scooter Wrote:You also don't even know for sure if their sliders were at 100% during those 2 turns - if they're able to turn them up higher your projections are way off and 30-40 turns might even be doable.
Excellent point - didn't consider that when I was writing the update
Actually, we can do a quick mental exercise to figure out whether or not that is the case:
Milkshake CPT: 331 cpt.
Now, with Hermitage, Free Speech, and 3 Cathedrals, Team #2 has potential to put 350% cultural modifiers in each city. However, Islam has probably not been spread around much at this point in time; so it's unlikely there are any Mosques yet. So, let's assume 300% modifiers:
331/3 = 110.3 base cpt.
We know all Team #2 has built all six wonders in Milkshake:
Chichen Itza - 6cpt
Notre Dame - 10cpt
The Colossus - 6 cpt
The Hagia Sophia - 8cpt
The Sistine Chapel - 10cpt
The University of Sankore - 8cpt
So, the sum of all wonder culture is
48 cpt. Some of these may have their cultural output doubled by now
Other culture buildings:
Library - 2cpt
University - 3cpt
Theatre - 3cpt
Jewish Monastery - 7cpt
Jewish Temple - 6cpt
Jewish Synagogue - 5 cpt
Christian Monastery - 7cpt
Christian Temple - 6cpt
Christian Cathedral - 5cpt
The sum of all building culture is
44 cpt
So, if we add up the building cpt and wonder cpt, we get
102 cpt, 8 short of target total; easily accountable in infrastructure variation, running specialists, or a building over 1,000 years old.
So, if this line of reasoning is correct, it is reasonable to assume that Team #2 is
not running the culture slider yet. At least Team #2's India isn't running the culture slider yet.
How much culture are they capable of if they turn up the slider?
I'll use our capitals to assist me in creating estimates:
May, 1940, pre-printing press, was capable of approximately 70 commerce per turn. Beijing is of similar size, so we can safely assume it will have similar potential. The main difference is that they're financial. So, with that in mind, we can assume approximately +15 commerce per turn, give or take a few, one for each cottage/hamlet in the city's BFC. Accordingly, we can figure Beijing produces 85 commerce per turn. The last thing we need to take into account is the +25% culture from the pavilion, unavailable to India or the Ottomans. So, 85 cpt * 325% =
~275 cpt
Istanbul is probably lagging behind the other two capitals, simply because its location does not have the commerce potential of Milkshake or Beijing. Pre-Printing Press, Kararomum's could achieve approximately 50 commerce per turn. Applying the 300% modifiers to that, we get our estimate: 50cpt * 300% =
~150 cpt
Milkshake is the hardest to get a handle on, since it is obviously settled in a coastal location vs. Stringer Bell. Additionally, it's smaller population translates into a smaller commerce potential. However, we can probably safely assume that it's potential is somewhere between that of Istanbul and Beijing.
~200 cpt
With all this in mind, Team #2 has the potential to win a cultural victory far ahead of my estimate. Turning up the cultural silders dramatically accelerates their potential to win such a victory - and we can probably safely change our estimate to ~40 turns out, vs. my earlier prediction of ~60 turns out.
The important thing to keep in mnd here is that they obviously cannot all run 100% commerce at the same time. I expect they'll set India to funding the Ottomans at some point and have the Chinese run break-even.
So, revised target date:
[SIZE="4"]Turn 205 (40 Turns Out)[/SIZE]
They can probably win by then, if not a bit earlier.
Settled GA's, with modifiers, would be worth 42 cpt. However, saving to bomb allows more flexibility. If I've counted right, they have produced 5 to date, representing 12,500 culture in bombing potential - or halfway to a Legendary City. I feel they will probably save these to bomb a back-up city in the event that one of the capitals fall. If left to their own devices, they will use them on Istanbul at last minute to push the city up with the other two.
They've been drafting non-stop for the last dozen turns. I imagine they've turned their entire empire to supporting the Legendary cities, producing just military - especially catapults and muskets. By just having shit tons of drafted musketmen and jannisaries, they will make attacking them extremely difficult - just look at the impressive stacks defending the Sino-India border.
The interesting bit is that they have presumably not turned off tech yet, which begs the question, what are they researching?
![[Image: LegendaryCityUpdate.png]](http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc432/numismatist93/PB6%20Pictures/LegendaryCityUpdate.png)
![[Image: Team2Again.png]](http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc432/numismatist93/PB6%20Pictures/Team2Again.png)
