kjn's Ryde (spoilers!)

[Commodore]

So what's the plan for that NE apparition? XP farm, or free settler?

[kjn]

You thinking about the barb settlement I haven't scouted yet?

Well, first I have to scout it. See if it's worth capturing and fits into a decent city placement (looks like the latter, so far).

[kjn]

T41 - 1540 BC

No announcements. I'm somewhat surprised that Catwalk hasn't gone for Stonehenge yet, given his shenanigans in religious- and culture-land. TZ finished a cottage between the rice and Sternum.

Docka attacked the warrior on flat land and picked up another 2 XP. He's at 6 now, and can get both G1 and G2 now. I will send him off scouting once he's healed. Stark goes to the ivory, where he can act as MP for Ryd if needed. Elg also heals while watching what the barb in the north does. He has a promotion pending and C1. In the south Citron and the axe continues to stare at each other.

Ie, now my lands are cleared of barbs with no losses.

My workers split up. Alfred goes to the hill 1S of ivory to road it and then move to the deer to camp it; Åsa-Nisse farms, and will help out with the camp afterwards, and Karl Oskar finishes the road 1W of rice.

Dither quite a bit about the next build in Fröderyd. I'd like a barracks to get some promoted units fresh from build, but I will need either a skirmisher or a mint more. And should I whip at size 4 or size 5?

Grow to 4 in 2t, with 11/20 in the box. Grow to 5 in 3t with 10/22 while working the silver, or 5 in 2t with 11/22 by working the lake. Hmmm... seems I can get lots of overflow with the latter strategy, by whipping with 32H in the box. So Mint -> Barracks -> Skirmisher seems doable there. That also decides the build after the Mint in Ryd - it's another skirmisher while growing, in preparation for a settler whip.

I might move the tiles around a bit, so I can work the silver and Ryd can take back the ivory. We'll see.

End turn. Get Writing, Ryd grows, and the barb moves onto the sheep. Elg will be healed once I get the save back - I plan to move him 1NW to the river bend. If the warrior suicides then 1N, otherwise it's back to the silver.




Foreign developments and C&D

Demos after ending turn:

TZ has started to spend more EPs on us. We had a nice lead a few turns back, now we're at 138/140. Have to check values next turn. They have 9H invested in their capital.

Nothing happened with the demos at all, though one team is really putting on the production here, and has for the last four turns. At a guess it's Catwalk, who might be going for a wonder. The good thing is that I can't see him getting more than circa 15H in a city, so his production is split up.

[kjn]

One benefit of having accurate score tracking is that you can break out different score elements. Here is the score for PBEM 42 as of T42:

Catwalk	387
kjn	299
AutomatedTeller	260
Sticks and Bricks	257

Right now Catwalk looks like a runaway score leader, with the game in the bag. But lets remove the most "passive" score generator, land, and see what happens:

Catwalk	246
kjn	233
AutomatedTeller	194
Sticks and Bricks	128

His score lead very much disappears! He still has a population lead that's pretty solid, but I'm catching up fast, and unlike the rest of us he hasn't whipped anything yet.

Furthermore, lets assume he is rival best in food, with 34F to my 27F. That means he gets 2.833F per pop, while I get 3.375. Ie, my citizens produce more than 0.5F per citizen. Another way to state that is that he produces 10F surplus per turn, while I get 11F. Doesn't sound like much, but I have granaries, and he don't, and I have the surplus concentrated over two cities, not spread over three.

That said, I will need to get at least two more settlers out ASAP, and hopefully net the Pyramids soon. Maybe time for another micro-plan. At least I won't have to keep track of techs this time.

[kjn]

T42 - 1480 BC

Moved my skirmisher by Fröderyd 1NW to hopefully make the barb warrior suicide, and guess what I found!




In a way it's a pity, since the presence of Marble on the map means that the other players are more likely to go for those wonders, and they include such nice ones as the Parthenon, the GL, and the MoM. But I should place a priority on getting a city up there, probably 1E or 1W of the marble.

Docka picked up G2 and is almost fully healed, so I send him out scouting. Probably 1E next turn, so I can take advantage of the grass hill next turn.




A city on the PH 1N of the sugar looks quite sweet… will have to wait until after copper and horses, though, I think.

My workers finish a farm for Ryd, road the hill, pre-cottage the tile 1S of sheep, and move to road towards the pass.

Ryd:




Finish the skirmisher (T45), 3-pop whip a settler (T47), and overflow to the Pyramids, turning food into overflow hammers.

