SPOILERS-Tatan's PBEM10 Thread

[Adlain]

I dunno, with a 40% defence bonus plus any fortification bonus, would those spears not have been getting good odds against the knights?

I agree, Spear (4) +40% (1.6 round down to 1) +25% (1) +100% (4) = 10 Worst Case Senario you had even odds (100% Applied to Base only)
[INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT][INDENT](6) = 12 Best Case Senario, with the 100% applied after all the others you would have had odds on those Hoses..... Damn
[/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT]for what its worth, i dont blame you for getting flustered and moving out quick sharp, and chances are that you would have lost eventualy, but with alittle RNG luck, you could have done some serious damage to that stack.

As for the rest of yo plan, Looks ok to me, i would be far more tempted to wait for the GA than pop it now, However, How long will Engineering take ATM (after current Tech), if it is sub 10T pop the GA after it, if it is more, pop it as soon as you finish your current tech (if posable) as Pikes and Longbows are our Main Priority if we want to kick out Serdoa and keep Cyneheard at bay.

[spacemanmf]

Well, I presume the Knights would have promotions too, including potentially Shock for some.

Try this:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=148354

It's a useful combat odds calculating spreadsheet.

By my reckoning, the fortification bonus would have been crucial. With the Knights promoted to Combat I + Shock, the odds are 2:1 in the Knight's favour with no fortification bonus, and 2:1 in the Spear's favour with the full fortification bonus.

[novice]

Great engineers are good at lightbulbing Feudalism, Guilds and Engineering.

[Tatan]

Well, damn. I didn't sim the odds for Aren because it was 1:45 in the morning and I didn't think spears would get that great of odds, maybe I could have held the city. Of course, there always would have been risk; if Serdoa redlined my spears/mace with the first knights, then the rest of the forces there were toast, and my remaining forces around might not have been strong enough to execute a catapult-counterattack. And, yet... the evacuation is looking increasingly like a shitty move. I should simmed the damn thing out before I did anything. Sigh. First defensive war in multiplayer going about as bad as one might expect from the rest of my gameplay.

At least I still have SPIRIT!!!


@Novice: I considered that somewhere earlier [preference is Engineering, I think?], but at this point it is probably more efficient to pop a GA than bulb Engineering [although, not having the turn yet I have no idea how long Engineering will take].


Also important: Cyneheard responded to my short message about the Serdoan war that also proposed another NAP. [always worth a try! :D]

T100, and Serdoa's already throwing in the towel?!?!?!?!?! Lame. Russia's not in great shape, but he's not a joke, either. He could cut NAPs with you and Mackoti, and tech in peace, getting to Rifles before any of us could. Or go for a Naval edge and pillage/blockade the hell out of one of you. Breaking an agreement is a no-go in my book. How much longer did your NAP have?

I knew he was well-equipped thanks to Meatbalz's antics, but are knights even enough to be truly threatening? You should be able to get to Guilds or Engineering yourself, if you haven't already. And it's not like Knights alone can sack fortified cities with LB and spears, although they can pillage a bit.

However, he's also #6 in power. You're not. If you've got a secure border, then he's going to die very, very, quickly (as happened last time, and I don't think he's going to cut a quick deal if he's tired of the game). If you have to keep our border fortified, then he's got a fair chance of dragging this out and not being all that much stronger for his unwillingness to continue. It's not really what he wants, but it wrecks the game if you just win the war, which is my top priority to protect.

Cyneheard

1st paragraph: it appears that Cyneheard mis-understood some of what I said. Not much important.

2nd paragraph: hmm, great advice, if I had longbows. Or fortified cities. Or didn't retreat at first sight. [yes, I am going to beat myself up about this]

3rd paragraph: aww, what?! Cyneheard thinks I'm going to whip Serdoa's ass unless I am forced to protect myself from him, too! Son of a... well.

The problem is, I am not quite sure if Cyneheard IS going to attack me, or if he just wants me to think he is. Now I am in a quandary. I can:
-Tell Cyneheard how that I am weaker in comparison to Serdoa than it seems, because of my lack of an effective counter to knights and the fact that Serdoa is literally going to be coming at me with no regards to his own civ's development [fact: a wounded and cornered dog will fight much more fiercely than an uninjured one]. This could either work great [he signs a NAP] or horribly [he decides to attack].
-Say, "Fair enough," and try to push Serdoa back as much as possible before the NAP runs out.
-Say, "Fair enough," and then attack Cyneheard after our NAP runs out.
-Lose on purpose to Serdoa just to be able to say to Cyneheard, "I TOLD you I needed that NAP!"


But I still have no idea what to actually do [although, honestly, that third option would be really fun]. I guess I'll have to go with the time-honored strategy and WING IT.

