Scooter immediately stabs in the north. I didn't really talk about it but i knew that I couldn't hold Kie when I made this deal with scooter. My big defense is just saying I'll let Turkey have it all if Russia stabs (and to Turkey saying the opposite). So I told Scooter that if I lose a core the disband is coming in the south and I'm inviting Turkey in. Told Turkey that Russia stabbed and is trying to solo.
I really hope they're just not going to 17-17 split this on a deal from the start of the game. Yes, it means we were doomed since the two of them got over the halfway mark combined, but even more: what a flipping boring game.
Russia either seems to be upset that I am doing exactly what I told him I would do if he stabbed me, or he's just trying to make me feel some sort of guilt and get me to waver so he can get the solo. I'll be interested to hear from him how much of this was earnest after the fact, because I thought it was pretty obvious and clear what would happen if he attacked me. And that I laid out several reasons why it would happen. In any case, highlights from our chat today (with one important fact bolded by me after):
Quote:scooter - Russia — 8:13 AM
so, out of curiosity, and because there's not much else to discuss
I asked this and unless I missed it, didn't get an answer:
why do you prefer turkey wins over me?
pindicator - France — 9:35 AM
oh, it's more that i gave you a red line and you crossed it
if i don't follow through then what's the point of having a red lien?
i mean, unless you're offering a different solution.....
but it might be too late - i might not even be able to stop turkey at this point
you know, because I had to disband units
scooter - Russia — 9:40 AM
unlike Turkey who definitely did not cross your red line twice
pindicator - France — 9:40 AM
well, he went back the first time which put us back to neutral and the second time was by invitation
scooter - Russia — 9:41 AM
I think I fundamentally don't understand why your best offer to me was 3-way draw, while your offer to turkey was free solo
pindicator - France — 9:41 AM
and if you want to argue the first time, i'd say it was no cores lost and only 1 unit so i could overlook it
scooter - Russia — 9:41 AM
I think it's likely because I've been responding to you, and turkey probably hasn't very much
pindicator - France — 9:42 AM
oh no, i was talking 3 way with turkey the same time i was talking it with you
scooter - Russia — 9:42 AM
yes. But we both turned it down
I just did it to your face
pindicator - France — 9:43 AM
i guess he just had better diplo then?
scooter - Russia — 9:43 AM
mental note: be harder to reach ?
pindicator - France — 9:44 AM
i guess if that's the lesson you want to take from it. I'd say you could have let turkey cross the line first
scooter - Russia — 9:44 AM
HE DID
?
but the line changed after
pindicator - France — 9:44 AM
whatever you want to tell yourself
but we just covered that
realistically: if you had tust moved 1 unit across without taking a core, you would have gotten the same warning but i tried to tell you, if you take corse i have to disband - and it's not so much a point of wanting to do anything then, its that i HAVE TO
The only reason this was not game ending for you was you got 3 centers that year thanks in large part to my help
Realms Beyond 2025 (Fall 1907)
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pindicator - France — 9:46 AM
then i guess you're ok with this being game ending for me
scooter - Russia — 9:46 AM
oops, sent wrong thing
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I think I'm just puzzled over why you picked me to aim at
neither one of us were ever going to accept a 3-way
pindicator - France — 9:47 AM
Your feelings seem to have changed very quickly. What happened to taking your chances?
scooter - Russia — 9:47 AM
nah i've been curious this whole time
my chances look unchanged
I'm going to end with somewhere between 16-18 centers most likely
which is still better than a 3-way
pindicator - France — 9:48 AM
oh, i tried to explain that too: i had an easy-to-defend stalemate line in the south, but i didn't have enough units to defend it and you. So we needed to demilitarize in order for me to defend against Turkey
scooter - Russia — 9:48 AM
you're probably disbanding 3 this winter, and there are no more "southern disbands" left to do
so we'll see what happens after I guess
pindicator - France — 9:49 AM
if turkey wants to mess it up, sure.