Fröderyd:




Plan is to whip the Mint at size 5 and overflow into a barracks, though I might do the whip at size 4 too. Then build units and whip workers.

I run 100% gold this turn, taking advantage of the new Mint in Ryd. Math in 8 or 9t, or maybe 10t depending on how the whips will change things. I will get either a great person in 11t, and it should be near 50-50 between a GE and a GP.

End turn. The bar warrior went SE, so it's back to the silver next turn.

Foreign developments and C&D

Demos after ending turn:

Not much happening. TZ grew their capital to size 4, AT grew his second city to size 3. Total power up 1000, which is AT getting 10 pop total.

The strange thing is that despite being not-FIN I'm quite clearly in the tech lead. Even removing my Oracled MC, I have a small lead (though that is probably due to me being the last one to finish a tech). I guess part of it was that I've been taking good advantage of tech discounts, both from prerequisites and from known techs.

[kjn]

I managed to flying-camera the entire map into a screen shot, though I had to rotate things (and then rotate them back in Preview):




So, where to place the cities? I'm going to go for ICS here - it fits well with a SE and heavy whipping.

So, here are my thoughts for the cities:

On the copper for the next city (Alseda). Not too much food until I can get IW and Calendar, but settling on the banana is blocked by the barb city. With axes I get a strong counter to TZ's impis. The alternative would be 1NW of copper, but then I only get a plains cow and a flood plains for food.

Then probably 1SE of the horses (Ränneslätt). With horses, fish, and the cow it will be a dynamite production city. Not too defensible though, but if I put it on the grass hill 1S of the horse I will block a border city on the plains hill 2W of the horse.

1N of the sugar is on a plains hill, can share sheep and banana and gets deer, sugar, and wet wheat. Looks like a GP or drafting farm.

For the marble (Björkeryd) the options are 1E or 1W, but the land isn't that appealing. PH sheep is about the worst food tile there is.

Another interesting thing is about the barb city. It works a plain riverside grassland. That means it must be up to size 2 right now, maybe even size 3, since it has the silk right next to it (unless some player blocks the tile). It was founded T34, so 9t ago, but it didn't work the grass until I rolled to T43. Might it be up to size 3 already? Possible, if it's planted on a food resource.

[kjn]

T43 - 1420 BC

The turn came back to me, so hopefully we can manage 2 or 2.5 turns today as well.

Elg had to move back to the silver, and hopefully the barb warrior will suicide next turn. Ryd will get its skirmisher in 2t, so if it moves in that direction it will work out too. Docka moved 1E, and can either move NE-SE or SE-somewhere next turn. NE would give visibility on the barb city, so I think that's better.



Alfred finished the road on the grass hill 1S of the ivory, and Åsa-Nisse could move onto the hill and put in a turn of mining there. They will team up to camp the deer next turn. The development of that tile was quite delayed the barbs, and Fröderyd needs it badly.

My other workers road to support movement southwards and to the coming copper city.

Ryd's development is set, and I continue to work the farm, and will next turn as well. In chatting with Waterbat I think I can manage the 3-pop-whip of a settler and grow back to 4 the same turn.

End turn. The barb in the north went SE, and another appeared to my west. Stark will have to quell unrest in Ryd when I get the save back.

Foreign development and C&D

Demos after ending turn:

GNP checking while playing revealed that I get bonus GNP while researching Mathematics, 47 v 45 for other single-discount techs at 30 base beakers, so either AT or TZ researched that tech this turn.

Monster score changes this turn, as I gained 76 points, Catwalk gained 51 points, AT lost a single point, and TZ gained 27 points.

In my case I see that I got a slew of land points a turn early, so I assume that it is the same for Catwalk, and the 51 fits exactly with the projected amount, 141 to 192.

AT gained a classical tech, which is Mathematics, and whipped his second city from size 3 to size 2, or he did it right after growing it to 4. That's a net gain of 3000, going from 48000 in power to 51000.

TZ grew Sternum to size 5 and their second city to size 2, for 1000 in power. He increased in power markedly on the graph, so I guess it's another axe, for 7000 gain to 53000 and rival best.

That would leave 3000 for Catwalk. Probably an archer. Apparently I have an ancient tech unassigned for him right now - will have to check out when that happened.

[kjn]

Having double-checked my C&D notes in the spread sheet and the thread I found that Catwalk got his missing tech on T41. The two cheapest techs that he can research are Agriculture and Priesthood. Agriculture would come with a 15% known tech discount, while Priesthood would get a 40% double prerequisite discount.

