Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Irgy]

Oh oh, Lewwyn's stopped being quiet all of a sudden. Personally I think that very suspicious behaviour

[Irgy]

That said, what I do find slightly suspicious about Irgy is his methodology for catching wolves today. He portrays himself as a logical thinker, and then pulls out an arbitrary excerpt from the post count list and says that's where the wolves are likely to be found. Easiest way to "cook" the evidence, ever.

Probably, but do you see my point about lying low while not drawing attention to yourself for being too quiet? That was the point. Post counts aren't that great I agree. In fact they're lazy is what they are. Convenient, and unbiased, but easily manipulated and often misleading. But Jkaen still fits the profile I was after. And I'm trying to get some new candidates to mitigate the risk of spending the first few days chasing the same bunch of villagers around while the wolves just relax and do as they please.

[fire&ice]

I am finding Jkean more and more wolf like right now. I will post my reasons in detail when I finish waking up and then when I can make time so around 7-8 hours from now.

I would like to say that I have not read the tread yet so my points may be out of date right now.

[Jkaen]

Wait, so you have not read the thread, but lately I sound like a wolf?

I look forward to the next set of wild speculation against me!

[zakalwe]

Probably, but do you see my point about lying low while not drawing attention to yourself for being too quiet?

I think I do. Though it sounds like what you're really looking for is a certain kind of behavior, and I don't think it correlates very well with post count at all. So personally, I'd rather you skip the whole post count detour and argue directly for why (and how) you think someone is trying to lie low and avoid suspicion. Backing it up with those post counts just seems more like "grasping for straws", as someone put it.

[Jkaen]

Oh, I thought I should add. If fire and ice does post his reasoning 8 hours from his last post, that will be 9PM for me. Its my weekend (working week is Sun-Thu) so I will be out drinking. Hence will probably not respond for at least 12 hours after the allegations.

[Ichabod]

Well I've read as much as I can for Day 1. This is always the toughest day in the game, such a crap shoot.

I trust novice generally enough to like him for mayor. And for a lynch? Jkaen seems as good a choice as any other.

My methodology, since I haven't enough time to make a strongly informed decision (not that any decision will be well informed without a role-claim) was to pick a generally quiet villager who is not voting with any particular bloc for either mayor or lynch target. That leads me to Jkaen.

The herbalist ran round trying to convince everybody that [strike]Meiz[/strike] looked suspicious and wolf like, but nobody seemed to listen, and alot started to make gestures of smoking as he ran around, some even turned and accused him of being a wolf!

Glancing over at Meiz he noticed the man wink briefly towards a group, and shortly after he was sure he saw MJW nod and look in his direction. It was clear the two of them were working together and were going to eat the herbalist!

Deciding one wolf was as good as the other, he joined in with the others chanting for the Inquisitor to hang, after all they had no trouble with werewolves until he came

What I'm trying to say is, that silence and not committing should be punished, and that way we force wolves to talk. It's basically the same theory as Irgy suggested in WW2, and I agree with that. Based on this philosophy, these three names stand out for me personally:

(snip)

Jkaen. I think Mr. Nice Guy described him well as a generally quiet person, who is avoiding voting blocks. Of course Jkaen switched his vote to MJW later, but that was after this comment, so I still find it a bit suspicious. More suspicious to me personally is the fact, that Jkaen is painting a target on my back with his roleplay. And as it is "just roleplay", he can easily switch his attitude later if necessary.

I'd like to underline the fact, that these are not any rock solid accusations, but that's the unfortunate case for day 1. I just think there are better candidates than the current ones.

I'm also suspicious of Jkaen ever since these posts. Jkaen only posted random roleplay votes until he received his first vote (MNG one). The reasoning behind the vote is this:

"My methodology, since I haven't enough time to make a strongly informed decision (not that any decision will be well informed without a role-claim) was to pick a generally quiet villager who is not voting with any particular bloc for either mayor or lynch target. That leads me to Jkaen".

