WW20: Lair of the Lurkers

[Ichabod]

I'll go with a "no-day talk" PR my next scum game. Just gotta work a way to make Uberfish not modkill me due to no votes...

Nah, that's easy - you are allowed to make one post voting during the day, and must only use this post within the last half an hour before deadline. So it's hardly your fault if you switch to the "wrong" person & can't move again ... and you'll apologise ever so much in the night time

In fact, I'm ahead of this already. I'll have a "Vote Restriction": I can only vote for villagers.

How do I know the people I voted for were villagers?! Well.... Hm... Ah, I know all the wolves identities, but I can't vote for them, nor can I tell the other villagers their names.

[Rowain]

Also, I completely fabricated my post restriction, for anyone who was wondering.

How did it makes sense with your character anyway? I'm surprised it wasn't questioned more.

For me prsonally I didn't care. a) you had originally told molach & flug that they can only talk during the night so why shouldn't you put a no nighttalk restriction on someone.

b) Does anyone recognize a difference between Azza has a postrestricton and Azza plays just his usual way?

[Bigger]

Also, I completely fabricated my post restriction, for anyone who was wondering.

How did it makes sense with your character anyway? I'm surprised it wasn't questioned more.

For me prsonally I didn't care. a) you had originally told molach & flug that they can only talk during the night so why shouldn't you put a no nighttalk restriction on someone.

b) Does anyone recognize a difference between Azza has a postrestricton and Azza plays just his usual way?

no

[zakalwe]

The awkward way in which he claimed the restriction was a scum tell, though. His play on day 1 was scummy, too. Of course, that case was hard to take seriously.

[Bigger]

le chuck for some reason has a blind spot for molach, which is unfortunate. I think molach and azza were "distancing" quite obviously... especially Azza's "why hasn't molach been lynched yet," despite never voting for him before that.

I wish I hadn't let myself get distracted by matt and jkaen. azza and molach were always my top suspects, but both matt and jkaen got my attention really close to the lynch, and were just much easier to lynch. I shoulda stuck to my gut and my top suspects.

I haven't caught up on today, but.. I guess Meiz is SK? not positive but seems most likely. I have trouble picturing Q as scum here. If Ryan is scum then he has done a great job faking his anger (it has crossed my mind). But just by process of elimination I guess I'd mark Pindicator as last scum. I'd still lynch molach first if I was alive though - there aren't any "cleared innocents" or even obvious innocents left so the night deaths would make the last day easier.

I guess village will need SK to target the last wolf for village to win anyway.

[Azza]

Man alive Azza, why didn't you blow up the obvSK? Could have night killed Serdoa tonight, have to presume you can't night kill the SK.

If it's too spoilery to post in here, would you be able to PM me who you think the obvSK is?


I saw it a little earlier in this thread someone saying lurking is a scum tell or something along those lines. I think that's a bit of a fallacy. For a start, I wouldn't even describe myself as a lurker. I try to contribute every time I feel I have something to add to the thread. But because of the volume of posts, it gets overwhelming. I think it hurts the village too, because there's a lot more noise, and filtering out the crap from the noise becomes a chore. There were a fair few times I thought to myself "gee, I hope people don't pick up on that post" for posts made either by me or my scum buddies that were ignored completely by the village.

Looking at 17, 19 and of those revealed so far in 20, the only time there's been a lurker scum (who wasn't me) was Selrahc in 19, and he was caught because of the content of his posts, not his lurkiness. And if you look at my play in 16 when I was town and 18 when confirmed mason from day 1, I was as much of a lurker in both of those games. So again, it's clearly not the lurkiness that identifies me as being scummy.

I think the constant rehash of lurker = scum is very detrimental and detracts from good scumhunting. And at the same time, it pushes up the noise in the thread, making it easier to hide. Anyway, that's just my thoughts on it, since I felt like it needed addressing.

[Bigger]

thats the point, lurker scum can get away with it. even more reason to lynch lurkers - more to gain if you're right, less to lose if you're wrong.

[Bigger]

ok so pindicator and molach are the last 2 wolves. I don't see any reason there would only be 5 scum here, so we've probably already lost (barring the SK accidently killing the last wolf - I don't think he would do it on purpose at this point)>

SK? I guess Meiz, although I'm less certain. I guess it could be Q - I don't think he could be a wolf, but he could be a SK.

edit: I've avoided the spoiler comments. thanks for putting those in spoiler tags, btw .

[Bigger]

Also pindi if you were village you would have realized that if you're not scum and Qg isn't scum then it would have to be Ryan who was the last scum. INstead you went after Molach because that's your best chance of survival.

Molach has been active, he has been thoughtful, he has posted good thoghts and he has been engaging he has not been this loner player you guy shave tried to paint him as to fit him into the SK role! He's been after Azza for days as well. His behavior does not fit with scum or with SK.

sigh.. does Lewwyn have a blind spot for Molach, or do I? This has no been my impression of Molach at all - quite the opposite. I agree its best to assume 1 scum and 1sk, might as well play to win 'cuz we're prob screwed with 3 scum left, but don't let that paint your judgement of people.

also, the Lewwyn/pin argument sure escalated fast .

[Gaspar]

ok so pindicator and molach are the last 2 wolves. I don't see any reason there would only be 5 scum here, so we've probably already lost (barring the SK accidently killing the last wolf - I don't think he would do it on purpose at this point)>

SK? I guess Meiz, although I'm less certain. I guess it could be Q - I don't think he could be a wolf, but he could be a SK.

edit: I've avoided the spoiler comments. thanks for putting those in spoiler tags, btw .

Why would the SK go after village? Let's take your example.

Scum: Pindicator, Molach
SK: Meiz
Town: Lewwyn, Qg, Ryan

Let's say town mislynches today, let's say Ryan. That brings it down 2-1-2. Assume can't or won't kill the SK, scum kills Lewwyn as the most confirmed villager. That's 2-1-1. If the SK hits village, he's lost because obviously the scum will vote together there. If the SK hits scum lylo is 1-1-1 and the SK can win by convincing the villager. (BTW, if the villager gets lynched in that situation, who wins? )

So essentially, if town mislynch today the town loses and is just a prop to see whether the scum or the SK wins.

Now, if town kills the SK its 2-3 and you have lylo the next morning.

If town lynches scum its 1-1-3. Again, if SK goes after village he's got 1-1-1 lylo. But if he hits the scum, he's at 1-2 and just has to convince a villager (who will be an easier mark, in theory since the scum will be pretty sure who the SK is at the point.)

Basically, its always more advantageous for the SK to hit scum at this point. With or without spoilers it should be evident that he was going for them last night. I was a happy accident - at that early stage, the SK would actually probably not care at all who he kills but maybe slightly prefer a villager. But there's no question the scum are a bigger threat to the SK winning the game at this point.

(By the same token, this suggests that the town is now better off killing the SK after Azza blew up. 2-2 lylo is still a possible if unlikely win chance. 1-1-1 lylo the townie is most likely just going to end up choosing either the SK or the scum as winner. (P.S. I assume 2-2 is lylo and not scum win though I haven't checked remaining influence scores. Either way, town is pretty much screwed regardless at this point - which they should be, they haven't actually lynched a scum variety yet.)