Gobble, gobble, comrades - Sultan Chev steers Turkey

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I havne't been nearly as active on the diplomatic wires as I probably should be if I want to really win this game, but weekends are hard to spend in front of a computer sending messages a lot. Easier for me, ironically, on weekdays (when not traveling). 

Anyway, for Turkey there's a bit of a tactical puzzle to solve with Nauf surrounding Serbia and Greece. See, at the moment I only have two units against his two in the theater, so if he decides to focus on me and devote only one unit each to slowing down Italy & Russia he can actually stalemate things quite a bit. I have fresh units coming, but crucially it's the fleet that will arrive first and that's of limited use. Thus I have to be careful. For example, if I attack Greece the most natural way - Serbia supports Bulgaria to Greece, giving me two units on the frontline at Albania, there's a fairly simple path for Austria to carve their way out through Serbia:



That nets out to two units holding Bul/Greece facing two holding Serbia/Budapest - no net gain for me and in fact I can't force my way back to Serbia without Russia supporting via an attack on Budapest. Possible, but not something I want to rely on. 

Conversely, if I order Serbia to move to Greece with Bulgaria's support, not only do I march AWAY from the Austrian core, but I also still face a possibility of being locked out of Serbia - in this case, with a simple attack from Budapest, while Greece is dislodged and retreats to Albania. I do stalemate the "Budapest helps Greece escape" plan, like so:


So that's the same as holding. But it loses to anything else, like Budapest attacking Serbia:




This scenario would be worst of all, as Russia can't even help me get Serbia back and I have another guessing game at Greece in the fall.

So, a Greek attack in the spring essentially comes down to a coin flip against Nauf's tactics: Does he support Greece -> Serbia and try to extract his army aggressively? That would work against a naive Turkey - does he think that of me? Or does he do the simpler but still effective Budapest -> Serbia eitehr with Greek support or retreating to Albania? Or does he devote Budapest to trying to hold Galicia for another turn and this whole exercise is academic? 

No, I have a way that should avoid most chances of loss while still gaining ground. I'll simply hold Serbia in the spring, denying nauf any chance of gaining ground there and letting him reveal his hand, all while my fleets wheel into position to take Greece in the fall. There'll still be a small guessing game there in the fall, but less so than the spring. Thus, my current solution:



So much for the tactics. Then I really should get back to messaging people, if I want to know what's going on and if I want to actually influence things. But...I haven't the time today! Sorry, lurkers.

[T-hawk]

I liked that analysis write up. We get so focused on the diplomacy in this game of course, but there's also a tactical war game under there too.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Well, now Italy is reporting that Austria told him he'll send his fleet to Albania this phase. That would mean Nauf dedicating fully 3 of 4 units to stop me from gaining ground, defending the peripheral territory of Greece at the expense of, well, his three home centers. That's possible, and even would make sense as a sort of attempt to leverage me away from Russia - "Abandon this war or else Russia gets everything while I make sure you get nothing!", except I've received no such communication from Austria yet. Could just be spite, too, though I hardly stabbed him any worse than anyone else did. Perhaps my diplomacy is the worst of Italy & Russia?

Or he's lying to Cyneheard, or Cyneheard's lying to me. All possibilities. I COULD move from Serbia to Albania, bouncing the attempt, or ending still adjacent to Serbia & Greece, except I still have a very difficult defense of Serbia in that case, so I'm no better than when I started. Better to act as if the report is false, and if it's true problem-solve from there.

And, as always, hope scooter stays on-side. If he's not I'm dead regardless so no sense worrying about it.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

T-Hawk's got the spring moves in, and there's a lot of surprises for me, at least. 

In the west, France obviously stabs England, the new fleet in Brest seizing the channel while his Mediterranean forces sail for the Atlantic. England is more or less immediately dead - his single army in the home isles can defend London OR Liverpool but not both, as the French fleet should be able to sail unopposed into the Irish Sea. He's also going to convoy that army in Picardy into Wales, I expect. England, who opted to continue the attack on Germany by trying to seize Holland himself (via sailing into Heligoland and then supporting himself from the North Sea after that), absolutely cannot defend Scandinavia from Russia/Germany, can't take the low countries off Germany/France - his only chance of survival at all is to immediately make peace with scooter/klops (probably selling Norway to Russia, although it's not like he can hold it anyway). So figure Adrien is on his way out. 

Germany cut a deal with France, being supported into Holland, while the fleet in Berlin takes the rarely-used Kiel Canal and is positioned to force his way towards hte North Sea now. Scooter, interestingly, holds. He watches it play out, while his main forces shift towards Austria. 

