Does anyone have the jungle-growth rules on-hand? I remember adding a bunch of city ruins near the PB32 starts to prevent anyone from getting screwed. Tears will be fucking flowing if jungle grows over one of my starting two corns here. (or any other nearby resources)
(February 17th, 2018, 21:12)GermanJoey Wrote: Does anyone have the jungle-growth rules on-hand?
I don't remember the growth probabilities, but in terms of where it can spread: Only onto grassland tiles (your starting plains corn tiles are safe) and only if they're unimproved (your city ruins idea is genius) and never onto most resources (your starting corns are safe again). If I remember correctly, the only resources onto which jungle can spread are Pigs, Rice, Elephants, Gems, and probably some Calendar and/or late-game resources that I don't remember off the top of my head.
[EDIT: I just checked in the XML, and the above list is correct. The vulnerable calendar resources are Banana, Dye, Sugar, and Spices; the vulnerable late-game resources are Oil and Uranium.]
So, looking at your screenshot, I'm pretty sure the only visible tiles that are vulnerable are the far southern 'phants and the bare grass hill just to their east.
On your previous question, if you wanted to write up a Commodore-style opponent analysis, discussing the players and/or their picks, I'd certainly love to read it!
Thanks for the Jungle-growth info, Ref. Player previews still in-progress.
In other news:
Two players have grown to size 2 by T9. Based on score-increases, these two players are Aretas of Holy Rome and Dark Savant of Byzantium. NEITHER OF THESE TWO PLAYERS START WITH FISHING, AND THEREFORE COULD NOT HAVE DONE A WORKBOAT START.
Ok, here's y'alls stupid tier list and player overview. Or, rather, instead of grouping players into tiers, I grouped them by classifying their combos in one of 5 categories so that I wouldn't have to write the same damn thing over and over again. And.... then ranked players into tiers.
First, notes on categories/scores:
I grouped each combo into one of five categories based on how I think the combo will probably need to be played in a game like this:
Early Empire Establishment: These combos have most of their boosts coming early, and thus need to have a fairly strong position by the end of the Medieval era if they're going to win. That could mean fast early expansion transitioned into a tech lead, or medium expansion transitioned into early Knights, or some sort of late-Classical era conquest, or whatever. On top of that, players of these combos will also need to worry about establishing a strong internal economy early (e.g. lots of infrastructure and/or some key wonders) as they have comparatively less late-game economic strength from traits/UU/UB compared to the next 2 categories. The point is: if these guys aren't near the top early then they'll never be a contender later.
Slower-Start, Late-game Powerhouse: These combos have most of what they need to succeed later on in their traits/UU/UB, but will start slower than anyone else. They'll still need to expand like mad because of that, which means they might be forced to forgo infrastructure and wonders somewhat early on just to keep up. This can be pretty dangerous/tricky to deal with, because the later the game goes on the more urgent every single build will seem to be, and thus it's harder to slot that kinda stuff in later.
Balanced Empire Expansion: Somewhere in the middle, these combos have more flexibility than either of the above. That doesn't mean they can slack off anywhere, but just that they have more flexibility in planning their long-term strategies. These combos will need to stay big while also grabbing lots of first-to bonuses to gain an edge to win.
Alternative: Combos that don't really fit neatly into any of the above categories... generally somewhat awkward. But, not crappy enough to be classified as "bad."
Bad:
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Player Tier: Scored on a scale of 1 to 5.
(average player tier turned out to be 3.52, although TBS and Mack skew that upwards somewhat. Thus each player difference from the average by 3.52-(5+1)/2=0.52)
Combo Modifier: Scored on a scale of -1 to 1, in increments of +0.5.
(incidentally, the average ranking turned out to be 0.56, which means this pick method worked pretty well, versus completely random)
----------------------------------------------
Overall Chances of Winning is calculated with each player being assigned a "Victory Score" via the equation:
Player's Victory Score = ((Player's Tier - Difference from Average Tier) + (Combo Modifier - Difference from Average Combo Modifier))^2
and then we can calculate their "Overall Chance of Winning", rounded to the nearest half-percentage point:
Player's Overall Chance of Winning = 100*VS/sum(everyone's VS)
The average chance of winning is, of course, 100/25 players = 4%.
And now.......
REALMS BEYOND PITBOSS 38 TIER LIST by German Joey, age 4.
GermanJoey - Charlemagne (Imp/Pro) of Mongolia
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 5
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 8%
Brief Thoughts: *bows*
dtay - Genghis Khan (Agg/Imp) of Celtia
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 5
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 8%
Brief Thoughts: Very strong combo early and late, very strong player early and late. Weaker midgame, for some reason. A special note is that IMHO Agg Celtia is extremely dangerous - maybe we'll finally get to see that in action.
