[PB65 - Cornflakes] Rising from the Ashes

[Cornflakes]

Oh, and I saw this up north 

   

It does not look like my attack on Sucksatciv will come back to bite me (at least in the short term). SAC is still the lowest power in the world, and has apparently build ANOTHER settler. I don't think Bombay grew above size 2 in the 5 turns that I've had vision on it so I think that settler was slow-built? Bombay still doesn't have a granary even though SAC is playing EXP.

[Cornflakes]

It’s T77 and Pyramids are still unclaimed! Once the turn makes it around we will be proud owners of a glorious pile of rocks

[Cornflakes]

Sucksatciv insists on continuing to send out naked settlers, meanwhile leaving the flatland border city (which is closer to my capital than his) defended by archers and not even connected to his trade network. The first screenshot is from a couple turns ago before our 10t enforced peace expired.

   

That settler sat there for a couple turns, then retreated once our peace treaty ended. On the turn of this screenshot Bombay in the north was still only defended by an archer/warrior, and Agra only had a warrior and no trade connection. It hurt to whip axes on the eve of Pyramids completion but it was a hedging of my bets by sniping Agra for the silver, in case Pindicator beat me to Pyramids. Here's where we stand this turn:

   

This might be overkill but I'd rather get a decisive victory instead of risking coming up just short. Next turn I move in 4 axes, 3 chariots, a spear, and a warrior (with 2 axes and a chariot a turn behind). On defense he currently has 2 archers and a warrior visible. Agra can't whip this turn so unless he has a couple unit relief force one tile back I should be able to easily secure Agra.

I offered peace for Agra. That will bump me up to 8 cities equal with MJMD, and allow Sucksatciv to settled that naked settler to get back up to 8, while giving SAC 10 turns to shore up his defenses. Now that I've secured Pyramids I can take a more turtle approach in the near term. I've been signaling war with SAC to Superdeath and he's been responding diplomatically but his power graph is solidly last in the world so I have no confidence in him actually joining and feel no obligation to remain at war longer.

Note my "income" -3 gpt at 0% Surprisingly after the turn roll that jumped to +6 due to pop growth. Here are the demographics and graph overview.

   

   

After pop growth on the turn roll I've ended up in 2nd place food. My GNP is a mirage due to CRE + Madrassa culture, although Superdeath at #1 GNP is also a mirage due to Stonehenge + religion. This rich + tight map has inspired mass expansion into crashed economies across the board. My #1 power is 50% higher than SAC, and after factoring in baseline power from tech and pop I likely have double his fighting force. MJMD has to be the land area leader with a whopping 22 extra land tiles compared to me (at just one more city). Agra after popping borders will bring us to equal land area. I'm really liking Pericles of Arabia in the present position as we approach the mid-game. Plan is roughly:

- Revolt to Representation next turn for the happiness
- Maximize growth to happy cap
- Hire scientists + prophets once we reach the happy caps
- Push research down the religious line for monk wonders
- Tentative bulbs:
--- Theology (Prophet, requires all early religion prerequisites)
--- Civil Service (Prophet, avoid Monarchy, requires Code of Laws)
--- Paper (Scientist, requires Alphabet)
--- Divine Right (Prophet, requires Monarchy)

2 extra scientists can be used for golden ages, along with another non-scientist. So all together we have plans for the next 6 great people. The 7th great person requires 700 GPP = 25 turns @ 4 specialists from a Madrassa. I also need to decide when to slip in Construction and/or HBR for defense/deterrence. Metal Casting > Machinery is also highly desirable for windmills on all the plains hills so that I can max production for military later. And of course Feudalism > Guilds for Camel Archers. But the tentative plan right now is to turtle into the Monk economy while riding the Philosophical slingshot through the Medieval era. I'll also keep my power graph hovering near the higher end for deterrence.

[Cornflakes]

Looking back at the demographics I noticed minimum GNP of 3 cross-referencing with the graphs shows that is SAC. Given the capital culture plus at least 2 monuments plus 4 EP he might be losing 5 gpt this turn Maybe it would have been better to stay at war and invade into a striking army. On the other hand I should easily be able to outpace India in research. Maybe revise my tech path and aim for an attack at maces/cats? I realized last game (PB63) that Maces get odds on axes defending hills. The downside is the diplomatic ramifications of Early Leader Syndrome resulting in a dogpile.

Alternatively I could use SAC as a buffer state on my north/east and slam a maces/cats stack into MJMD or try to incite Pindicator into a 2v1 against MJMD. Or just stick with the monk economy plan and digest India afterwards. The intermediate territory between India and me is complete junk, meaning my supply lines will be incredibly stretched. My food is concentrated near the capital, near the gold, and along the coasts. My northeast is all hills, mountains, and plains tiles. I would essentially end up with 2 cores to defend with a strip of poor territory between. Without engineering and knights it will be tough to defend. I might prioritize Construction earlier in order to maintain flexibility but I still think the turtle approach with Engineering + Knights will yield the best overall outcome. Maybe I'll even roll a Great Engineer from Pyramids to bulb engineering.

[Ginger()]

Are you going to attempt to double dip both monk techs and Mace/Cats? Or are these two separate visions that you’re considering based on what develops?
(And if they are exclusive, when do you expect to have to make that call?)

