[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[Ceiliazul]

t17 Micro

Timski, I checked out your new plan in the old sim. I decided to go ahead and whip the warrior on t17, pushing the Stonehenge finish back out to t23. With the demo analysis in hand showing that Commodore is distracted, the extra worker turn seemed like a better long term option.

Delaying Stonehenge 1t actually doesn't cost anything on the next settler, but lets the copper get mined sooner. I just didn't want to give up that extra development for the 1t sooner stonehenge. One of my weaknesses I identified in 25g was over-rushing for wonders, I'm trying to avoid that in this game. As ever, this will pay off unless it means we lose a wonder race.

[timski]

Hope the medical event wasn't too eventful.

un·daunt·able, adj, courageously resolute especially in the face of danger or difficulty: not discouraged (Merriam-Webster)

C&D:

• Commodore - Agreed with Hunting turn 16, and that can only be a dead Warrior on turn 17. Only Kyan would have the odds (via Aggressive) to take a Warrior this early, supporting the notion they are neighbors and already at each other's throats. Score 1.
  
• Dazed - Dazed must have both completed a Warrior and teched Mining on turn 13, since both Dazed and Kyan must be on 15,000 soldier points at turn 16 to get the averages and minimums to balance. Dazed would only be at 13,000 without both a Warrior and Mining. After Commodore's lost Warrior, there are 4,000 soldier points gained on turn 17, but one of either Dazed or Kyan stayed at 15,000 points minimum. I agree with Animal Husbandry from Dazed on turn 17, plus a warrior by either Dazed or GinerEagle, because Kyan can't have scored 4,000 points without taking a tech. Dazed is unlikely to have built the Warrior, since they have 3 already, and haven't grown. Curious why they might research Mining and then Animal Husbandry, not Bronze Working? Added: I suppose they intend to build Settlers with hammers and food, which may make more sense with Imperialistic?
  
• Kyan - No Warrior build on turn 13, so only has 1 Warrior (plus Scout). If Kyan did hit Commodore's Warrior, they risked losing their only Warrior. Of course they have whips, so not completely suicidal. Lack of recent Kyan builds and growth suggests a Worker-Worker - or maybe Settler, but with several land techs and chopping, 2 Workers seems most likely. Added: I wonder if Kyan is planning an Axe rush? Chopping out more Axes and hitting whichever neighbor is weakest?
  
• GingerEagle - Agreed, Bronze Working on turn 16. Clearly building something while growing, but did not complete a Warrior turn 16. Likely completed a Warrior turn 17. But why not time the Warrior to complete with growth? Something doesn't fit. Regardless, be prepared for a Warrior coming from the west, since that would be their second. We can be fairly sure that GingerEagle has just one Worker for the next few turns, so isn't going to be chopping anything in a hurry . Score 2.

Side Contest: How long can we avoid Agriculture - and Archery?

The secret lies in our sacred Cows. We have so many Cows, we don't need to work any fields for a long time. And because we have belief in our sacred Cows, we can skimp on defenses a while. Well, maybe.

Tech Wheel, Animal Husbandry, Meditation, Pottery, and probably only then Archery and Agriculture.

After Stonehenge, Capital builds Settler, then Axeman (whipped), then another Settler, then Granary (whipped). Red City builds Worker, then Granary. With a few tweaks to tiles or a neighbor bonus, Pottery will complete just in time, but not if we take Polytheism.

The first available Worker (last to finish the Copper mine) builds enough of the northern road to get the Settler from the capital to B2 in 2 moves. The second Worker mines the Silver. Third Worker and the first Worker then improve the Cow south of Red City. Both first and third Workers then head north to improve the Cow at B2 and finish the road. Meanwhile the second Worker improves the red City's eastern Cow.

City B2 would be settled by turn 40. Granaries potentially in our first 2 cities by the early 40s. After that our Workers will be free, for both Farms and Cottages. The Silver mine means we can keep research up at the equivalent of 80%, even with 3 cities and no Cottages. I'm not clear how you plan to play the Cottage/Food/GP balance. Some of the Cow improvements can be swapped for Cottages once Pottery is in.

