[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[williams482]

Oh, I'm blind. That oil rig next to the pillaged road is pillaged too. Obviously Kaiser did run over here and make a mess immediately before they made peace. That's mystery solved, with no useful questions answered.

[williams482]

Turn 208:

Colonialism completes:



And with it comes an achievement to send every Canadian heart aflutter, the pinnacle of progress our civilization has toiled eons to create:



Yes, finally our nation is truly whole. War ravages foreign lands, and rumors swirl that soon we may be swept up in it once more, but for now nothing dulls the excitement of watching large armored men slap a puck around, whenever they aren't occupied with striking each other. What a marvel of modern society this is.

Wild has grown to pop 12, and is now at +1.5 loyalty per turn. The troublingly small improvement likely stems from Barry growing to pop 8. Our builder chops 166 food to drive su to pop 13, and strangely only +2.0 loyalty per turn. I can only hope this is one of those weird inconsistencies that resolves itself after a turn. It's going to get worse, because Bruins needs to swap off it's B&C project for a Military Engineer if we're going to get era score from it's railroad before this era runs out. We're 11 turns away from the soonest possible time, and I expect confirmation of that date next turn. I place an Entertainment Complex at Wild, due in 8 turns. I'll fit in a library if and when I can, but it is critical to get this down quickly for the sake of flexibility.

Is England going to get a golden age? First off, what are the thresholds here? According to a reddit post I found, the normal age threshold is your current era score + 12 + 5 * past golden ages - 5 * past dark ages + 1 * city count. For us in this era, that would be 103 + 12 + 5 + 9 = 129, which is in fact our normal age threshold. The GA threshold is that + 12. 129 + 12 = 141, our GA threshold is 143. Huh, so that's not quite right. Maybe it goes up by era? Who knows.

Anyway, Suboptimal had 138 era score at the end of the last era. He is in a GA right now, and I assume with no basis in fact that he had one other previously, and no dark ages. He has 11 cities. Thus, the formula would give him a normal age threshold of 138 + 12 + 10 + 11 = 171, and a GA threshold of 171 + 12 = 183. Our number is two points higher than the estimate, we'll assume the same for England. So 171 for normalcy, 185 for gold. They currently have 186. To answer the original question: yes, without a shadow of a doubt. All those wonders (including completing Busholi this turn) have assured him that much. I'm just going to have to hope he goes after something that isn't To Arms!, because we're going to have a much harder time stopping him if he uses that to attack us a few turns before the era roll, instead of denouncing and attacking a couple turns after.

I decide to take my chances, and swap Liang to Wild, Magus to Kings. Combined with the loss of the  B&C project, this drops loyalty to -0.8 per turn. We are at 78/100 overall, so an additional -3 for unhappiness will put us below the 75/100 threshold for -25% yields, and we are at net 0 amenities in this city so we will drop below (for this turn only) if I swap out retainers. We will not return to positives until we are back to running B&C projects, here or in Bruins. I want to make that swap so I can crank out probably three frigates, one each from Red Wings/Stars/Penguins. They can't save Red Wings, which is certifiably doomed, but I think arranged as shown in tandem with our upgraded ironclad, they can make English progress through our narrow southern straits towards Penguins and Stars quite slow and probably costly: 



Suboptimal doesn't seem big on getting units killed, so we might be able to save a city this way. That's worth a temporary injury to Wild, and bonus points if it makes suboptimal think twice about attacking us because of our wavering loyalty.

With that, I pull the trigger. Retainers is out, Press Gangs is in, Public Works is out, Triangle Trade is in:



As expected, this pushes Wild into unhapiness, and to -3.8 loyalty per turn. That should revert back to a much slower crawl into despair next turn, but if it doesn't I have the Naval Tradition policy swap in my back pocket just in case.

I make some tile swaps at Penguins, Blues, Blackhawks, Capitals, Red Wings, and Stars. Naturally, Red Wings and Wild have citizens working weak or useless tiles (two flat grass tiles at Wild!) for lack of better options, while the others cannot help but leave a couple very strong tiles entirely unused. This is further argument in favor of food chopping Blues, if and when we can do so without crippling amenity issues. As is we'll be back to pop 11 in 9 turns. Working the three new Hockey Rinks, plus the monument just completed in Blues, brings our culture rate to a maybe-in-our-dreams-respectable 82.7 per turn. That's an awesome 2/3rds of the way to our closest rival, Brazil, and a pathetic sliver of England's 289 (!!!). Red Wings and Stars slot frigates, due in 5 and 6 turns respectively. Blues starts a bank, due in 11.

