Turn 20 - Japan

Here's what passes for a big turn in the early-game
Hakuho finishes the settler with 9 hammers from PFH+PJH, drops to size 1 working PJH, and regrows to size 2 after adding 2 surplus food from the PJH. Note that we're actually one food ahead of where I expected to be - we effectively got a turn of working the 9 hammer configuration at a +2 food surplus! With 29 base hammers needed for the HS, we will get 13 this turn, then 8 the two following turns, and are on track for the 3-turn build, at least according to the interface. I chose to do the PFH turn first as a hedge against somehow having my math wrong here - it just makes me feel better to see that 3 on the screen instead of a 4, I guess
Similarly, I didn't switch to sailing after finishing Astro this turn, as it would finish next turn with overflow and I'm paranoid that finishing a tech will mess up the HS math somehow even though I know I have no rational reason to be. Instead, after lots of second-guessing between it and Pottery -> Irrigation, I put a turn into AH so we can see where the horses are before the second city places its holy site. Of the six visible horse-eligible tiles on my island, fully half of them are at the second city, and accidentally paving over the horse would be a huge setback to the growth curve. Luckily, discovering a third tech with 2 civics in the bank will not escalate the HS cost, so we do have the headroom necessary to do this. But I do have to remember to swap back to sailing next turn so it will finish on t23 like we need it to.
Lastly, barbs. Despite an ominous move from the scout, I attacked the camp this turn and rolled expected value, doing 29 damage to 28 damage taken and earning 5 XP. I think I'd better heal this turn to avoid unnecessary risks, but after that I might attack again instead of healing to 92 health so I can get in THREE boosted hits before we swap out of Discipline on t23. Then we can promote-heal and clean up the camp no problem
A shot of Portugal, with TAD's hilarious 4 vision settler scouting on its way to the second city site:

Two big tells to look for in the scores this turn - settler pop-drops and Foreign Trade completions. The following players visibly completed a settler with a capital dropping to size 1:
- Woden
- Banzailizard
- TheArchduke
(- Chevalier last turn)
Of course, thrawn/krill could easily have hid theirs with pop growth, as our Japan did, so I think the best assumption is still that all players save incurian currently have a settler out.
The following players completed Foreign Trade this turn, and likely immediately started on ships:
- Banzailizard
- thrawn
- TheArchduke
Notably, CMF could have done so with their t10 monument but didn't, and probably has some clefs in Craftsmanship like me as a result. So no evidence yet that any other team is double-fisting early galleys like we are, though a part of me still expects such evidence to start trickling in over the next few turns.
Oh, and incurian cleared a barb camp this turn, which had BETTER not respawn next to us
But I didn't hear the camp spawn noise at the end of my turn this time, so I'm guessing we finally lucked out on that front.
I am wondering if the monument at my second city might be a more compelling second purchase than Portugal's second trader... 2 culture seems to be worth a bit more than 9 gold/1 faith in the early game, and that city really wants BOTH the second-ring crabs and sheep ASAP so it can get to size 4 with only tile improvements. Also, I do not really have the hammer headroom to hard-build the monument any time soon as we are already committed to galley-first to hit Geneva, and I think a builder is then the mandatory second build to fix the housing nightmare.

Here's what passes for a big turn in the early-game

Hakuho finishes the settler with 9 hammers from PFH+PJH, drops to size 1 working PJH, and regrows to size 2 after adding 2 surplus food from the PJH. Note that we're actually one food ahead of where I expected to be - we effectively got a turn of working the 9 hammer configuration at a +2 food surplus! With 29 base hammers needed for the HS, we will get 13 this turn, then 8 the two following turns, and are on track for the 3-turn build, at least according to the interface. I chose to do the PFH turn first as a hedge against somehow having my math wrong here - it just makes me feel better to see that 3 on the screen instead of a 4, I guess

Similarly, I didn't switch to sailing after finishing Astro this turn, as it would finish next turn with overflow and I'm paranoid that finishing a tech will mess up the HS math somehow even though I know I have no rational reason to be. Instead, after lots of second-guessing between it and Pottery -> Irrigation, I put a turn into AH so we can see where the horses are before the second city places its holy site. Of the six visible horse-eligible tiles on my island, fully half of them are at the second city, and accidentally paving over the horse would be a huge setback to the growth curve. Luckily, discovering a third tech with 2 civics in the bank will not escalate the HS cost, so we do have the headroom necessary to do this. But I do have to remember to swap back to sailing next turn so it will finish on t23 like we need it to.
Lastly, barbs. Despite an ominous move from the scout, I attacked the camp this turn and rolled expected value, doing 29 damage to 28 damage taken and earning 5 XP. I think I'd better heal this turn to avoid unnecessary risks, but after that I might attack again instead of healing to 92 health so I can get in THREE boosted hits before we swap out of Discipline on t23. Then we can promote-heal and clean up the camp no problem

A shot of Portugal, with TAD's hilarious 4 vision settler scouting on its way to the second city site:

Two big tells to look for in the scores this turn - settler pop-drops and Foreign Trade completions. The following players visibly completed a settler with a capital dropping to size 1:
- Woden
- Banzailizard
- TheArchduke
(- Chevalier last turn)
Of course, thrawn/krill could easily have hid theirs with pop growth, as our Japan did, so I think the best assumption is still that all players save incurian currently have a settler out.
The following players completed Foreign Trade this turn, and likely immediately started on ships:
- Banzailizard
- thrawn
- TheArchduke
Notably, CMF could have done so with their t10 monument but didn't, and probably has some clefs in Craftsmanship like me as a result. So no evidence yet that any other team is double-fisting early galleys like we are, though a part of me still expects such evidence to start trickling in over the next few turns.
Oh, and incurian cleared a barb camp this turn, which had BETTER not respawn next to us
But I didn't hear the camp spawn noise at the end of my turn this time, so I'm guessing we finally lucked out on that front.I am wondering if the monument at my second city might be a more compelling second purchase than Portugal's second trader... 2 culture seems to be worth a bit more than 9 gold/1 faith in the early game, and that city really wants BOTH the second-ring crabs and sheep ASAP so it can get to size 4 with only tile improvements. Also, I do not really have the hammer headroom to hard-build the monument any time soon as we are already committed to galley-first to hit Geneva, and I think a builder is then the mandatory second build to fix the housing nightmare.