Commodore - Kublai Khan (Cha/Cre) of Rome
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 5
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 6.5%
Brief Thoughts: I suspect Commodore is EXTREMELY pleased with this combo. First, it has his precious +2 culture Cre. On top of that, he'll get 2-promo Praets at Construction, which is right about when Commodore will just be itching to attack someone. Finally, if there was ever a civ that made it easy to spams reams upon reams of roleplaying text in his thread, it's gotta be Rome.
Rusten - Cyrus (Cha/Imp) of Arabia
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 4
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 5%
Brief Thoughts: Rusten is an old-school CFC legend; I only put him at a "4" here instead of a 5 because I don't think he has very much MP experience, especially not in a huge game like this. Really love his combo though, and it looks like he's already making waves by landing Hinduism.
Boldly Going Nowhere - Boudica (Agg/Cha) of Khmer
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 4
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 4%
Brief Thoughts: I'm probably rating this combo higher than most. This combo has one main thing going for it: Cheap barracks, Cheap stables and cheap Colosseums mean 3-promo ballista elephants with vassalage or a planted GG and 2-promo cats. And, IMHO, that could be a very viable initial expansion path in a big game like this, rather than the usual Knight rush.
AdrienIer - Mao (Exp/Pro) of Mali
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 3
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 2%
Brief Thoughts: Mao of Mali... not bad. Pro skirms essentially make him invulnerable for a long time, and Pro and Exp work nicely together, with Markets allowing high happycap to pair with fast granaries to use it up. Exp and the Mint are fairly anti-synergistic though.
WilliamLP - Tokugawa (Agg/Pro) of Japan
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 3
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 2%
Brief Thoughts: Solid player, but hasn't played in a long time. IIRC, his last game was one of the end-game survivors in PB18. I really like Tokugawa in RtR, and the Samurai is a more interesting unit with the recent small Maceman buff.
Dark Savant - Joao (Exp/Imp) of Byzantium
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 3
Combo Modifier: 0
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 1%
Brief Thoughts: WELLLL, this sure is an odd one. It looks like DS went warrior-first in order to land Buddhism, which, on first glance, looks like suicide. But, I guess maybe Joao could recover somewhat? I dunno, still seems like a terrible idea to throw away your huge early game headstart for just the chance at a shrine that will be completely worthless for at least 100 turns. Most likely scenerio is that someone else conquers his holy city.
elkad - Shaka (Agg/Exp) of Korea
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 2
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 0.5%
Brief Thoughts: Ah, my old pal Shaka... not much to make use of with Korea though.
Dreylin - Roosevelt (Ind/Org) of the Vikings
Combo Category: Slower-Start, Late-Game Powerhouse
Player Tier: 4
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 5%
Brief Thoughts: Good player, and coming off of two very strong games in PB28 (with that amazing finish) and PB33 (where him and OT4E almost ran away with the game early). Really strong leader with a really strong civ. Terrible starting techs here though, especially for a huge-size map, and the traits won't really help make up for that.
2metraninja - Napoleon (Cha/Org) of the Aztecs
Combo Category: Slower-Start, Late-game Powerhouse
Player Tier: 3
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 3%
Brief Thoughts: Decent player but also somewhat bad at reading others. Org/Cha Aztecs seems really good to me though... get yourself into a whipping frenzy and never have to leave it. As with Dreylin's combo, slow starting techs without help from the traits.
B4ndit - Zara Yaqob (Cre/Org) of Sumeria
Combo Category: Slower-Start, Late-game Powerhouse
Player Tier: 2
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 1%
Brief Thoughts: I can't remember if Sumeria is Agr/Myst or Agr/Wheel in this version of RtR, and no I don't feel like looking it up. If they're Agr/Wheel, then the combo should be +1 instead of +0.5. Still lead by an inexperienced player though.
mackoti - Suleiman (Imp/Phi) of France
Combo Category: Balanced Empire Expansion
Player Tier: 6
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 11.5%
Brief Thoughts: Arrgh, I wanted France soooooooooooooo bad to go with Charlemagne and well well well, look who get it. Great techs, great UB for a game that will go very late (plus is great with Phi), great UU. Phi is good for large empires for lots of GAs, plus is the best trait for an MP CV, IMHO.