Woden's troop deployments remain surprisingly sparse, although he has apparently teleported Kaiser's medic scientist back to Kelly Grayson, and he is using military engineers to place airbases on the border for his biplanes to use. I think Woden's goal here is more about trying out these fancy modern toys than actually beating Kaiser, although obviously he expects to do both. He'll need more forces than I'm seeing here if he's to pull it off.



Our musket has revealed the final tile outside Marina is a desert geothermal vent, containing exactly zero great works. I have no idea where those other three are and it is driving me nuts. Our galley is just two turns away from Red Wings' borders. If all goes as planned, might use the Nationalism policy swap to drop out of Press Gangs and into Professional Army, then the Naval Tradition swap to get back out again. Or we do something else, I dunno.

Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 209:

The Modern era will start in 10 turns. Internationally, Woden has plowed through Bologna:



Kaiser's loyalty is dominant on the tile, so the city is on track to flip in four turns and will probably be razed immediately after. No matter what, our envoy investment is wasted, and we lose 16 base beakers, as well as access to a luxury that was providing a critical four amenities. Ouch.

Wild is one of the unhappy ones, because of course it is, and is sitting on -4.3 loyalty per turn, set to flip in 18 turns. The Entertainment Complex is currently on track to finish in 10 turns and will hit that schedule if we can get an amenity back in here soon, but at current rates will drop below 50 loyalty (for a -50% penalty to yields) in 6 turns.

Kaiser has another cryptic deal for us:



He skipped over the 15g part of the sequence last turn, but he keeps it going with 20 here. No new explanations come to mind, at least none that make practical sense.

I do have the option to bring an emergency to vote:



Kaiser is already at war with Woden. Ichabod just signed a DoF and is presumably uninterested. Suboptimal likewise should have no interest. The biggest benefit to either side would be that +20 loyalty in Woden's favor. This is pointless. I pass. I do, however, offer Woden our surplus Silk in exchange for Jade.

Blackhawks completes it's Archeological museum and starts a Bank, due in 9. Blues' bank is currently 10 turns out, we would really like to shave a turn off so we get that boost before the era rolls. As with many things, that is going to come down to if and when we can get another amenity in here. I'm going to hope Woden accepts our proposal, and if he doesn't we make a policy swap. One option I'm considering for that is removing Limitanei instead of Press Gangs to put in Retainers. Wild still comes out ahead because -3 for unhappiness hurts more than +2 for a military unit helps, and we can drop Press Gangs a little later when we have frigates out.

I'm not really sure what to think of the english buildup on the border:



There are units here, but they are old and obsolete. I can't think of much reason to put Victor in Marina except to help hold captured cities and support troops within Marina's borders, but that's no guarantee of hostile intentions. The fact that I've seen very little of Suboptimal's advanced troops here seems interesting. Also of note, Foggy Dewhurst stopped building a battleship and turned to knocking out campus projects, apparently in pursuit of Albert Einstein. Interesting.

A closer look at the Phoenician army:



Yeah, they've got plenty here. Naval forces too:



I get my units as far out of the way as possible so Kaiser can deliver his alpha strike unimpeded, but I'm pretty sure we're witnessing the beginning of the end for Egypt, and the game. If that's the case, I won't be too terribly sad to see it go.

Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 210:

Woden appears to have accepted our luxury deal, so only Red Wings remains unhappy. Woden has another offer for us we'll get to shortly. Wild is only losing 1.3 loyalty per turn, due to flip in 56 turns. That's recoverable.

International news of note: Ichabod has declared on Kaiser! Woden's forces push forward with little apparent loss:



Significant here, though, is that Kaiser has finally managed to upgrade his Pike and Shot armies to AT crews. Unfortunately for him, AT crews suck, with 70 base strength + 10 against cavalry only bringing them even with Phoenician tanks.

Woden's offer:



Another cryptic message, I assume. I'll take it, but I've no clue what it's supposed to mean.

Penguins has completed it's shipyard, boosting Steam Power. I switch to that tech, due in 5 and simultaneous with Nationalism completing. I had forgotten the impossibility of making the Ironclad and Battleship upgrades simultaneously, because we need that Ironclad upgrade before the era roll in order to boost the all important Steel tech. I'll have to think about how to line up the policy swaps for that. Penguins stars a Frigate, due in 4. Stars will also complete it's frigate in 4, Red Wings in 3. It may be worth trying to get out a second wave of these things, but maybe other military units are a better value because more Battleships can really only protect Stars and the already doomed Penguins. 

Builders throw down lumber mills at both Red Wings and Bruins. Unfortunately, I'll need to use the Bruins builder to chop+mine at Kings, instead of one of the southern builders, which will take too long to get to the spot. one of them will get to the planned Bruins/Wild improvements a little later.

