[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[Ceiliazul]

Provisionally, we can speed Bronze Working by one turn, by working the fresh water for one turn prior to the Deer being improved
...
GingerEagle isn't remotely challenging us to Stonehenge

I did work the deer this turn, putting the warrior at 5/10 and in range of finishing any turn we need it. Next turn I'll likely work the 2/0/2 to speed BW. It looks likely that the worker will be perfectly timed to start a chop.

Don't count out GE yet. Going forward, we'll have to watch his tech closely.

Warrior Ogg is moving toward Comm's border, and will reach the mountain pass in 3t.

No score changes or techs this turn.

[Ceiliazul]

Ceil gives up!

...on demo analysis. On this map, by design or by accident, pop points and techs count for 6 points each. The number of guesses will compound too quickly for efficient analysis.

It doesn't take rocket science to know that Commodore got Bronze Working. Our GNP went up without any tile changes, and his power was +8k. He doesn't have a worker though, so I'm not too worried about his progress. Meanwhile, I'll have the deer camped next turn, jacking up my crop yield.

Ogg continues scouting. He'll follow the yellow line to kill the last bit of fog in my immediate area, then likely sentry near the Comm choke. The next warrior will likely go to meet GE and then find a suitable spot to camp out as well.

[timski]

Ceil gives up! ...on demo analysis.

Well, I haven't given up . For now you can see growth clearly on the top 5 city screen. Subsequently it should just require pattern-based analysis to split techs from population growth. Only later will it become too complex to be useful.

Clarification: While you may see guesses as stacking on guesses, making the outcome highly unreliable, the opposite is just as true: As the turns pass, we get opportunities to confirm or deny earlier uncertainties. For example, there is now no doubt that Commodore teched Mining-Bronze Working. That resolves any remaining turn 5 doubt, when I noted that Dazed and Commodore were somewhat interchangeable.

So please keep on posting power data (min, max, average) alongside score changes, even if it doesn't look very interesting. Changes may not always be read on the turn in question, but do feed into a rounded picture over a few turns. The best example was the turn 8-9-10 data, where we see Dazed briefly jump into the power lead, and derive several previously unknowns from that. GNP, hammers and food are potentially interesting if done turn-by-turn, allowing us to confirm builds and tech rates with greater reliability. However we haven't taken analysis that far yet, and it is perhaps less important than techs from power/score. Ultimately I'll work with whatever you wish to provide. I don't want to turn into an accountant, distracting you from actually playing the game .

Thoughts:

• Commodore should have a Worker out very soon: It only took them 3 turns to go from population 2 to 3, and we haven't seen growth in the 4 turns since. My best guess is they will revolt this turn, whip an almost complete Worker into something - another Worker, Settler? They lack land techs (only roads, mines and chops), so a second Worker would imply early chops.
  
• Dazed probably teched Fishing. They can't do much else in 4 turns while growing to size 2. Lack of power changes would firm that up.
  
• Kyan is mighty quiet, so I expect them to reach Bronze Working soon. If they have met Commodore, they should also have a GNP bonus. Whether that can be seen from the demos with so much going on is another question.
  
• GingerEagle looks to be heading for a second-tier tech. If they took Mining second (see below), they'll be another candidate for Bronze Working. They likely have a Worker out by now, but will they grow next, or continue pumping out Workers/Settlers?

Added: I would love to know what Kyan and Dazed have been building while growing. I'm fairly sure both already have a Worker and Warrior complete, but both would have had 3 or 4 turns of building something while growing to size 2 this turn. With their options limited by tech, both may have built or part-built further Warriors, which is why the power data becomes so interesting.

Oh. And now I notice that GingerEagle started with Hunting, so almost certainly teched Mining second. Either that or completed a Warrior in 4 turns while not growing (alongside a non-soldier point tech like Mysticism), which makes no sense, given the priority GingerEagle has given food (Fish and likely early Agriculture). Their tech rate certainly is fast - if GingerEagle is heading for Bronze Working, they may have it either the same turn we do, or just before, having squeezed in Agriculture instead of our cheaper Hunting. What's still bugging me is that I can't entirely dismiss the possibility that they opened with Mysticism: It's just so illogical at the outset, even if one is planning to chop out the 'Henge, because the tech spends the first 10 turns after it is researched doing nothing, while inverting the order (say Mining-Bronze-Mysticism) at least gains some flexibility in the meantime.

