[SPOILER] Suryavarman II of Maya - Whosit & Ravus Sol

[T-hawk]

OK, I figured it out. GNP does not factor in raw commerce. It is Beakers + Gold + Culture + EP. Including the hidden beakers (the 1 free beaker, and the bonus pre-req beakers). If I recall correctly, for each pre-req, you get a 20% bonus, right? Or is it just 10%? Can't remember where to find the numbers. Well, I'll dig it up if a lurker doesn't do it for me. :neenernee

This is all correct. GNP is actually Beakers + Gold + Culture + EP - expenses. Each "arrow" prerequisite is a 20% bonus; each "required" prerequisite indicated by a small icon of the previous tech gives no bonus. This bonus is applied after the 1 free beaker.

Oh, of course! I can use the Rival Average stat to help... 19.

So... 19 * 5 = 95.

Rival Average is not necessarily exactly 19. Could be 19.2 or 19.4 or so on, rounded down.

[Rowain]

And you don't know for sure that one has 21 GNP. So 95 - (23+16) = 56 and this would fit to 20 + 18 + 18 (or 22 + 18 + 16 or 20 + 20 + 16.
But this aside my little stab at C&D:

Fin/Cre England researching BW = 23
Fin/Philo Korea res BW(or religion) = 21 (same oasis as England but not Cre)
Fin/Exp Byz is difficult but my guess is working oasis res firsttier = 19
or working forest (Exp!) = 16

Phil/Exp India res BW building Worker: 18 (chop 2nd worker seems wise if they have similar start)
Agg/Exp Inca building worker researching 1st tear: 16
researching religion: 18 (they have Agri so they can research a religion)

a) 23 + 21 + 19 +18 +16 = 97 => 19,4 av
b) 23 + 21 + 16 + 18 + 18 = 96 => 19,2 av
c) 23 + 21 + 16 + 18 + 16 = 94 => 18,8 av (gets the average rounded up or as usual in Civ4 trunkated?)

[Whosit]

And you don't know for sure that one has 21 GNP. So 95 - (23+16) = 56 and this would fit to 20 + 18 + 18 (or 22 + 18 + 16 or 20 + 20 + 16.
But this aside my little stab at C&D:

Yeah, I never really explained why I thought it was 21. Since I know that GNP updates in "real time," I worked the oasis tile to see how that changed my ranking. It put me at 2 (with 22 GNP). That meant it had to be more than the real #2, since ties go to the lowest ranking (in this case, #3). Since there was another Financial, non-expansive, non-creative civ out there, it made sense that it was them, working Bronze Working (of course, the tech guess is a little fuzzy).

Fin/Cre England researching BW = 23
Fin/Philo Korea res BW(or religion) = 21 (same oasis as England but not Cre)
Fin/Exp Byz is difficult but my guess is working oasis res firsttier = 19
or working forest (Exp!) = 16

Phil/Exp India res BW building Worker: 18 (chop 2nd worker seems wise if they have similar start)
Agg/Exp Inca building worker researching 1st tear: 16
researching religion: 18 (they have Agri so they can research a religion)

a) 23 + 21 + 19 +18 +16 = 97 => 19,4 av
b) 23 + 21 + 16 + 18 + 18 = 96 => 19,2 av
c) 23 + 21 + 16 + 18 + 16 = 94 => 18,8 av (gets the average rounded up or as usual in Civ4 trunkated?)

Hmm, thanks for the analysis! At last, I know the power of having dedicated lurkers! Mwahahahahahaaa~! I was originally thinking B, but I'll have to consider A, too (I did the math for that in my head wrong...). I don't think C works, because I think that Civ IV always trunkates, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, your results look better than anything I would have come up with. Yet I guess all this just proves that there are too many variables at the moment. India building Worker and teching BW certainly seems like the best play. Again, based on the health numbers, it's safe to say we all have forest-filled BFCs. Good point about the Inca going for a religion. It crossed my mind... though I unwisely put it aside in favor of a strategy that I figured was stronger.

[Rowain]

They (Inca) could also res AH instead of rel but if their starting location is similar to yours I don't see much point in it.

My personal pref is A with Byz avoiding the Exp bonus for the worker because
a) the build something other;
b) want to avoid idle workers so they try to research faster;
c) didn't bother to MM and the Gov autoselected the Oasis.

[Whosit]

OK, a couple more turns have been played. Save came around a bit faster than expected, but I've got some more data. Three of our opponents have researched techs: Tredje and Malakai last turn (turn 4), GE this turn (turn 5).

No soldier points were gained on turn 4, so I suspect that both had researched Agriculture. 2000 soldier points were gained this turn, and based on GE's starting techs, he most likely teched Mining.

