[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: The Honorable French

[scooter]

That's a nice tactic to use to feed false information to your opponents, by the way. I was going to fake an attempt at a cultural victory in the diplo thread of PB7 by posting a fake update. But it was going to be too much work in the end, so I didn't go through with it.

This actually crossed my mind - a fake "oops"... Maybe I'll use it at some point.

[scooter]

So the moves heavily suggested an AT, but I got this confirmation from Rowain:

Rowain: Anyway just to inform you:
Austria has told me per mail that he thinks RUM is natural Austrian territory and i shouldn't be upset by his move
me: hahah
is he being serious?
Rowain: I guess so.
me: that's usually pretty russian
Rowain: yeah I told him that still waiting for an answer
Of course if he has turkish support he is right necause than there won't be a Russia for long to contest it.
me: yeah that sounds like AT to me

Well ok, the AT alliance is apparently on Time to poke Tatan.

[scooter]

Also, after chatting with Rowain, my Gmail account is now giving me ads about learning how to speak Russia. This is up there with the time during PBEM3 I was getting ads suggesting I learn how to speak Khmer.

[scooter]

Hopefully I get an interesting response.

Hey Tatan - so the A/T alliance is on huh? I guess that means you can handle being allied to that "shifty" guy to use your words :P.

So what I don't understand is where does Twinkletoes fit into all this? He seems to not want to attack you, but surely his only other option over there is your ally. Interesting play here, but he seems to be the awkward 4th wheel over there. So who dies first, TT or Rowain? That impacts me a good bit, so that's where the curiosity came from .

-scooter

Opted to go pretty direct with him here. That's intentional. We'll see if he responds the way I'm hoping he responds.

[scooter]

And then for TT - a bunch of free info given to him in order to build the trust with him:

TT,

Quick update. Kinda sounds like an AT alliance is formed. Apparently Rowain got a message from Tatan that more or less hinted at it. Figured you should know. Are you aware of this? I wanted to make sure you aren't getting promised the world by one of those two only to get stabbed, but I recognize it's possible that the "AT Alliance" is a front for you and Austria or something like that. Just sounded like Tatan's done a lot of wheeling and dealing, and I figured this would probably be really useful info for you.

Russia is probably an easy friend for you btw - Rowain is not too pleased with Austria right now to say the least.

-scooter

Quite possible there's an AI going on under the surface and Tatan is just temporarily stringing Mattimeo along or something, but seems unlikely. Hopefully TT will value this info.

[scooter]

Ok so I went ahead and sent a message to Tasunke - just want to see what he says. Here it is:

Hey Tasunke - so now that I have your real email address, figured I need to send you a quick message. I'll be honest - your moves in the spring were pretty anti-France. An attempt to order Lon-Eng and army into Wales are both intents to convoy into my land. Obviously that concerns me a bit. I took that and your silence as signs that you didn't intend to be friendly with me, but now that I know I've been sending emails to some random guy and not you, I'd like to hear any thoughts you have have. What are you looking for? Are you pretty much set on being my enemy or not really?

Let me know if you're interested in opening up a discussion of some sort. Not a lot of time left, but I should be around quite a bit tonight so I will definitely do what I can. Just let me know!

-scooter

[scooter]

I somewhat begrudgingly approved the time extension. Basically, from the start I was concerned about the "vets" who played in game 1 or 2 would get dogpile purely on reputation. Russia is looking at the outside of an AT right now, and I think I'd struggle to get an ally in my triangle if not for the Tasunke silence. However, this extension arguably hurts me the most. I have an FG pretty much sealed up, and now Tasunke gets 24 hours to crack it. I think I have a lot to lose here. Also, it's hard to be too sympathetic only because, sure we didn't have his email address, but that doesn't erase the fact that he never contacted any of us. We've had 24 hours before the game started, a 4 day Spring turn, and now we're 2 2/3rds days into a Fall turn (that's over a week), and he's just now contacting people. So yeah, hard to sympathize for that.

