Xist's closest city to me is 19 pop. Hnngn it's so juicy. But I don't want to disrupt the other 4 players being in a 3v1. And he does have a perfectly large and mobile army, I am not strong enough for it yet.
Technically I'm also in the alliance (and I am supporting the Kuriotates with some trades) but the travel distance, given that Undead cannot be hasted, is prohibitive, as well as the lack of culture vision and (less so now) the qualitative inferiority of my forces, compared to the Lanun.
I think I want to keep the alliance from seeing me as a rising Lanun-tier threat by playing nice. But I can't boast about my navy too much or the Lanun will be able to prepare against it. So I can't actually do anything useful for the alliance in the short term other than continuing my promise not to backstab them.
Materially, Sacrifice the Weak, Planar Gates, and Moebius Witches, and the war the other 4 players are in puts me in a perfectly solid position moving forward.
But the diplomatic situation is more complicated.
Let's think about the other four player's strategic goals:
Lanun:
They want to leverage their map space, tech and general scale advantage such that they can kill off one of the allies, then another, then another....
Their progress seems to've stalled, but they already damaged all three of their neighbours. So they can grow a lot in the vast space they're already marked out for themselves, until they are an entire tier of units ahead of whoever they choose as the target.
As for who the Lanun want to target:
My Sheaim:
It seems they can't do this as I don't have a land border and we only have a secondary sea border. They would have to make a fleet on their secondary coastline, distracting from the land 3v1, to attack the only player not currently deploying forces against them. Maybe I should forward-position a ship to see a transport fleet coming though.... after all galley transport is what, 4? And the Lanun could cram a lot of quality strength units into 4 galleys....
Even though he's already in a 3v1 with other players, I would be the most important target to hurt, would I not?
Xist's elves:
If they try to kill Xist, I will either defend Xist, or perhaps what's worse for them, I will help kill Xist off which would make me a peer competitor. So this would involve them attacking the two strongest rivals together, but with the strongest rival (me) actually benefiting from Xist's death.
Coldrain's Sidar:
Coldrain already lost his coastal town on this front, and doesn't have a direct land border until the Kuriotates die.
So by process of elimination, that's why the Lanun attacked the Kuriotates. The Kuriotates are now defended by the Sidar. I don't want to backstab Coldrain because:
- It would hand over the Kuriotates to the Lanun pretty quickly
- It would be moderately difficult
- I don't really need to conquer anyone yet
- My cities next to the Sidar are low value which lessens the threat the Sidar pose on a permanent basis (they have only a weak incentive to ever attack me, and I could even tolerate ceding that region to them)
So, maybe the Lanun will conquer the Kuriotates, deterring or defeating the Sidar force as well, just as soon as they amass whatever new military tech they're after. This wouldn't benefit me as I wouldn't get any real land off the Kuriotates... maybe an island settlement... maybe regardless of whether I saw south-west or south-east, I should really make a bunch of transports? Unhasted Undead are slow.
Xist:
He's already lost the towns close to the Lanun. Maybe it'd actually be in his best interest to attack me instead? Especially since he's my best war target in an immediate sense (ie not considering knock-on effects on other players)?
But for now maybe his tactic is to regain some ground from the Lanun, let the Kuriotates take the heat, just play safe. He's pretty strong at no.3 but being in between the two strongest players requires some caution.
Coldrain's Sidar:
His best goal would be to conquer the Kuriotate region. Like, let the Lanun kill the Kuriotates, then seize the region once Xist (or even me) distract Lanun forces elsewhere.
Kuriotates:
It's like Coldrain's goal, but he's the one that's right next to the Lanun. Oof. So he just has to survive and hope the Lanun attack someone else (but I don't expect them to)
Technically I'm also in the alliance (and I am supporting the Kuriotates with some trades) but the travel distance, given that Undead cannot be hasted, is prohibitive, as well as the lack of culture vision and (less so now) the qualitative inferiority of my forces, compared to the Lanun.
I think I want to keep the alliance from seeing me as a rising Lanun-tier threat by playing nice. But I can't boast about my navy too much or the Lanun will be able to prepare against it. So I can't actually do anything useful for the alliance in the short term other than continuing my promise not to backstab them.
Materially, Sacrifice the Weak, Planar Gates, and Moebius Witches, and the war the other 4 players are in puts me in a perfectly solid position moving forward.
But the diplomatic situation is more complicated.
Let's think about the other four player's strategic goals:
Lanun:
They want to leverage their map space, tech and general scale advantage such that they can kill off one of the allies, then another, then another....
Their progress seems to've stalled, but they already damaged all three of their neighbours. So they can grow a lot in the vast space they're already marked out for themselves, until they are an entire tier of units ahead of whoever they choose as the target.
As for who the Lanun want to target:
My Sheaim:
It seems they can't do this as I don't have a land border and we only have a secondary sea border. They would have to make a fleet on their secondary coastline, distracting from the land 3v1, to attack the only player not currently deploying forces against them. Maybe I should forward-position a ship to see a transport fleet coming though.... after all galley transport is what, 4? And the Lanun could cram a lot of quality strength units into 4 galleys....
Even though he's already in a 3v1 with other players, I would be the most important target to hurt, would I not?
Xist's elves:
If they try to kill Xist, I will either defend Xist, or perhaps what's worse for them, I will help kill Xist off which would make me a peer competitor. So this would involve them attacking the two strongest rivals together, but with the strongest rival (me) actually benefiting from Xist's death.
Coldrain's Sidar:
Coldrain already lost his coastal town on this front, and doesn't have a direct land border until the Kuriotates die.
So by process of elimination, that's why the Lanun attacked the Kuriotates. The Kuriotates are now defended by the Sidar. I don't want to backstab Coldrain because:
- It would hand over the Kuriotates to the Lanun pretty quickly
- It would be moderately difficult
- I don't really need to conquer anyone yet
- My cities next to the Sidar are low value which lessens the threat the Sidar pose on a permanent basis (they have only a weak incentive to ever attack me, and I could even tolerate ceding that region to them)
So, maybe the Lanun will conquer the Kuriotates, deterring or defeating the Sidar force as well, just as soon as they amass whatever new military tech they're after. This wouldn't benefit me as I wouldn't get any real land off the Kuriotates... maybe an island settlement... maybe regardless of whether I saw south-west or south-east, I should really make a bunch of transports? Unhasted Undead are slow.
Xist:
He's already lost the towns close to the Lanun. Maybe it'd actually be in his best interest to attack me instead? Especially since he's my best war target in an immediate sense (ie not considering knock-on effects on other players)?
But for now maybe his tactic is to regain some ground from the Lanun, let the Kuriotates take the heat, just play safe. He's pretty strong at no.3 but being in between the two strongest players requires some caution.
Coldrain's Sidar:
His best goal would be to conquer the Kuriotate region. Like, let the Lanun kill the Kuriotates, then seize the region once Xist (or even me) distract Lanun forces elsewhere.
Kuriotates:
It's like Coldrain's goal, but he's the one that's right next to the Lanun. Oof. So he just has to survive and hope the Lanun attack someone else (but I don't expect them to)
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