I wanted to get a sense for whether it was possible to surive without Agriculture until the 40s, and it is, if we take Animal Husbandry early. Less sure about late Archery. With 2 Warriors and an Axe, and only 1 city capable of whipping, we're somewhat vulnerable. Teching Animal Husbandry and Archery after the Wheel doesn't leave an obvious opening for early Meditation - surely we need Pottery in the 30s, not 40s?


Added: And then I noticed and you appear to be already researching Agriculture, not the Wheel. So I guess you have another plan...

[Ceiliazul]

En Passant

Commodore moved his warrior back onto the forest hill, giving me an interesting choice. My warrior can move South, allows me to continue scouting, and provides a passive threat to Comm's capital. Or, I can wuss out and retreat back to my land. Duh, I pushed forward:



Welp, there's Comm's second city. I mean, Bronze has to get protected, and the city on the hill behind the river seems best. That's really unfortunate for me, he'll have a stranglehold on our choke point indefinitely. The hill 1W (where my warrior is standing) is a nice spot too, closer to the cap and saves a forest... dang, not much we can do about either option.

Kyan grew and teched on t18, as the only score change.

I've made a mistake on the previous demo charts, Dazed grew to size 3 on t17. That means no tech and he's swapped techs for some reason, nothing he can research should take this long. I do expect BW to pop for Dazed soon, but there's something else troubling:

On Sun, Feb 12, 2012 at 4:00 PM, Kyan <peterofindia@gmail.com> wrote:

Good Game Dazed, enjoy the second city!

Dazed has been using the forward button to send me saves, so I can see Kyan's timestamp. This is the first time any text has been included. Timski what do you make of this?

Possibilities:

• Dazed, not Kyan won the warrior combat and will soon claim a city
  
• Kyan has spotted a Dazed Settler
  
• Kyan is fishing
  

I forwarded the text right along to Commodore, without really thinking about why. Commodore has his own interesting choice this turn: he can attack my warrior on the hill at 25% odds, or choose to push his own scouting warrior forward toward me. Hmm, some serious developing plotlines here!

Hope the medical event wasn't too eventful.

Everyone is home safely, thank you for the well wishes.

Dazed - Dazed must have both completed a Warrior and teched Mining on turn 13, since both Dazed and Kyan must be on 15,000 soldier points at turn 16 to get the averages and minimums to balance. Dazed would only be at 13,000 without both a Warrior and Mining. After Commodore's lost Warrior, there are 4,000 soldier points gained on turn 17, but one of either Dazed or Kyan stayed at 15,000 points minimum. I agree with Animal Husbandry from Dazed on turn 17, plus a warrior by either Dazed or GinerEagle, because Kyan can't have scored 4,000 points without taking a tech. Dazed is unlikely to have built the Warrior, since they have 3 already, and haven't grown. Curious why they might research Mining and then Animal Husbandry, not Bronze Working? Added: I suppose they intend to build Settlers with hammers and food, which may make more sense with Imperialistic?

Excellent analysis re: warriors! I agree with the tech conundrum, made tougher by some apparent tech swapping. I mistakenly recorded a tech for him on t17, actually his capital grew. That means Dazed has gone 10t without any tech points?! A mystery there, for sure.

Also agreed re: settlers. Dazed will have to be whipping to make use of that IMP bonus... and I do think he knows that.

GingerEagle - Agreed, Bronze Working on turn 16. Clearly building something while growing, but did not complete a Warrior turn 16. Likely completed a Warrior turn 17. But why not time the Warrior to complete with growth? Something doesn't fit. Regardless, be prepared for a Warrior coming from the west, since that would be their second. We can be fairly sure that GingerEagle has just one Worker for the next few turns, so isn't going to be chopping anything in a hurry . Score 2.

Yes! GE's quick growths make almost certain that he doesn't have the workers to contest for Stonehenge. I do expect to see a scouting warrior coming my way, and in the above screenshot I have a warrior in the North to meet him. If Commodore pushes his pawn though, my Northern warrior will have to turn tail to protect the capital. By t27 we have the option of responding with an axeman, but that's still too far away for comfort.

Side Contest: How long can we avoid Agriculture - and Archery?

The secret lies in our sacred Cows. We have so many Cows, we don't need to work any fields for a long time. And because we have belief in our sacred Cows, we can skimp on defenses a while. Well, maybe.

