[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[williams482]

No movement on the English/Canadian border, still knights and muskets hanging out with a general. There's been an english horsman traipsing around in our territory for some time now, checking out the Egyptian border. What else I've explored of Suboptimal's territory seems largely devoid of units, so there's no way he has enough ground troops in theater to make progress against Kaiser, and I assume he knows that. My best guess is that he's got a fairly considerable fleet put together somewhere out of my view, and the units on the border are a defensive force in the event that Kaiser remains allied with Woden, pushes through us, and attacks into England? He obviously isn't planning to invade us in the near future, so at least that one is off the table.

[williams482]

Turn 142:

Interestingly, suboptimal rejected my delegation. Doesn't much matter, but I do wonder why. Should find out soon enough, I suppose. Apparently Recife has been captured yet again by Phoenicia, so Brazil continues their spirited and bloody resistance. There's no way Ichabod can actually win this, but with Woden down to a three digit milpower score for the first time in a while, Suboptimal has a real chance to flip the game in his favor if he can act quickly and decisively.

Our alliance with Ichabod has completed. That extra +5 combat strength was a lifesaver for us, unfortunate that Ichabod did not benefit as much as we did. There's no particular rush on setting up another military alliance, but I do want to be thinking about who I'm willing to accept a military alliance from. Our inability to declare surprise wars (outside of someone declaring on our alliance partner) makes us a fairly unhelpful ally for any offensive action, so maybe it doesn't actually matter? And truthfully, I have no stake in deciding who wins save a stringent desire that anyone who attacks us (Kaiser!) shouldn't come away victorious. I suppose a Suboptimal comeback makes for a better story, and could be a neat reversal of the otherwise similar PBEM15, but again, not my job, not my problem.

Burke takes 23 damage. The Bruins encampment has no walls and 99 health. I have a musket standing by to reinforce if and when I deem it appropriate. Kaiser did stage an extremely minor withdrawal outside Blackhawks, and area I had not bothered to show for some time because nothing was happening:



His troop deployment is otherwise unchanged. However, we do have the opportunity to fluke a naval victory:



We suffer 19 damage, but sink Kaiser's oh so dangerous redlined galley. Take that!

Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 143:

Phonecia has conquered São Paulo, apparently for the 4th time. Ichabod now has a DoF with Kaiser. Woden also has a proposal for us:



We have no particular incentive to drag the Phoenicians down, so I'm perfectly happy to accept this favorable exchange. Done.

Kaiser is on the move again:



The obvious question is, where? The DoF with Brazil eliminates that as a possibility. It's plausible that Kaiser has finally realized that his best path to my demise is through Blues, but the apparent withdrawal from around John Lamarr doesn't support that premise. Could be an attempt at deception, but I'm guessing (hoping?) for something a little more favorable: Kaiser and Woden made an alliance some time shortly before our t114. That will expire in the next few turns, and with Woden obviously winning his Brazilian campaign, it's obvious he doesn't merit further assistance from any other contenders. Kaiser's territory is, as discussed, extremely rough and rocky and without a great road network, so the fastest route to the Phoenician city bordering Steve Newton (MISTY MOUNTAINS) may actually be to trek through the Nubian desert:



I consider sending Kaiser a peace deal with 1g/1g tacked on, but decline to do so (for the moment). My thought was to signal that I am willing to sign peace and wouldn't immediately turn on his cities if he abandoned our border, but I'm not actually sure I want to make that claim, and I'm not a fan of lying to opponents. Burke is vulnerable, likely controllable at least as far as loyalty is concerned, and has a native source of Niter that we were too poor to snatch away. More personally, I would love to come out of this war having gained a city. Thoughts on the best approach if I've correctly guessed Kaiser's intentions?

Of course, I might not have guessed his intentions correctly, and with that in mind I begin deploying Canadian troops. Our most experienced horse (Caparison promotion and 31/45 EXP) is upgraded to a courser for 125g, and tucks in to provide support bonuses and counterattack capabilities to the most vulnerable of our horsemen scouts. That horse could be attacked by a MCK, knight, and courser and would very likely die to them, but I would be able to hit back with a knight and courser of my own, plus a few extra horsemen. Not exactly an overwhelmingly favorable spot for me with my ranged support lagging behind and I'd much rather Kaiser didn't attack, but I can repay blood with blood here.