So, let's assume GingerEagle techs Agriculture-Mining-Bronze Working, revolts to Slavery, and then techs Mysticism. The earliest they can do that is, I think end of turn 19, even with their rapid research. If they whip overflow a Worker into the 'Henge, they'd be at least 1 turn behind us on our original micro plan. I don't see how they could claw that turn back: They presumably teched Agriculture first to build a Farm, which takes slightly longer than a Camp, so even a strong farmed tile won't be significantly better than our Deer in the short term. They've no time to build more than 2 Workers, so can't chop any faster than us.

[Ceiliazul]

Bronze!

Well, I haven't given up . For now you can see growth clearly on the top 5 city screen. Subsequently it should just require pattern-based analysis to split techs from population growth. Only later will it become too complex to be useful.

Well Timski, I appreciate it greatly! Current city sizes:

Ginger Eagle: size 3 on t14
Commodore: whipped to size 2 on t14 (likely 1st worker)
Kyan/Dazed: size 2



Commodore got bronze on t13 (he landed it t12, but I saw it t13), as previously discussed. there was a similar 8k boost on t15, I suspect Kyan got bronze as well.

My warrior has completed scouting my land, and will go get visibility on Commodore's capital soon. There is a hill blocking his vision on my approach, yay for me! The warrior will then go further south to hopefully meet someone else.

Bronze is helpfully and predictably located in a great spot for 2nd city. I'm a strong proponent of getting max fertility from a 2nd city, the spot outlined in red would be simply insane for a long time.

[timski]

More border Beaver... I'm sure there's some sort of joke in there. Very useful to be able to see Commodore's Copper. We should not only know precisely when they have the option of starting Axes, but we'll see whether hooking up the Copper is the first priority for Commodore's Worker.

C&D:

• GingerEagle - Completed Warrior turn 14, just as they reached population 3. Uncannily similar to us, but a turn ahead. SInce that's their first Warrior, I very much doubt it will travel far from their capital. Likely heading to Bronze Working now, but not before turn 16 - critically at least a turn behind us, and that's before any anarchy!
  
• Commodore - Likely whipped a Worker turn 14. Nothing more to say.
  
• Kyan and Dazed - Increasingly hard to split these 2. Kyan teched Bronze Working turn 15. Either (a) Dazed teched Mining on turn 13, and one of Kyan or Dazed also built a Warrior, OR (b) Kyan and Dazed both completed Warriors that turn, and Dazed teched Fishing. Dazed already has the Wheel (the only possible 4,0000-point tech) and didn't have enough time for high-Beaker techs. Since both grew to size 2 on turn 13, both building Warriors would not be unexpected. Should become clearer when we see if Dazed continues to grow (while building a Work Boat).

For later: Worth noting that the population demos are uneven (a 2 population city gives more than double a 1 population city), so it should be possible to track later cities by watching those numbers carefully. It may be easier for you just to post a screenshot of the demos each time (spoiler-ed, since none but me are interested).

Settlement

Red circle site is clearly strong. While the capital border expansion means we can hook up the Copper without settling here immediately, something in this area is a pretty solid site regardless: It somewhat blocks Commodore, and has decent food, commerce and hammer potential. However the Spices are redundant early, and the Cow can be more-or-less swapped for Rice by moving 1W.

There are a couple of issues in that decision, beyond pure food yield:

1. How do you intend to settle in the north-west? Only the plains hill inland site would use the second Rice. That site is defensible and has a few very good tiles, but wastes half of all its tiles with mountains and desert. Gut feeling is that settling up near the coast is more viable, but that would orphan the second Rice, unless the red circle site is planted 1W.

2. What's your general strategy on overlaps? I'm very relaxed about sharing tiles, which is probably why I'm inclinded towards a move 1W.

I'd also add that 1W will allow us to potentially (depending on techs and Worker micro) have the second Rice worked immediately, since the tile will be in our capital's borders on about turn 25, a good few turns before our first settler. Of course with flooplains in the first ring, that's less critical, although it is nice to be able to start a second city off on an improved tile.

Tech

What's the plan? Fairly sure we need a land improvement tech next, or else our Workers will be limited to Mining. Inclination is the Wheel next: Strategically we'll need at least 1 road to get the Copper hooked up (you never know when Axes might be needed in a hurry), plus the same road link should get the first Settler in place a turn earlier.

After that, are we going for an early religion, and if so, do we want it in the second city? My inclination is maybe and yes. Early religion is certainly powerful long-term, but doesn't do much immediately, since we won't need the happy, and can't expect it to spread until all have opposite-side ports and Sailing.