Tech Wheel, Animal Husbandry, Meditation, Pottery, and probably only then Archery and Agriculture.
...

Added: And then I noticed and you appear to be already researching Agriculture, not the Wheel. So I guess you have another plan...

That was following the original "ultimate macro" plan, but I only have 1t into Agri. I swapped to wheel per your excellent suggestion, and agree with AH before Meditation. I actually think Pottery might get bumped too, it would be great to chop a granary as the first build in city2...

[Ceiliazul]

Stream of Consciousness:

I like the idea of delaying Agri, but with 1t already invested it may be more efficient to finish it for the pre-req bonuses. Since Pottery and AH will follow in short order, Agriculture becomes mostly free. Free beakers that is, although I'll pay in time (~3t)

Even the time delay isn't huge, as my city's production will be tied up until about the time Pottery can finish anyway. And (Assuming red dot) no cows will be in the first ring so sacrificing for early AH seems silly.

I'm not in any hurry for meditation, especially if we are successful with Stonehenge. If Med/Poly both get taken, so be it. I'll have pretty healthy happy caps even without any religion, so I'd rather push the economy snowball and get a later religion.

In short, I'm leaning toward Agri -> Pottery -> AH -> Religion. If Stonehenge fails, then everything changes :-)

[timski]

Good Game...

Good Game Dazed, enjoy the second city!

Ouch. In general multiplayer speak, "Good Game" is universally reserved for the end. Certainly not a commentary on placing a Settler. Ergo Kyan is finished, or thinks they are. Here's the theory:

• Dazed Warrior-rushed Kyan. I had Dazed pegged at 4 warriors, but had difficulty believing the last one in my previous post, since I saw no need. Perhaps they haven't grown, because they've been working hammers to get the Warriors out.
  
• Kyan was planning an Axe rush. They had a Scout and Warrior as their only militarily. Built a Worker, which was probably chopping out the Settler they intended to settle Copper quickly.
  
• Dazed probably saw those moves, and knew they had to take some gambles to slow Dazed down. Aggressive Axes are hard to bounce. Unlike the rest of us, Dazed can make use of the extra land quickly. For reference, I have Daze's techs as Agriculture or Fishing turn 5, Hunting turn 9, Mining turn 13. So there's no reason to expect anything from them immediately. That looks like they expected to play a farmer gambit, saw the proximity of their aggressive neighbor, and switched onto a military path within 5-7 turns of the start.
  
• Commodore's fight against Kyan's only Warrior lost, but probably mauled Kyan's Warrior. If Dazed was really cunning, they let Commodore take the fall, so that Commodore had nothing to threaten Dazed moving against Kyan's capital. Or maybe they got lucky.
  
• Dazed turns up at Kyan's capital with 3 warriors. Kyan has 1 mauled warrior somewhere, no Copper yet, and a recently sized 3 capital, which is going to slave, at best, 2 Warriors, neither fully fortified.

Now, it is possible Kyan has pulled Archery out the hat (you said nothing of power changes this turn), and so the comment is goading Dazed, who will turn up at the capital to find a newly whipped Archery. Or perhaps the capital isn't at risk, and Dazed has simply hit Kyan's second Copper city, in practice eliminating Kyan from the game (population demos would be really helpful just now, so we can determine whether there are more than 5 cities out there).

I don't need to explain that if Kyan goes down now, Dazed is practically uncontrollable: 2 capital cities, all the space in between, and 2 neighbors that, right now, couldn't hurt a fly. The only plus is that both our neighbors should be 100% focused on Daze's monster empire, allowing us to keep our head down and somehow hope to out-tech Dazed. See un·daunt·able, above.

Commodore: Given recent developments, Commodore shouldn't be taking any chances with that Warrior. Indeed, there's a good chance you being so close to their capital will panic them into a warrior build. Keep that in mind, because that would give them 2 Warriors in the arena. Check the power demos before moving in close! And how ironic, that just when Commodore really needs to be blocking Kyan's former territory, their best site is probably right on our border.