Our crossbow shoots Burke for 27, knocking it into "yellow" health for the first time. Unfortunately, our encampment is down to 83/100, indicating Kaiser dealt 37 last turn. I may be forced to stuff a musket in there if Kaiser's troops turn around, or if this is some kind of subterfuge to get a secondary army to attack us from his core while our primary force redeploys to the southwest. Meanwhile, Suboptimal's forces continue to hug the border:



Wild needs a project. It has Magus in place and a bunch of low quality flat jungle to chop. Of the mediocre district options available, the best might be a +3 IZ, and that's still pretty damn mediocre, returning it's investment in 43 turns. I decide to invest in fantasy and start on a siege tower, due in 8 turns. I should be able to chop it to completion and get some uncanceled overflow into a district if that seems appropriate, or I can switch to a unit or Medieval Walls once policy cards are in place. I definitely haven't been putting much thought into economic planning outside of the generalities of "build more settlers," I'll try to emphasize that a little more if we can earn peace.

We did earn another envoy this turn, granting us seven total. That would be exactly enough to take control of Geneva, and we could do it with one to spare with the Diplomatic League card in place. There is no other place we can put envoys that grants us any benefit whatsoever, so I am seriously considering this after a policy swap, but it obviously isn't the most efficient option right now, and still may not net us anything if Kaiser is able to exceed our investment in response.

Suboptimal is all the way up to 52 coal stockpiled, and Woden earned his first 2 this turn. Scores: 

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

What do we have to gain from making peace with Kaiser? Breathing room to settle more cities? Bah, at the cost of giving HIM breathing room to redeploy to face Woden or Suboptimal. I think we do better to keep his army pinned down, or, if he redeploys it, then we take our rightful cities along the river. Then we shall have peace. Plus, we may continue to get scraps thrown our way from the big boys if we remain a useful cat's paw against Egypt.

[williams482]

What do we have to gain from making peace with Kaiser? Breathing room to settle more cities? Bah, at the cost of giving HIM breathing room to redeploy to face Woden or Suboptimal. I think we do better to keep his army pinned down, or, if he redeploys it, then we take our rightful cities along the river. Then we shall have peace. Plus, we may continue to get scraps thrown our way from the big boys if we remain a useful cat's paw against Egypt.

Of course, what am I thinking. Kaiser shall continue to rue the day he chose to attack us. 

Oh, and we're settling those cities anyway. We don't have a lot of land left to claim, but it's all very safe backfill.

[williams482]

Turn 144:

Kaiser, as it turns out, has no plans for peace with Canada:



One horse dead, another at half health. As I noted in my last report, attacking here does put Kaiser in a good position. I could hit back, with my ranged support a turn behind I can't kill anything and I'll leave very valuable units exposed to a counterattack. Instead, our units fall back, inviting Kaiser to come see these big shiny city walls for himself:



The Bruins encampment is down to 65 health. With 20 points of healing on the interturn, that's 38 damage dealt. It seems I underestimated the degree to which lost walls reduce a city's defensive strength. Moving a musket into the district will slow down the encampment's defeat, but will not prevent it. I move the musket up next to the encampment, and shoot Bruke for 29.

There isn't much point in completing a barracks in a district which is about to be destroyed, so with that building one turn from completion I swap over to a Market. Blues has completed a settler, and I start on a second, currently due in 6 but liable to take 7 once Kings finishes it's own settler in 5. That could be considered reckless behavior, but Kaiser has nothing that can crack our walls, and only a narrow edge in the field; unlike 30 turns ago, Blues is quite safe from this attack. We also get the ability to build Renesanse Walls in 5 turns, and will have a second policy swap from Diplomatic Service in either 7 or 8, so the timing is pretty good, and we could definitely use those cities for their Niter if nothing else. On that note, I have moved Red Wings one tile west onto the stone hill, to get that Niter source in the 2nd ring. I also put one turn of civics research into Diplomatic service now and will swap back next turn, allowing me to upgrade warrior to musket with both cost reducing policies in place on t146 while swapping out Retinues. I'll keep Professional Army in place to I can upgrade our heavy chariot to annother knight cheaply, I'm much more concerned about saving money than iron.

We continue to learn more about the land of England, and they continue to post Knights on our border. I continue to have no good explanation for this behavior.



Woden razed a city this turn.

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

super jealous of suboptimal's starting area, not gonna lie

[williams482]

Turn 145:

Phoenicia has burned whichever of Sáo Paulo and Recife they didn't burn last turn. Suboptimal has Suzerained Geneva, so we have the opportunity to invest some envoys. I consider waiting a turn and using Diplomatic League so we only need to invest two instead of three for the library boost, but getting 3 gpt and 4.2 bpt now seems more valuable than conserving envoys which have been come increasingly difficult to spend usefully. Our crossbow shoots Burke again, knocking it to 143/200 and earning a 3rd promotion. I'll probably move the musket in for extra defense next turn. Research on Exploration resumes in preparation for the policy swap next turn.

