[PB72 SPOILERS] Aetryn learns humility

[Mjmd]

Ya couple of classics here for people new to multiplayer. Listing these for other newer people.

1) don't send a stack of one movers in enemy more than 1-2 turns once cats are thing. Collateral is the great leveler. Aetryn was surprised that Greenline didn't try to take an engagement and I suspect the reason was collateral.

2) Important turns SLOW down. I've certainly made fast decisions I've ended up regretting plenty.

3) Especially when financial every city looks like a commerce city. A fishing village with financial and colossus looks like a commerce city. 4 commerce water tiles are really really sexy. The problem is not every city can be a commerce city. You need cities to produce units and the few cities you can naturally do this with are usually not enough at this stage in the game. Aetryn was doing precise whip timer counts a lot of places. Its hard to overwhip a city / empire, but there are times to do so and specifically cities to do so. Whips of population are more effective at lower pops (IE less food for whipped hammer / pop), so even commerce cities I'll sometimes keep whipping things into as long as I have other cities helping grow their cottages.

I know some people really hate working cottages over working coast because of payback period problems. For instance when Diligence was founded I stressed it should be a commerce city because it could cottage pretty much every tile. Now it could have been a production city, but very soon with printing press it will easily surpass one of the fishing villages. That extra will then get multiplied by all the multiplier buildings ect. Now in a game you don't expect to go long or need stuff now, this may differ. But I had the feeling game would go long with map type and size, so to me leaning into cottages made sense. Aetryn is actually running into the problem of looking too good on GNP right now and that is only going to get worse!

[aetryn]

Ya couple of classics here for people new to multiplayer. Listing these for other newer people.

1) don't send a stack of one movers in enemy more than 1-2 turns once cats are thing. Collateral is the great leveler. Aetryn was surprised that Greenline didn't try to take an engagement and I suspect the reason was collateral.

2) Important turns SLOW down. I've certainly made fast decisions I've ended up regretting plenty.

3) Especially when financial every city looks like a commerce city. A fishing village with financial and colossus looks like a commerce city. 4 commerce water tiles are really really sexy. The problem is not every city can be a commerce city. You need cities to produce units and the few cities you can naturally do this with are usually not enough at this stage in the game. Aetryn was doing precise whip timer counts a lot of places. Its hard to overwhip a city / empire, but there are times to do so and specifically cities to do so. Whips of population are more effective at lower pops (IE less food for whipped hammer / pop), so even commerce cities I'll sometimes keep whipping things into as long as I have other cities helping grow their cottages.

I know some people really hate working cottages over working coast because of payback period problems. For instance when Diligence was founded I stressed it should be a commerce city because it could cottage pretty much every tile. Now it could have been a production city, but very soon with printing press it will easily surpass one of the fishing villages. That extra will then get multiplied by all the multiplier buildings ect. Now in a game you don't expect to go long or need stuff now, this may differ. But I had the feeling game would go long with map type and size, so to me leaning into cottages made sense. Aetryn is actually running into the problem of looking too good on GNP right now and that is only going to get worse!

Yeah, I'm sure I'm just too used to playing the AI, which doesn't refuse engagements and is very subject to attrition warfare if you have the production edge. I assumed war would be more tactical here, but I don't think I thought it would be fundamentally more about positioning stacks that don't engage vs. trading losses.

I understand slowing down for important turns, but I'm also trying to contain the amount of time and energy I spend on the game to keep my life in balance, and sometimes that means making a quicker decision than I'd ideally like to. If that means I make the occasional blunder, I might just have to live with that.

[Qgqqqqq]

How do you rate your position against the field right now?

Also absolutely support balancing time spent on the game with life. It is just a game, however frustrating it may feel when you miss something. Not necessarily disagreeing with MJ here - it's all about how you balance that when the time comes.

[aetryn]

How do you rate your position against the field right now?

Also absolutely support balancing time spent on the game with life. It is just a game, however frustrating it may feel when you miss something. Not necessarily disagreeing with MJ here - it's all about how you balance that when the time comes.

If I was left alone? At least as good as anyone else. For the last 20 turns or so I've had the best economy in spite of my efforts to make it look smaller, I have Sankore due to finish in a few turns which will add even more science, I still have empty land to settle never mind filler spots, and my happiness situation would have preferred to have gotten a gold from Xist, but isn't in dire straits by any means.

