the whip, already on the cusp on population 3, and with Dazed at their door, they could have got 2 Warriors out in 2 turns. Agriculture is the obvious candidate, since they did not have the Wheel. That allows a combination of Animal Husbandry with a Warrior, and Wheel, on turns 25 and 27. Impossible to split those - clearly one was part researched 10 turns before. I'd wager Wheel on T25, simply because the Warrior on T27 becomes a logical priority for Kyan after losing a Warrior on T26.

So, while there is still a margin of doubt surrounding Kyan, I'm now looking at tech and build which makes sense from a gameplay perspective, while stacking up mathematically.

Summary

So we're both "on the same page", I'll list out everything since turn 15:

GingerEagle:

• Teched Bronze Working T16, Wheel T20, Pottery T23, and (probably) Mysticism tech T27.
  
• Crystal Place built Warrior #2 T17, (probably) Worker #2 ~T21, Settler T26, Warrior #3 T28, and Warrior #4 T29.
  
• Crystal Place grew to size 4 T16, size 5 T27, probably whipped with regrowth T29.
  
• Selhurst Park was founded T27.
  
• No loses. GingerEagle has 4 Warriors, (probably) 2 Workers, and (possibly still) a Scout.

Commodore:

• Teched Hunting T16, Animal Husbandry T23, and (probably) Agriculture T27.
  
• Bear built Worker #1 T15, Worker #2 ~T20, Warrior #3 T22, Settler T25, Warrior #4 T26.
  
• Bear grew to size 3 on T22, back to size 2 on T25.
  
• Warriors lost (to Kyan/Dazed) on T17, (to us) T25 and T26. Settler and 2 Workers lost on T26. 175 hammers lost! Commodore has... a Warrior.

Dazed:

• Teched Bronze Working T22, Animal Husbandry T27.
  
• Mecca built a Warrior #4 T25. Probably a Work Boat ~T17 and Settler ~T24, maybe with Worker #2 in between.
  
• Mecca grew to size 3 on T17.
  
• City #2 founded T25.
  
• No loses. Dazed has 4 warriors, probably 2 Workers.

Kyan:

• Teched Bronze Working T15, (probably) Agriculture T18, Wheel and Animal Husbandry T25 and T27 (order may vary).
  
• Capital built Warrior #2 T17 (likely via whip), Warrior #3 T18, Warrior #4 T27. Settler by T25, maybe Worker #2 sometime before. Builds order likely disrupted by a panic whipping of Warriors around T17/18, in response to Dazed.
  
• Capital grew to size 3 T17.
  
• City #2 founded T28.
  
• Warrior lost (to Dazed) on T26. Kyan has 3 warriors, probably 2 Workers, and maybe still a Scout.

Points of Interest:

• GingerEagle should have whipped out a Granary. They may even have been planning to start the 'Henge around now. Instead they've been forced to whip Warriors, sans Granary.
  
• Expect Commodore to farm their Rice shortly, and not move onto the Copper until they have Archer.
  
• Dazed has the largest army in the game, and was still able to take a shot at Kyan on T26, presuably to delay them settling or mining their Copper. Dazed has all the early military techs (nobody has Archery), but as a result is lacking Pottery, which will hurt their development even further.
  
• Kyan did get rushed around T17, but whipped out defenses very effectively. Dazed is probably still choking their second city. Like Dazed, Kyan has all the early military techs, but Kyan's economy is somewhat better developed.

[Ceiliazul]

An ongoing choke in Kyan's land doesn't jive with Kyan's elite warrior hopping around in Commodore's land. Also odd, the orientation of the Ethiopia warrior indicates he came from the deer... but the deer remain camped. Did Kyan skip the chance to pillage? Wierd.

Hey, full set of techs! Also, we now have enough bpt to determine a 6% cleanly... Next turn (before whipping), I'll do some gnp witching of all techs to see where we're at.

You may well be right about Dazed AH. I'll checked AH gnp between turns, but not before/after meeting Dazed.

[timski]

Well played - That shot was well worth it and ended up very nicely for you. Now the problem is that I don't see much point in continuing the game. You're huge favorites and would need to make a big mistakes to give anyone a shot. Based on your early game here and PBEM25g I just don't see you blowing this.

What would you say, if I reveal most of the facts and we give others option to decide if they want to continue or concede? I know there might be lot of fun for you developing your nation to juggernaut, but I feel like others should know that they've huge uphill battle here.

Personally, I don't think the game's over yet for us - Commodore and GingerEagle may be weak, but that weakness should be exploitable by Dazed and Kyan - if only they'd stop killing each other, they could at least remain competitive.

For what it's worth, I think if we're calling the game already, it's an admission that close starts simply don't work: They place too much emphasis on randoms. That's sad, because I love what I've seen of this map - it has been full of surprises.