Kaiser has pulled back everything, except his highly promoted musket escorting a ram:



I suspect he is unaware that the ram will be completely useless against our defenses, or he wouldn't be bothering with it. Or, perhaps this is an attempt at subterfuge, towards some objective totally beyond my present comprehension. Who's to say? Anyway, I have two crossbows which can see that unit, and with the river impeding movement they are safe from counterattacks, so despite doing minimal damage, I see no harm in shooting. The first shot deals 7, the second 8, and very little of substance has changed.



At Blackhawks, I decide to place a discounted Theater Square, on the aqueduct pin I placed after that one drout which hit this area eons ago. It's an 8 turn build worth one culture per turn, and I can add another 2 culture with an adjacent Entertainment Complex at some point (probably from Stars). Possibly a frivolous build, but in our awkward little no mans land of being safe from invasion but incapable of hitting back, some long term investment is necessary to prolong our existence and a discounted +1 adjacency district isn't the worst thing.

Kaiser is now generating Coal, which doesn't matter to us (unless he sends an ironclad through Suboptimal to attack Penguins) but does indicate that his industrial prowess is about to skyrocket. He has 7 stockpiled right now, and had zero on t143 (I didn't check resources last turn). I spot one otherwise inexplicable faith generating mine in his territory, which should be worth +3 coal per turn. Chances are he has another source under a district, and maybe traded some to suboptimal, who has 77? If this game was winnable, I'd add coal and oil columns to the spreadsheet, but I've been lax about updating the columns I do have lately.

The Trader at Blackhawks has completed it's route. I transfer to Penguins, in hopes of getting a road through the swamp south of Blues.

Suboptimal's military is scary big, 482 milpower larger than Woden's. I do hope he finds a way to use it soon, and I'm quite grateful that target cannot be us. 

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Surprised this game si reaching Industrial! Woden might not be running away with it after all - England is hanging in there and is about to reach its major power spike. Woden giving up the ghost and burning those Brazilian cities means he needs to move to knock out Kaiser and sub while he's got an edge, still (or he needs to develop his superior empire score into a position of advantage). Thus, if I were Phoenicia, once I took the Brazilian capital I might think about seeing if I could peace out with Brazil now that he's no longer a contender, and move on Egypt or England. See if I could provoke a conflict somehow between Kaiser and sub, as the two united against Woden could cause him trouble.

[williams482]

Turn 146:

Exploration completes:



Kaiser regained Suzerainty of Bologna, who once again declare war on us. I scout forward a little more aggressively this turn, and find that Kaiser has all but abandoned the Nubian desert:



Two Pike and Shot and two muskets make for a formidable protective force, if that is what they are. I think this supports my earlier theory that Kaiser has designs on Woden, but obviously I can't afford to get sloppy. Also of note, Burke has completed ancient walls, just in time for me to stop shooting at it. I pull the crossbow back and promote Emplacement, most likely a ridiculous and self defeating choice, but one that allows me to take Expert Marksman for a second attack if I am somehow able to promote this unit again. That leaves room for the musket to enter the encampment, now at 23/100 health. Chances are, that encampment will be at 20/100 next turn, the lowest it can be on our turns until Kaiser gets a unit up here to destroy it properly. My two crossbows from before fire on the musket for annother 7 and 8 damage. I will continue until both get a promotion (currently neither has one), then reconsider. I am aware that this musket could attack one of the crossbows if it promoted amphibious, but it could not get a kill on it's own, and no other Egyptian unit could attack across the river from the fog. 

I upgrade warrior to musket for 205g, then make a policy swap, dropping Retinues for Limes:



I place discounted Industrial Zones at Kings and Wild, and chop a jungle at Wild to complete half of the district. I'll chop another jungle to complete it on t148, then place a mine to bump the adjacency to +3. Kings continues on it's settler, and will work on it's own +3 IZ (+4 with another district) when convenient.



The trader at Penguins goes to Geneva for 6gpt and a beaker. If Geneva can not declare war for just five more turns, I'll have a road through the Blues swamp and can switch over to another, more profitable route. Some of Suboptimal's coastal cities are worth 12gpt, pretty nice. Unsurprisingly, Suboptimal does have frigates. Kaiser is up to 10 coal, suggesting that the mine I pinned is his only source.

Scores: