WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Serdoa]

a) 3-1-1-1 setup:
- case 1: Serdoa' theory: I'm hunter+assassin, selrahc=wolf, waterbat=Dragon + poison arrow. As outlined already this theory needs a redicoulous setup and a very 'strange' play from me.

But both points do not make it impossible. Take away all that can't be and what is left is the truth, how ridiculous it may be.

-case 2: Serdoa = Dragon, Selrahc=wolf, waterbat=hunter. Good fit with the abilities, Explains the use of poison for zak and nightkill, Gives reason why Bigger did attack me but not attack Selrahc when he was called a Lurker. And as outlined above explains why Serdoa makes such a move.

Doesn't make sense, waterbat would have killed and assassinated at the same time.

b) 5-1 situation:
- case 1: Dragon waterbat: same problem as above (poison arrows with Dragon don't fit well)
- case 2: Dragon Serdoa: possible. Todays play high risk move to win. Perhaps he really believed that there is more scum here and he tried to get their help.
- case 3: Dragon Selrahc: Also possible. Nothing contradicting that at all. Claims now that he scanned me and MJW as Dark. Hard to believe as I don't think he voted MJW even once yesterday

If we would have a 5-1 situation, my play makes no sense. Even if I get someone lynched, it will be 3-1 after the night. Do you believe the remaining villagers would not lynch me but someone else? No, they would lynch the guy who made them lynch a villager. So this move would lose me the game for certain IF I would be dragon.

[Rowain]

Doesn't make sense, waterbat would have killed and assassinated at the same time.

Huh. Are you insane? Since when did waterbat assassinate?

If we would have a 5-1 situation, my play makes no sense. Even if I get someone lynched, it will be 3-1 after the night. Do you believe the remaining villagers would not lynch me but someone else? No, they would lynch the guy who made them lynch a villager. So this move would lose me the game for certain IF I would be dragon.

a) You don't and didn't know for certain how many factions there are left. So that isn't an argument.
b) Who knowws what powers you have and hedged so long.

[Selrahc]

- case 3: Dragon Selrahc: Also possible. Nothing contradicting that at all. Claims now that he scanned me and MJW as Dark. Hard to believe as I don't think he voted MJW even once yesterday

Well, in fact I voted MJW immediately after the day started, then reiterated my vote more forcefully. Then there were a series of confusing revelations, which made MJW an unviable candidate for a lynch. So I moved my vote elsewhere for the day, with the intent of revisiting later if necessary. I even threw in a few references to my scan of his darkness, asking him what dark shadows he had been whispering in... Precisely so I could prove myself if I needed to make a claim later.

MJW. Attend please sir. You've slipped away. Come back to us, from whatever dark abyss you're currently whispering in.

My role does not say what dark and light mean, only that I can scan for whether people are dark and light. When MJW revealed himself as a demon, I was unsure what to make of it as far as my scan went, and became less certain. I think you can see that in how I reacted in the second half of the day.

So far, we've had two "Dark" themed characters die, both of whom were on the village side. Zakalwe and MJW. My current theory is that they would be false positives for my scan, while scum would also scan dark. Unless you have a dark themed role you want to reveal, I'm thinking this is slight proof you're scum.

[Serdoa]

Doesn't make sense, waterbat would have killed and assassinated at the same time.

Huh. Are you insane? Since when did waterbat assassinate?

Rowain, you wrote

-case 2: Serdoa = Dragon, Selrahc=wolf, waterbat=hunter. Good fit with the abilities, Explains the use of poison for zak and nightkill, Gives reason why Bigger did attack me but not attack Selrahc when he was called a Lurker. And as outlined above explains why Serdoa makes such a move.

and I don't believe you are a village vig with assassination ability. I am certain that is the ability of one of the scum-parties and it only fits for Hunters. Therefore if waterbat is hunter he would have had to poison and assassinate at once. And that I don't believe. Of course what I forgot was that you still hold up the fairy of you being another village-vig.

If we would have a 5-1 situation, my play makes no sense. Even if I get someone lynched, it will be 3-1 after the night. Do you believe the remaining villagers would not lynch me but someone else? No, they would lynch the guy who made them lynch a villager. So this move would lose me the game for certain IF I would be dragon.

a) You don't and didn't know for certain how many factions there are left. So that isn't an argument.
b) Who knowws what powers you have and hedged so long.

Well, again, you made the argument in your post about a 5-1 setup and the implications of it. Quote:

b) 5-1 situation:
- case 1: Dragon waterbat: same problem as above (poison arrows with Dragon don't fit well)
- case 2: Dragon Serdoa: possible. Todays play high risk move to win. Perhaps he really believed that there is more scum here and he tried to get their help.
- case 3: Dragon Selrahc: Also possible. Nothing contradicting that at all. Claims now that he scanned me and MJW as Dark. Hard to believe as I don't think he voted MJW even once yesterday

And I answered to that. So a) doesn't apply as we talked directly about a 5-1 situation. And for b) I can just say, even if you would believe I would be the Dragon (and again in a 5-1 situation) I would have to kill 4 (!) players in the night to win. Yeah, sounds totally reasonable.