Of course, I won't be left alone. The question is how, when, and how many at the same time.  I can't claim to predict which way that will go. I could fly low enough and Greenline could be stuck into Xist enough that I could be in a Golden Age heading to rifles before the alarm bells go off. Or Greenline could see my power dip from the fights with Xist, also see my GNP graph pulling in front of Bing, and decide next turn to hit me.

The easy choice to make is to trade economy for production whenever possible outside my key commerce cities, while prepping the commerce cities to go nuts in the Golden Age.

Here's the story in two graphs:



There's the power loss from our trades in the east, before the rebound I should get from all the whips I've been doing. But it shows just how far back I am. Hopefully seeing Xist's power fall inspires Greenline to move in and take some fights himself, burning off some of that excess power. But it's clear I can't possibly stand if Bing and Greenline both attack at once at the current level of power.




The spike around 425 is my Golden Age (and Greenline's) - at this point I was doing well but Greenline was doing better. But the spikes around 680 AD are Bing in a Golden Age, and me having a hard time not doing better than him, then being top for a good while after that. Now, to be fair, there's some mitigating circumstances here. Greenline whipped a ton post-Golden Age to build his invasion force, which hurt his economy for a while. Bing was saving gold and possibly upgrading troops after his Golden Age. But basically I don't want to be running 100% science until I'm ready to attack Liberalism. I think the goal will be to hit it in my second Golden Age, which is about 9-12 turns away (depends on how many specialists I want to run at Faith), which seems very doable - I should have Education and moderately full coffers, and should be able to burn Philosophy and Liberalism in the Golden Age and pick up Nationalism for drafting before I lose my chance to swap civics for free.

I find the geopolitics here quite fascinating. I have a GNP threat, but it's not clear (to me, and probably to the other players) exactly how much of a threat it is. Bing and Greenline still have very strong economies. And Greenline is more sandwiched between Bing and I - now that I lost my expedition into Xist lands, I again have no borders touching Bing - does that make it harder for Greenline to attack me with Bing having forces that can attack Greenline in return? Greenline just launched a Golden Age, which will keep him above me in GNP for the next 8 turns for sure, and if he conquers more Roman core when those cities get assimilated he will be very powerful. Maybe I get some goodwill from Greenline for essentially eating the majority of Xist's catapult forces and he focuses for a while on Bing, long enough for me to organize a defense, prep my Golden Age, and make a run at Rifles. It feels like we could go in any direction next - Bing and Greenline against me, Bing and I against Greenline, or even Greenline and I against Bing.

If I do survive to Rifles without getting invaded, I don't know where the game goes from there. It could possibly go very long if no clear leader emerges to dogpile and nobody wants to start a war fearing the uninvolved person will then be able to just tech away. I THINK I have a long-term advantage the longer the game goes just due to Financial, with maybe Bing's Aggressive being equally useful economically if armies get big enough. But if it's only a modest advantage it might not be enough to clearly signal Bing and Greenline to unite against me. If this goes all the way to modern war it's going to get REALLY messy as suddenly all those safe mountain borders might be vulnerable to air warfare.

[aetryn]

T158-162: Greenline surges ahead

Domestic Affairs:
Two new cities join the empire...




That is downright terrible terrain, including a totally non-exist second ring in the north, but two deer are nothing to sneeze at. It's probably just a whipping/drafting location forever plus a site to build religious buildings. Piety is the virtue of demonstrating love for God via actions, much as you might demonstrate love for a spouse by telling them you love them or doing the dishes or buying flowers or ministering to them when they are ill. Piety doesn't have to mean conventional piety, but for those who question the value of repeated actions as formulaic or meaningless, I ask: Do your spouses generally object when you say "I love you" that you're just repeating the same words you've said a hundred times before? Sure, it might be better to demonstrate love in a creative or new fashion, but the most important thing is to demonstrate love.




And the new location of Courage. It's worth it establishing a border city here even without claiming gold, as now that Bing is down here I want to have a buffer pushing back on his culture in the area. It's basically a fishing village, but any location with a new food resource is a good city at this point.