Also, if there was one time in the game where I could look in other peoples' spoiler threads, it would be now. Note to Cyneheard after the game: You were seriously good at running circles around me in diplomacy. I have no idea what you are actually going do right now.

[Adlain]

Hey Tatan,

1) dont sweat the Tactical Mistake, im sure in the comming months you will be able to read some real doosies in other thread in some other games

2) what are our options, i see them as we ether go full force at Serdoa and Hope (read: Pray) for a NAP with Cyneheard or we tech like buggery to ether LB or Pike and Hole up and hope nether Serdoa or Cyneheard can break us untill we are ready for a counter offencive.

Personaly, i would prefre to try all out to deal with serdoa and hope for a NAP from cyneheard. we can almost swap our civ for Serdoas if we get backstabed and manage to break Serdoa in time and it may give us a chance to keep cyneheard out. dont forget: he FEARS our UU, we get some of them prowling the Waters he may be more forthcoming for a NAP.

Lastly, as i have posted in the PBEM11 thread, i have managed to actualy get a Job (well a work placment atleast that has the prize of a job at the end of it if i do well enough) 2 Years i have been trying and boy do my feet know it - they have not hurt this much in along time. Long story short, my Forum time has been severly shortened so if you need my advice (unlikley ) just drop me a PM and ill answer it ASAP.

Adlain.

[Tatan]

Warning: I was pretty ticked when I wrote this, sorry if it is not up to par with my usual reports with lots of pictures, jesting, and smilies.


Serdoa kept Aren, I have no idea why. Anyway, I attacked.


The relevant units.
Sea by Ehrlitan [need to unload into the city first; will be attacking across a river]
Mace-One Promo
2 Cats-One Promo

Ehrlitan the City Tile [will be attacking across a river]
1 Chariot-Combat 1 + One Other
1 Chariot-No Promos
1 Cat-One Promo

Sea by Aren [will need to assault from the sea]
2 Maces-One Promo
1 Spear-One Promo
1 Spear-Combat 1 + One Other

East of Ehrlitan [will be attacking across a river]
1 Mace-One Promo
1 Xbow-No Promos
1 Sword-City Raider 1 + One Other
1 Cat-One Promo
1 Chariot-Combat 1
1 Chariot-No Promos
1 Spear-Combat 1

-versus-

Between Ehrlitan and Aren [these are the only units I would be attacking]
2 Knights-Combat 1 and Shock
1 Knight-Combat 2
1 Knight-Flanking and Sentry [8.9/10 health]
4 Knights-Combat 1

NW of Aren
1 Knight-Combat 1 and Shock [8.7/10 health]

Aren the City Tile
1 Knight-Flanking 2 [5.8/10 health]


I was unable to figure out how to represent wounded knights, so all of the following results used them at full strength.

Simming results
<First Attempt>
My Losses: 4 cats, 1 mace, and 1 chariot
His Losses: 8 knights
I had some fairly good luck here.

<Second Attempt>
My Losses: 4 cats, 4 maces, and 2 spears
His Losses: 7 knights
It should be noted here that I lost quite a lot of coinflip battles with the maces and spears [actually, I lost 6 out of 8 battles with 30%-70% odds].

<Third Attempt>
My Losses: 4 cats, 1 spear, 2 maces, and 1 xbow
His Losses: 8 knights
Luck was pretty swingy here, I won several early battles and then lost a lot of the clean-up.

<Fourth Attempt>
My Losses: 4 cats, 2 maces, 1 spear, 1 sword, and 1 xbow
His Losses: 8 knights
Kinda mediocre luck here.

<Fifth Attempt>
My Losses: 4 cats, 3 maces
His Losses: 8 knights
Pretty average, with a touch of good luck.

Taking this in,
<Average Attempt>
My Losses: 8.4 [featuring mostly cats and maces]
His Losses: 7.8 [all knights]

So, the attack looks to be in my favor. Serdoa's losses would have probably a little bit higher, too, because of the wounded sentry. The real key seems to be the cats and their collateral damage; even mediocre luck is still effective with a good initial run of damage. Note: despite my earlier math, the spears actually almost always had slightly greater odds than the maces, most likely due to the amphibious attack penalty.

Anyway, results:

-Cat dies
-Cat dies
-Cat dies
-Cat dies
-Spear dies at ~60% odds
-Mace dies at ~40% odds
-Spear dies at ~45% odds
-Spear dies at ~60% odds
-Mace WINS at ~60% odds
-Mace dies at ~40% odds
-Mace dies at ~55% odds
-Sword WINS at ~20% odds
-Xbow dies at ?~25% odds
-Chariot WINS at ~40% odds
-Chariot dies at ?50% odds
-Chariot WINS at ~60% odds
-Chariot WINS at 55% odds

...