Animal Husbandry won't be needed until after turn 40, since Cows will be in the second ring of the second city. It's marginal use for city planning, but with Spears and Axes available, horses don't seem like a top priority. Archery is probably more of a military priority on this map. And then there's a fairly urgent need for economy techs - not least Agriculture and Pottery. Thoughts?

Any sim available? We're close to the point at which trying things out would be useful.

[timski]

First stab at the dot-map, to illustrate the issues I'm talking about:



City A is my variation on your red site.

City B is a borderline aggressive, but grabs 3 foods tiles with border expansion, plus beaver, and makes locating City C much easier (based on what we know of the north-east). Both cities could move 2E without disaster - B2 and C2 - indeed, moving B2 is more defensible and quicker to grow, so may be a better option anyway. But neither can grab the second Rice without ceasing to be coastal.

City D1 and D2 both have advantages. D1 is stronger militarily, and grabs Beaver. D2 is probably a better commerce city and doesn't share the Cows with city A.

Added further thoughts:

• The dot-map outlined has just enough room for a tiny filler city 1W (or better, 1N?) of the second Rice, if your red site is used instead of A.
  
• However, the red site prevents D1 from being settled, so denies us an obvious border stronghold against Commodore. Tnis is perhaps the most important decision - do we need a strong border site in the south-east?
  
• The B/C flexibility can be retained until we settle up there. Especially if there is extra seafood in the fog east of C, or GingerEagle settles too close to the north-west Beaver.
  
• Are the desert tiles south of the SE Beaver flood plains? If so, I can see Commodore planting their second city here, on the hill, with floodplains and Copper and one mountain overlooking us. That nerfs D1 as a site.
  
• C2 will have serious production problems. Mid-term, it would be a decent Moai site, but getting that built without a single hill tile will be challenging.

Finally, if all starts have Copper in a similar spot, we can time the first appearance of Axes based on the border expansion: Everyone's capital will reach the Copper on about turn 25. Copper connected a few turns later, the first Axes a few after that. So turn 30 is about as early as we'd need to complete Archery, even with aggressive neighbours. At least assuming no very early settlers.

[timski]

You'll like this . I simmed a little with the earlier Bronze Working:

It appears that we can now complete the Stonehenge End of Turn 22 (a turn earlier than originally planned) by switching to working Fish, Deer and 3-hammers as soon as the capital regrows to size 3. The only downside is that our capital won't grow to size 4 before the next build, but the first Settler would still only take 6 turns to build (net one turn quicker than a Settler at size 4, due to a quirk in the overflow), so EOT22 'Henge looks like the best option.

I've also added a Worker micro to get Copper connected, and the second city founded on turn 30. That can probably be improved a little, but seems to reflect our priorities. I've prioritised the Copper slightly for strategic defense. Regardless of whether the second city is at the red city or my A (I'm still undecided, for what it's worth), the second city can open by working the Copper, which would get a third Worker out in 6 turns, or an Axe in 4.

Please check this against the live game, because I may have misread your reports. This is balanced down to the last hammer, so any error in my sim setup would be fatal. Judging by progress bar on your last screenshot, you are actually a hammer ahead of my sim, so there shouldn't be any problem. I have also assumed the Wheel is teched next. After that, there is some tech flexibility, since Workers are roading and mining till at least turn 24.

If we're heading for a religion in the second city, we can comfortably fit in one tech between the Wheel and Meditation/Polytheism, and likely get the religion to found within a turn or so of settling, which would give the second city a near-instant border expansion. If we wanted to work the cows quickly, then Animal Husbandry could be the intermediate tech, although something like Archery or Agriculture might be more flexible. Pottery less important at this stage, unless we wanted to open with a Granary in the second city - but given Worker shortages and lack of land techs, and consequently rather limited early slavings, Pottery feels suboptimal as the intermediate tech. If we miss the first religion (Dazed is an obvious competitor, for whom we would have no warning), we should have just enough time to try for the other one and still found it in the second city, if we wanted.

