[SPOILERS] swans will bite u

[ljubljana]

omg, i never would have thought of that! you know what, i might do exactly that in their position. especially if the sumeria alliance buffs don't come online until civil service, then maybe the path to victory becomes....do SOME pillaging but don't go all out, just enough to accelerate yourself towards CS and stockpile upgrade gold without provoking a dogpile, then try to kill everyone once the +5 and shared pillage rewards come online. it could work!

the problem there is they would then be facing down either Jongs or Japan + Naus with nothing but blank frigavels - +5 is well and good, but that would only put them on equal footing with us while they will have a huge CS advantage in the longship era unless we do otherwise kinda stupid stuff like opening Victor 3 and pumping out a bazillion galleys. i suppose they would have an edge over Woden/Banzai, but a) they have that with an even larger margin at longships and b) the operating theory behind that team is presumably that once oppidia and RNDs come online they will make up for lower ship quality by outmassing everyone.

but what else could they be planning? are they seriously going to bet on themselves to win a 3v1 with 51-strength longship spam? i mean, that could work too, but they'll have to move really fast and conquer someone whole before the other teams can get it together. it could totally happen, but that's why we and hopefully also chev + woden will open with as much galley spam as we can get away with until it becomes clear that they are not going this route...

[ljubljana]

i don't really care too much about the specifics of the map settings tbh. just please don't leave, thrawn - my fragile self-image demands another chance to get my teeth kicked in by you

I admit part of me has been screaming 'what are you doing' ever since I made the first post and would welcome any opportunity to step out. I'm not one to flake and will still have a lot of fun if we play, but if Krill is also feeling civver's remorse and would like to save himself the time and the others to do a 3-team, I will take you on it.

lol i HAD to say it, didn't i

why do they think i signed up for this game, anyways?

of course i would never ever ever leave a team with TAD on it and williams, ginger, AND amica as dedlurkers but i will be really bummed if this turns into a 3-teamer. i mean, those are barely functional diplomatically and would probably just turn into a big stupid triangular stalemate. which we'd be heavily favored to win i guess as the lategamiest pairing here but ugh, what's the point if there's no thrawn

[williams482]

the problem there is they would then be facing down either Jongs or Japan + Naus with nothing but blank frigavels - +5 is well and good, but that would only put them on equal footing with us while they will have a huge CS advantage in the longship era unless we do otherwise kinda stupid stuff like opening Victor 3 and pumping out a bazillion galleys. i suppose they would have an edge over Woden/Banzai, but a) they have that with an even larger margin at longships and b) the operating theory behind that team is presumably that once oppidia and RNDs come online they will make up for lower ship quality by outmassing everyone.

Well, Jongs aren't all that special once everyone has frigates. They get the +5 from being in a formation, but that's just a slightly trickier version of the Sumerian +5 that doesn't also apply to caravels. And everyone in this game knows that Indonesia is all about that Jong timing attack, and knows that Chevalier is absolutely going to go for it unless everyone is so built up that it looks suicidal. We also have good reason to think everyone is going to be pretty invested in defense forces, which will make that Jong attack more costly and somewhat less likely to succeed. All this is an opportunity waiting to happen. 

Build a strong empire, maintain a comparable looking fleet to everyone else but invest those governor titles in econ stuff. Quickly chop out great lighthouse somewhere not all players will be able to see it. Time the GA/DA stuff to make sure Twilight Valor is available in whatever period you expect to attack. Tech towards frigates as fast as possible and plan, with the expectation of pivoting elsewhere when circumstances change, to smash into Chevalier's cities a turn or two after he either takes someone else's city, or you detect ship losses from his milpower changes. Or join Chevalier in carving up his target, if it looks like the pillages will be better there. Or tech frigates faster than the third team and come after them with a tech edge. Etc. Every team has an advantage in mid/lategame naval combat, but none of them (including Sumeria's +5!) are so strong that they overpower what everyone else has, or even match edges from technological progress or tactical execution. 

I think what it really comes down to for Thrawn/Krill is making sure they aren't the first to commit to a war. Do that and they stand a real chance of being dogpiled, but wait for someone else (almost certainly Indonesia!) to land the first blow somewhere else, and they can capitalize with far less risk. 

What does this mean for us? I'm not quite sure. We need to prioritize defense against the aggressive raiding we anticipated as soon as Thrawn made his pick, but we should be very careful not to hurt our long term outlook too much in doing so. Portugal will help with that; they are stupid good if left undisturbed and the trade route income they will generate covers for a lot of econ woes in Pingalaless Japan. On the political side we should avoid doing anything that commits us to an anti-Thrawn coalition until we have a better idea of the strategy that team actually plans to employ, although I suspect that will be easy as outside of DoFs (which we will be avoiding as best we can anyway) there actually isn't much we could do to tie our hands in that direction.