[Selrahc]

And I answered to that. So a) doesn't apply as we talked directly about a 5-1 situation. And for b) I can just say, even if you would believe I would be the Dragon (and again in a 5-1 situation) I would have to kill 4 (!) players in the night to win. Yeah, sounds totally reasonable.

Serdoa, if you're the Dragon you logically have no idea whether it is 2-2-1 or 3-3-1(Or 3-2-1 etc). You may have decided that 3-3-1 represents your best hope to win, and decided to play for that possibility.

But you're currently arguing as if the dragon is omniscient. That is the field is X, the dragon won't act Y. But if the dragon doesn't know the true value of X, their impression of Y will be different.

[Serdoa]

And I answered to that. So a) doesn't apply as we talked directly about a 5-1 situation. And for b) I can just say, even if you would believe I would be the Dragon (and again in a 5-1 situation) I would have to kill 4 (!) players in the night to win. Yeah, sounds totally reasonable.

Serdoa, if you're the Dragon you logically have no idea whether it is 2-2-1 or 3-3-1(Or 3-2-1 etc). You may have decided that 3-3-1 represents your best hope to win, and decided to play for that possibility.

But you're currently arguing as if the dragon is omniscient. That is the field is X, the dragon won't act Y. But if the dragon doesn't know the true value of X, their impression of Y will be different.

Correct, in the example Rowain gave (5-1) I argued like that. Wouldn't make sense to make it differently right, as the initial situation we talk about is the outlined 5-1 from Rowain. I mean I also argued what I would do as Dragon, though I know I am not the Dragon.

That said, I think my best hope to win is 5-1, as I am a villager. I would be happy in that case. But I don't believe in it, because all I saw so far points in a different direction. Maybe I've gone crazy over several hours of rereading, making tables and stuff like that, but I rather believe that I simply found enough clues (which I presented already) that I can be believed.

[Serdoa]

I actually think Serdoa is the dragon here. He is planning to parlay with the other scum faction at night, after eliminating the Hunters. Since the Hunters get a day kill rather than a night kill, and assuming he is right about the start numbers, this will move the end game to a 2-1-1 scenario. Azza or Mattimeo will be killed by the last hunter shot.

Let me ask a few questions Selrahc.

1. You write I plan to speak with the other scum after eliminiating the hunters. If that would be true, we would not have a 2-1-1 endgame. Because without Hunters only Wolf and Dragon are left, both taking their night-kill on a villager leads to a 1-1-1 endgame. Or if the Hunter can still kill before he dies, a 1-1 after the night. In both cases, it would be in the end a draw between wolf and dragon. And I don't consider a draw a win. I stated that in another game already.

Also, why would the Hunter shoot a villager and not me? I am responsible for his death after all in that scenario.

2. You write "since the hunters get a day kill rather than a night kill". We had 3 night kills N1. So you tell me another faction was allowed to kill twice on N1? Which one was it? The dragon burned one, the wolfs killed one. The last was poisoned. By whom?

3. If "the hunters get a day kill rather than a night kill" is true, should we not lynch Rowain for certain? He said he is the day-killer so you agree with me (though getting there from a different angle) that he is the last Hunter.

The dragon, as a serial killer, presumably has greater abilities than a regular factionista, so he is hoping to convert that situation into a win.

I'm still not entirely sure why everyone is now convinced it's a 3-3-1 setup though? It seems to be mainly based on the fact that the hunters got a day kill despite Lewwyn dying. But we have no evidence that being killed would stop the day kill working.

True, but it would make more sense that the Assassination would come in that case BEFORE the Assassin dies. And say what you will, but Tasunke seems to take his time to write those and dropped some hints (like pindicator trying to kill someone in the night...). So I believe he also wrote the kills in the correct order.

Regardless of all this though, I scanned Rowain as "Dark" last night. That doesn't necessarily mean he is a bad guy. I scried MJW as "dark" as well, and he turned out to be village aligned. But I'm willing to go after Rowain.

Allow me some questions of your scan as well:

1. Why did you choose MJW and Rowain for your scries?
2. Why did you state on D1 that idea how to prove if novice is possessed or not if you could scan him instead? You didn't know at that time anything about false positives by your own words.
3. Why did you write the following on D2 when questioned about your MJW-vote

It wasn't why I initially voted for him, which was a standard pressure move, but I find his silence deafening at this point. He has left a void where normally he would leave a cacophony.