A couple of posts later, Jkaen votes for MJW, joining the bandwagon and directly contradicting the reason for MNG to vote for him.

Meiz post is the one who made me notice this, so I posted it here too.


I think I'll keep my vote for Selrahc for a bit until more people vote. But I just wanted to point this out.

[zakalwe]

The village square was again busy when Zakofonix arrived. The atmosphere was tense but (apart from an "inspired" herbalist running around in circles over by the stables) people were being somewhat civil, in mutual recognition that nobody could be trusted. Zakofonix had been reflecting on this as he walked, and on how everybody was bound to look suspicious in one way or another. Sensing that people might be in a receptive mood, he now sat on the edge of the well, preparing to speak up. A few people paused to watch him; encouragingly, nobody was covering their ears just yet. Zakofonix proceeded to raise his voice and recite a few lines.

The vintner likes to wine and dine
but he may be fermenting your mind
The elf is always a bit too emphatic
to really be called diplomatic

The farmer has no need for a scarecrow
but still he prefers to lie low
The tailor suits his own needs
too bad the snoop is out of leads

The farmhand may seem a little too keen
if you know what I mean
The stablehand as a matter of course
ought to be hung like a horse

In anticipation, Zakofonix waited for the villagers' response.

[Jkaen]

I think somebody (forget who) pointed that out already. In fairness, my early votes were just RP, didnt see the major one as being important enough to change, but then felt my lynch vote may as well actually count.

At the time I think it was something like MJW 5, Lewwyn 4, PB 3 or something similar. From that list I decided based that the confusion factor MJW was having that I would prefer him lynched out of those 3.

As for RP v Non-RP votes, I have tried to RP my voting, but didn't really think I could argue reasons or defense if I stayed RP all game.

[Mardoc]

It's an interesting theory. What I don't like about it though is that it involves a list of the most controvertial names in the game. These are exactly the sorts of people that will fit well into this sort of theory. Do you understand what I mean? If someone was going to hallucinate (not exactly the word I'm after but you get the point) such a theory, it would involve names like this.

Whereas I'd be willing to bet that at least two if not three or four of the wolves are under the radar. Like my current vote, JKaen. The silence in response to my suggestion with him has been deafening. It's like no-one knows anything about him, nor is the least bit interested in him. It's mostly that people are too busy with their own theories, but it's still interesting. I'll have to take a look at what exactly it is he's been saying that's had such startlingly little impact on anyone.

My question for you is this: How much of your theory relies on the entire set being wolves? If you take two or three out, does it hold together in part or come crashing down in a heap? If it really only makes sense with at least four of the five members then we can put it on hold for the moment really, because if it's right we can successfully recover by returning to it very late in the game.

Yes, I think I do see your point - pretty much only novice and Meiz weren't under suspicion before.

And the 'everyone busy with their own pet theories' definitely seems true at the moment! I just disagree which pet theory is right

My theory can survive Cull being innocent, since he's been a recipient of aid but not much a giver of it. It can maybe survive Pocketbeetle being innocent. If any of the other three are innocent, then my whole theory comes crashing down. It's based almost entirely on their coordination, which only wolves can do in such a large group. I still think it's true, mind you, but it's very definitely a testable theory. And, frankly, if Cull or Pocketbeetle is innocent, then it still shoots holes in my theory because that would mean the wolves came out in the open to do suspicious things to save them.

Ironically, Mardoc should be commended for posting theories - it may be way out in left field, but it's something, and he obviously put a great deal of effort into it. That's more than most of us have done.

Thanks, I think . The hard part is going to be looking at the same evidence with different assumptions if you turn out to be right about me.

Mardoc... You seem to have constructed a theory based around your chosen suspects. There is no real linkage between them. Some of your quotes are completely random or have no purpose, ie: the comment I made about Sandover having aenough time to vote for everyone. How is that suspicious? Even the quotations that could be used to construct a theory are just twiddled into some crazy train of thought you've had. I suspected you as a wolf before, and this post does not help that case, but it does help the case that you are inexperienced player who is grasping at straws. Makes me question my vote on you actually.

