[PB79] Just one more Game

[xist10]

In the north, on the other hand, I have to decide.

Option A would be the old settlement plan.
Contest the sugar with Miro, but there is a risk that I am too slow.
Miro has cut the road at the former location of Arretium.
I don't see any settlers at the moment, but a double move would not be in accordance with the rules. Since we were in turn order until this turn, I shouldn't move if coldrain has finished the turn.
And as the first to move, Miro can only complete the settler this round.

Option B would be the economic variant.
I lose the sugar for now, but I can work on the spices.
Also blocks a Chinese city.

Option C would be the defensive variant. I lose sugar and spices as well as coastal access, but the city can only be attacked over the river.
A Chinese city would also be blocked here.

I think I would probably go with option C ?




Anyway, let's take a look at my neighbours.
coldrain is out.
Militarily still up to date, coldrain costs 500 per research round!
This puts the costs higher than mine.
There could still be upgrades involved, but I don't really think so.

Unfortunately no pictures of the income, but I think it's less than 500 .
According to the pictures, the railroad probably needs 6 rounds, so the maximum research output is currently ~ 1,000 , effective research output rather less than 500 .

I really hope that coldrain makes peace now. Otherwise I will probably invest 500 to get coldrain to MG.
coldrain should be relatively easy pickings with transports and marines/tanks. I almost think I'd be at industrialization before coldrain is at assembly line.
Cannons still help against tanks, but against tanks and MG ?




In 3rd place at the moment is Gira.
The smallest of our empires, but now better than coldrain in terms of research.
I haven't collected any big data.
A research round probably costs 400 - which is also a lot in my eyes.
Research output is actually enough for economics in 1 - probably with a pre-tech bonus.
Older pictures (T193) show steam engine in 3 turns, but steel after that in 2 turns.
That would be almost 11k over 6 turns.
Peak output could be close to 2,000 ?!
Okay, that includes pre-tech and shadow research, but something doesn't feel right.
Especially since all techs only have a pre-tech arrow and I actually ignore them in the comparison (except for me).

Gira is currently the weakest of the bunch in military terms. Still no rifling and no railroad and a small army.

I should actually cancel the fish/fish trade with Gira and load my current army onto ships and visit the islands.
Unload 12 infantry and 6 cannons next to the island cities, then simultaneously place small stacks on the coastal cities.

I take the whip turn to hold the west and should be on the home stretch.

It'll probably only take longer than 10 turns and then Miro can come knocking again.
I have to fear coldrain's backstab now too.




In 2nd place at the moment is Miro.
He came out of the two-front war relatively well, but it was stupid of us to attack directly with railroads.
And I didn't equip enough.
In fact, depending on my decision regarding the 2nd settler, I should come out of the war better than Miro in terms of land. But I had to accept some small defeats.

Constitution in 2 pure research turns (with significant research in the economy turns) and now capital company in 1 with surplus, makes ~ 1800 maximum research output ?

Costs have probably risen to ~300 now, but income was ~800 last time I checked, I think I can assume 1,200 effective research output by now ?

[greenline]

Do you think it is not worth it to spread CreCon to every city, given enough time?

What would your tech path be after Infantry / factories?

[xist10]

I do think CreCon is it worth.
I have changed to 4 executives this turn. RoI of about 10 turns ? This is good.
I do plan to try to keep border tension with coldrain at a minimum, so I don't plan to expand in most island western cities at the moment, but otherwise ?

I did start chasing after Miro with scientific method.
I think Miro spend a GS, so he has an advantage there.
I'm not sure if I can catch him at communism, if he wants to try.
I think I can, but I'm not sure.

And I chose option C for the second city in the border region.

[xist10]

Dammit, I forgot an update from last week to port to here.

Okay, I will edit it in this post in a few minutes.




Peace between coldrain and Miro.
Good at first, not an “easy” conquest for Miro.
But then bad, they no longer engage each other.
Miro goes for communism, apparently also with 100%.

I think I should perhaps ask Miro again for longer peace treaties ?




