[Game Thread] WW49: Wizards and Werewolves

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn has disappeared.  It looks like he is hoping  the novice-serdoa fight lets him glide by.

Novice looks like he wants to be lynched and refuses anything that looks like work See his answer to gazglum when the paladin asked him to look into the possibility of lewwyn snuggling up to him. Or his answer to serdoa.

Yeah sorry I was off. It's not because you were rehashing novice vs. Serdoa.

Why does it have to be Serdoa or Novice today? Why not Superdeath? If I have to vote for serdoa or novice to save myself I will. I know 100% I'm a player.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn has disappeared.  It looks like he is hoping  the novice-serdoa fight lets him glide by.

Novice looks like he wants to be lynched and refuses anything that looks like work See his answer to gazglum when the paladin asked him to look into the possibility of lewwyn snuggling up to him. Or his answer to serdoa.

Yeah sorry I was off. It's not because you were rehashing novice vs. Serdoa.

Why does it have to be Serdoa or Novice today? Why not Superdeath? If I have to vote for serdoa or novice to save myself I will. I know 100% I'm a player.

Also if you're looking for my opinion on Serdoa vs. novice... Gun to my head I'd vote Serdoa. Serdoa is probably the last munchkin after SD and novice is either innocent or the Grognard. And honestly given the way he's played the last few days with his cards so close I'd say grognard is very likely. BUT AGAIN Town doesn't need to hunt the Grognard right now.

[Lewwyn]

Before SD voted novice he:

What's this? AdrienIer can't speak!
One thought his cases not weak
And sent a notion
To end his commotion
Could a warlock perform this tweak?

Yeah.. i dont have that power or i would have shut the bard up for 12hrs of dead-sleep.


Are you sure you arent trying to protect your scum-buddy Rowain and his silence power? I swear in Yggdrasil "berzerker rage" was a known ability..

And this is a terrible post. he's saying pindi and Rowaini are scum buddies, but given that the WK train doesn't happen without the two of them I think this is ridiculous. I'm not even sure why you guys are letting this go.

[Rowain]

@lewwyn it is easy to attack sd . But even if sd is munchkin there is another out. So please make your case who scum2 is .

@novice for me you practically promised to rolereveal if sd does it first. Your reluctance to follow through now i view as a way to delay it as long as possible to make any discussion impossible.

[novice]

@novice for me you practically promised to rolereveal if sd does it first. Your reluctance to follow through now i view as a way to delay it as long as possible to make any discussion impossible.

What discussion?

I lured Superdeath into claiming yes, as it was a rare opportunity where he was online and posting.

There's no reason why I should have to claim, and I find me being pushed today irrationally (I suppose) irritating, as I'm clearly not scum. Anyway, I guess I'll just do it anyway.

I'm a one shot redirector. I use my shield to redirect actions targeted at one player onto another player. I used it N2 to redirect actions targeted at Lewwyn onto Superdeath. It's breadcrumbed here.

[quote="Gazglum" pid="759790" dateline="1604057852"Lew try to pin everything on Superdeath. 

My reasoning was to try to redirect a night kill onto Superdeath. I thought scum might prioritize getting a kill through over anything else and possibly avoid the WK voters. Too clever by half, I suppose. Lewwyn had just dropped the rhyming and seemed to be gearing up, so I thought scum might take him out if he's town. Also, by not targeting a WK voter I wouldn't interfere with the bodyguarding.

Early on D3 I posted this, to make sure that my redirection hadn't interfered with any investigative actions (or to have something to point back to if it had).

If anyone has any action results on Lewwyn, or anybody else for that matter, I'd be very interested to hear about them.

[novice]

And this is a terrible post. he's saying pindi and Rowaini are scum buddies, but given that the WK train doesn't happen without the two of them I think this is ridiculous. I'm not even sure why you guys are letting this go.

Yeah, it's terrible. But he's clearly not reading the thread.

Superdeath, I claimed one shot redirector. Now go vote scum.

[Serdoa]

Ok, so few points

1) For the following discussion I mostly operate under the assumption that pindi, Rowain and Adrien are town. I have however thought about if they could be scum, but frankly, all of it is convoluted and when in doubt, go with the explanation that needs the least amount of variables to be a certain value. Could Rowain be scum? Yeah, if for some reason the scum-nightkill was stopped / prevented and the Grognard is a sleepy SK that tried to kill him and hit Gaz. Is that likely? Only if one thinks that additionally he voted to get WK lynched. 

Basically, while I can think up scenarios, I just don't seem them. But I want to state this so that IF that tiny, tiny chance does materialize and they fooled us all, I can say "Hah, I knew it. You didn't fool me!" (but you did). Also of course the Grognard can be anyone, there is no reason to believe that neither of those 3 can be it.

2) For the following discussion, I do include myself as well and try to look at it from all angles. That is only partially possible of course, but especially when looking at odds and possibilities, it simply makes more sense to me, even though I personally know that I am town. I'm just writing this here so that I don't have to hear "Hah, you don't even consider yourself town, YOU SCUM" from someone. Even though I am pretty certain that someone will do so anyway...

With that out of the way, what is the current situation?