But, I feel like something is wrong with my math. Of course, it could also be the way I'm gathering data. Since we're first, no data changes with our opponents until after we move, so I'm basically collecting data a turn later and calling that the previous turn's data. Well, anyway, Tredje and Malakai are both Financial, and if both were working the Oasis (+3) and were working a tier 1 tech, like Agri, they would have a total of 13 beakers per turn, right? (8 Palace, 1 City, 1 free, 3 tile.)

Agric costs 44 beakers. It would take 4 turns to tech, so they would have researched it at the end of turn 4. I wouldn't notice this 'till turn 5. But I noticed it turn 4, which means they had it on turn 3.... Arghh, what's wrong here?

Yeah, they definitely had the score increase at the top of turn 4, which means.... they got it... hmm. I think I'm counting wrong.

Turn: 0-1-2-3-4
Tech: 4-3-2-1-0

Oh, no, it makes sense. I was just being confused. Ignore all this!

So, yeah, they teched Agriculture, which is consistent with tech times and what they most likely needed. GE got Mining. Still suspect Kyan and Nakor going for Bronze Working. Oh, almost forgot. Some fluctuations with the GNP. Rival worst went up from 16 to 18. This is probably consistent with GE continuing on to Bronze Working and thus getting the 20% research bonus. And working a non-commerce tile (most like plains forest for the EXP bonus).

Also realized that my sandbox world is wrong in some respect, since Agri costs 48 there. Will have to mess around some time later. Anyway, expecting one of our opponents to land BW first, since they are Financial. Worker and BW will be done in 1 and 2 turns respectively, so I'm going to refine the opening play.

We are also 1 turn away from revealing new tiles to the southwest.

[Whosit]

New Worker Plan:

OK, done some more fiddlin' with Worker actions, and I think I have improved on the previous plan. Settler is still ready on turn 22, but I think I am more efficiently using Worker turns.

Turn 7: 1st Worker pops. Moves 1NE (G. Forest). Capital starts 2nd Worker
Turn 8: BW researched. Tech Agriculture.
Turn 10: Chop finishes
Turn 11: Worker 2 pops. Both move to P. Forest 2E of capital. Build Worker, work Oasis tile for Growth.
Turn 13: Chop finishes. Border pop. Agri finishes (tech Wheel). Revolt to Slavery. Worker farms Corn.
Turn 14: Second Worker starts mining Gold.
Turn 15: Warrior 2 pops. Start 3rd Warrior.
Turn 16: Warrior 3 pops. Start Barracks as placeholder. Corn farm done. Work that instead of Oasis.
Turn 17: Capital size 2. Switch to Settler. Gold Mine finished. Work Corn Farm and Gold Mine. Corn Worker goes to hill forest 2N of capital.
Turn 18: Wheel teched. Research Pottery. Both Workers to go forest hill. Chop.
Turn 20: Chop complete. Start mining hill while you're there.
Turn 21: Pottery done. Mine done. Whip Settler (2 turns left). City size 1. Overflow into Granary. Tech AH?
Turn 22: Settler built.

Assets: 3 Warriors (1 exploring, 1 guarding 2nd city site, 1 guarding Capital). 2 Workers (2N of capital). Corn Farm. Gold Mine. G. Hill Mine. City size 1, 3 turns to growth, 3 turn to Granary.

Options: Build road connection to Gold, and mine/road Gems for expanded happy cap. At size 2, build/chop out 3rd Worker to help get new city running. Hope to find Copper. Horses will not be revealed in time for City 2. Continue growth oriented practices (basically, convert all forests in capital's BFC into Workers and Settlers). Hopefully grab as much land as we can support early. Build cottages and stuff at capital to supplement Gold and Gems for commerce. Specify at least one city to build military units for defensive purposes.

[Whosit]

Alright, so Nakor/Gaspar got BW this turn/last turn, depending how you count it. We're gonna end up the last ones to get a first tech. Well, shouldn't matter much in the long-run. Worker 1 is out. Will begin chop next turn.

Will post demographics numbers tomorrow, as well as a screen shot of something interesting. Wandering Warrior found a lake with some nice resources. Crabs, watered Corn, and also Pigs, depending on where we set down. Can forgo pigs for more hills, I think. Still no sign of other civs, which is good and bad. Don't want anyone coming our way until we have 3rd ring or a warrior to defend the capital. While it would certainly be a gamble for someone to instantly declare war, if they are skilled with C&D, they can probably figure out we went Worker first (everyone has gone Worker first, by the way).

[Whosit]

Alright, so it's Turn 8. Let's see what there is to report!

Well, Bronze Working is researched, and the first chop is underway. I think that we are the only team going for a double Worker start, but more on that later. My schedule was a bit off, but in a good way: Agriculture will be done a turn earlier than projected. I really need to work on a more accurate sandbox, since the costs didn't add up right and I didn't anticipate the correct amount of beaker overflow.

We have copper nearby, like everyone else, I imagine:



We'll get it in our 3rd ring pop, so we don't need to settle it with our second city. Ravus, if you want to pipe up on thoughts for our second city spot? I threw that dot-map together a few pages back as a starting point. I'm thinking south-east, around the wheat/stone area.