I do have the ability to offer up a Betrayal Emergency:



Some pretty nice bonuses there, but ultimately not worth attempting in this cycle. I do, however, desperately hope that one of these generates if (when) Suboptimal comes after us. that +3 CS, extra movement on raids, and even the production from trade routes would all be really nice in trying to fight off an attack. 

I'll note that if I thought we had a chance, I'd get in on this. Egypt is about to get rekt, and since we really can't hope to pilfer any territory off them, we need them to stay alive to preserve our impossible dreams. However, we have no hope, Egypt getting steamrolled might end the game faster, and us declaring war on Brazil on the off chance of slowing down Kaiser's collapse just seems like a good way to get us smacked from two directions.

Suboptimal has completed the Theater Square in Barry, and starts on an Amphitheater. English units near the border remain ambiguously obsolete. The Egyptian/Brazilian border isn't hot just yet, but there are forces on either side of it ready to engage:



Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Brazil's betrayal really should be the last nail in the coffin for Egypt. Suboptimal is probably regretting peacing out now - do we know if England can pile on in 10 turns? If not, that's good news for Wild, since Isaac falling to the English would probably be the end of Wild, as well.

That said, I really relish seeing Kaiser's empire crumble. His failure to conquer even Bruins off us should have sealed his fate 100 turns ago, so it's nice to see that come to fruition. I was going to ask why are we even bothering to interfere with Phoenica invading Egypt? We've no quarrel with Woden or Ichabod, and the two of them carving Egypt to tiny bits warms the cockles of our heart. Plus, I'd rather see either western power win over England, since suboptimal pulling his shenanigans of "trying to actually put his unique leader ability to use" annoyed me. Also his continued refusal to pursue any sensible victory strategy in lieu of just piling up museums and crossing his fingers that everyone'd rather nuke each other instead of him irritates me, as well.

Anyway, Ichabod has artillery and balloons, which means he should be able to successfully push Steve Newton and Cassius. Kaiser can't dedicate the military strength to drive away the artillery AND also try to hold back the Phoenician invasion at Ed Mercer, so all Ichabod needs to do is be sufficiently aggressive to make gains. I expect Egypt to either split his forces between the two fronts (witness SN's small defensive force), which would be a recipe to lose on both, or to throw his defenders into the more dangerous Phoenician push, which means writing off his southern empire - which would effectively, in turn, mean Kaiser is hoping to play kingmaker and at least deny Woden a victory off his corpse, much as we've been playing more or less all game.

Hopefully things will go quickly now! Betcha didn't know you'd be making a 6 month commitment to a doomed position when you subbed in for me!

[williams482]

I was going to ask why are we even bothering to interfere with Phoenica invading Egypt? We've no quarrel with Woden or Ichabod, and the two of them carving Egypt to tiny bits warms the cockles of our heart. Plus, I'd rather see either western power win over England, since suboptimal pulling his shenanigans of "trying to actually put his unique leader ability to use" annoyed me. Also his continued refusal to pursue any sensible victory strategy in lieu of just piling up museums and crossing his fingers that everyone'd rather nuke each other instead of him irritates me, as well.

We aren't interfering, at least not intentionally. I've been trying not to leave units in strategically relevant places, and those units are only in the area so I can observe the proceedings. We've been a glorified lurker civ for almost 150 turns now, I'm at least going to watch the show! 

Hopefully things will go quickly now! Betcha didn't know you'd be making a 6 month commitment to a doomed position when you subbed in for me!

No, I certainly did not expect to be running things for so long. All in all though, this has been a pleasant experience, and I'm very proud that Canada is somehow still intact. We'll see how much longer that can continue.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I note that Woden has some spare whales. Do we need gold or amenities more right now? Think we could buy 'em off him?

[williams482]

Turn 211:

Coastal flooding has begun:



Apparently flooding has no immediate effect on cities, because neither Pengins nor the two ostensibly vulnerable English cities were damaged. We lost our Holy Site and Hockey Rink (which is somehow coastal lowland despite being a hill tile, ???) and cannot repair them until we get flood barriers up. In our case, we can safely drop that qualifier. Suboptimal has suffered pillaging of the Compo Theater Square, which frustratingly did not affect the great works or their influence on Wild. Stonehenge is also rather wetter than it was before. Here's the climate screen:



Next sea level change is in 9 turns, to climate level III. That will remove more polar ice, and flood Level 2 lowland tiles (we have none, the tundra deer at Oilers is the only one near us). Suboptimal has a few level 2 tiles, all unimproved flatland. Woden will also suffer very minor damages, including the loss of one tile from the newly constructed La Venta National Park. That Ice loss is actually relevant to us, it opens up some of our northern cities to easier conquest by Suboptimal's larger, better navy by denying us potential choke points. Climate level IV will likely be 9-10 turns after that, and will submerge any level 1 tiles, which will permanently destroy any districts or improvements and convert the tiles into coastal water. From googling, I can't tell if cities are immune to this, or if Penguins, Compo, and Nora Batty will be completely destroyed. On the bright side, if that flooding is fatal, that will significantly reduce the loyalty pressure on Wild.