And that's all the units I can throw at Serdoa.

<The Actual Battle Of Ehrlitan>
My Losses: 4 cats, 3 maces, 3 spears, 1 xbow, 1 chariot
His Losses: 5 knights


Okay, I'm sorry if this comes across as whiny and/or unnecessarily angry, but that was god-damned f*@#$@ bullshit. Let me see, of the 11 coin-flip battles [30-70%], I lost 7. Coincidentally, all but one of those losses were one of my spears or maces, the only units able to get even half-good odds consistently on a knight. Thank the sweet lord I had those chariots as back-up, or else this piece of shit attack would not have accomplished a single damned thing. As if it did much anyway. Now, Serdoa gets to go prancing back to Aren, and wait for reinforcements, or whatever the hell he's trying to do. Oh, he could also attack my vulnerable troops who are in the open, now, killing the only victors I took away from the battle. Meanwhile, all of my effective army on the island IS COMPLETELY DEAD, and I am left with a meager garrison in Yakkity Yak [at least, until Serdoa kills it, he was sailing six galleys towards it], and a couple red-lined chariots.

Evacuting Aren? That would have been acceptable, a risky but rewarding move, if only I had had some SLIGHTLY better combat luck. Seriously, if a couple [or even just one!] of those earlier battles had been won, the rest of my forces would have fared much better, and we would now be staring at a complete absense of knights, or at least just ONE, not THREE.

Okay, enough ranting. Don't feel much like reporting what else happened, so here's a summary. Chariots retreat to Ehrlitan. GE bulbs 90% of Engineering, I switch over to finish it at end of turn. Caravel heads toward Serdoa to harass him, or something. Every city is shifting to military. I curse a lot.

I am now sixth in power.


Note: Re-reading this after pasting it into a preview, I realize this is a pretty sad report. I'm still fully committed to this game, but honestly I'm more than a little frustrated that Serdoa could simply waddle his stack up to me with utter impertinence and live because of poor combat luck. Of course, I still did kill 5 knights and red-line the others, so that counts for something, though. I have literally zero chance of winning this war now, though, unless Cyneheard fails to see his opportunity and spares me.

[Tatan]

Off-topic news:



Why has Mackoti not crushed someone yet?!




As postulated, Serdoa moves in on YY. With that incoming pike, a cursory examination of the odds indicate that most of the battles will be coin-flips [at least, if I was correctly using that excel program posted by Spacemanmf], and although Serdoa seems to have more forces on the way [spotted a stray catapult moving towards the galleys], this should at least stall him, maybe even long enough to send reinforcements [maybe].


Much to my chagrin, I realize that caravels can not blockade. Well, at least Forward Unto Dawn can guard the trireme I have on the way who CAN blockade. Speaking of caravels, In Amber Clad was cornered by an exploring caravel of Cyneheard's, so if he didn't before, he certainly will know now that I have Optics.


Main Event:



So there is no way he can take the city, and I'll have enough units in play next turn to be able to try once again to kill off his stack. Which would be really nice, because I would prefer to be able to hold YY, as a buffer city, or something [I don't plan to re-take Aren until I know I can keep it]. The sooner I can neutralize Serdoa's current offensive forces, the better, because Cyneheard continues to be evasive. I halfheartedly tried one more time to argue for a NAP, but I don't think he's giving one out, which makes it pretty positive that he has BELLIGERENT INTENTIONS. The key will be whether I can kill the Russian attackers quickly enough to shuffle my units back into anti-Carthaginian posts [and maybe even position some to fight back, if I'm feeling particularly screwy].


In summary: enough doom and gloom! I am going train loads of units and keep trying until I can kill SOMEthing, goddammit!

[spacemanmf]

In summary: enough doom and gloom! I am going train loads of units and keep trying until I can kill SOMEthing, goddammit!

That's the spirit!

[Tatan]

No time to fully report the turn right now, but I thought I would share a little bit of my diplomatic shenanigans...

I'm not even going to bother to send this to Serdoa, not while he's still getting iron from Mackoti. Cutting him from 54 foreign trade routes to 9 is huge; he can have up to 56 foreign routes. So, can we agree to all do so?

Cyneheard

I'm willing to enact an embargo, provided at least two of the rest of you go through with it.

-Tatan

Tatan,

In case the message hasn't been passed on yet, both myself and ad-hoc have closed borders with mackoti this turn.

TT

I'm in, and TT already cut borders.

But little did they know...

