Other stuff

[MJW (ya that one)]

Con leader lost seat.

The left bloc appears to be on track to avoid needing BQ. So the question is if the new NDP leader agrees to support or not. If he or she rejects I don't think BQ would be okay with being the sloppy second and CONs get do-over election.

[Zed-F]

I really doubt the NDP would be very interested in avoiding an alliance with the Liberals until Trump leaves office and/or Carney stuffs enough things up that his favorability drops precipitously; the NDP has no reason to force another election until circumstances change such that they stand a good chance of gaining a lot of seats. The average minority government in Canada lasts 18-24 months. I tend to expect that Trump is more likely to extend this duration than to curtail it, certainly as long as he keeps up his rhetoric on Canadian sovereignty and keeps imposing tariffs -- Trump's "the great powers do what they want and the minor ones do what they must" philosophy is not one that plays well in Canada. If Carney's economic policy shows promising signs, that's another thing that could extend his government's lifespan, since the cost of living is the biggest issue *other* than Trump.

One other note -- not all votes have been counted yet and there are still quite a few ridings that could flip to the Liberals. I put the odds of a Liberal majority pretty low, but they are non-zero.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Liberals appear to have fallen two seats. There's a good chance they get two people to cross the floor. So, they have to fail at that AND NDP doesn't support them in order for CONs to get do-over election.

In other news, Dina Boluarte of Peru now has an approval rating of 2%

[MJW (ya that one)]

Peru President has been removed. I think the lowest rating she got was 1%.