Standard pressure move? You sure drove a case which a that point should have screamed "scum" to you home I have to say. Also, I think you were told by Bigger that he scanned MJW, because see, he told us that MJW is a void demon and hey, what word do I see used in that sentence above? "void". I thought that already even before the kill, as soon as Bigger mentioned it the first time.

4. Why did you switch from MJW to Bigger after MJW had revealed? Because he said he is village? You did not consider confronting him with your read, despite it showing "Dark"?

5. Why do you then vote Mattimeo, because he has no active ability but STILL don't say anything about your read on MJW?

6. Why do you then vote slowcheetah, post you are unsure and unvote completely. STILL no mention of your scan. Good god, Selrahc, we had lost at that point already 5 players, it was obvious we were already nearing endgame. And yet you saw no reason all that time to mention it?

7. And then you finally vote Lewwyn. Still no tone about MJW. Any reason for that?

[waterbat]

You certainly doing your share today Serdoa.

Selrahc, please respond to those questions about MJW. Your villager self would let us go into a possible mislynch when you had MJW dead to rights?

[Selrahc]

3. Why did you write the following on D2 when questioned about your MJW-vote

Because I didn't want to reveal the full extent of my knowledge at that point.
At no point in my role PM does it say what Dark and light means. I still don't really know.

So I didn't really have a lot of confidence in the scan by about the mid point in the day. People's discussions about MJW made sense. I posted up my thoughts after his reveal, and then there was more discussion, and I started thinking that without more data, the scan wasn't worth much.

*Today* I've revealed it, because with more data I think I have a better idea of how it works. If Rowain gives me an explanation for how he has scanned dark, I might consider it. But if he doesn't... then I'll be thinking it's a point of evidence in his favour.

I'm still thinking that we're most likely hunting a dragon, and a dragon alone. You and Rowain are my choices for dragon. You're both playing like you expect other scum to come into play, which is the only realistic way the Dragon can win now.

1. Why did you choose MJW and Rowain for your scries?

They seemed reasonable enough? You don't think they were worth the scan?

Also, I think you were told by Bigger that he scanned MJW, because see, he told us that MJW is a void demon and hey, what word do I see used in that sentence above? "void". I thought that already even before the kill, as soon as Bigger mentioned it the first time.

It was in fact, another attempt at getting the dark thing in play. I definitely didn't know about the void in the role. They're just synonymous.

Also, why would the Hunter shoot a villager and not me? I am responsible for his death after all in that scenario.

You have hinted that you've got protection. If you're right about the setup, then even if the hunter goes after you then you're set if you've got protection from scum kills, something that really heavily fits with a SK role. You just need to team up with the other scum in the night, and wipe out 2 villagers. I would say the situation is to your benefit.

[Serdoa]

Also, why would the Hunter shoot a villager and not me? I am responsible for his death after all in that scenario.

You have hinted that you've got protection. If you're right about the setup, then even if the hunter goes after you then you're set if you've got protection from scum kills, something that really heavily fits with a SK role. You just need to team up with the other scum in the night, and wipe out 2 villagers. I would say the situation is to your benefit.

Selrahc, first you didn't answer several questions I'd really like an answer too. And I guess I am not the only one. But apart from that, the above is wrong. I stated that I can protect the village from wolves. Wolves are not the same as Hunters. I have also stated that I assume the Dragon to have NK-immunity. But the Hunter shoots at the Day (assassination as we've seen) so that won't work I would guess.

Also, even if all plays out as you state (what as I showed isn't the case imo) the question remains "Why would the other scum help me win?" That just makes no sense. Really, and that goes to all, we have spoken that trough now several times, and still there is NO way it is beneficial to the dragon to play as I did. It just makes no sense for him, he is the one who should be most interested in keeping his mouth shut and just let it play out. You all present dozens of ways that have several pre-conditions that all need to be met, just in order to get a draw. Why would I do that as the Dragon? It would be much easier (and less time-consuming by far) to just wait. I don't think anyone really will put forth now that I was the one most in danger to be lynched... But again, even in that case I should definitely wait and see if it happens.

I know how hard it is to believe anything at that point Mattimeo and Azza. But ask yourself if this play would make sense for me as Dragon. I'm certain you will agree that it does not. And in that case, draw the only conclusion remaining, that I am not the Dragon. And I am also not a Hunter or Wolf, but I think we are agreed on that, simply due to the play in the first 2 days. I am indeed a villager, Hill Giant by role name, able to protect others against the wolves as my active ability.

Last: I am going to bed in the next 20 minutes and probably won't have much time, if at all, till tomorrow 4pm GMT+1. Had to work today already and will have to tomorrow as well, as I need to keep a deadline which is slightly more important than winning this game. I'll make sure to answer all questions from you two, Azza and Mattimeo, but please ask yourself the questions I stated above about if my play would make sense as anything than a villager..