Italy walks into Trieste unopposed, takes the Adriatic, and moves his other army up to Rome while taking the Ionian. Nauf could have prevented any of those, but instead he sends his fleet to Albania as Cyneheard warned me, while also attempting to cut his way out of Greece as I thought he might. I stopped that blow, but now with the fleet in place he's STILL matching me in force in the south. Austria committed 3/4 of his available forces to slowing down Turkey, so my best guess is that scooter & Cyne are being much more assiduous diplomatically than I am. Alas, it's a failing in my game, to be sure, but I just haven't the time to engage much beyond ordering the moves. 

Now, I can still take Greece, but not without risking Serbia, still. I do desperately need it as I need a third fleet to force the Ionian sea - and hope that Italy doesn't get a third fleet himself from Trieste, otherwise I will be stuck in the west until we can drive Italy out of Trieste. When he'll probably disband an army instead, out of spite.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

So, it looked to me like the concentration in Albania and Italy's move to Trieste & Adriatic, when Austria could have trivially stopped it, like the budding of an anti-Turkish coalition between the two, with the prospect of Russia joining in to dismember me. Well, those prospects looked pretty bleak, and frankly it's still on the table. Even if Scooter doesn't actively attack (if he does, I am dead), he simply has to passively sit by and I'll be stalemated against Austria with Italian support. I didn't think they'd rapidly make amends after Italy stabbed last fall, but that's the game. Anyway, Scooter HAS been in touch with Italy, and he offers me the best way out of the dilemma, if true. If not, dead anyway, so no worrying about it.

Here's the relevant exchange, which also has my tactical plans for the season:




Serbia moves to Albania, effectively cutting any support that fleet can provide. Italy COULD support-move it to Greece from Ionian, except I've ordered EAS to attack ION, which negates any support moves or support holds that fleet could offer. With Albania and ION neutralized, I just need a single point of support to take Greece, which is offered by Bulgaria, as I convoy my Constantinople army to Greece. That lets me retain Aegean and keep two fleets on Italy next year. Greece is unable to support Budapest moving to Serbia, while Budapest should be prevented from supporting Greece to Serbia by Scooter's attack on the province from Galicia. 

Obviously, Italy could fuck all this up - if Trieste supports an attack on Serbia instead, if the attack on Albania actually succeeds somehow (only because the fleet moved elsewhere, though where he'd go I don't know), then Budapest could retreat to Serbia and capture it just before winter, etc. But if Italy tries to double-cross Austria by supporting Scooter's attack on him while supporting him against me, this set of moves should account for it. We can hope that Italy does indeed act that way, since scooter can dangle further promises of cooperation against Turkey over his head if he doesn't play ball. 

In an ideal world, Austria loses everything except Vienna and is irrelevant. Italy is able to stall me for a long time until I can kick him out of Trieste, then slowly grind through the Ionian chokepoint with my fleets. Oh, and I neatly set up the prospect of a false attack from Russia leading to the disbandment of the Russian fleet. 

Clearly, my entire prospect of survival & success depend on Russia, which sucks, but that's the breaks when you play Turkey. Just have to keep riding the wave to break through my enemies, and then hope I have the chance to stab later.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Fall 1902:

Complete success! Scooter's intelligence comes through again, and Italy's attempted double-cross of me and Austria sees most of the fallout land on Austria. Let me break down the complicated welter of moves, starting in the Balkans:



Austria: Austria ordered an attack on Bulgaria from Greece, presumably to cut any support Bulgaria could offer Serbia. He supported Italy to Greece from the Ionian using his Adriatic fleet, which had Italy cooperated (and I mismanaged my own Serbian army) would have saved Greece for him. Budapest marched on Serbia with expected support from Trieste, I think, and Vienna to Budapest to cover. Sadly, every single move failed, mostly through Italian treachery - Italy did NOT support the move to Serbia, which was key and would have compensated for his loss of Greece. 

Instead, Italy supported Russia to Budapest as scooter wrote, marched another army into Trieste, and attempted to seize Albania (presumably to get another force adjacent to Greece in spring 1903). The attack on Budapest succeeded, but the rest of Italy's moves failed as my own arrangements, aided by the superior Okhrana intelligence, enabled me to retain Serbia and conquer Greece, leapfrogging an army up to the front in the process, a neat resolution to the difficult 1902 puzzles we faced down here in the southeast. 

