WW20: Lair of the Lurkers

[Azza]

thats the point, lurker scum can get away with it. even more reason to lynch lurkers - more to gain if you're right, less to lose if you're wrong.

I think you missed my point. I don't get away with it because I lurk, I get away with it because too many people miss the scum tells I leave.

I'll elaborate post-game, when I don't risk giving any spoilers.

[Bigger]

ok so pindicator and molach are the last 2 wolves. I don't see any reason there would only be 5 scum here, so we've probably already lost (barring the SK accidently killing the last wolf - I don't think he would do it on purpose at this point)>

SK? I guess Meiz, although I'm less certain. I guess it could be Q - I don't think he could be a wolf, but he could be a SK.

edit: I've avoided the spoiler comments. thanks for putting those in spoiler tags, btw .

Why would the SK go after village? Let's take your example.

Scum: Pindicator, Molach
SK: Meiz
Town: Lewwyn, Qg, Ryan

Let's say town mislynches today, let's say Ryan. That brings it down 2-1-2. Assume can't or won't kill the SK, scum kills Lewwyn as the most confirmed villager. That's 2-1-1. If the SK hits village, he's lost because obviously the scum will vote together there. If the SK hits scum lylo is 1-1-1 and the SK can win by convincing the villager. (BTW, if the villager gets lynched in that situation, who wins? )

So essentially, if town mislynch today the town loses and is just a prop to see whether the scum or the SK wins.

Now, if town kills the SK its 2-3 and you have lylo the next morning.

If town lynches scum its 1-1-3. Again, if SK goes after village he's got 1-1-1 lylo. But if he hits the scum, he's at 1-2 and just has to convince a villager (who will be an easier mark, in theory since the scum will be pretty sure who the SK is at the point.)

Basically, its always more advantageous for the SK to hit scum at this point. With or without spoilers it should be evident that he was going for them last night. I was a happy accident - at that early stage, the SK would actually probably not care at all who he kills but maybe slightly prefer a villager. But there's no question the scum are a bigger threat to the SK winning the game at this point.

(By the same token, this suggests that the town is now better off killing the SK after Azza blew up. 2-2 lylo is still a possible if unlikely win chance. 1-1-1 lylo the townie is most likely just going to end up choosing either the SK or the scum as winner. (P.S. I assume 2-2 is lylo and not scum win though I haven't checked remaining influence scores. Either way, town is pretty much screwed regardless at this point - which they should be, they haven't actually lynched a scum variety yet.)

I'm assuming village can actually hit a scum today. if they mislynch a villager its irrelevant, all hope is lost . and then of course SK would want to kill a wolf.

if town lynches SK, game is over too - after kill tonight it will be 2-2.

if town lynches wolf, then 3-1-1. i would think SK would be better off in 1-1-1 scenario than 2-1. I guess it would be his judgement though, it could go other way.

[Rowain]

Hurray the forum is f+++ up again

Did find this post by Meiz only via the new-reply-button

Lewwyn, you need to take a step back from your confirmation bias on me. You mentioned Molach clearing me as the SK and refusing to vote me. What the SK needs to do is get a player with him to the end game, who will be voted over him.

Molach has been active, he has been thoughtful, he has posted good thoghts and he has been engaging he has not been this loner player you guy shave tried to paint him as to fit him into the SK role! He's been after Azza for days as well. His behavior does not fit with scum or with SK.

I agree his behavior does not fit scum. But to repeat myself, the comparison to his villager game is very different. He was the top poster there, and he had urgency in his posts. Where is his urgency to hunt to SK now? He just needs to lynch Pind today, and then let you vote me off tomorrow.

Wrote: Just gonna say again, Molach isn't scum. His posts, his attacks on Azza, everything says he's not scum. His role as a neighbor actually points towards him being scum not SK. Scum I could see having that role because we've seen it in other games, btu I think Uber made both neighbors village for just that reason. And he's not SK.

Pin and Meiz have to go that's all there is to it.

We have also had villager-villager neighbor roles, more than villager-wolf. Stop trying to outguess uber to make assumptions as facts. It has never worked.


At this point I'm starting to feel the only way we can win this game is to prove I'm not the SK by lynching Molach. I'd rather vote Pind, but Lewwyn you need to reconsider your stance on me.

Does Meiz not realise that lynching the SK (which he implies he wants to do) would lose the game for village? Or does he realise it and wants to get rid of the SK because he is scum? I would be very much inclined to lynch Meiz for this post.

[Bigger]

thats the point, lurker scum can get away with it. even more reason to lynch lurkers - more to gain if you're right, less to lose if you're wrong.

I think you missed my point. I don't get away with it because I lurk, I get away with it because too many people miss the scum tells I leave.

I'll elaborate post-game, when I don't risk giving any spoilers.

the more you post, the greater chance to trip up and leave tells, or make those tells more obvious. (you = everyone, not you specifically).