...

Mardoc... picking out the 5 wolves is like winning the lotto. I don't think you're that lucky, especially with your "evidence." For the future I would suggest focusing on one or two people at a time. You can't win by seeing conspiracies. Wolves aren't going to collude so easily if the last few games are any standard.

If I'm right here, it's precisely because the 5 of you have been coordinating - it's an all or nothing deal, pretty much. And the major difference between this game and the last ones is the no-PM rule, which means only wolves can coordinate - a big advantage if played properly. I do applaud you for directly attacking the main premise of my theory.

The Sandover comment is only suspicious because it's a defense of Cull, and therefore only if Cull's guilty does it mean much of anything.

If I'm wrong, then I do apologize for jumping at shadows, but I'm just doing the best I can.

There's so much junk in this thread. Useless theory this, useless theory that. All words. We need action.

I want to lynch Novice. Yes, our dear major. I know, I had a major vote on him for a while. I moved it to Rowain once I realised who he really was, though. At that time it was too late in the day to really do something about it, but today is another day!
Sandover out.

Hey, I could get on board with that - if I'm right, he's the wolves' hub, and if I'm wrong, he's still done more suspicious things than Pocketbeetle. I definitely want to see one or both of them hang, partly to test my theory and partly cause I think they're wolves

If we can't muster enough votes but one of my other suspects is high on the list, I'll vote them instead.

[STRIKE]Pocketbeetle[/STRIKE]
novice

Mardoc, thanks for the post. While most of the content made me literally smile (people at the office are looking me weirdly btw.), it screams to me as writings of an inexperienced WW player. So despite what I said at the start of the day, [strike]Mardoc[/strike].

Fortunately we have plenty of time left, so now I just need to find another suspect.

You're quite welcome! The inexperienced player bit is definitely true. I guess we'll find out in the long haul whether I'm right. And regardless of your wolfiness, it has been fun playing with you.

Roland, I'm warming up to you today. Your "house of cards" analogy seems quite accurate for Mardoc's theories, although I tend to agree with Irgy (if I understand him correctly) and have a slightly different take on it. If it *is* a house of cards then it's essentially a more viable theory. But if you can remove or replace one suspect and easily adapt the theory to fit, then it indicates that the theory may be too vague.

I have some experience in this, having launched a "grand wolf theory" on day 2 of WW1. Throughout the game, I kept adapting the theory to fit the facts and roles that were revealed, and I never had much trouble making things fit. It's hard to give up on a baby like that, and as I have mentioned, you subconsciously want to be right. As a disclaimer I'll have to add that my own subconscious is likely to be working hard to discredit Mardoc's theory; since I failed so miserably at constructing a day 2 grand wolf theory, my ego would take a crushing blow if Mardoc actually pulled it off.

Well, I don't yet have any more evidence than before, and yes, I find it hard to believe I could be this lucky this early. I think the only reason it's potentially possible is that only the wolves have access to out of thread communication, which definitely wasn't true in WW1. Also, if I'm right, then 2 of the wolves were on the chopping block day one, and two more were in the spotlight, which meant they almost had to have acted.

Sadly, their removal of votes from me could easily fit either villager or wolf; I don't think anything's going to change my mind before we have hard evidence - either one or more of them proved innocent, or we catch a wolf that's not part of my conspiracy.

I'll state this much openly - my theory collapses if any of them but maybe Cull or Pocketbeetle is innocent - it's based almost entirely on the fact that they're working together, and no one else is. They can't be the masons because there's only 2 of those.

And even then, lynching one of those two to discover he's innocent would still make me question my theory, since if I'm right, the other three have been defending them. So if we do lynch one of them and he's innocent, expect me to get quiet again while I reevaluate.

And, the fact that many of my non-suspects question my theory is disheartening as well. Not enough to make me give up on the theory before it's tested, but disheartening.