The northern front's cluster:


As expected France orders landings in Wales, while pin's other fleets steam for England's backdoor and Gascony holds in its flexible reserve position, able to reinforce any threatened French sector. England successfully repels the invasion, but it's a temporary reprieve as his rear lines are collapsing with the French in the north Atlantic and German/Russian fleets lining the fringe of the North Sea. Scooter casually picks up Norway for the Russian Empire. Adrien really needs to get one of the three to flip sides, and France isn't likely to given his commanding position now. 

Germany plays oddly passively, content to claim Holland and defend Denmark to the utmost, picking up one build. I should work to wedge Germany and France apart if I can, now. 

So, to sum up, scooter has pulled it off again. Two years in a row now his timely intelligence has enabled me to completely scuttle attempted anti-Turkish combinations in the south, and I've picked up three centers in the Balkans despite the opposition of two other powers. That's why the name of the game is Diplomacy and not Tactics, of course - his superior messaging with Austria in 1901 and now Italy in 1902 is what caused this, not any clever moves on my part. So, really if you want to get better his messages are going to be the place to look, I've been abysmal at that part of the game this time around. 

Going forward, I hope 1903 can develop as I have proposed to Russia - the disbandment of his southern fleet, while tricky to execute and HIGHLY reliant upon trust, makes Turkey MUCH more secure while giving Russia an extra unit to play with elsewhere. I'm hoping scooter goes for it over the easy temptation to stab since I've been an honest, steadfast, and reliable partner, and I do still offer the prospect of a Russian solo, while Italy would be offering a three-way draw with France most likely. For my part, I'm still hitched to his wagon until that fleet is gone, but once it is I WILL have one or two fleeting opportunities to try to unseat Russia. That's what we're playing for now, while also swinging our tactical attention to the war with Italy. 

Need to message the western powers, particularly France and Germany, more now. Gotta clear that Italian stalemate line and France might be just the ticket.

[El Grillo]

Again, we really appreciate these posts summing up your thoughts and next moves. The order breakdown is also especially helpful for a lurker like me who hasn't actually played Diplomacy in over ten years

[Qgqqqqq]

Seconded. This season in particular is very confusing (what does the yellow NWG mean, for instance?).

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

That's a retreat. The English fleet was dislodged by Scooter's attack from St. Petersburg (supported by Sweden), so he fell back.

I've no idea what Germany was attempting to do, the map is tough to read - lemme check the order log:



...that doesn't make it a whole lot more clear. Presumably Germany MEANT to order Denmark S F (HEL) -> NTH, but why? To ensure England moved out even if France contested? A sign of alliance with England? Was the misorder truly that, or did he accidentally-on-purpose give France the chance to bounce England in the North Sea? Dunno what's going on there.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

So, if you're not on the Discord, scooter and I had a long exchange about how to proceed this year. The partnership has been fruitful - so fruitful, in fact, that we've reached teh stabbing phase, where neither partner now technically "needs" the other to survive, and so the temptation to strike first and wreck them before they grow out of control is there. I can post the lengthy chat logs later, but so far I want to continue to work honestly & forthrightly with Russia. That way leads the most mutual gain (I mean, my own personal politics almost always favor trade & diplomacy over violence in any conflict where possible - trade is positive sum while war is always negative sum, even if you completely conquer the other guy and loot his stuff!), and it'd be nice for a "moral Diplomacy" to work ("Didn't you start out immediately intending to double-cross Austria?" shut up). 

That does lead to a problem, though: Scooter can win without stabbing me at any point. I more or less have to stab him eventually to prevent Russia from soloing - this is the great weakness of the Juggernaut! But of course he knows that and so is both taking measures to secure himself and is no doubt eyeing me to see what'd be the best way to stab, before being stabbed. Thus I need to simultaneously secure my own borders and I need to figure out when his window of vulnerability will be, and I need to do it in the most honest way possible, WITHOUT letting him just walk to a win.

You see the dilemma? So my thinking for now is to ride this at least long enough to break Italy. I want France to be a viable third power, as we reduce Britain, Germany, and Italy (Nauf, having fought valiantly and through no fault of his own against three neighbors, is more or less already a non-factor). Then, when the time comes, I shall arrange things NOT to surprise scooter, especially, but instead to stab enough to draw his forces away from the west and force him to defend against me, thus forcing a three-way draw with France OR negotiate to a two-way draw if he sees that as a better outcome. Will I stab again, to solo? I don't know. That's an ethical/philosophical question I haven't answered for myself yet. You gotta live with yourself, at the end of the day, but you also have to pursue the object of the game, otherwise what's the point in playing? 

Anyway, current plan is to ride with Russia for one more year, possibyl two, then use my Italian builds to force a three-way draw with France, OR leverage that to a two-way draw with scooter.