Courage is a component of Fortitude that is particularly directed towards doing the right thing when the most significant barrier is fear (Fortitude is more general). Obviously Courage is very important in armed service which is why I put it in a warzone. My stack was very courageous right before it got slaughtered by a flank attack from Bing.

I'm pivoting off of unit builds to build Banks in preparation for my Golden Age. I have sufficient defenders where I need them, my ability to actually win anything further in this war is remote, and it's kind of more important to prepare for the rush to Rifles and build (and draft) more military then. Some cities will stay on military builds, but especially the key commerce cities need a round of buildings (or to just stop whipping and grow).

Military Affairs:

The war continues in the south. Greenline took advantage of the damage I did to Xist's stack and thrust to the east, threatening Neapolis, where there were some Pikemen defenders on duty but no catapults and Xist's stack was too far away to reach (and still healing!). This time Greenline burnt Neapolis to the ground, and I spotted a settler moving in a way that suggests he will resettle it slightly further away from the border with me, which is certainly good for me.

In response, Xist moved his stack out back to the west, presumably to guard his holy city. Greenline spent a turn or two moving further in, but in the most recent turn has reversed course and is now in retreat. This suggests to me that the holy city is unlikely to fall any time soon, and that Greenline will be absorbed in cleaning up the rest of Xist for the next 20 or so turns. I'll look at what this means later in the Foreign Affairs section.

Bing also jumped back into the war and is probably down near the southern city, which would give him a pretty clean border with Greenline assuming Greenline eats the remaining bits of Rome eventually.

Since Setia was empty, I moved to burn it. I can't really hold it with the holy city culture so dominant and I don't want to commit the forces to guard it right now. It's likely I should have burnt it the first time, but I expected the Roman holy city to fall about 20 turns ago.

The current situation:



I will start moving some forces back west, since it's highly unlikely Xist is going to come back here with pretty much the entire region lost to him. And while Bing DID declare war on me a few turns ago to kill my stack, I had written those troops off anyway so I don't really feel like this was an indication of unremitting hostility between us. Thus I'd be better served packing more troops into Prudence. If Greenline stumbles for long enough, do I even consider marching south from Prudence? Probably not at the current military generation.

A scout spotted one of Bing's border cities. That's a lot of pointy sticks in Tula!



Foreign Affairs:
Greenline launched another Golden Age after hitting Banking. In my previous assessment of game state I thought the three non-Xist players were all pretty much even. I had forgotten that Greenline had Pyramids and that Mercantalism+Representation would be a huge power spike for him. So I'm revising that; He's clearly in the lead. He hasn't really claimed any amazing Roman lands yet, as the best land that Xist had were his 2 southern cities and his Holy City, none of which has fallen yet. But I assume he will mop this up and it would be REALLY hard for either Bing or I to hold any of that land, so it's probably his whenever he wants to clean it up. He also has some very cold lands in the north to settle if he just needs city count. So I think he's clearly ahead right now - which is largely expected given that he's right in the middle of his military power spike combined with the highest economic power spike from Pyramids. If he gets enough land and uses it well, he's the frontrunner going forward. Of course, in a 3 horse race you can't just be the frontrunner, you have to be the MASSIVE frontrunner, and I don't think he's there yet. He just researched Alphabet, so I can see his tech:




I'm up Theology and Meditation (and most of Education, likely) and he's up Alphabet. But he's also burned a couple turns of his second golden age already, and I haven't yet. The Alphabet play suggests to me he might be going straight to Rifles, since mostly Alphabet gets overlooked until needed for Printing Press. This, plus his reluctance to engage Xist's remaining defensive stack, suggests he might wait to finish off Xist with Rifles. Is this scary? Well, it's scary any time a foe gets to Rifles. But I think I'm well positioned to follow, with my own Golden Age to follow with Banks and some Universities already up by the time it hits. I think I have a strong chance to win the Liberalism race and not be too far behind to Rifles, if at all. Bing is the unknown factor.

While I don't have Alphabet, I do have a good idea what Bing has because I've had tech visibility on him for ages (mostly due to accidentally leaving most of my points against him). He's up Aesthetics and Literature, and down Theology, Civil Service (researching now), Paper, and most of Education. I saw Bing briefly on Gunpowder, and he's obviously closest to Music so could potentially bring Curassiers into play before either of us get to Rifles. And I don't want to underestimate the value of Bing's extra Golden Age turns - they should help him a lot. Still, I think Bing has fallen behind Greenline now, which slightly edges me in the direction of wanting to establish some relations with him in case we need to work together against Greenline in the future.