[TheArchduke]

i don't really care too much about the specifics of the map settings tbh. just please don't leave, thrawn - my fragile self-image demands another chance to get my teeth kicked in by you

I admit part of me has been screaming 'what are you doing' ever since I made the first post and would welcome any opportunity to step out. I'm not one to flake and will still have a lot of fun if we play, but if Krill is also feeling civver's remorse and would like to save himself the time and the others to do a 3-team, I will take you on it.

lol i HAD to say it, didn't i

why do they think i signed up for this game, anyways?

of course i would never ever ever leave a team with TAD on it and williams, ginger, AND amica as dedlurkers but i will be really bummed if this turns into a 3-teamer. i mean, those are barely functional diplomatically and would probably just turn into a big stupid triangular stalemate. which we'd be heavily favored to win i guess as the lategamiest pairing here but ugh, what's the point if there's no thrawn

I agree but Thrawn really needs to chill. Like seriously.

[ljubljana]

I agree but Thrawn really needs to chill. Like seriously.

haha, to be honest, i'm kind of a sucker for a little mild-to-moderate pre-game drama. really enhances the experience of going toe to toe w them later, as long as it doesn't disrupt the actual game

hmm. maybe i should start more drama......

[ljubljana]

Well, Jongs aren't all that special once everyone has frigates. They get the +5 from being in a formation, but that's just a slightly trickier version of the Sumerian +5 that doesn't also apply to caravels. And everyone in this game knows that Indonesia is all about that Jong timing attack, and knows that Chevalier is absolutely going to go for it unless everyone is so built up that it looks suicidal. We also have good reason to think everyone is going to be pretty invested in defense forces, which will make that Jong attack more costly and somewhat less likely to succeed. All this is an opportunity waiting to happen.

yup yup! though, ok, indonesia/phoenicia will also have a quantitative advantage over the field in frigate numbers, since they are the only team that can build them niter-less. unlike the rest of the teams, who will be upgrading 1 frigate per turn on our 10-ish niter income from the turn we get SR, Phoenicia will do that all by themselves while indonesia can add a huge wave of jongs to that. they are the only civ whose frigate numbers are likely to be gold-limited instead of niter-limited and that's a big advantage. although in return we will have a TON of highly-promoted caravel-class units to throw around since we have finite niter but infinite gold - we may not have the most frigates come t100 but i am confident we can translate the most gold into the most total ships if we survive the galley era intact. and woden/banzai will have england's RND gold and woden bootstrapping oppidia into lighthouses.

of all teams, i think thrawn/krill is the most likely to struggle with the logistics of assembling a giant frigavel fleet. they have the +5 which is a big advantage, but it will go up in smoke if they can't secure a great admiral, and how will they do that with neither half-cost harbors nor boatloads of Portuguese gold? they will be fast to square rigging with ziggurats, but faster than free inq england? or portugal with free inq AND 12 free beakers from trade routes? i don't know. and financially they are by FAR the least advantaged team of the group and that's what matters most in terms of the quantity of ships they will end up fielding. they will need to make up for that with pillaging but doing so without bringing the whole world down on their head will be a real dilemma... and if they do field the weakest frigavel fleet on turn 100 they will be chevalier's target and that is NOT how you win this game...

translation: bring it onnnn! there's certainly a path to victory for them that runs through waiting out the diplo situation but i like our odds if they try it. portuguese gold can make up for a LOT of norwegian pillages whereas w the longship carpet i really think there's a good chance they just kill someone outright on turn 50 with war carts + 10 longships + embarked Norwegian warriors at the capital before the other teams get their collective acts together, and that actually would be GG. so while i think i personally would do as you propose they do, i do kinda still expect thrawn with his level of rushing skill and enthusiasm to go with carpet strats....

[ljubljana]

a little nervous the ACTUAL pregame favorite here is "whoever rolls the furthest starting position from thrawn". one thing about the PBEM20 map that i was a big fan of: the quadrilateral layout of the starts meant everyone was effectively neighbors with everyone else, hopefully that will hold true here as well...

