WW20: Lair of the Lurkers

[novice]

I still think molach and pin could both be scum. not sure why there's a 4-1 scum theory in the lurker lounge??

You think there should be 25% scum AND a serial killer? Isn't that a bit much?

[Bigger]

I still think molach and pin could both be scum. not sure why there's a 4-1 scum theory in the lurker lounge??

You think there should be 25% scum AND a serial killer? Isn't that a bit much?

no.

5/21 is still less than 25%. 4/21 would be unfair to the wolves, I think.

uber approved my set up of 5/2 with the same amount of players, I don't know why he would balk at 5/1.

i've been assuming 5/1 or 6/0 all game, tbh.

[Gazglum]

I can't believe Pindicator is going to survive the day. I've got a feeling that Lewwyn is about to wake up to find out that the village has lost.

I remember asking about how many wolves were likely in the game around Day 2, and being generally told that it would be 4. If it turns out to be 5, it will be interesting to see who were the ones casting doubt on that theory - not that it matters much at this point.

[Gazglum]

What happens if the game becomes unwinnable for the town? Does Uberfish let them know, or do we watch the last hopeless squirming for a day or two until everyone is dead?

[Rowain]

I can't believe Pindicator is going to survive the day. I've got a feeling that Lewwyn is about to wake up to find out that the village has lost.

I remember asking about how many wolves were likely in the game around Day 2, and being generally told that it would be 4. If it turns out to be 5, it will be interesting to see who were the ones casting doubt on that theory - not that it matters much at this point.

IMO 5 wolves + 1 SK is too much.

Just take a simple example say the SK hits a wolf every 4th nighht (which would be the expected value at the start) and assume he starts with hitting a wolf N1 but village N2,3,4. village mislynches D1,2,3,4 and scum kills successfull 1,2,3,4.
start with 15 v 5 w 1 s after the aforementioned actions you end with

4 v 4 w 1s

and you already have a situation where the village lose when it hits the SK instead of scum and that after only 4 mislynches. Usual in 1-scumparty game you have as many mislynches as wolves.

[flugauto]

[Serdoa]

Last post for the night.

I am anxious to lynch pind today because:
1) I'm 100% sure of him being scum. Who is SK I'm !100% sure. Mislynch = loss. The night might give info relevant to the SK hunt, but the scum hunt is over, just "Finish him!" left.
2) I can't defend today. I would have given heads-up earlier, but I did not know this was gonna be day phase. Hence, today is the day for opportunistic mislynch of me.
3) Why is pind voting me? If he does know who the sk is - having followed him a night - he is NOT voting for sk tonight. Think Pindicator helping to lynch SK gives him town lean for tomorrow? His only hope is getting someone other than SK lynched, which might lead to a draw. There exists a possibility is that he suspects me of being SK too, and is just hoping the scum will outlast SK, I'll give him that.

Pind has played a very good game so far, we had to narrow it down to scum by elimination.

I know who would have my vote right now.

1) No explanation for why he is sure that pindicator is the last scum. Just that he is. And if he expects a 4-1-1 right now, a mislynch would lead to a 3-1-1 and after the night to a 1-1-1 at worst. Village loses in that case - but none of the scum is certainly winning either. Better to kill the other, especially for SK if he has a nightkill-immunity. Just get a villager lynched the next day and you win. So I doubt this whole "The scum will both kill a villager". Especially as it also assumes that they won't double up on one.

So I really don't like that first point. Mainly because he isn't explaining why pindi is scum, but also because I feel he is try to play up the fear of a mislynch so the villagers stop questioning him.

2) Nobody else knew that he can't defend today, so whats the point? There are just not enough players left that are suspected at this point, so if he is villager he will be the designated mislynch anyhow, no matter if he is around or not. Imo he tries to play up his importance here to make it sound like that was all some kind of extraordinary play by the wolves.

3) I don't really get that point to be honest. pindicator voting for him is not voting for the SK? There is nothing making me believe that he can't be the SK, so that part of his point comes down to trusting him or not, but it is no kind of evidence for pindicators guilt at all. Then he writes

"Think Pindicator helping to lynch SK gives him town lean for tomorrow? His only hope is getting someone other than SK lynched, which might lead to a draw."

The first part sounds as if Molach is the SK and tries to say "why does pindi vote for me, does he think voting for me, the SK, will give him a town lean tomorrow?". That honestly sounds for me more like Molach trying to tell pindi "Hey buddy, don't vote me, we can get a draw if we both live through this". The second part then though is just the opposite and states that he hopes not to lynch the SK today - which is not really true if he is the last wolf imo. Get Molach (if SK) lynched today, 4-1, nightkill Lewwyn 3-1, tell that you followed Ryan to Lewwyn, get Ryan lynched (I think he is the easiest to get lynched, though Meiz might be an option too) 2-1, nightkill Meiz 1-1 -> wolf win. Not really the best chances of course, but certainly better than getting lynched today and losing for certain or getting a villager lynched and go into a 3-1-1 night with a potential 1-1-1 and at best draw (but in a high-power game I'd assume that one should fear which powers the SK might have and not gamble on that tbh).

And the next sentence from Molach already contradicts himself. First he stated that pindi is not voting for the SK because he wants the draw, now he says "or maybe he thinks I am the SK". Put together: His play makes no sense for me tbh, but I won't try to actually find the truth, just lynch the guy.

Finally his last sentence is imo full of deceit. It just reiterates his point that pindi is the last scum and tries to "compliment" the villagers that they didn't do anything wrong, it was just pindi playing sooo good, but hey, now we got him, lets lynch him! What you think I haven't said anything? Um... oh, look, over there, a three-headed-monkey!

Hah, go me!

But seriously, gg Molach, you played very well

[Rowain]

i've been assuming 5/1 or 6/0 all game, tbh.

Really?? Did you saying something like that in Gamethread?

[Rowain]

If there are 2 scum left the villagers have just successfully handed them the game.

[Bigger]

i've been assuming 5/1 or 6/0 all game, tbh.

Really?? Did you saying something like that in Gamethread?

yes.

well if I'm right about 5/1 its game over - unless wolves somehow miss on their night kill they win.

im a little shocked molach was SK and not a wolf. I guess I was half right, although my reasoning wrong, I guess Azza and Molach weren't distancing after all.

so lets hope 4/1 is correct. (or even 4/1/1 w/ a survivor would be fine, they can lynch pin and survivor +village win).