scooter - Russia — 9:49 AM
what?
pindicator - France — 9:49 AM
not that i'm going to tell him how to solo
well, if he takes cores now then i disband off your front and you probably do get the solo
scooter - Russia — 9:50 AM
well he has to take centers
pindicator - France — 9:50 AM
yeah, maybe i should tell him how to solo then
i could send units south but i'm trying to figure out what you can do to gain my trust back at this point
scooter - Russia — 9:53 AM
well, what does that look like?
we are both fairly openly trying to take your centers. You are expecting me to not do that while not holding turkey to the same standard
pindicator - France — 9:54 AM
well i hope you think of something before he gets to 18
scooter - Russia — 9:55 AM
and I just want to make crystal clear that you view this as solely my responsibility, as if turkey is an AI or something
you are free to kingmake. I just want the acknowledgment on the record
there seems to be some pretending here that that's not what's happening
pindicator - France — 9:57 AM
what you do expect me to do? Oh gee Russia, you just took my cores and I've been able to work with Turkey but you should just keep taking them in the north - that will be swell. Is that really what you expect me to do?
scooter - Russia — 9:58 AM
in what way exactly have you worked with Turkey
he ordered MAO-Naf on a turn where you had the numbers to force him to do so
pindicator - France — 9:59 AM
guess you can read our diplo after and guage for yourself. But you set the bar for cooperation pretty low, comparatively
scooter - Russia — 10:00 AM
I helped you kill england and occupied germany so you could stab him, so don't pretend like I didn't help a lot. Both of you demanded I help you against the other a few turns ago, so I had to pick
pindicator - France — 10:00 AM
yeah, and immediately stabbed me after. I remember all that
scooter - Russia — 10:00 AM
yes, after turkey did the same
pindicator - France — 10:01 AM
if you are equating the two then you are painting with a VERY broad brush
scooter - Russia — 10:01 AM
look at this screenshot again and tell me what happens if you don't get 3 builds
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pindicator - France — 10:02 AM
Turkey gets free reign to the south, which is why i agreed to stab my ally what i don't get is why you would then IMMEDIATELY jeopordize those builds by taking cores
scooter - Russia — 10:02 AM
my point is we were openly 2v1ing you and both threatening your cores here
and you decided which one you would like to win, but are pretending like you had no choice
pindicator - France — 10:03 AM
ok, i agree. Juggernaut has been an inevitable (and boring) threat all game. So my play was to say whoever crosses my red line first loses. Are you just upset that Turkey did it better than you?
scooter - Russia — 10:03 AM
I'd like the pretense of poor old france had no choice but to give away home cores to drop
scooter - Russia — 10:04 AM
if you can find yourself saying this "red line" bit to me anywhere in here, I'll retract all complaints
pindicator - France — 10:05 AM
you know, i'm tired of you trying to trivialize your stab. Come back when you have something substantial to offer, otherwise i think i'll go back to planning how to get turkey to 18
scooter - Russia — 10:06 AM
I've not trivialized my stab. It was my only play to do better than a 3-way draw, and I would do it again. You have trivialized turkey's stab, and I don't quite know why you are carrying that water. I still don't know why! But good luck either way
pindicator - France — 10:07 AM
good luck to you too. I'll end with saying it doesn't really matter what my reasoning was, that's the current situation and if you want to get past it you better come up with something
scooter - Russia — 10:09 AM
Serious question: what could I possibly offer you
pindicator - France — 10:09 AM
part of a draw
scooter - Russia — 10:09 AM
Ok. How?
pindicator - France — 10:09 AM
good question, we're beyond what i had in mind
So assuming Russia is being genuine here and not just trying to sew doubt into my actions, this is what really baffles me: What does he expect me to do in this situation? Let's assume that it's been Juggernaut from Day 1 (very much hate both Russia and Turkey for this, btw - you both just made this game awful for the rest of us just treating the rest of us like a bunch of NPCs in a video game) and Turkey was always going to attack me and never deal with me. Why does that not give you pause in the north?