Worker Micro: The later 'Henge means that the borders won't expand fast enough to follow the original Worker micro efficiently - there's a spare Worker turn standing on the Copper waiting to mine it, before the borders expand. Ah, the irony! At least we will have the Wheel by the time we need it (but only just, thanks to your change), so can do something useful. Precisely how "useful" is resolved depends on where the settlements are going, if so whether the red site is a hill. For ecample, if the red site is a hill, 3 road tiles are needed to get the Settler in place in one move, otherwise the only road tile absolutely needed in one 1NE of the capital (the same one that also links the Copper).

Agriculture and Tech: I could use some feedback on the dot-map and your general food/commerce/GP strategy, before talking though early Agriculture. Agri -> Pottery -> AH -> Religion makes sense if we are de-prioritising religion, since we should shave a turn off both Pottery and Animal Husbandry by tacking Agriculture first, even if we don't have much immediate use for Agriculture. That path would certainly be too tight to guarantee the religion in the second city, unless we delayed the third city significantly. With Commodore holding the border itself, the second city really benefits from large amounts of early culture. If we miss the religion here, perhaps chop the Oracle there? Likewise Pottery before AH probably means improving sub-par food tiles before Pastures, but our first Cows won't be within our borders till about turn 36 (natural border expansion at the second city), so Pottery before AH may be the way to go.

[Ceiliazul]

Ouch. In general multiplayer speak, "Good Game" is universally reserved for the end. Certainly not a commentary on placing a Settler. Ergo Kyan is finished, or thinks they are. Here's the theory:

• Dazed Warrior-rushed Kyan.
  
• Kyan was planning an Axe rush. They had a Scout and Warrior as their only militarily.
  
• Dazed probably saw those moves, and knew they had to take some gambles to slow Dazed down.
  
• Commodore's fight against Kyan's only Warrior lost, but probably mauled Kyan's Warrior.
  
• Dazed turns up at Kyan's capital with 3 warriors.
  

Kyan losing his capital would indeed be disaster... but remember that Kyan is AGG, his warriors defending the capital would get 25% city def, 25% hill def, 10% c1... total of power of 3.2... only 2 full health warrors should do the trick on defense.

I'm well aware of 'gg' in Starcraft culture, but I still (hope!) Kyan's email is a ruse. We started seeing power jumps ~t12, there's no way (assuming a rough mirror) that 4 warriors could even get to Kyan's capital... I neglected to mention in my turn report there are no 2nd cities planted yet.

Mechanics question: will I see anarchy (min gnp 1) in the demos? I think not, because the gov gets reinstated when they click End Turn.

[timski]

Unsure of the anarchy mechanics. But I am completely sure that Dazed has more Warriors than Kyan, by a significant margin. The explanation is within:

Full Rival Tech/Economy Summary:

I'm confident about most of my tech analysis now, so since we're diverging in places, I'll post up my analysis with detailed explanation. This is long, but is worth reading because it buries a lot of doubt.

GingerEagle

Techs:

• Started with Fishing and Hunting.
  
• T5 - Agriculture (or Mysticism).
  
• T9 - Mining.
  
• T16 - Bronze.

Economy:

• Started with Scout. Capital settled immediately.
  
• T5 - Work Boat completes, nets Fish.
  
• T6 - Capital grows to 2.
  
• T10/11 - Worker completes.
  
• T14 - Warrior completes. Capital grows to 3.
  
• T16 - Capital grows to 4.
  
• T17 - Warrior completes.

The only uncertaintly is the early Agriculture/Mysticism. On T5 only one rival scored 2,000 extra power from their tech, and we know that was Commodore with Mining (who is descibed later). The timeline excludes high-Beaker second tier techs, and GingerEagle already had Fishing. I think Financial GingerEagle is the only player that could earn enough Beakers to reach Agriculture, but there's no timing synergy with their T10/11 Worker - why not open with Mining, for the option of continuing to Bronze quickly? Of course there's no timing synergy with Mysticism either.

Both GingerEagle and one of Dazed or Kyan built Warriors T17. I'll explain Dazed/Kyan in detail below - unfortunately the minutiae of their C&D is critical to proving GingerEagle's Warrior. For now, the key is that the minimum power remained at 15,000 on T17, which has to be one of Dazed or Kyan, since GingerEagle's Bronze Working and population gain pushed GingerEagle to 16,000 on T16. (I can't find any combination that leaves GingerEagle at 15,000, even weird ones like a dead Warrior and a Barracks build.) Dazed did not score a tech, only a population increase, and increases from size 2 to 3 yield no power increase. So one of either Dazed or Kyan gained 2,000 power, and thus GingerEagle has to have picked up the remainder. Ergo, GingerEagle built a warrior.