[Rowain]

Does Meiz not realise that lynching the SK (which he implies he wants to do) would lose the game for village? Or does he realise it and wants to get rid of the SK because he is scum? I would be very much inclined to lynch Meiz for this post.

Although I can't believe him beeing scum. IMO he is either brilliant scum or extremly shortsighted/stupid. Last hope he is a villager that has a plan and will not lose the game right there.

I'm sure once Lewwyn reads his posts he will explode.

[Rowain]

Does Meiz not realise that lynching the SK (which he implies he wants to do) would lose the game for village? Or does he realise it and wants to get rid of the SK because he is scum? I would be very much inclined to lynch Meiz for this post.

Although I can't believe him beeing scum. IMO he is either brilliant scum or extremly shortsighted/stupid. Last hope he is a villager that has a plan and will not lose the game right there.

I'm sure once Lewwyn reads his posts he will explode.

Scratch the comments about Meiz. If it is 4:1:1 it doesn't matter if they kill village or SK only in 3.2:1 it is mandatory to kill a scum and not the SK.

[zakalwe]

Azza, I agree that spam can be a bad thing in these threads, but I don't think there was that much of it in this game. It's just a big game, so there's a lot to read, and to the extent that you even find time for looking back, you become very reliant on the scraper.

I wouldn't say town focused too much on chasing lurkers. I agree that they overlooked some scum tells from you, though. And like Gaspar said, they were definitely overthinking things.

[Azza]

thats the point, lurker scum can get away with it. even more reason to lynch lurkers - more to gain if you're right, less to lose if you're wrong.

I think you missed my point. I don't get away with it because I lurk, I get away with it because too many people miss the scum tells I leave.

I'll elaborate post-game, when I don't risk giving any spoilers.

the more you post, the greater chance to trip up and leave tells, or make those tells more obvious. (you = everyone, not you specifically).

I know what you mean, and i agree to an extent, but in practice it seems that the scum tells are missed, ignored or forgotten about because of the volume of posts and the 10 different agendas being pushed every day.

Azza, I agree that spam can be a bad thing in these threads, but I don't think there was that much of it in this game. It's just a big game, so there's a lot to read, and to the extent that you even find time for looking back, you become very reliant on the scraper.

I wouldn't say town focused too much on chasing lurkers. I agree that they overlooked some scum tells from you, though. And like Gaspar said, they were definitely overthinking things.

This game wasn't too bad in both respects, I agree. But it is part of the overall trend I've noticed in the past few games.

Overthinking things is a massive and related issue. People seem to think the scum team are extremely organised and creating all sorts of elaborate plans. It can happen, but a simpler solution is often closer to the truth.

[Serdoa]

2 points:

1) It is very easy to look from the lurker-thread over into the main-thread and get the impression that players should "see" stuff. Fact is, you have more information here already, even if it is only slightly more information and you don't have to think about who to convince others about what you think you've seen.

2) I'm not sure how much the dead players here suspected Azza BEFORE he blew up

That said, I am a little bit surprised that it seems no one is even looking back through Azzas posts. I'm not sure there is much to find, but it sure would make sense to read the posts to be certain. Players are much too locked in at this point, I don't care if pindicator is scum or village he is right in that regard. Meiz is not interested in scum-hunting at all for example and if Lewwyn believes we are at 4-1-1 and also that Meiz is the SK than he should vote to lynch Meiz, because it would make no difference.

Similarly they should take a good hard look at Molach. He didn't say anything about having spotty access directly after the kill though now that he became a target he comes up with that. Could be the truth of course, but I'd rather expect that he is just trying to avoid the lynch today. His statement that he would answer the points against him ON THE NEXT DAY should tell you all you need to know.

[Serdoa]

thats the point, lurker scum can get away with it. even more reason to lynch lurkers - more to gain if you're right, less to lose if you're wrong.

I think you missed my point. I don't get away with it because I lurk, I get away with it because too many people miss the scum tells I leave.

I'll elaborate post-game, when I don't risk giving any spoilers.

the more you post, the greater chance to trip up and leave tells, or make those tells more obvious. (you = everyone, not you specifically).

I know what you mean, and i agree to an extent, but in practice it seems that the scum tells are missed, ignored or forgotten about because of the volume of posts and the 10 different agendas being pushed every day.

Azza, don't forget the villagers don't know who scum is. Of course you see scum tells missed because you already know they are scum. We do not know, so for a villager it might just be an oddity. It is certainly not as easily spotted - and that imo has nothing to do with the volume of posts (I'd believe that I read most posts thoroughly) but with scum simply having more information. If you ever lied and are questioned about it, you should know that feeling, that "It has to be obvious I am lieing" but the other isn't seeing it. Not because he is blind, but because it is not as obvious as it appears to you, having all the information already.