Unfortunately, the loss of that Hockey Rink combined with Stars growing to pop 7 does give us a slight amenity crunch. Wild has been spared this time around, but Stars and more importantly Blues join Red Wings in suffering from an unhappy populace. All told, the costs of our citizen's displeasure amount to 8.7h, 9.3g, 6.3 beakers, and 4.4 culture per turn. Attempting to purchase Whales would clearly be a profitable exercise. It seems like the very unofficial "standard" price for a luxury is 5 gpt, I'll offer 6 because I'm feeling friendly.

Steam power is only about 30 beakers shy of being a 4 turn tech at current rates, so I micro Kings to drop an engineer and the rice farm for two scientists, bumping our beaker rate to 130.2 and dropping the time to Steam Power to 4 turns. If we get that luxury deal I'll probably revert back next turn, at least to get Kings out of this food deficit, But ultimately the completion time of our critical Coal Plant is unaffected and an extra turn gives us more wiggle room for the railroad and Ironclad upgrade.

Kaiser's deployment strategy along the Phoenician front strikes me as curious:



He appears to be daring Woden to attack his capital, while devoting his armies to protecting the much better fortified Kelly Grayson and the district clusters in front of it. He may be hoping for Woden to bite off more than he can chew here, and allow a crushing counterattack from the troops pictured above, plus some additional ranged units further back (including another field canon on the Grayson aqueduct, not visible in either image).



On the Brazilian front, Ichabod seems content to sit back and blast away at Kaiser's encampment, while Kaiser has thrown together a competent but unimpressive defensive force to oppose him. an out-and-out bullrush by Brazil here would be costly, and time is pretty much irrelevant, so I can't fault him for waiting to disable the encampment range strikes and ZoC with essentially zero risk first.



Our wandering warrior finally stumbles upon the bustling metropolis of Rio De Janeiro, crown jewel of Brazil.

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

it'll be amusing if you can't build another hockey rink at Penguins since it "already has one." I don't expect that to happen, but in this game who can know these things?

Ichabod I think is playing smart. He's in no rush and in fact, time is on his side - he's making progress and can afford to methodically shell his way to Steve Newton, because Kaiser will eventually need to draw those troops north to stall Woden, opening the way for Brazil. Woden might regroup and heal up his tanks, then I'd expect a strike south first at the Egyptian field army, and only then go for the capital - at least, that's how I'd do it. Beat the army first and then the cities fall into your lap, going for cities first risks losing your army and gaining nothing. The odds against Kaiser have risen up to nearly 4 to 1 against, and if suboptimal piles on in 7 turns or so it'll be 6 to 1 - Egypt will be carved up for certain.

I think sub should do either that or refuse alliance with us and try to eat us while Kaiser holds off Woden. Maybe we should offer him a renewed alliance when we can, if that settles his mind?

Of course, knowing sub, he'll do neither, and will instead build the Statue of Liberty or something.

[williams482]

I expect either a denouncement or a new DoF as soon as our alliance with England expires. If I get neither, I send the DoF myself, and if that's rejected (still without a denouncement) I'll have to assume a Golden Age wardec is coming once the Era rolls.

Unfortunately we lose Wild no matter who suboptimal choses to attack, unless he picks option C and goes after neither us nor Egypt. Which as you say is possible.

Sounds like you approve of Kaiser's deployment strategy, more or less? Move the armies behind the two frontline cities, let Woden come to you, and hope your walls can hold up well enough against an initial onslaught while planning to counterattack against any troops your opponent commits forward? The weakness is that Woden will be able to do exactly what Ichabod is doing and bombard the walls from afar, but I suppose that doesn't hurt Kaiser all that much because his ranged forces are mostly planes (which I don't believe are vulnerable to ground based counterattacks anyway) plus one or two artillery armies. The longer Woden takes to batter down defenses, the more troops Kaiser can build, and if Woden gets impatient or sees an opening that isn't there, Kaiser might be able to deal enough damage to force a real stalemate.