For his sake, I really hope he researched Agriculture, but when I look at the GNP development for T40 to T41 I see huge drops there: 54 to 44 for best, and 41 to 36 for average, and no one else researching a tech this turn. So I think he went for Priesthood.

[kjn]

More planning of the whips.

I'm going to 3-pop whip a settler in Ryd on T46. I will finish a skirmisher in the city T45, and I must generate no more than 14 foodhammers (including the mint hammer bonus) on T45 into the settler, otherwise it will turn into a 2-pop whip.

Right now Ryd has 11/21F in its box, and it will go to 17/21 on T45 when the skirmisher finish.

Right now I put in 6H per turn into the skirmisher (base 5 with a forge), and it has 12H invested. This turn I can work a riverside cottage or the ivory while finishing it. Which should I work?

Tile	Hammers	Overflow
Ivory	12 + 8 * 1.25 = 22	6 / 1.25 = 4
Cottage	12 + 5 * 1.25 = 18	2 / 1.25 = 1

Then, on T45 I must put 14/65 foodhammers into a settler. By moving from the farm to a cottage I get +5F. Then I can work either a cottage or the ivory again, with a mine as another option with +4F.

T44 / T45	Ivory	Mine	Cottage
Ivory	5 + (8 + 4) * 1.25 = 20	4 + (8 + 4) * 1.25 = 19	5 + (5 + 4) * 1.25 = 16
Cottage	5 + (8 + 1) * 1.25 = 16	4 + (8 + 1) * 1.25 = 15	5 + (5 + 1) * 1.25 = 12

One alternative could be to work the farm instead of the rice on T45, with the ivory-cottage variety. Will have to check tomorrow.

[kjn]

T44 - 1360 BC

Again no notifications, which is good news. TZ are really putting the EPs on us, they're up to 150 vs my 144, ie they've assigned all their EPs on me. Sternum has circa 17H invested into a build.

Docka goes 1NE to take a look at the barb city, and look!




A city on the forested plains hill next to the marble suddenly looks very appealing. Which marble? Both of course! I also note that my previous thoughts on the barb city were wrong. Anyway, Yayoi isn't that badly placed, but I think it will be pretty indefensible in its current location, so should be razed.

I had first planned to send Docka 1NW to maybe goad a warrior into attacking, but there are three warriors in Yayoi, I only get 96% odds to survive two warriors attacking, and Docka is a valuable unit that I think I'lll need to support founding Alseda. So he withdraws 1SW and can use the hill to get back quickly to the copper. He can scout NE afterwards.

Send Stark into Ryd. 2-pop whip the forge in Fröderyd working clam and silver. I will grow back to size 3 T45 and probably overflow into a barracks, but it will depend on how the barbs move.

Ryd picks up the ivory and will finish the skirmisher this turn, and if I do my counts correctly will work engineer, sheep, farm, and two cottages next turn for exactly 14H into the settler. On T46 the whip and production will then generate 75+14+11 (working engineer, rice, and sheep) for 35 overflow, which is divided by 1.25 for the forge bonus. Thus I will get 28 raw overflow hammers into the Pyramids - effectively 49H. Not too shabby.

And I'll be back to size 4 on T46 too. Lets hear it for proper planning!

My two workers in the east finish their roads, while those in the east west team up on the deer camp, covered by Elg.

End turn. The barb in the east went up the hill, a new barb appeared 3SE of Fröderyd, and the barb in the north went back NW to threaten the silver mine again.

Foreign developments and C&D

Demos and city screen after ending turn:

I lost 26 score due to the whip but regained 13 immediately. Catwalk gained 19 points, a pop and an ancient tech in 4t. AT gained 56 points, of which 63 should be land, so a net loss of 7 points. TZ is unchanged.

From the cities screen Ryd is now at the top with size 6, Lava has dropped to size 6, while Catwalk's capital also has grown to size 6. That fits nicely with the reported demos, so no further whippings or pop growths from what I can tell.

That leaves an ancient tech for both Catwalk and AT. Catwalk took 4t, while AT one-turned his. We also have huge drops in GNP this turn, implying heavily discounted techs or max gold, but a one-turn simply won't show up in the demos.

Large power increases all around, both best, worst and average rose with 6000, none of it from pop. TZ built an axe, and I think AT researched Archery. That leaves an axe for Catwalk, who I think finally researched Agriculture.

TZ is getting a lot of units right now, they're up to 3 axes and 3 impis now.