The Black Sword - Pericles (Cre/Phi) of Zulu
Combo Category: Balanced Empire Expansion
Player Tier: 6
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 11.5%
Brief Thoughts: God, how does TBS roll Zulu on his first pick? UGHH. Him looking Pericles is a bit surprising, but I suppose it's Phi that he really wants. He certainly is the master of that trait. I'm very interested to see what he does with Cre... that trait requires very strong and far-seeing city planning skills, and TBS is one of the best at that. Well, let's be honest, he's one of the best of everything, SO HOW DOES HE GET ZULU FOR HIS FIRST PICK AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !?!?!??!????????????????????????????????
plako - Justinian (Imp/Spi) of Inca
Combo Category: Early Empire Establishment
Player Tier: 5
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 8%
Brief Thoughts: One of the greats in the past, he hasn't been a contender in a game for a long time... PB13, IIRC? Weak showings in PB18, PB27, and PB35. Had some real bad luck in those first two though, and had a great game in PB22 despite an awful starting position. At any rate, this combo is awesome, just dunno if plako will bother putting in the effort to make it work.
Gavagai - Mehmed (Exp/Org) of Egypt
Combo Category: Balanced Empire Expansion
Player Tier: 5
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 8%
Brief Thoughts: Pretty much a perfect combo for this kinda game, wow. Well suited good for Gav's economic playstyle too. Maybe the fast-start and economy-focus help steer him away from some of the same mistakes he made in PB37?
Shallow Old Human Tourist - Augustus (Imp/Ind) of Persia
Combo Category: Balanced Empire Expansion
Player Tier: 5
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 6.5%
Brief Thoughts: The dream team is back in their first game since PB18. That was a long ass time ago, so they get scored a 5 like plako instead of a 6 like TBS and Mackoti. Decent combo, although it can't be what they were really hoping for. Persia is nice... the best starting techs, plus the UU is surprisingly useful and versatile in MP. Augustus can be pretty solid if they land Henge. The big question for these guys is what they'll do in the late-game.
OT4E and Chumchu - Qin Shi Huang (Ind/Pro) of Carthage
Combo Category: Balanced Empire Expansion
Player Tier: 4
Combo Modifier: 0
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 3%
Brief Thoughts: I kinda like Ind/Pro, but I don't like Carthage here. I'm sure OT4E is drooling about the Numidian Cavalry, but the starting techs are so bad. OT4E is a strong and extremely creative player but also has a tendency towards self-sabotage.
Mr. Cairo - Saladin (Pro/Spi) of Russia
Combo Category: Balanced Empire Expansion
Player Tier: 3
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 3%
Brief Thoughts: Maybe the best combo of anyone, along with Gav and Mackoti. Russia is one of the best civs for these long games, and Saladin is just all-around awesome. Very high-skill cap combo though. Mr. Cairo has done decently in his past few pitbosses... but dunno if he's up for taking on the challenge of such a tricky combo.
naufrager - Julius Caesar (Imp/Org) of Germany
Combo Category: Balanced Empire Expansion
Player Tier: 1
Combo Modifier: +1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 0%
Brief Thoughts: JC of Germany... one of (if not *the*) strongest RtR leaders, with decent starting techs. I think this is this guy's first game though.
Pindicator - Hammurabi (Agg/Org) of China
Combo Category: Alternative
Player Tier: 4
Combo Modifier: 0
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 3%
Brief Thoughts: Odd combo for Pind here... very slow combo. I guess he can mitigate that somewhat if he beelines BW (which, I think he did, although I haven't been paying much attention to others' scores other than when I was on the lookout for who founded the religions). He will probably want an early Academy here, but I don't know if he'll really be able to spare the production for that.
spacetyrantxenu - Hatshepsut (Cre/Spi) of Greece
Combo Category: Alternative
Player Tier: 3
Combo Modifier: 0
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 1%
Brief Thoughts: A lotta anti-synergy with this combo... I really wonder why Xenu didn't throw it back. That said, Spi and Greece are good on their own.
superdeath - Churchill (Cha/Pro) of the Native Americans
Combo Category: Alternative
Player Tier: 1
Combo Modifier: +0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 0%
Brief Thoughts: WELLLL, I can't really complain about the leader. Very funny combo... he can get CG1D4 Longbows with Vassalge. What one then does with CG1D4 Longbows, I don't know.
Aretas - Ragnar (Agg/Fin) of Holy Rome:
Combo Category: Bad
Player Tier: 1
Combo Modifier: -0.5
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 0%
Brief Thoughts: Aretas apparently went warrior-first and choose archery as his first tech, yeesh.
Donovan Zoi - Pacal (Exp/Fin) of Maya
Combo Category: Bad
Player Tier: 1
Combo Modifier: -1
Overall Chances of Winning, projected at T0: 0%
Brief Thoughts: *shakes head, sighs... rubs forehead with heel of palm*
Oh, hey, cool! Thanks for posting the stupid tier list and/or analysis! I hope you had more fun putting it together than the adjective suggests! I see some things I expected and some that took me by surprise, all really well thought out. I take issue with your math though, or at least the way you present it:
(March 2nd, 2018, 05:29)GermanJoey Wrote: Player Tier: Scored on a scale of 1 to 5.