So I sent him a deal where I give Spices and Wine and he gives Gems and Sugar. He didn't take this deal. He instead sent me a deal where I give him Sheep and Open Borders for Sugar and Open Borders, which looks like a favorable deal to me, so I took it. Maybe it's a gesture of reconciliation after killing my stack, or maybe Bing just desperately needs Open Borders for commerce (given we were just at war though, how useful are those routes REALLY going to be?). Unfortunately I strongly suspect this deal will end after 10 turns because I will be in Mercantalism soon and the trade will be 100% useless. I also sent him a map trade deal, since I don't think he has ever had Open Borders with Greenline and may be interested in his territory, and I have never seen most of his land. This is probably a bad idea since I have structural weakness inside my own territory (the Western Valley being cut off from my core except by a very tenuous southern road and a single boat ferry) that I don't really want to advertise, but I'm 99.99% sure Bing has scouted this land because I kept teleporting his scout around as I settled pieces of the Western Valley.

Xist is down to 5 cities, one of which is highly likely to fall to Bing in the immediate future. He's basically a dead man walking, even if we wait to research Rifles to actually put him down with.

[Mjmd]

About Piety. Before anyone asks I am wondering if this game will go on long enough for that 2nd spot near Piety to be worth settling / if should have just settled first ring. If it does go on that long we will be really glad for random extra cities. See Monk wonders / corps. Definitely a stonehenge flex. Although a missionary would be nice, but lot of competing needs.

[aetryn]

About Piety. Before anyone asks I am wondering if this game will go on long enough for that 2nd spot near Piety to be worth settling / if should have just settled first ring. If it does go on that long we will be really glad for random extra cities. See Monk wonders / corps. Definitely a stonehenge flex. Although a missionary would be nice, but lot of competing needs.

Yeah, I think the next missionary has to go to Courage first since establishing culture there is pretty critical. By the time a Missionary is built and at Piety, it will nearly have popped borders anyway.

[aetryn]

T163-167: 5 turns in one day

I don't know how we managed to play 5 turns in a single day with a 2-way turn split, but we did! Really, the reason they went so fast is that these were transition turns and not much was happening, so I'll summarize below.

Golden Ages Pile Up:

Bing started his second Golden Age while Greenline's continues. Bing's are extended by Mausoleum and he also picked off the Great Artist from Music, so we should assume we're looking at 24 turns straight of Golden Bingtecs. My second Golden Age is due Turn 168, right after Greenline's ends so there's a lot of gold around these days. This has some major implications for overall geopolitics I'll get to after the news segment.

War Stalemated:

Greenline has retreated to his newly founded city of Njal's Saga (in the place of Neapolis) and shows no intention of pushing at the current tech level. It looks like plans to come back with Rifles (or Cannon?) and finish the job later. I'm not making any further moves, but managed to lose a worker to a Xist chariot through boneheaded play. I should probably send him a peace offer at this point since Greenline isn't pushing and I'm not either, so neither of us should be bothered by the other taking 10 turns off. It's unclear whether Xist will accept this, but it's probably worth trying.

Bingtec Culture Dominant:

Some of Greenline's conquests probably aren't helping him as much as he maybe thought they would:



I assume Ardea eventually gets its sheep back but probably not the fish. In the meantime this city has almost no food, so it's not going to be very useful.

Map-Sharing Accord Approved:
The Bingtecs and Malian Empires announced their cooperation in charting the globe by exchanging geographical data. "We shall know all the hills, valleys, plains, and seas of this fair land," said a spokesman for the Malian Royal Society, "except the one tile inaccessible valleys the Divine Mapmaker left in for some strange reason. Maybe one day we will be able to make maps from the sky!"

East Bingtecia:



West Bingtecia:



That's some nice starting land (which explains how he kept up with IMP) with two flood plains valleys. Looks generally more open than what I had to deal with. But on the other hand, I had (still have!) blank land to settle that Bing lacks.

