Alright I've been putting this off in favour of just getting on with everybody, but if I haven't killed/crippled one of my neighbours in the first hundred turns then I am playing the wrong civilization. Continuing without having decided is a bad idea. Down that road lies the madness of mercy, the craziness of clemency and the lunancy of leniency. Also the thesaurus of alliteration.
So. I've got to pick now, or at least soon. Two contestants. One will be spared and hopefully befriended. The other will be ruthlessly executed by a trio of mace wielding ice thugs and their translucent minions. There are a number of factors that contribute to this choice. Long term and short term. Then there is the whole issue of diplomacy and friendship. Feh.
Short term factors determine whether my fanatic friends will fight to a flawless victory. My little winter priests are my *only* source of units with medic promotions. Medic units don't just help the stack heal faster, they also cure the variety of crippling illnesses that my units can be inflicted with. This means priests never go out of fashion, and losing any of them will have long term military repercussions.
Fortunately for me these two civs should be relatively susceptible to my wintry charmers. As I've discussed earlier the Hippus or Khazad could *really* put a crimp in my fiendish plan. But just because there aren't serious roadblocks doesn't mean there are no roadblocks.
The Kuriotates have the world spell legends. This isn't too powerful as worldspells go. It adds 450 culture to all cities. Great for a landgrab, and to culturally secure borders for a long time. Of course the other thing it does is stand up a decent cultural defence for a city. That would certainly make things more difficult.
The Svartalfar on the other hand are elves. This is more than just fluff. Every svartalfar unit gains the elf promotion, which allows double movement through forested squares and gives bonuses to forest combat. Nasty.
On the other hand the Svartalfar early game is normally dominated by scouts. They have an offensive bonus which makes them as good on the attack as warriors but twice as fast. When I play the elves I never build a single warrior all game. The thing is my minions and their ice elemental bodyguards will be too powerful to usefully attack. And scouts are awful on the defence. If Sareln makes the standard Svartalfar play he will be slightly easier to attack. However it will also heavily lessen the impact of my slow spell which can be a major factor in avoiding casualties among the priests.
Long term factors determine how much of a threat the civilizations will be to me later. How well they can handle my tricks and how likely they are to play nice, trapped in the shadow of the lord of ice. Frankly though both sides vex me greatly. The tricks they have work well against some of my key advantages, or emphazise my disadvantages. Let's start with Kuriotates.
From the very early map analysis I'd say the Kuriotates are in the far west of the continent. I've had no word that they've found anyone west of them, whereas I hear reports of dwarves beyond the elves. For most factions this would put a lot of pressure on our relationship if I controlled the land to their east and there were no other choices. The dragon cultists are a little different though. They only need a little land for economic reasons. The rest is all for tactical control and resources, which seems a lot easier to deal with diplomatically.
On the other hand the fact that they don't need the land neatly pulls the teeth from my greatest deterrent against invasion. Most foes would be loath to invade a foe sitting on endless worthless ice fields. The Kuriotates though couldn't give a hoot. The ice fields are just going to be used by insignificant colonies.
On the plus side though, there won't be the same border tensions. Most races would hate to have my cities on their borders due to the encroaching ice. Kuriotates wouldn't care. I hate having borders with most civs since the Illians find it impossible to win a real cultural border war due to lack of religion. I think even the Illians can beat a colony.
The Svarts pose a different problem. It can be summed up in the word "Raiders". I'm planning on running an economy based off cottages and that is bait to a raider civ. The ice fields mean they won't want the land, so will have no qualms wrecking it. The ice fields also mean that it takes me substantially longer to replace pillaged improvements. The raiders trait is horrific. Of course the Kuriotates can pull the same tricks via the adaptive trait, but since they could also just conquer my land they have less reason to do so.
Both civilizations are fast fast fast. Centaurs are the backbone of the Kuriotates and are movement 3 with the potential to cast sprint for bonus movement. The Svartalfar are only movement 2 but the commando trait makes up for some of that. Either way the slow spell is made a lot worse. All the more reason to get to blinding light and charm person quickly.
Controlling Frigus is a long term priority, and that sits in the direction of the Svartalfar. I'm going to need to settle in that direction and it might be possible to keep the enemy capital if I attack in that direction.
Diplomatic concerns are the final factor. We're still in the nascent stages of the game and neither side has really given me more than a glimmer of how future relations will turn out. However at the moment Pocketbeetle is the clear winner diplomatically. He's talked more, been slightly friendlier and seems to have some tensions with Sareln meaning he may be easier to bring on side. Also, and I do consider this fairly important, PB didn't break my fricking Frigus bonus to escape a lion
Alliances can have some real impacts on this game despite the lack of tech trading and the inability to gift units. Being a magical mercenary is a real possibility as a number of spells can be cast on allied units(or lands). Trading mana nodes adds a new dimension to resource trading. There are also wonders that can be moved from city to city. Priests can build temples of their religions. I think the potential is there for a meaningful alliance of give and take even in a non-tech trading game.
At the moment my inclination is to invade Sareln. But I'll do some more thinking. Still got some time to decide in. Once I have decided though I'll have a really clear short term diplomatic and military goal.
[I'll probably come along with some semi relevant pictures later to break up this wall of text]