[ljubljana]

Hey TAD, do you have any ideas for more off-the-wall paranoid stuff we can do in the early game to be spikier re the vikings? My current list, in increasing order of opportunity cost, is roughly:

- never ever move an unguarded builder or settler onto coast after t20 or so
- make absolutely sure none of your TRs go through ocean tiles + try to compress them into as narrow an area as possible, ideally either the gap between our civs or between you and a CS
- Foreign Trade first + galley spam + go for the city-states ASAP
- no coastal districts or improvements for Japan early save those i can cover with slingers
- Military Tradition research before PP for support bonuses
- one or both of us delaying Pingala for Victor 3
- dropping Tithe for Crusade on Japan's religion and giving TAD the closest CS to thrawn, then buying a missionary instead of a settler ASAP to spread Crusade there
- dropping Free Inquiry + Monumentality in the Classical Era for Twilight Valor

some of the later items on this list are really really costly economically, BUT at the same time it also feels even the whole list may not be enough to fend them off if we get a close start and they're really dedicated Let me know if you have any wild ideas

[TheArchduke]

Hey TAD, do you have any ideas for more off-the-wall paranoid stuff we can do in the early game to be spikier re the vikings? My current list, in increasing order of opportunity cost, is roughly:

- make absolutely sure none of your TRs go through ocean tiles + try to compress them into as narrow an area as possible
- Foreign Trade first + galley spam + go for the city-states ASAP
- no coastal districts or improvements for Japan early save those i can cover with slingers
- Military Tradition research before PP for support bonuses
- one or both of us delaying Pingala for Victor 3
- dropping Tithe for Crusade on Japan's religion and giving TAD the closest CS to thrawn, then buying a missionary instead of a settler ASAP to spread Crusade there
- dropping Free Inquiry + Monumentality in the Classical Era for Twilight Valor

some of the later items on this list are really really costly economically, BUT at the same time it also feels even the whole list may not be enough to fend them off if we get a close start and they're really dedicated Let me know if you have any wild ideas

So, in order:

- No, will not be possible I fear.
- Yes
- No, slingers are dirt cheap, we can cover them.
- No, Oligarchy helps as much especially on coastal sea, then mil tradition.
- I lean towards both right now
- Crusade is a no brainer imo, imagine having an apostle with your fleet and landing.
- Golden Age or Dark Age is not an easy thing to plan. In general with huts gone, we will be hardpressed to go golden age.

[ljubljana]

for the TRs, I guess we'll just have to see what we can do given the map tbh. maybe there will be a way to do it. if your first 3 cities and my first three cities are on opposite coasts, in theory you could cram 9 trade routes into the gap between them, which we could then fill with galleys. it's pretty unlikely to actually play out that way though and there is also the option to send early TRs to Norway if they don't immediately DoW us (yeah, right)

for slingers, they are dirt-cheap yeah... but it's also true that an agoge slinger is worth 2/3 the cost of a maritime industries galley. we will see what the land looks like. i think if it's easy to avoid building on the coast it makes sense to do so to maximize galley numbers, but if that's where the +5 campus site is what can you do

good point abt oligarchy. ok, oligarchy first then MT sounds good unless we end up in a hot war BEFORE pp

i lean towards both re victor as well at least i think we should plan for that until we KNOW thrawn is not going to carpet everyone.

yeah, crusade is probably the right call before tithe - it'll hurt us to the tune of 20-30 gpt but that's just one portugal TR. what i'm less sure about is if we buy a missionary asap - it costs about the same as a settler on t61 (!) and i really don't like that. but we'll have to see based on the gamestate i guess. at least crusade will make us VERY unappealing as a target for outright conquest and ground invasion, which i'm willing to bet will buy us more economically than tithe is worth. plus we can always backfill tithe when monumentality runs out.

edit: cross-cultural dialogue is worth a look too instead of tithe if we delay enhancing until post-monumentality. ~60 total pop = ~15 total beakers times monasticism? seems not bad and comparable to say 36 gpt from tithe in 12 cities

disagree about golden age, in a water map team game i think it is very doable almost regardless of the map situation. contacting all the other teams is worth something like 10-12 ES and you already want to do that ASAP for your TRs. add that to 3-5 points from circumnavigation with our scouting galleys (note: gotta hope no one kills our scouting galleys) and 2 points just from BUILDING a galley and we're almost there already. and i'm pretty confident you'll have a +4 harbor spot and me a +3 holy site to get over the line. the rewards are also huge for both of us economically (FI will shave a bunch of turns off Cartography for you and Monumentality is worth like 4 cities for me) so i think we should prioritize going for it. also worth noting that golden age loyalty is a deterrent to conquest too, no one wants to have to raze captured cities to avoid flips. it's not as much of a deterrent as twilight valor i'm sure but it's something

dark age would be much harder though and will require deliberately delaying contact w the others, which is partially outside of our hands since they will want to contact US for their own GAs. thankfully this SHOULD mean thrawn will also have a really hard time getting Twilight Valor in classical - they are already taking 7 points guaranteed from longship + contacting krill, so even 2 other team contacts will push them over. imo sabotaging thrawn's dark age math is a decent reason to go for a GA ourselves, since all we have to do is contact them and their math gets way more difficult probably worth exploring other ways we could sabotage their ES as that will impact their ability to push on not only us but every other team as well.