GingerEagle's Warrior build means they haven't been working on Stonehenge, at least not with any enthusiasm. So why open with Mysticism and ignore it for 12 turns? I increasingly doubt they plan to build Stonehenge early, instead going for vertical growth prior to Settlers. And if so, early Agriculture would make much more sense.

Commodore

Techs:

• Started with Fishing and Wheel.
  
• T5 - Mining.
  
• T13 - Bronze.
  
• T16 - Hunting.

Economy:

• Started with Warrior. Capital settled immediately.
  
• T6 - Work Boat completes.
  
• T7 - Capital grows to 2.
  
• T10 - Warrior completes. Capital grows to 3.
  
• T14 - Capital whipped to size 2.
  
• T15 - Worker completes, overflowing into... Worker, Settler, or Warrior.
  
• T17 - Warrior dies.

Opening moves are very transparent, since Commodore is almost always the power leader, plus we have GNP confirmation that they were first to Bronze Working, and hence were the power leader all along.

We know Commodore built a warrior on T10, because the power lead rises in 1,000 soldier increments over turns 8, 9 and 10: At this stage of the game, nothing will grant that to one player, so someone else (Dazed, see below) momentarily takes the lead on T9, before Commodore regains it. I suspect that Commodore got a Warrior on T10, and not Hunting, because of the timing of Bronze Working. This Warrior becomes certain upon seeing one Commodore warrior 4 moves outside their capital, while knowing that they have already lost one Warrior - they had to build a second warrior before T16. The Warrior death on T17 is clear from the power lead drop: There simply is no other way for Commodore to loose 2,000 soldier points on that turn.

The only possible uncertainty is the T16 tech. If they whipped the first Worker into a Warrior, they could have completed a third warrior on T16, and teched a non-soldier point tech. However, in the three turns (since Bronze), I doubt they'd have time for anything except Hunting, and that means no Warrior build. With the lose of a Warrior, Commodore may now be teching Archery while building a Settler and not growing. Expect a few Archer builds for defense after their first Settler. And if so, we can expect Commodore to play an economy game for a while.

Dazed

Techs:

• Started with Mysticism and Wheel.
  
• T5 - Fishing (or Agriculture).
  
• T9 - Hunting (or Mining).
  
• T13 - Mining (or Hunting).

Economy:

• Started with Warrior. Capital settled immediately.
  
• T7/11 - Worker completes (or Worker part-built, completed around T11).
  
• T8/9 - warrior #2 completes.
  
• T13 - Warrior #3 completes. Capital grows to 2.
  
• T17 - Possible warrior #4 completes. Capital grows to 3.

Dazed is the most complex to explain, because their C&D depends on the inter-play of average, maximum and minimum powers, and logical deductions made from those inter-plays. As hinted earlier, I think they changed their game-plan very early, from farming to rushing, which confuses the logic even further:

Like GingerEagle and Dazed, the opening tech is hard to read, but it awards no power gain (as explained for GingerEagle). Dazed started with Mysticism, leaving Agriculture and Fishing. Since Dazed has no financial advantage, Fishing is probably the only tech they could reach in time with their size 1 capital.

Subsequently, Commodore and GingerEagle tend to be power leaders and losers respectively, leaving Kyan and Dazed to make up the average between them. This means that for many turns there was doubt as to which of Kyan and Dazed did something, but certaintly that one of them did it. So, on T8, the average rose by 500 (0.5), while the min and max were unchanged. With no tech or population changes seen via scoring, and no valid soldier-point buildings possible, one of Kyan and Dazed must have built a warrior (for 2,000 power points). As we'll see, it doesn't matter much which, because the following turn the other also builds a Warrior.

On T9 there's a 1,500 increase in the average power, with no increase in the maximum. The minimum power gains 2,000, which is GingerEagle. We know this for sure, because both Kyan and Dazed were still at population size one, so cannot have attained an odd-numbered power value. (Kyan could have technically built a Barracks, but started with 4,000 power, so would have raised to 7,000, and not been the minium. So the miminum is still GingerEagle, who we determine gained Mining. (GingerEagle could have built a Warrior here, but not subsequently teched Bronze Working, which we can be sure of from the sudden change in minimum power on T16.)