(average player tier turned out to be 3.52, although TBS and Mack skew that upwards somewhat).
Combo Modifier: Scored on a scale of -1 to 1, in increments of +0.5.
(incidentally, the average ranking turned out to be 0.56, which means this pick method worked pretty well, versus completely random)
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Overall Chances of Winning is calculated with each player being assigned a "Victory Score" via the equation:
Player's Victory Score = ((Player's Tier - Average Tier) + (Combo Modifier - Average Combo Modifier))^2
This equation would give Donovan a victory score of ((1 - 3.52) + (-1 - 0.56))^2 = ~17, for example, and Boldly a total of ((4 - 3.52) + (0.5 - 0.56))^2 = ~0. My guess is that you realized the "- Average tier/combo" part just messed things up when you actually went to calculate the scores, and reduced it to the simpler version instead:
Ah, no, I simply wrote it wrong in the post in haste. The actual numbers I calculated from the spreadsheet are correct. I actually meant to write that the difference in a player's tier from the nominal average tier. That's equal to 3.52 - (5+1)/2 = 0.52 in each case. I also included a max(x, 0) function, which I eliminated from the post for simplicity, since it's only needed by two players.
The actual formula I used in Google Sheets was:
Player's Victory Score = Max((Player's Tier - Difference from Average Tier) + (Combo Modifier - Difference from Average Combo Modifier), 0)^2
The idea here is to broadly judge each player compared to a "baseline" player. Later, I can update these chances based on what I consider the current standings, e.g. on like T50, T100, etc. For your two examples, it becomes: Max((1-0.52)+(-1-0.56), 0)^2 = 0 for Donovan, and Max((4-0.52) + (0.5-0.56), 0)^2 = 11.70 for BGN.
At any rate, I'll update the original post, so thanks for catching this error.
Ah - got it! So what you're subtracting each time is like an "overall strength of field" modifier - the difference between the (actual, calculated) average tier or combo level in this game and the (theoretical) average tier or combo level defined by the system. Thanks for the explanation!
Map of land explored so far, to aid in planning before Copper is revealed.
Apologies for the tilty screenshot, but it was the only way to get all the relevant land into one SS. Anyways, first city, as of now, is likely going to go on that dark (unexplored) square between the pig and the gems to the east of my capital, unless there's a surprise food resource there. (shown as southeast in the screenshot because of the tilt) It's... not bad I guess. Shares the capital's corn, grabs one decent food, and I don't mind the gems given the problem with this land. I also want to make sure I get these two tiles jungle-proofed ASAP because I will be boned otherwise.
This land will be pretty productive long term, but presents a lot of fucking problems in the short- and medium- term. First of all, in the short term, there's not a lot of strong food in my capital's first ring of cities... that hill pig and SW sheep are the only 5-food tiles. Further out, there's a dry corn to the N and S, and then finally a 6f tile, a grass pig, deep in the middle of jungle to the far east. (totally expecting that to get jungled over by the time I can get out there). That's pretty poor... I'll probably have to end up farming over a lot of those floodplains, which means more worker investment. All of this fucking jungle (and forest and hills) reduce my settler/worker mobility as well... gotta put down more roads to make up for that.
In the medium term, things are worse. I again come back to the jungle. There's about ~160 land tiles showing in this screenshot, and 50 of them are jungle, 10 are peaks, and 2 are bare desert. ~160 tiles is about what I'd expect an average empire to end up being roundabouts the era when peaceful expansion starts coming to an end. Maybe I'll get a little more since I'm Imp; depends on my neighbors somewhat. At any rate, the point is that unless I make a plan to deal with this shit, I'll be utilizing barely over half of my land. And "dealing with this shit" means investing somewhere around 250-300 extra worker turns in total prior to, say, T150 or whatever. Naively, that's somewhere around 400-500 extra hammers of workers that I'll need to spend just to use my land. Realistically, I'll want to spend far less and instead get into Serfdom ASAP. Maybe, say, by the end of a 1st GA, and then ride it into the start of a 2nd GA. That might be later than I'd otherwise like to throw it, which could impede other plans, etc.
All of this is to say that I will probably need to prioritize commerce somewhat early compared to REXing as hard as I am able. Get extra workers early, put down some *ugh* cottages and grow the capital tall. Whip libraries. Think about the Oracle, perhaps.
On a related note, IMHO Cre woulda been super good for this land.
