Keep Lincoln
Sadly the Dutch don't really do it for me. The game has a good chance to be over before any of their shiny things are available, and in a big game like this where victory is less likely the reward of good play and more the providence of good luck I'd rather play something with earlier UUs and UBs.
So with leaders, Bismarck seemed like the better of the two leaders initially, except a few points come against when I considered him closer. First of all, IND is not a great leader bonus when 3-5 other players are also likely to be IND. Second, Expansive losing its worker boost kind of kicks that trait down a peg - although it does still keep the best part of the trait: half-priced granaries. This is still a solid pairing: half priced granaries and forges. In fact, if you're going for the win then it probably is the correct play here to pick Bismarck and hope for a better civ on reroll. Even as I'm typing this I'm getting tempted all over again. But I also feel like these are traits that I've played among the most here, and I do like variety.
With Lincoln, I've been intrigued by CHM's half-priced monuments addition. Also, I like that we have no visible happiness resources. (Don't pull a Noble on my, Lewwyn!) CHM could indeed be very strong if resources are scattered a bit more. My guess is with a huge map he is not the madman to draw the whole thing by hand and will go for a more natural (meaning less lush) luxury distribution than traditionally what we find in RB games. But I think CHM is a very solid trait for economy, for warring, and now it has a cheap way of popping borders. I've never gotten to play CtH CHM and I am jumping at the opportunity. Philosophical is a rougher spot. I think everybody agrees that it needs more of a boost but nobody can decide what that boost should be. I'm going to see what I can do with it. I don't think I'm going to try for a hair-brained scheme like PB7 where I bulbed Machinery and Engineering with my first two Great Scientists - I'm going to want Fishing for this start - but I would like to try bulbing ahead to key techs like Education, Chemistry, and possibly others. This is going to require some planning on my part, though my time is not as free as it once was.
Sadly Astronomy has been changed in CtH, otherwise I would have given some thought to Lincoln of the Dutch ...
Wait, Astronomy has not been changed in CtH? There is no Code of Laws or Paper requirement like there is in RtR?
Seriously? I swore I saw Charriu talking about doing exactly that!
Huh... well, now there's a path to India Dutchmen before the game is over. Guys, I kind of want to do this. I've never done it before and exploring new combinations for me is what really scratches my gaming itch.
Especially if they are bad combinations.
Keep Lincoln
Keep the Dutch
Our early game is going to be awful but at least we have cheap monuments!