Despite that, I said to Mardoc sure only if he requested it. Then he requests it 5 minutes later . The short of it - I decided it was more important to be nice to the Diplomacy newbie than to protect my good early position. So I'm saying this to say - if Bigger stabs me and an EG comes after me, I'm going to go claim some seeeeeerious moral high ground . And then I'm going to guilt the CRAP out of both of them until one cracks . More seriously - just wanted to lay out my reasons for why I don't like this - short version is I'm the one with the most to lose from an extension. That said - I decided to OK it. So if my decision ends up in screwing me, I'll pre-emptively take the blame here for that .

I'll talk with Tasunke some too. I"m just unsure what tack to take with him because honestly, our plan sort of banks on him ordering Lon-ENG, but if I'm arguing for an alliance with him I'd want him to leave it empty. So it's a really awkward position to "negotiate" from. I'm still thinking it over. I'll hear him out, but I can't really justify stabbing Bigger, neither does it seem like a wise decision. Honestly though, regardless of who I'm allied with, my fall moves are set, so I'm not sure it really matters that much.

[Gaspar]

Had the same thought on the extension - annoyed. Not least because if the flow of diplo into my inbox (do appreciate when you forward the chats, btw) is an indication of the overall diplo flow it seems wholly unnecessary, even with a roused England. But yeah, seems like you have the most to lose. In one sense, sort of unfortunate you and Rowain are so far apart - sort of natural allies in this setup.

I definitely think Tatan's sounding dishonest. I'd be shocked if AT isn't on. Might have AI setup for after AT - it is in Austria's nature to try and make as many friends as possible early on. That said, TT indicated to you that he thought they were going to tear up A - that's clearly not going to happen. Much as I like TT as an ally for unlikelihood of a stab I think right now staying cozy as possible with Bigger is definitely priority 1 - without him you have nothing reliable. If he stabs in Fall because he decides he'd rather buddy up Tasunke, well, we're screwed.

[scooter]

Had the same thought on the extension - annoyed. Not least because if the flow of diplo into my inbox (do appreciate when you forward the chats, btw) is an indication of the overall diplo flow it seems wholly unnecessary, even with a roused England. But yeah, seems like you have the most to lose. In one sense, sort of unfortunate you and Rowain are so far apart - sort of natural allies in this setup.

I definitely think Tatan's sounding dishonest. I'd be shocked if AT isn't on. Might have AI setup for after AT - it is in Austria's nature to try and make as many friends as possible early on. That said, TT indicated to you that he thought they were going to tear up A - that's clearly not going to happen. Much as I like TT as an ally for unlikelihood of a stab I think right now staying cozy as possible with Bigger is definitely priority 1 - without him you have nothing reliable. If he stabs in Fall because he decides he'd rather buddy up Tasunke, well, we're screwed.

Yeah - you have missed a couple random chats with Bigger as he prefers chat over email, but I've mostly tried to summarize the important ones here or send them to you. But yeah - an EF doesn't make a ton of sense to me as there's just so much uncertainty over Tasunke right now - it's hard for me to justify throwing in with the guy who seems likely to disappear at random. But if Bigger thinks it's more important to knock me off and then clean up Tasunke at his leisure, not much I can do about it. The good news is that I can detect a potential Bigger stab this year if he doesn't go along with the plan, and no stab could hurt me TOO bad this year. So if he chose to do that, that gives me several day to put the full-court press on both of them and make it crack. So in that sense, I've got a bit of a safety net.

Anyways, I'm going to try today to make sure Bigger is still on board with things. Tasunke answered a couple emails and then stopped after I wrote to him saying I'd be willing to stay out of ENG. So we'll see.

Edit: Oh yeah- agreed on Tatan. He's not being straight with me. I'll keep that in mind. I would REALLY prefer to keep Bigger on my side as I'm not sure TT is going to come out strong.

[Gaspar]

Apparently not so much on the AT if T is letting R out of the Black Sea bounce. Looks like Mattimeo might be the scary one down the road over there.

Otherwise, looks all according to plan for the good guys.