There were only 2 generals with Miro - and 1 with coldrain, but the defeat was a bit bigger.
600 points loss at coldrain, Miro lost ~ 250 points.

But this also shows how I could use the peace.
Gira is actually begging for a visit.




Peace is terminable in 6 turns, so Lixus had 6 turns to take the tile.
Is that enough?

According to the display, Lixus has 54 through CreCon.
That makes 216 generated so far.
Question: Does the bonus culture for the 1st ring already exist in the KE round?
- And are these additive, i.e. +20 with the 2nd KE?
I think yes for both, so 1 round +10 , 3 round +20 for free.
So that makes (216 + 10 + 3*20) = 286 on the field.

This is 30%, so 100% would be just 858 .
So far, so good.

Old pictures (R200) show that Antium and Republic of Rome are both at 40% :4vert, so the 2nd KE each.
So only Republic of Rome contests and should actually be negligible. The influence per turn should be less than 10 . The expected combination of reli, Temple, Monastery, Lib is 6 .

Not ideal, but at +74 per turn for me rather unimportant for me.

When do I get cultural dominance over the tile ?
When my culture occupies more than 50% of the tile culture. In a PB, however, the tile only changes one turn later
An equation can be drawn up with the current values.

286 + 74 * x > (858 + 80 * x) / 2

I'll save the math, just here's the solution.
x > 143/34 <=> x > 4.2
So in 5 turn I should have the majority (52%) and in 6 turns the tile would change.
Probably with ~ 55% for me.

This actually still applies up to 17 from Miro.




As I said, Carthage would be my Kremlin building site. And as you've already seen in the background, I only need 2 turns for communism.

The coal power plant would need 3 turns, I'm not sure if I can risk the 2 turns after finishing communism.
But as I said, I have a GE up my sleeve.




I would have united my wooden ship fleet here now.
I'm a bit short on transports, but I currently have 5 galleons filled with grenadiers, muskets and infantry.
Diomede is one of the best guarded border towns.
But if I load up a few cannons, it should be fine.

Gira will probably get some espionage now, because he is preventing research insight.




And in T207 we see, that Miro was able to match me with communism and that Miro rejected my longer nap offer.

[xist10]

The game paused a bit after the server had a problem.

Anyway, the game did continue yesterday evening (for me) and we rolled the new turn right now.

I and Miro both got Communism in T208 and I won the coin toss.
This mean, we both start Kreml at the same time and I thought, we both had a GE, so this would be the next coin toss.

I did got to use the pause, because I remebert that I didn't found Miro GE in T207.
And if I've got it right in my head, Miro shouldn't have a GE at the moment.
Miro founded Mining and, as far as I know, has only received one GE so far. So the GE was used for mining.

So I'll have to go through the Chinese cities and see how long Miro will probably need on a regular basis.

Because if I don't use the GI, the chance of my 3rd GA increases slightly.
I have ~30% chance of getting the 3rd GA with the GP from Thapsus.
40% for a merchant for Cereals, ~ 30% chance for another GE. -> Then I would use a GE for Kremlin.
In 70% of the cases I would have to wait for the next but one GP. I think that would be ~30 turns and a high chance of not getting a Spy or GE.

If I get the Physics Scientist (difficult if Miro pushes that next), I can use the GE without problems.
It wouldn't matter what comes from Thapsus next turn, the GP after next at the latest should be enough. I can better keep the pool free of scientist points.

Still, even in this case I would be better if I don't need to use the GE, because than the 3rd GA is already secured.


Anyway, I did got log in in the game.
I just went through the log.
Miro has only gotten one GI so far, which founded Mining.

So I can calculate the normal building time and don't need to fear a GE coin toss.




Kremlin costs 800 , with the coal power plant I would have 150% bonus, without at least 100%.
I currently have 43 , with the cows this would increase to 46 .
Without coal power plant, I need 400 before bonuses. After 8 rounds I would have 368 , so I would be 32 short, so it would only be 9 rounds instead of the 10 shown here.
After 7 rounds there would be 322 , so 78 missing, so should be able to shorten this to 8 rounds with a bigger whip (6 ?).

