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A Ukr -> War
A Mos S A Ukr -> War
A Sev S A Mos
-- Three units can hit Mos, have to defend with three to keep it safe. Ukr is likely to be cut if it is supporting, so its best use is cutting War. If War is the unit that attacks Mos, I suppose I'm in trouble - sure, I get War this turn, but Mos is forced to disband (unless Gal isn't cutting Ukr).
-- what I consider the likely outcome: Gal takes Ukr with support from War. My Ukr forced to retreat (to Rum), Mos garunteed to fall in Autumn.
A Con -> Bul
F Rum -> BLA
-- positioning
F AEG -> ION
F ION -> Nap
F TYS S F AEG -> ION
F Rom S F TYS
-- have to being up enough forces that I can hold TYS, even against a 4th fleet in Tus. He can dislodge me this turn, but I will be secure after that. Need to clear Tus as a retreat path if he does decide to dislodge.
A Ven -> Tyr
A Tri S A Ven -> Tyr
A Ser S A Tri
A Tus -> Ven
-- Hopefully clearing Tus in case of dislodgement of TYS. Ven -> Tyr is also reasonably important in terms of threatening Vie, and is close enough to Mun to hopefully give scooter some pause about advancing too far east on the continent.
-- Expecting Rowain to hold position here. Have Tri supported just in case.
Those are the moves I sent to what I believe Amelia's email to be. If that's wrong, either grab them from here, or send a PM or something.
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Wonder if I can negotiate anything with Rowain to the extent of him actually putting up some defence against scooter as well?
Mos is lost, so offering to move it away so he can actually bring force to bear in holding War might be acceptable on his side. Though to be honest, I'll probably be making the same moves anyway, just checking if I can get any concessions out of him for doing so.
Mos -> Ukr, supported by Sev. Only way of keeping that unit alive that I can tell.
Rum -> Gal, cuts Gal support of Ukr or Bud, which-ever it was going to be helping.
Taking Bud or Vie requires double guessing and thought and stuff, I'll get back to that after sleep and (hopefully) negotiation with people.
Nap and ION can hold TYS, Rom might as well attempt to slide along to Tus.
Ven probably heading to Pie for similar reasons, unless it's looking to be vitally important that Tri is supported / occupied.
Probably going to change all this when I'm more awake. And also after talking to people. I hope I can actually talk to people this turn, as things might actually change substantially if I can.
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Screw it, crazy plans are the best plans.
Superficial response from Rowain, but I hope I managed to convey that I'd be letting him into Mos for free (well, only using the unit that made that move) if he'd ensure Ukr was clear (or, at least, unsupported), and give him room to bounce scooter's attack on War.
Also, only possible way of preventing scooter from winning that I can see if to take out Mun next spring, before any builds in Par can reach it. At least, as far as I can tell. So attempting the stunningly unlikely to ever work trail of Tyr -> Boh, Tri -> Tyr. Heavily implied to Rowain that this is what I'm intending, so hopefully he won't do something silly like bounce me in Boh, but there's always the chance he simply doesn't give a damn and will take advantage of me doing that to snipe Tri - Ven has much more important things to do than support Ser into it, anyway.
A Mos -> Ukr
A Sev S A Mos -> Ukr
A Rum S A Mos -> Ukr -- has to do something, if I'm not attacking Rowain it can't do all that much useful. Supporting anything at all is pretty much strictly better than holding.
A Bul -> Ser
A Ser -> Tri
A Tri -> Tyr
A Tyr -> Boh
-- because massive chains of impractibility are the best ideas when you're going to lose in a couple of years, if that :D
A Ven -> Pie -- bounce. If I lose here, I win TYS, likely disbanding it.
-- actually, my biggest worry is if scooter order Mar -> Bur. Allows him to defend Mun in Spring, and he'll have the build that's the only thing needed to indefinitely stall an army in Pie.
F Rom -> TYS
F Tus S F Rom -> TYS
F Nap S F Rom -> TYS
F ION S F Rom -> TYS
-- because impractical assults are the best assults. It does mean that if he tries anything funny at all, he loses TYS. Which, as pointed out above, quite possibly results in said TYS being disbanded, depending on exactly *how* he decided to be funny.
F BLA S Rum -- useful fleet continues to be totally useful. If everything goes to plan, I have 1 disband, and this is likely to be it. If I have more than one disband, it's 'cause Rowain stabbed me, and I'll probably be disbanding stuff like Pie and Rom out of spite.