Domestic Golden Age preparations:
I picked up Education, then saved gold for the rest of these turns (with 4 banks completed, and another one completing during this period) to spend on the Golden Age. I expect 3 universities to finish by Turn 169, which should help the Golden Age tech push. Many of my important cities were regrowing these turns from the whipping I'd done after losing my eastern army to Xist/Bing. I whipped a few of the newer cities a couple times to get some infrastructure in place, but will largely avoid whipping during the Golden Age (and probably switch to Serfdom, as others have done). University of Sankore finally completed, boosting my research by about 5 beakers a city where I had both religious buildings constructed! Not too shabby.

Geopolitics and other thoughts:
So, to review, my current problem is that my commerce looked to be pulling ahead perhaps too strongly due to Financial, Colossus, University of Sankore, and good multiplier infrastructure in my key cities, while my power continues to massively trail the other two relevant players. The concern was that I look like a runaway tech leader who's also exceedingly vulnerable, Bing and Greenline agree to attack me and roll over me before I can realize a tech lead and do something with it (like draft lots of rifles to defend myself). The "good news" in that regard is that these Golden Ages, and the probably permanent nature of Greenline's Representation-Mercantlist beaker boost, will make me look like MUCH less of a tech leader. I think I still probably have the raw research edge when all things are equal (especially since nobody else will have universities for a while), but it won't be as obvious. In particular, Bing's long golden ages will make Greenline think he is at least as much of a threat as me. Any attack on me without Greenline's cooperation should be defendable - Bing would have to severely weaken his core and we have a tiny border. In particular, Bing and Greenline share a longish border right near their respective cores and have not been friendly all game. It's very hard to conceive of Bing and Greenline cooperating to kill me with that level of tension, Bing's inability to actually gain much off such a war, and the potential for backstabs unless I'm a clear and present threat to run away. It's also fairly hard to conceive of Greenline being willing to attack me while still not having finished off Xist and not having to leave a lot of troops around to defend against Bing - though he largely hasn't so far, based on the garrisons I see at his cities. But I think Bing can't possibly let Greenline kill me also without intervening. Basically this is a lot of rambling saying I think I have about a 20 turn window here where I shouldn't need to worry too much about being invaded and can prepare for the next phase of the game. That doesn't mean I completely stop building military - I definitely want some more catapults - but it doesn't have to be my focus despite the power deficit I still have.

For technology, Greenline recently picked up Alphabet, Printing Press, and Replaceable Parts, so that's a Rifling beeline. Bing picked up his Civil Service deficit, then picked up Music and Alphabet. Odds are Bing is following Greenline to Rifles. How do I plan to respond to this? Well, I've been planning to build Taj Mahal, so I'd better get to Nationalism. I have a good window here since Greenline is currently elsewhere and Bing probably actively wants to duck it until he's fired his third Golden Age. This should help equalize the Golden Age turns a bit more with Bing if I can build that wonder. Since I need Philosophy first, that leaves me well equipped to get Liberalism. I could get Liberalism and take Nationalism, but since there seems to be no immediate competition for Liberalism, maybe I should prefer to research Nationalism myself and save Liberalism for a bigger beaker cost. After that, I will probably follow to Rifles, since both Printing Press and Replaceable Parts will be good for my economy. I should benefit some from following 2 other players to Rifles, and will also get the double prerequisite bonus for Gunpowder, so I don't expect to be that many turns behind. I'd also love to pick up Divine Right and maybe build Spiral Minaret to complete the Monk trio, but we'll see if that is even workable. I think with the opportunity to draft, not getting to Rifles too many turns behind the others, and the difficult position Greenline would be in to attack me with Bing right on his back, I will be okay. I will probably come back to this post in a couple weeks and weep.

Oh, and Greenline ended his Golden Age still in Serfdom, so he's not looking for immediate military production it looks like.

[Qgqqqqq]

What would you take with liberalism?

[aetryn]

What would you take with liberalism?

I'm still thinking about it. Up until yesterday I was operating on the assumption that I'd have to take Nationalism. There's still a decent chance I might have to cash it in while still on the Rifling follow-up path. I assume my opponents won't just let me leave it out there hanging until I can take something REALLY good with it , so I haven't gotten too excited yet. It's definitely not going to be Astronomy though! Only reason I'd research that is if this somehow turns into a space race and I need Satellites to build a spacecraft (not very likely).