[Cornflakes]

I'll get back to you on the tech path question. For now please welcome the newest member of the family:

   

SAC accepted Agra for peace. Really this deal is best for all parties except Superdeath who joined the war this turn ... without building any military If we'd stayed at war SD could certainly pick off that "Flash Point" city leading to total collapse. SD may still be able to now with world's smallest army against an already whipping defender I think that's unlikely. I definitely would not have gone to war and picked off these cities without prompting from SD but it has turned out nicely profitable with 2 cities ... one a cottage-able river valley and the other with Silver.

SD, if you incite a dogpile in the future ... please build military. You'll probably have another opportunity in 10t, will you be ready?

[Cornflakes]

Are you going to attempt to double dip both monk techs and Mace/Cats? Or are these two separate visions that you’re considering based on what develops?
(And if they are exclusive, when do you expect to have to make that call?)

The preamble to my response is that it is definitely a double dip because cats will be needed prior to completion of the monk sequence of techs/builds. Civil Service is the ultimate goal of this next phase, and the religious techs are prerequisites along with free* Theology from a bulb. Paper (for University of Sankore) is also a free* bulb tech. The real question is how early I pick up Metal Casting > Machinery to unlock the Mace. Coupled with the decision to his Machinery will also be monitoring of Superdeath's tech progress and gauging how quickly I need Engineering for castles and pikes Cataphract deterrence.

Let's take a step back for a quick SWAT analysis:

STRENGHTS

• High natural production from plains and resources
  
• Representation specialists and happiness
  
• Highest (ancient) military in the world
  
• Culture defensive buffer zone
  
• Stone [to boost UoS and Spiral Minaret]
  

WEAKNESSES

• Nothing to build right now except military (or barracks)
  
• Already tapped all area food resources, no more good city sites
  
• As last in turn order, other players get first strike opportunity after peace treaty
  
• Diplomatic isolation due to: Pyramids psychological impact, high phantom GNP from culture, and previous wars
  
• High unit maintenance of 10 gpt already
  
• 0 gpt income at 0% research
  

OPPORTUNITIES

• Weak neighbor (India) in northeast
  
• Monk wonders, supported by Prophet bulbs and PHI discounted Monasteries
  
• Development of cottages on recently acquired riverside grasslands (about 7 available)
  
• Rapid advancement through Medieval era via specialists and bulbs
  
• Fostering a friendship with Pindicator against MJMD between us
  

THREATS

• Sucksatciv peace treaty ending T89 (my T88 is last turn of peace)
  
• MJMD smoldering jealousy over Money, our gold city
  
• Superdeath power spike at Cataphracts
  
• Tech stagnation at Renaissance era and beyond
  

Overall I really really like my position in this game but there is a lot of room for things to fall apart diplomatically. The biggest hurdle to overcome right now is opening up build queue items other than ancient era military. For that I need a religion (missionaries > monasteries/temples), or Construction (catapults), or Alphabet (Research). Until then my production is minimally productive. I also want to be growing onto cottages and/or specialists. Judaism was just founded so I will have to get religion from the Theology bulb which requires about 400 beakers of prerequisites and a GProphet. Alphabet is 400 beakers and would let me build Research at the exclusion of military. Construction is 550 beakers. I suppose HBR at 400 beakers is another alternative. Right now income is 0 and I have a few more turns of growth before I start hiring specialists but I'll need to make the decision soon. Also Oracle is still teasing me in the back of my mind.

Based on the above analysis I'm leaning towards the following plan:

• Polytheism > Priesthood - 1-turn Oracle the turn after. It’s T80 after all. High time for that to get built. If successful take Construction. Otherwise Priesthood is a cheap tech and necessary prerequisite. If I get Construction use excess production to build a couple catapults for insurance. 
  
• Monotheism > Meditation > Bulb Theology > build half price Monastery, then 2-whip a missionary and overflow a 2nd, and continue spreading religion. Also building temples with excess production.
  
• Bulb Paper (must be done before Code of Laws research)
  

But surely Oracle won't be available on T90, right?!

[Cornflakes]

I can get Oracle EOT77 for sure, and have the production/chop capacity to finish it T76 if I can scrape together enough commerce (I think I can, barely).

[Ginger()]

You would Oracle Construction over Currency, Is the OB situation that rough?

[Cornflakes]

You would Oracle Construction over Currency, Is the OB situation that rough?

I need Sailing for all trade connections. But I’m also projecting the OB situation into the future. My GNP is over 100 already and double the next closest. Half of my GNP is culture, but the psychological effect is still the same. If I take Currency there will certainly be a trade embargo against me. And for the currency trade route to be worth 2gpt I’ll need OB from two neighbors to fill up all my routes. And like I’ve said previously, all other players are either PRO (no benefit to them of OB), or Sucksatciv (no trade there) or Superdeath.

Given all the above, Currency is only worth 8 commerce per turn. Far too low of a payoff. Construction will guarantee security in the near term and give me useful builds while waiting for maces to be unlocked. The other alternative is Code of Laws but that won’t speed Civil Service because the limiting factor there is time necessary to birth 2 GProphets.