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damn, ->Bur
Talking with Rowain as to any possible way to prevent scooter winning next year. Basically going to be full disclosure of everything.
I'm disbanding F BLA, since it's actually useless in every respect at this point (if Rowain stabs, scooter wins before my lack of BLA becomes relevant). Rowain has said he's disbanding Bud, which is what I would have been suggesting anyway - too far from the lines.
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Rowain Wrote:In spring I want to do: WAR -PRU with sup from LVN
GAL -SIL with sup from BOH or alternatly: BOH - SIL with sup from GAL and VIE moves into BOH
additional TYR attacks MUN.
Further MOS -WAR with sup from UKR and SEV should move to MOS . I suggested Boh->Sil, Vie->Boh, purely because Boh could be cut if supporting Gal, while Gal can't be.
Trying to impress on him that he needs to Mos->St.P to at least delay scooter's acquisition of it. He's relucatant about this, as it would involve my Ukr->War. His reasoning doesn't seem exactly sound, given the alternative he offered resulted in my holding Mos. Hopefully we can get past this sticking point, since the rest of the plan seems pretty solid.
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In the South:
Pie -> Mar for the lulz. Could hold with support from Tus, but Tus cutting LYO seems to be a better deal - if I lose Pie, I trade it for LYO, and probably have somewhere to retreat to as well. Also, support could technically be cut from TYS, trading TYS for Pie (and a unit), which seems a bad-ish deal for me.
Tus -> LYO. As above.
Rom -> TYS, supported by Nap. Need at least two strength hitting TYS, just in case he tries something silly like using it to attack somewhere.
ION -> Tun, because why not?
Given TYR is likely holding position (I can't imagine scooter moving Mun voluntarily, the attack is mostly to cut support);
Tri -> Ven
Ser -> Tri
Rum, I'm not sure. Probably hold (by which I mean, support something else that's not doing anything. As with Ukr and Sev, will depend on what it eventually hashed out with Rowain.
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Well, that's a welcome change.
Rowain suggested his Mos -> St.P and my Ukr -> War, vacating War in the autumn, as if it was his idea. Didn't really want to push my luck pointing out that it's exactly what I'd been arguing for the whole season, so just confirmed the alterations to moves.
Moves as current:
Russia:
A War -> Pru
A Lvn S A War -> Pru
A Gal S TURKISH A Boh -> Sil
A Vie -> Boh
A Mos -> St.P
Turkey:
A Boh -> Sil
A Tyr -> Mun
A Ukr -> War
A Sev H
A Rum H -- I suppose they could support each other, but there is absolutely no point.
other moves as the above post.
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I hate it when everything on your side works exactly to plan, but the other guy still ends up in a slightly better position than you are...
Wondering why there was that French support for ->St.P. Hopefully it was just scooter hoping to play my paranoia, rather than indicative of Rowain having informed him of the overall plan - or at least, enough of it for the remainder to be guessed.
I'm thinking we risk Pru being dislodged to have either Boh or Sil hit Mun.
The south does seem to actually be completely locked down. I might have to start playing it defensively, as it's getting to the stage where losing ION for the gain of TYS is actually a really bad deal - I can't go anywhere from there, and he just has to out-guess me and he's got the winning centre.
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Rowain is insistent that he needs a build in St.P this season for us to prevent scooter from winning. I see where he's coming from - scooter can very easily get 4 units threatening St.P, with only three able to defend from the south.
However, he wants to gain this build by risking scooter NOT ordering Nwy -> St.P this season, rather than risking that move occuring. Which means there's a decent chance we lose this turn. Which, for me, would be enough to sway me into picking the other option (hoping for a bounce in St.P), as it doesn't carry with it the risk of immediately losing the game. Oh well, it's his piece to order, so I suppose he's got the final say. But I'm thinking it's pretty high odds that this is the last turn in the game.
Oh yeah, should probably explain where the build is actually coming from:
I was only sitting in War to prevent possibly retreats there last phase. Getting out by moving to Gal, supported by Rum. This will dislodge Gal, which Rowain will disband, replacing it with a fleet in St.P(nc) if possible. And by 'possible' I mean 'if a build phase actually exists, given the game is probably going to end before it could'.
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...I should totally just take all Rowain's undefended centres now. Assuming the game does actually end this year (ie. scooter orders Nwy->St.P), it would leave him on 18, me on 16 as the only people with centres.
Sometimes I really wish I was a bit more of an arsehole, so I'd actually seriously consider doing something like that, rather than just coming up with the idea.
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