What did you expect France to do in that position? Defend each side equally so both R & T could overwhelm you on each front? That sounds like a great way to lose slowly and inevitably.
How he can try to equate 1 fleet coming into MAO and then leaving immediately with him taking multiple cores and taking NTH & NWG which we had just both agreed to demilitarize is a keen level of mental gymnastics that I have yet to achieve. The only way I can understand it is he's pissed that I'm stopping him from winning easily. Okay, there's two: he's trying to undermine my resolve. But really, I want to know how he would propose I should have defended. Also, this was an awful stab by Russia. Sure, you got 2 cores quickly but you're going to lose the game now (unless you can win in the east - which honestly I haven't cared enough to look into).
Finally I think I have a faint chance at a part of a draw still, but the more Turkey moves in the worse my odds get. There could still be a balance where Russia makes it impossible for me to transition cores to Turkey without him grabbing the cores first, and things stalemate in the east. I'd also have to hope for Turkey to see this, which I don't have a lot of faith in right now.
I'll go back to Russia tomorrow and tell him if he pulls out of NTH & NWG and lets me disband the fleet in Cly then we could talk about a draw still. But he needs to agree now because if Turkey gets more than 1 unit across the line then we're past the point of no return. I'm not convinced he'll deal: he seems to have fundamental differences on what consists a win in this game. I think heard it was something like 30% of Diplo games end in a solo? It's definitely less than half, so I think his insistence on thinking losing with 16 centers is better than a draw is just fundamentally wrong.
I'm still enjoying reading along, thanks for the writeup.
(June 11th, 2025, 16:39)pindicator Wrote: so I think his insistence on thinking losing with 16 centers is better than a draw is just fundamentally wrong.
Yeah, there's some debate among the various Diplomacy sites as to what players' goals should be. The rule book says the outcomes are a solo win or N-way draw; anything else is a loss, there's nothing better about a 16 center loss, that or being the first one eliminated are the same thing. But players can and do choose to go for a strong second or surviving to the end, and the system can't stop them from trying and feeling good if they accomplish it.
Well, supposedly we have an agreement for a 3 player draw. I think Russia is serious because he's offering to support me into Mun and letting me take Edi from him - because he's that worried about Turkey taking my cores and me collapsing. Now, is Turkey really on board with this or will he be too disappointed at being asked to no longer have a win gifted to him? I've asked both of them to set their win condition to 3-way draw and asked turkey to hold position for a season.
I apologized to Germany and told him the deal. I tried to ask for a 4-way at first, but I also didn't push hard for it because I didn't really think Russia would go for that.
I guess we'll see in an hour if everyone is on board or not.
Nope, Russia was just lying to get me to ... give up support on Mun? Which shouldn't have worked because Turkey really should not have supported him into Mun even if they are still on their stupid pact to race to 18 and treat the rest of the board like we're NPCs in a single player game. If it isn't obvious, I'm rather pissed. This whole game has turned out to be just a waste of time, and the only reason I haven't hit concede and let them fight out the last of it for themselves is because of a desire to follow through with my commitment to Russia. I told him he would lose if he went against me, and he's done so several times now, so that will not stand as long as I have the power to do so.
Side Note: I've been trying to use country names instead of player names to keep it less personal, but you can see i'm slipping more and more as I become more and more upset how this game has unfolded. Guess I should have just gone in with England from the start since it would have been the same kind of deal as Russia+Turkey have done in the east.
Anyway, I told Turkey if that he and Russia had a deal to split me and finish 17-17 then they should just tell me now and save us all the time. But he told me it's just a race to 18, and only to go for 17 if there's no way to get to 18. And I know exactly what that means to Russia: It means he would rather deal with Turkey to eliminate me and get a 2-way draw at 17 apiece than let me in at 18. Which has me upset all over again.