Close-up of lake discovered:



Very, very nice looking location, and may be one of the few sources of seafood resource? I imagine that several of these lakes dot the area, we'll have to send out more scouting parties as soon as we can. Still no contact with any other civ, of course. Anyway, we should try to expand in this direction as a priority, perhaps. Thoughts?

Speaking of Stone, I'm wondering if the Pyramids would be a good idea. Now, assuming identical starts, everyone can pretty much go for it. The Financial civs have less incentive, I think. Looking at the map, cottages can still pay off in the long-run, of course, but there's enough food to make Representation-boosted scientists a viable early- to mid-term option. Still, I'd rather just grab as much land as possible, as per the original game plan. Eye on the prize, Whosit, eye on the prize. Diversions for Wonders has been the death of many. May God have mercy on their souls.

OK, so let's get some demographic info going.

Our GNP is down to 18, since we're working on a 1st tier tech now. Rival best is also down to 21, suggesting a 1st tier tech, as well. This coincides with when Nakor/Gaspar (Willem of England) completed Bronze Working. They are probably working on Agriculture themselves. They may finish it this turn or the next, if I am right.

Ah, yes, a puzzle: On turn 4, Rival Worst GNP increased from 16 to 18. This coincided with Gingereagle teching Mining and suggested that he was going for Bronze Working. On turn 6... Ah. That is when Kyan teched Bronze Working, and Rival Worst dropped to 16 again. So Kyan is working on a Tier 1 Tech. Most likely Agriculture, of course.

So, here's what I think everyone is teching now:

Nakor: Agriculture
Tredje: Mining*
Kyan: Agriculture
GE: Bronze Working
Malakai: Bronze Working

*Mostly a guess.

Before I finish working on this puzzle, some more important info.

Production
Rival Best: 3
Rival Average: 2
Rival Worst: 2
Our Rank: 1 (4)

Food
Rival Best: 5
Rival Average: 5
Rival Worst: 5
Our Rank: 6 (3)

Everyone has completed their Worker, and are now focusing on growth. Some are still working the Oasis, a few may be working the Plains Corn or possible the Forest Sugar, but it works out the same. No way to tell how many, though, but I'll use the GNP numbers to figure that out.

Rival Best: 21
Rival Average: ~19
Rival Worst: 16
GE: 18

Gives us:

Nakor: 21 (oasis)
Tredje: ?
Malakai: ?
GE: 18 (corn?)
Kyan: 16 (corn?)

Average Total: ~95
21 + 18 + 16 = 55
Left over: ~40
Tredje (Financial/Expansive) is working a 1st Tier, most likely.
Malakai (Financial): is teching Bronze Working, 2nd Tier. (I think 1st/2nd Tier will soon become useless terms. Oh well.)

I am going to assume that both are working an Oasis, since both are Financial and they have the most incentive to do so right now. That means that Tredje should have a GNP of 19, and Malakai of 21. Adds up to 40. Does this prove anything? Dunno, but the math works out. Of course, I had my conclusion first, so who knows how accurate this may be.

Anyway, I'm sticking by my tech predictions. We'll see how that plays out. Now then, regarding Workers. Everyone else will be building a Warrior, no doubt. So in the unlikely event that we stumble upon someone in the next couple of turns, chances are that they will have a defender, so no sneak attacks, sadly. I'll keep a close eye on soldier count. Anyway, hopefully my current build plan is good, but our two-Worker plan may give us an opportunity to get a productive edge in over our opponents. Current downside to plan: Workers are not in an immediate position to improve new city, but once we decide where it goes, I'll see if any adjustments in the plan can be made. If nothing else, city 2 can put some hammers into a Granary before a Worker finishes it off with a chop. And we'll want Worker #3 soon after the Settler. I think that on this map, we'll want a 2:1 Worker to City ratio.

[Whosit]

Well, I was wrong on my tech predictions. Very wrong. Trejde just founded Hinduism, which means he was teching Polytheism, which means he was researching something with a pre-req, which means a lot of my estimates were clearly wrong. Oh well. Rival best GNP is now 24 because of the +5 holy city culture. Which means that his Beakers are 24 -7 (culture) -4 (ep) = 13. Hmm.... Sounds about right.

Anyway, I'll see about revising my predictions later. I wonder how that religion will pay off from Tredje. Hopefully his Worker has enough to do... farming the Corn and mining the precious metals, I suppose, but can't chop down trees yet.

[Rowain]

Anyway, I'll see about revising my predictions later. I wonder how that religion will pay off from Tredje. Hopefully his Worker has enough to do... farming the Corn and mining the precious metals, I suppose, but can't chop down trees yet.

Tredje of Byz ?! If your Byz post is correct they start with Myst and wheel so his worker doesn't have much to do. He must really love his rel to forgoe any workertechs.

Anyway: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you