So, on T9 we have 4,000 power gain between Kyan and Dazed. It is not possible for whichever built a Warrior on T8, to also build another Warrior on T9 (size 1 capitals, no slaving, no chops). So only one of Dazed and Kyan produced a Warrior on T9, meaning that Daze's T9 tech had to also award power points. (The only early 4,000 power tech is Wheel, which Dazed started with.) Dazed only had enough time for a low-Beaker tech - Mining or Hunting, not Animal Husbandry. The final logical proof for this is that one of Kyan and Dazed had to reach 10,000 power on T9, briefly taking the lead from Commodore (as explained above) - that has to be Dazed with both a power-point tech and a warrior over these T8/9. So there are only 2 unknowns from the T8/9 period, neither of which makes any difference long term: (1) Exactly which of Dazed and Kyan built their Warrior on T8, and which on T9. And (2) whether Dazed took Mining or Hunting on T9.

The second unknown is immaterial to us, because on T13 Dazed gained another 4,000 power: For much the same reasons, another Warrior and a low-Beaker soldier point tech - whatever remained from Mining and Hunting.

So how do we know this was Dazed, and not Kyan? Aside from the score point increases from techs, we know T15 Kyan teched Bronze Working. On turn 16 both Dazed and Kyan were at precisely 15,000 power: With minimum 15, maximum 21, with GingerEagle no lower than 16, an average of 16.75 is only possible with 2 rivals at the minimum. Kyan had 4,000 power at the start + 2,000 Warrior (they built at least one) + 1,000 for population + 8,000 Bronze Working = 15,000. Kyan must have reach Bronze Working (and not Dazed), because Dazed started with 6,000 power points, and needed first to tech Mining, so could never attain Bronze Working at 15,000 power (at least not without absolute Warrior carnage). Ergo, Dazed had to be the player mass-building warriors - on T15 we can finally separate the two conclusively.

The important remaining uncertainty is T17's warrior. On current information, one of either Dazed or Kyan built a warrior on T17: One had to remain at the 15,000 power minimum (since GingerEagle and Commodore are defintely higher). Since there were no techs gained on T17, Dazed or Kyan could not have gained more than a Warrior between them. (Kyan could, for example, of produced a Barracks for 3,000 power gain, but then GingerEagle would have only a 1,000 gain to make the average balance, which would only be possible if they had not grown to size 4 already.)

As hinted above, I think Dazed started on a Farmer's Gambit, took one look at the proximity of their neighbor, and switched in military builds. That's why we get quirks like early Fishing tech, with no gaps for population growth while they slow-build a Work Boat. With one Worker out, and the Wheel, they may have abandoned home improvements completely to get their Warriors to Kyan quickly. With a third Warrior on T13 and a few roads, the rush would just be arriving at Kyan's front gate now.

If I'm correct, Dazed will be very weak economically. So they'd have to take Kyan's capital to stay in the game long-term. If their rush fails, both Dazed and Kyan are off to a miserably slow start.

Kyan

Techs:

• Started with Hunting and Mining.
  
• T5 - Fishing (or Mysticism).
  
• T15 - Bronze Working.
  
• T18 - Unknown (need power data).

Economy:

• Started with Scout. Capital settled immediately.
  
• T8/9 - Warrior completes.
  
• T13 - Capital grows to 2.
  
• T17 - Possible Warrior completes.
  
• T18 - Capital grows to 3.

Techs and Warrior builds are all explained under Dazed. The T17 Warrior is uncertain - either Dazed or Kyan gained one - given other events, I hope that's Kyan's second Warrior.

Builds are really vague for Kyan. I guessed a Worker and Settler earlier, but there could easily be a Work Boat in there, or even some quirk of the demos, like simultaneously losing a Warrior the same turn as building one. It is fairly clear Kyan's game is not going to plan.

The T18 tech could be Archery. By T15 Kyan would surely have been feeling a little nervous about any neighbor building so many Warriors - unless they completely misread the demos. But if Kyan only teched Archery this turn, it may already be too late, and hence "Good Game".

