[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Coeurva]

With Sicil producing ~30gpt after the forge completes eot, hopefully it won't be necessary to rely on the capture gold (135 gpt, -216 gpt at 0%/100% sci; should take 2t to Feudalism at full research, thanks to residual beakers at 0%). We'll need a few spare coins for unit supply, though -- they can also come from wealth builds (Styx), but perhaps they need not. We'll see.

Incidentally, we've got Confucianism in Dragonish Sicil. Maybe we can grab Mono during the GA and revolt to OrgRel? Could prove useful in building/whipping courthouses later (we'll have to be in Caste to produce two GScis during the GA, so I think we should grab CoL before we fire it). High upkeep is a concern, but cothons should at least equalize.

[Bacchus]

Krill added a sword and an axe in Mandrake.

[Coeurva]

That sword kills our chances (if it was a fifth C3 Shock axe, we'd actually still have >90% odds to take the city ; as it stands, 30%). We'll return with xbows. Southern approach.

What if Foxglove is similarly defended? Try to sign peace and take Chehalis, then prepare for war with Savant? If Krill doesn't want to sign peace, he'll have fun running into longbows and triple-promoted elephants, I hope. Trouble is that Gavagai doesn't bind his forces presently.

dtay whipped about 20 pop.

[Bacchus]

We can stay at war with Krill, it doesn't really matter, you are building Triremes anyway, and his front is just much more awkward and exposed than ours, every turn at war is to his detriment. Actually, I think that we've already somehow done considerable damage, just from his investment in counter-measures. Long-term, maybe he gets to keep Mandrake, which is annoying for us, but the game may well be close to over by the time it starts to matter.

To avoid wasting time, we can put the Sentry on Hebona, and do some advance scouting, so that we don't move a fleet to place where it has no reason to go.

We can also redirect the fleet back through the canal to strike at Yuri's islands, and deny Dtay coastal holdings. I think I prefer cleaning up Savant's cities though, and we are close enough to Feudalism that we can afford this war, I think. To be sure it's a little risky, but I think in our position there are no riskless plays that can yield victory.

[Coeurva]

T129

Southern approach doesn't actually help us, because it's not faster; it actually even prevents us from landing on T132 unless we forgo triremes. We're going with Plan A after all (gather forces on clams). In fact, I want to make peace with Krill here, but only if you agree, and redirect our army against Chehalis (a useful canal), preparing for Regna, because Joey has declared war on Savant and I think we should jump in after our Golden Age, unless this is a sham declaration.

We could return to this sea with galleons full of xbows while Gavagai isn't otherwise occupied. Right now, Krill has the same power as Mongolia; I don't think we're making much progress here. Forcing him to whip several axes, swords and Classical ships was a reward in itself, since it allows us to threaten him again in ~15t. Edit: Crossbowst.

I don't see us achieving our objective in this war. Nor will Krill take our cities with Feudalism due eoT131 and 10t of enforced peace. We still have the option to press on to Foxglove according to the plan, but I think offering peace now or next turn would be best. At least we can take Chehalis without Krill spotting any of our army or fleet, and we can also steer five workers there to improve it at once.

dtay now has 447,000 soldiers (us: 389,000).

Seems we mostly agree on our situation, though. For what it's worth, Chehalis is a safe bet, we'll always capture that city after slamming a CR2 cat into it. I haven't sent peace to Krill yet, but we can strike there regardless.

EDIT: If we can make peace with Krill by eoT130, we could land on the gforh west of Regna on T133 (with some injured units). Otherwise, we'll need to keep the units at Chehalis, and aim to attack Savant as our Golden Age ends.

[Bacchus]

Krill hasn't really done anything that we didn't expect him too, so the calculus is still the same as when you decided to launch the attack. If we peace now, we probably won't have an opening again -- he has more production on this sea, and will have xbows/lbows of his own. Savant, OTOH, is not going anywhere.

Maybe we don't even have an opening now, but I would poke at Foxglove just to check.

[Coeurva]

Joey declaring on Savant is the unexpected development here. Since it's become apparent to him that our war against Krill won't end immediately, he probably sees an opening for himself to seize Regna.

Despite appearances, we haven't committed to any attack yet -- what's on the board is just the most flexible draw-up of our army up to this point. Only now do we have to make the actual decision: Foxglove or Chehalis. If those swords weren't going to attack Mandrake/Foxglove, then they would have been shipped to Chehalis anyway, which is the best city site remaining that we can obtain outside of war (barbs don't count), and connects our southern and eastern harbours (I'd also like to fort the jungle 23 of Westward, though).

To look at Foxglove now means commitment in two ways: first, Krill becomes aware that he was right about him being the target, and becomes aware of what we can throw at him rather than having to guess at the dark (and the power graph); second, we broadcast our fleet's position to Krill for at least 3t. If he can get four units into Mandrake within 3t, he can likely get four triremes into the area as well, which could become very dangerous (he might trap our army on Foxglove Isle even if we capture the city).

Simply put, I have to admit the plan wasn't as resilient to Krill sniffing it out as I had thought. Or rather, I didn't expect him to declare war on us early with Gavagai as a potential threat (I don't think it's coincidence that Krill declared right after -- and only after -- Gavagai's target became apparent) and thus expected far less of a window for him to prepare. But so far, we haven't lost anything by preparing for war against Krill, because the same steps would have been necessary for the back-up plan (Chehalis). Although it's fair to subtract the fresh chariot and the two triremes. Sunk costs, though.

Gavagai's progress against Mongolia and dtay's rapid build-up are becoming threatening as well. We're already behind. If it turns out we can't take and hold Foxglove, we'll have to wait until at least T136 to take Chehalis instead, and will have to steer the fleet back through hostile seas, because no way is Krill making peace once we show the fleet -- whether we take Foxglove (in which case he'll try to retaliate) or not (in which case he'll smell blood and try to pursue).

[Bacchus]

Yeah, you are right about the potential threat of exchanging Savant for GJ as a neighbour in the bay, after which we would start looking very much like a tasty snack to a combination of Dtay and GJ.

Let's see if Krill takes peace then, and even if he doesn't, Savant's cities make for a decent use of troops.

[Bacchus]

We fear for our safety! We demand military protection!

[Coeurva]

Yeah I had to move out the Medic axe, which I originally wanted to load onto the convoy (now it'll get ferried into Chehalis via Hebona after capture), and now I think we should reinforce Z-Spire sooner rather than later; but Vermin pushes enough unusable overflow through the queue as it is, we'll be fine. Civ4 citizens are the opposite of not-in-my-backyard voters; place the nuclear plant next to the library and nobody complains, but screw around with their 50ft axe-wielding stud with considerable first-aid skills in what I can only assume is their local copy of the Naked Cowboy, and it's a riot. Actually, I think I can understand the argument here.

The password seems to have been changed, I can't log in anymore. Maybe it will be fixed in the evening.

Joey took a city from Savant, but from the pop subtracted I think it wasn't Regna...