'Henge/Copper/Second Settler Micro (notes below)

T16: Bronze Working completes. Tech the Wheel. Worker chops forest 2E of capital. Working Deer, Fish and Rice.
T18: Revolt to Slavery. Slave Worker (1). Now working only Fish and Deer. First Worker chop completes.
T19: Worker completes, overflow into Stonehenge. First Worker moves to 1NE of capital. Second Worker moves 2N.
T20: First Worker chops forest 1NE of capital. Second Worker chops forest 2N of capital.
T21: The Wheel completes. Tech something... Growth to size 3. Working Fish, Deer and Forest Plains Hill.
T22: Both final chops complete.
T23: Stonehenge completes (2). Start Settler. Second Worker moves 1SE (1NE of capital) and roads. First Worker moves 1E (ENE of capital) and roads (3).
T24: Capital's borders expand. Roads complete.
T25: Both Workers move to the Copper and mine it (4).
T26: Copper connected. First Worker available. If settling your red circle site, the first Worker move 1SE and road the forested tile.
T27: Second Worker available. Probably heading to mine the capital's Silver, maybe farm its Rice?
T29: Settler completes. Capital can potentially produce an Axe (or Archer), whipped into another Settler the following turn.
T30: Second city founded (5).

Notes:
1. Must be slaved with 1 turn till completion. Note that although it is possible to whip the Worker 2 turns before completion, this won't allow a EOT22 'Henge - only whipping the Worker on the final turn balances out the overflows correctly.
2. Stonehenge complete with 1 hammer overflow - that's how tight this is!
3. If you prefer diagonal road, and plan to settle the red circle city site, the second Worker can move 1SE and road 2E of the capital.
4. Order the Workers separately, since the Mine is only a 3 turn build
5. The red circle site requires a third road improvement to settle on this turn.

[timski]

Dot-Map Revised

• I'm over-valuing Beaver happiness. We won't need it anytime soon: 6 happy cap with Char'henge, 7 with Silver mined, 8 with Iron Working (Gems), 10 with Forges, 12 with Calendar, plus religion... and there's still a good chance of picking Beaver up later with cultural expansion.
  
• It is optimistic to expect the D1 site to remain untouched long enough for us to settle there. It isn't a priority for us economically, but with Flood Plains, that border area will be attractive to Commodore.
  
• City B2 is a fundamentally less aggressive plant against GingerEagle, who we're trying to "keep sweet" in the early game.
  
• Cities at B2 and Red Circle are tactically very defensible: With roads, one stack of single-movers can cover both cities.

Hence:



I'm assuming Red's borders will expand quickly with a religion, and hence we'd seal the south-east border fairly quickly.

The 5th city likely wouldn't be the Filler, but something further east.

The "Defensive Stack" location isn't a city, just a staging point for single-movers, allowing either Red or B2 to be reinforced in one turn (with roads). The stack would be 2 turns from the capital and C2, but neither can be attacked at short notice.

The remaining downside is that City C2 will have almost no hammers. 10 sea tiles and no mines means it has to be a Moai site - albeit somehow built with 2 chops and some slavery - since any other positioning would orphan one of the resources up there. Added: That's not strictly true. C2 could go 1NW, with an additional city between Red and C2 to work the Sugar - but that only grants C2 a single hill, and reduces it to 2 food resources.


(Sorry for posting way so much without letting you get a word in. If you're in a hurry, only my previous post, with the revised 'Henge micro needs reading anytime soon.)

[Ceiliazul]

(Sorry for posting way so much without letting you get a word in. If you're in a hurry, only my previous post, with the revised 'Henge micro needs reading anytime soon.)

I've had a medical event in the family, culminating in an out of town trip this weekend. I'll give your work the time it deserves and read everything, but it looks really good so far!

[Ceiliazul]

Demo Analysis reborn!

Inspired by Timski undauntable* efforts, I have reentered the demo analysis arena. The last turn saw a decrease in rival max: someone lost a warrior.





Commodore is the 21k Rival Max on t16 (thank you graphs!) and didn't lose his power until after the turn rollover. (known because graphs don't show it yet) This implies he lost his warrior on defense, and if my power analysis is right, he only has one remaining. The one remaining warrior is all the way at his Northern border... far out of position if he's being attacked!

If I'm right about the power graph, Commodore only ever had 2 warriors. If I'm right about the demo analysis, that leaves 9 warriors for the other 3 rivals. It is totally possible that Commodore has 3 warriors entering his land from the South!

Defend well Commodore! Not only because an early death is bad for me, but because getting warrior rushed is the ultimate insult! The following picture was snapped on t16, showing our warrior stare-down. I was shocked he didn't move his warrior 1W to the forest-hill. Responding to an attack from the South is the only reason I can think of for failing to deny my warrior the high ground.





Note, I'm not entirely sure if undauntable is a word. If it isn't, I claim this word for SPAIN! and TIMSKI!