If I calculate with the coal power plant, it would be 320 before bonuses.

I can now whip the coal power plant Pop2 (coasts) and would then have 70 (after bonuses) overflow. This would then be reduced to 35 before bonuses.
This leaves 285 .
This would currently be 7 rounds.
After 5 rounds I would have 230 . I should be able to achieve the missing 55 with a medium whip (4 ), which would reduce the time to 6 rounds.

What do I learn? Coal power plant first is worthwhile - regardless of a whip - and I can finish Kremlin in 7 turns. - I calculated with 15 per for the wonder whip.

Before I look at the Chinese cities now, I want to calculate what Miro would need to beat me.
Miro has a 75% bonus - forge and stone.

That makes 458 before bonuses.

So without surplus and/or slavery, a whole 66 per turn before bonuses.
Okay, I'm safe, I think.

Let's calculate a feasible worst case and say Miro can save 4 turns with surplus and slavery.
For 11 rounds of building, it would still take 42 at Miro (Miro has one more mining resource, I would have 11 ).
So that makes 30 per round from terrain.




There are 2 cities that come into question.
Small World would even come to ~50 after mining. Makes a building time of 10 turns raw and ~6 turns in the worst case.




Antium would be candidate number 2 in my eyes.
“Only” ~40 in total, so actually also slightly outside expectations.

This makes 12 turn regularly, so in the “worst case” with 8 turns too slow.

Other cities look worse - I only looked at the Mining cities.

Conversely, I will probably have the GS from Physics for sure if Miro now goes on assembly line.

This changes the calculation a bit. I don't have to budget so much with the anymore, I would get the 3rd GA from Carthage in ~ 30 turns.
Conversely, the 30 turns are long, so it might be better to use the GI I have now.

Anyway, a lot depends on the from Thapsus. I'll end the round.




Okay, that clears it up.
I'm going to use a GE. I still use a GE for the pentagon, but I do not want to risk the Kremlin.

Damn. That's probably means, I don't get Cereals. The next realistic chance for a merchant is over 30 turns away.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[xist10]

I did used the GE.

I do think Cereals could be stronger, but I don't want to complain about the Kremlin and the semi secure Scientist.




My next GP would be Hadrentum.
And I do question whether I should invest in a merchant.
1/3 remains, I has 2/3 merchant points.
As such, I have a 2/9 chance for a merchant in 20 (13 with GA) turns ?

[xist10]

Rule question:
We (Miro and I) have not been 100% precise with the turn order in peace and the reload did muddle things a bit.
Still, we are at the same turn order as during the war.
Conversely, I have greater advantages in the current situation if I am first to move - first strike rights.
I'm allowed to make a double move right now to give me the first mover next turn (if Miro don't make a own double move) ?

[Cornflakes]

Rule question:
We (Miro and I) have not been 100% precise with the turn order in peace and the reload did muddle things a bit.
Still, we are at the same turn order as during the war.
Conversely, I have greater advantages in the current situation if I am first to move - first strike rights.
I'm allowed to make a double move right now to give me the first mover next turn (if Miro don't make a own double move) ?

Yes, you may double move to become the first mover on the turn before you declare war. But Miro may make his own double move back into first mover as long as he doesn't declare war.

However if either of you is intentionally delaying the game in order to get into an advantageous order rather than playing within a normal play time, that is against the spirit of the rule, especially if that would result in poor turn times for the duration of the war.

[greenline]

What are your plans now that you have Kremlin?

[xist10]

Yes, you may double move to become the first mover on the turn before you declare war. But Miro may make his own double move back into first mover as long as he doesn't declare war.

However if either of you is intentionally delaying the game in order to get into an advantageous order rather than playing within a normal play time, that is against the spirit of the rule, especially if that would result in poor turn times for the duration of the war.

The important bit was not to be first mover, but to deny Miro the ability to declare the war - something he got because you all answered too late .

I have a few pictures where I do show why this could be important in my german thread.
I will port this tomorrow.


And The Kremlin was mostly to deny it to Miro. I do think I lack a bit of production, but I missed my chance for a food corporation 2 times in a row.