Unfortunately starting this close, it is rather likely that one early move will manage to cripple someone. Be that Dazed rushing Kyan, or us hitting Commodore's stack. I hope we displayed more than just luck, but it is a fact that when an opponent only has a few units at the start of the game, losing those units is going to cripple them. In games where the starts are spread, that rarely happens, because it can take 20 turns to even scout out an opponent.

[Ceiliazul]

I feel our position was strong even before the worker capture, and don't want that reduced to a 'luck' victory condition.

I wonder if I made unilateral concessions to keep the game going? What if I agreed to pull back to my own mountains and not invade anyone's land until t60? Surely at least one of my opponents will have absorbed an adjacent empire and become a rival. What if I deleted 2 of the workers next turn?

In 25g, I was disappointed the game ended without war. That's why I joined an 'always war' game here. I'll be bummed if this one ends early too.

I'm interested in ideas, bring 'em on. Timski, lets take a break here and let this stay at the top for a bit.

[timski]

What if I deleted 2 of the workers next turn?

The Workers are a mid-term advantage, worth nothing much at this precise moment in time. Short-term we should be just as vulnerable as everyone else - militarily, demographically, we've nothing special - it just happens that we managed to keep our land free of enemy. If we delete Workers, we'd need a global "no Worker steals" rule, since our remaining Workers are just as vulnerable as everyone else's, until we can use them to build an economy. Such a rule is clearly a nonsense in an always war game. And what of Commodore? Do they get back their lost Warriors, Settler and Workers? Because they're looking pretty screwed at the moment without them. To my mind, arbitrary concessions are worse than abandoning the game, since we'd never know if we could have won, had we played without "one hand behind our back".


Kyan's Warrior certainly tells a tale of Warriors lost I have not accounted for. Unfortunately it would have been very easy to miss some combat, if a Warrior was built on the same turn one was lost. And I'm also struggling to explain 1.3/2 health: Did Commodore get a Warrior out, and suicide it against Kyan's veteran, just to stop the choke? Or has it been injured for a while? At least Goomba is more than a match for Kyan's veteran. Poor Commodore! Let's hope they get some Archery soon. I'd love to see them fight back, and at least finish in a respectable position.

Someone lost a Warrior on T26, in addition to Commodore (who also built one, net no change), because the average power declined. We have near-perfect information on Commodore and GingerEagle, so one of Dazed and Kyan took the hit. Max power remained 26. Kyan could have built a Barracks T26 (taking them to 26 power), while Dazed somehow lost 5 power? The other option is that on T25 Kyan built a Warrior, teched Wheel (or teched Archery without the Warrior) and founded their second city, thus jumping 7 power, while Dazed did nothing. But then I've got to explain Kyan's 108-114-120 score jumps without any population changes. While there is early slack in their research, Kyan couldn't score 3 techs in 4 turns, could they? Worse, if Dazed didn't Settle on T25 (because Kyan did), they haven't yet settled their second city, because your Beaker costs confirm them as either having or gaining Animal Husbandry - and with a hard-to-miss Bronze on T22, they sure didn't have Animal Husbandry before.

Hopefully you can see why this is causing a headache. I was about to say that Daze's lost Warrior might resolve this, but then I noticed more score increases by both....


Added: On Commodore/Kyan: Note Commodore is working the Rice, instead of the Deer. So Kyan must have been on the Deer before moving off it this turn. One theory is that Kyan was planning a cheap shot at Commodore - maybe just pillaging. Then Kyan lost a Warrior at home, and decided they couldn't risk their veteran anymore, instead opting to bring it home? Like us, they can see Commodore isn't going anywhere. Or maybe the move is a simple response to damage, and they plan to heal up on the hill? As for how the veteran got damaged, I'm still confused: If Commodore did build a second Warrior, it would have been safer to fortify it, to ensure that Kyan didn't get a lucky roll. Maybe a suicide attack out was Commodore's optimism talking - "if we don't do something, we've lost anyway, so let's take a chance"? On balance I like that last theory, because Commodore had everything to lose by letting Kyan pillage the Deer. With the Deer free, they live to fight another few turns, with their economy still intact.

I'm interested in ideas, bring 'em on. Timski, lets take a break here and let this stay at the top for a bit.

Ok... I've emptied out all the thoughts that would otherwise have been lost now .

[Ceiliazul]

Commodore Quits?

The micro plan continues, but bad things are happening to the South. It appears Commodore moved his warrior out of the capital. (minimum power did not decrease) Is he quitting? So long old friend.

Plako and the lurkers, take heart: the game may well balance itself right now. If Kyan takes the undefended capital, his 1.3/2 warrior will get a 50% boost for CityDef/hill, making it unlikely I can retake it.

Oh, and Kyan founded Buddha last turn.