Looking at the board: Spa, Por, Par, Bre, Lvp, and Mar are all EASY transfers to Turkey. That puts him at 17. So either he needs to get one off of Russia or we need to set up one of the trickier cores to transfer out. I'm just sorry I gave up the game to Russia. No, I'm not - I've dealt in good faith with him all game and he's just lied. So I feel all the more justified in doing this.
For a moment I thought the army at Ruh might have been at risk of being eliminated - but no, Russia took Hol with his FLEET and not his Army. Really Russia has played too cautious for wanting to solo, he really should have moved Kie up because now he has no way of forcing me out of Ruh. Also, I think if Turkey turns his first cores off me into fleets then he can win the Black sea and possibly take his 18th in the east. Will start looking more at that, but for now I've largely ignored it. Finally, I have some plays against Russia this next season, and I don't think I see where he can do much against me. Possibly destroy the fleet at Yor if I'm not careful, but that's about it. I really like this position for my goal, and I can't believe Russia doesn't see just how untenable his position really is.
I think I win Edi by force this year (which makes Russia's decisions even more puzzling to me). I'm a little upset that I can't figure out how to clear orders to give you all a clean sandbox of how things look at the beginning of Spring, so we'll just skip ahead to my first move ideas:
Scooter's fleets can't defend everywhere and are overloaded. He's got the following worries that he needs to sort out:
Hol can be hit by 2 of my armies
Edi can be hit by 2 of my fleets
NWG & NTH can both have their support cut, leaving Edi on an island
Armies Ber, Sil, & War aren't doing anything but it's also a bottleneck to move forces up to be effective
At the same time, he doesn't have a lot of avenues for pushing attacks of his own:
Yor could potentially be taken as a step to go after Lon, but it relies on me being careless
Bel is the best bet for hitting me, but again it is simple for me to defend
So with all these considerations, my first idea for the spring was to do the above, hoping to catch him unawares and grabbing control of either NTH or NWG and then using that to guarantee Edi in the fall.
My thought was that Russia would want to stay active by attacking Yor or Bel, and then these moves would capitalize on that. However, he could also just hold everything and defend: if Edi supports NWG and Nwy and Den then support NTH he will be able to keep me from taking anything in the spring. This is still acceptable to me because a stalemate is the minimum goal of a win for me: stopping Russia's advance while Turkey gobbles up easy cores and then replaces my units on the front.
But really I want more. So perhaps I just cut support and take Edi now:
I'm tapping NWG with NAO, using Cly to support Yor into Edi, and then supporting ENG into NTH from Lon (though you could go either way here), while on land I'm being aggressive again with Ruh supporting Bel to Hol. Here I think maybe Russia tries for Bel by cutting support from Ruh and using Hol to support NTH into Bel. It's been Russia's MO to support sea units in and then consolidate later. It also lets him move up a fleet, so I put Nwy supporting Den into NTH.
And with these moves it will actually succeed: he takes Bel but it isn't an issue because I still have 4 units bordering Bel and he only has 2 available for defense. Meanwhile you can see my attack on Edi easily succeeds and he's forced to disband the fleet. Now, he could try something else with NTH and maybe attack Yor or support Edi, but I havent' found a move combination that actually saves the core.
So this all makes me wonder: why did Russia go through all that deception last season? Just to put himself into a position where he will lose the game?
Meanwhile, Turkey is moving into Mar, IRI, and Wal. We'll try to get the first cores transfered over to him this fall. But really this is Turkey's game to lose. I don't think I could get a draw now if I wanted to convince Turkey to give up the win, he's just in too good of a position.
I found where I thought Russia could stop it all, but then I can't remember the moves today. Or at least he would have to be very passive to defend it. Or I just forgot and the resolution around multiple units interacting gets confusing to me still.
Still, I've altered a few movements and we'll see how it shakes out. Will be a learning moment at least.