[timski]

We started seeing power jumps ~t12, there's no way (assuming a rough mirror) that 4 warriors could even get to Kyan's capital...

Since that last post was rather long, here's a brief story time:

• Assume Dazed and Kyan have capitals of similar layout to Commodore and our own: Border visibility with the second ring, 9 turns from Warrior departure to conquest.
  
• Kyan sees their own vulnerability (starting Scout only), and halts their opening Worker for a Warrior. But with a Warrior out on T8, they feel secure again.
  
• Dazed builds a Worker by T7, Warrior T9 (likely at max hammers), Warrior T13. The Worker lays at least 3 (maybe 5) road tiles, so the final Warrior can rush in 6 or 7 turns.
  
• Kyan eventually gets a Worker out ready for chopping a Bronze City Settler, starting on T16 (maybe after anarchy?). Perhaps Commodore's exploring Warrior comes too close, and Kyan decides to whack it on T17. Kyan wins, but gets mauled.
  
• Maybe Kyan feels vulnerable again, and decides to delay for a second Warrior, maybe they don't (and Dazed did built 4 Warriors), maybe they are unwilling to delay the Bronze Settler, unwilling to waste hammers on defenses that they won't need once they get Archery, unwilling to revolt to Slavery immediately, who knows? The optimistic mindset always struggles to change when so close to completing a plan.
  
• Then, over the hill (line of sight lost) comes Daze's 3-Warrior rush.
  
• Kyan is caught with their pants down: At worst one mauled Warrior, perhaps not even in their city. At best a second newly built Warrior, but not yet fortified.
  
• Dazed essentially walks straight in to Kyan's capital.

Could Kyan have missed those Warrior builds? Sadly yes: Dazed is typically average in power throughout, which is always harder to read than the max/min power rivals. And Warriors are only 2,000 power points each, surprisingly easy to miss among tech gains, unless one is watching closely.

Anyway, if you wonder why I'm nervous about delaying Archery tech on this map, wonder no more. It is the kind of map where we can't expect nice long warning periods. Just be glad there's no India player, with their Fast "combat" Workers.

(For example, a well-timed Commodore (especially, with that border city) Axe rush could be all but over (from power spike to conquest) in 6 or 7 turns. If we spend the first 4 of those turns having to research Archery, whipping won't save us. In contrast, if we have the tech already (but not necessarily the units), Commodore won't bother attacking, because we could immediately whip out Archers, and defeat any army they could build so quickly. Naturally, with Chariots, this problem just gets worse.)

[Ceiliazul]

here's a brief story time

The path you describe for Dazed would be foolish, in my opinion. It would require him to forsake the deer far too long for a long shot attack. For now, I think it's likely Kyan was being coy, but time will tell. Certainly any early warrior losses by those two is good news for us as long as it doesn't end in conquest.

Your point about a Commian axe or chariot rush is well taken. We'll keep our finger on the archery button, but don't hit it 'til we have a good reason to. Edit: Animal Husbandry is important here too, a few chariots of our own would be invaluable for avoiding archery.

On to the turn:

Ogg gets herded?


Ogg found only one reasonable tile to move to this turn, which led closer to an undefended Capital. How many warriors do we think he has, again? Hmm. Fog scouting reveals a bit more than meets the eye:



Ogg has an interesting choice next turn:

• Push toward his deer
  
• Fortify on this forest forever
  
• Keep exploring South (meet more peeps)
  

I'm leaning toward the 2nd option, anything to slow that copper city. Camping out adjacent to his copper seems like a good idea anyway, and will drastically slow his rate of chopping. The ultimate victory would be directing his 2nd settler elsewhere... but I don't think Commodore will be bullied that way. Although, come to think of it, we've never seen how he responds to a choke.

No score changes, no power changes this turn. If there is fierce warrior combat occurring elsewhere, the warriors are being replenished just as fast. No one has 2 cities yet.

For completeness, the demo and city screens. (Before EOT )

.

[Ceiliazul]

Combat Calc says my Ogg will get 96% odds on defense in that forest. He'd be very hard to remove until copper gets connected... and it'll be hard to connect it with ogg standing there.

Where's that diabolical smiley when you need it??