Hey, just thought I would let you know that Cyneheard sent the following to me, Ad Hoc, and Twinkletoes:

"I'm not even going to bother to send this to Serdoa, not while he's still getting iron from Mackoti. Cutting him from 54 foreign trade routes to 9 is huge; he can have up to 56 foreign routes. So, can we agree to all do so?

Cyneheard"

He tried doing this before with Meatbalz, but it didn't pan out. I'm playing along right now, but I don't plan on going through with it.

-Tatan

hi,
TY for information ,I figured out that something is happening.Well in exchange for this i can tell you that i strongly believe that Cyneheard is prepering to atack you.He is such a fox i will have my revenge, i will wait answers from TT and adhoc to decide what to research and perhaps i will show Cyneheard is not funny to mess other people bussines.I am just furios righ now, he will pay.
Please excuse my wording .....,
mackoti

And thank you for that tip about Cyneheard. I was already pretty positive he was going to, from his actions and some things Serdoa has said, but I'm glad you confirmed it.

In fact, that is why I sent you that email: if it comes down to a cold-war conflict between you and Cyneheard, I am on your side. And FYI, Twinkletoes, Ad Hoc, and Cyneheard have all agreed in email to cut borders with you, although I think only TT has actually done so yet.


Just between you and me, confidentially, I am getting Astronomy in two turns, hopefully I will have a little surprise prepared when the attack comes...

-Tatan

I hope i still got you , so you can play your save. I think you are living hard times with serdoa atackig you and cyneheard preparing same. To bad that my hands are tyed and i cant help you becasue you are in war with Serdoa wich has a strong agreement with Meatbalz, and i dont like be a jerk and betraying him.

lololololololol

Okay, that was fun, but what did it accomplish?

1) Sow the seeds of hate between Mackoti and TT, AH, and, most importantly, Cyneheard.
2) Mackoti now trusts me, and might actually help me against Cyneheard [but not Serdoa, unfortunately]
3) Mwa-ha-ha, now Cyneheard and co will have to deal with less trade routes while I still enjoy trade with Mackoti! And although when I don't go through with the deal [I plan to "forget" for a couple of turns], they will be mad [especially Cyneheard if he founds out I leaked the email], but I'm already going up against Cyneheard anyway, and now since they've already canceled deals it's too late to undo diplo damage with Mackoti.

Operation: Scumbag a complete success!

[Tatan]

Okay, never posted anything about this, because 1) I'm busy, 2) it was still up in the air, and 3) I'm lazy, but I've been conducting top-secret negotiations with Serdoa.

After some correspondence, he sent this dramatic email:

Tatan,

Please consider the following confidential and only to be shared with your lurkers. If you don't feel like you can do that or if you have commitments to do otherwise please stop reading.

I have pondered over your email for some time now. I did take that time because I feel that this will be a turning point for the game. I do understand that you are open minded regarding our future as well. And our future it is what we have to talk about. It is obvious that you do not believe you still have a chance to win and looking at the facts

- that one of your neighbours is taking your cities and has the stronger military (whereas I am that neighbour)
- that you have another neighbour which intends to attack you soon (whereas my other neighbour is secretly allied with me)

I tend to agree to this assessment. On the other hand I feel like my chances to win are pretty good, given that on top of the above, I have the highest GNP and the highest MfG and 2nd highest Population. I am simply lacking room to expand. Now the normal course would be to take your land but I think we can find a better way. I offer you to win - together with me. Yes, what I mean is (kind of) vassalage. What would that include?

- Everlasting NAP till the end of the game
- Everlasting MDP till the end of the game
- You will spread the faith of Buddishm in all your cities
- Borders will be kept open forever
- Resources will be traded free of charge and the other one is always the preferred trade partner if he does not have this resource by his own
- Resources can't be requested if the other has only one of it, except for strategic resources
- Military assistance for campaigns against Cyneheard and others (that can mean either via using your troops or gifting them - if this makes the campaign easier manageable - as well as building those troops)
- All cities we conquer will be put under Russian control
- This does not apply to 2 cities (one of them being the one on that island between you and Cyneheard) we take from Cyneheard which will be put under your control in exchange for Ehrlitan (simply for cultural reasons because we do crush us in this area and that sucks)

You will be free to go for every possible victory condition as long as you stick to the above agreement. I myself intend to go for either Domination or Space. So you might even be able to pull of a culture win. Though I said I offer you to win with me and I mean it. If you wish I will happily agree ingame to a permanent alliance (as soon as available) and truly win together with you.

Think about it. In my opinion, that is pretty much what you offered already anyway only that instead of going into a worthless total war mode which in the end don't get you anywhere, you'll have a goal. Well and you won't be eradicated in 10 - 15 turns.

Kind regards,
Serdoa

No idea how to respond; I'll have to wait and see. More later, I guess.