Adrien, Rowain, pindi - Town or Grognard
Superdeath - Power: Get someones vote back into play
Lewwyn - Power: Give someone an additional 0.1 vote but they have to rhyme
novice - Power: Unknown 
Serdoa - Power: Unknown

Lets look at me. I think the main reason to suspect me is that 
a) he voted badly twice and
b) he could fool us with all his posts

I can't change anything about the votes I did, but I believe that I explained how I reached both of these votes.
- thrawn I was suspicious at the start, then he disappeared and when he re-appeared he did not feel to me as if he was participating
- in hindsight, yes, I should have noticed that he isn't voting himself, I honestly don't think that would have made me change my vote though 
- that I skimmed his posts in 47 and 48 and found them different is something that can't be proven, but if someone actually did themselves they should see the difference (he commented on the game in those, which was a stark difference to his posts in this game)

- Gazglum I have explained in detail how I felt good on him initially and came around later.
- My vote at the end did go back to Gaz, because I had voted him before and seeing that I did gain no traction on pindi, I felt it important to coalesce on one target. I really expect some following to pindi, as several people had shown displeasure with his play and novice specifically pointed it out ("pindi-lynch is scheduled for tomorrow")

I also did give my thoughts throughout both days in detail. I didn't engage with Rowain when it became obvious on D1 that we simply disagreed what to think about my vote, I did try to defuse Lewwyn, novice and him, I did discuss with Adrien, but again, I tried to understand if there was something else at play (language barrier).

Furthermore, I did with the scroll as I was asked but still noted my different opinion. Again, as wolf, why would I? I should jump at using it, Tarkeel seemed fine with me last he was in this thread. And being reluctant sure would - and did - bring me scrutiny. 

---

Ok, with having looked at me for a start, as an interlude, lets discuss, what is even possible in terms of setup? 

Out of 4 people, we have 2 scum, 1 Grognard. So basically, whoever is voted has a 75% chance to be non-town, even if you ignore any play they did. What does that mean?

Possible combinations D3 after lynch

1) 4 town, 1 scum, 1 grognard
2) 4 town, 2 scum
3) 3 town, 2 scum, 1 grognard

Adrien already said he would use the bomb, so these evolve towards

1a) 3 town, 1 grognard -> town wins (if Grog no SK)
1b) 3 town, 1 scum
1c) 2 town, 1 scum, 1 grognard

2a) 3 town, 1 scum (similar to 1b) 
2b) 2 town, 2 scum

3a) 2 town, 1 scum, 1 grognard (similar to 1c) 
3b) 2 town, 2 scum (similar to 2b)
3c) 1 town, 2 scum, 1 grognard -> town loses (if Grog no SK)

But, we can shorten this even further. First 3c is an impossible combination. We would have to lynch whoever is town out of us 4 and then Adrien would have to bomb him and either pindi or Rowain. So we don't have to look at that combination anymore. Also several cases are similar, so we merge these together (1b+2a, 1c+3a, 2b+3b). That leaves us with just 4 combinations: 1a, 1b, 1c, 2b. 

In the night, we should assume at least 1 nightkill. I have a theory I'll share later that the Grognard could be a SK, but we'll come to that.

1a1) 3 town -> town wins
1a2) 2 town, 1 grognard -> town wins (if Grog no SK)

1b1) 2 town, 1 scum

1c1) 1 town, 1 scum, 1 grognard -> town loses 
1c2) 2 town, 1 scum (similar to 1b1)

2b1) 1 town, 2 scum -> town loses

That leaves us with 5 cases. 
1a1 in which case we win, 
1a2 which we win as well if the Grog is no SK
1b1 would leave us with 1 scum and if SD can get his power off, it would be a coin-flip (or Lew or the mysterious 0.1 power is still alive and can intervene). 
1c1 and 2b1 in which we lose

If the Grognard is a SK-type of role this does not change 1a1. 1a2 is no longer a win though, 1b1 is either a win or a loss, depending who the Grog kills, 1c1 we still lose. So, in total, that does not look all that great for us actually. Of course there is the possibility that Grog does double-up on a night-kill with the scum, but that can only happen if they both kill the same townie obviously.

That all gets more complicated if we consider that the Grognard had no reason to save WK, so there actually is no reason he could not be within Adrien, pindi, Rowain as I mentioned above. Full disclosure: When I started that, I simply operated under the assumption that they all are town, then realized at the point you see here that I have no reason to be certain of that and now I'm too stubborn to simply delete it all because it cost me an hour of my life... (but my wife is packing for her business-trip currently, so yeah, it wasn't a very good hour anyway)

---

Looking at novice
- His whole play so far is simply anti-town
- Gets in a pointless fight with Rowain but never tries to get back to scum-hunting
- Asks questions but is not really interested to follow-up on the answers
- But I admit his lynch-vote for WK also feels anti-scum
- He generally feels checked out and without allegiances to anyone

I've made a longer write-up already, I don't want to rehash that here. I do acknowledge that novice does see his statements differently than I do and there is really nothing to discuss, they are not clear-cut but all written in a wishy-washy way which of course lets him defer to whichever side is more beneficial to him. Anyhow, I would see him as our potential Grognard. 

On that note, I've thought about what our Grognard is for a role and for the following musings I assume he is a SK-type of role. So, if that is the case, what happened in the nights:

- N1: Grognard novice is sleepy and can't kill. That would make sense in a game this size
- N2: Scum tries to kill novice, because they think he can only be considered town with his late WK-vote. Furthermore Adrien already stated he won't have much time, pindi was jumping as 3rd back on and I could see how you feel you can still build a case on him and Rowain can be manipulated into being upset and abrasive, so that people don't listen. Also I'm still there to get hanged and wow, can you build a good case on my voting and my hinting that I might not be as easily killed. I would already have come up with the clear-cut case that I am the Grognard-SK, but hey, whatever. (And no, I'm not, but there is no way I would see how you can disprove being a lonely SK except that I did make cases, but then you can argue that I voted so badly to make scum dismiss me anyway).  

But novice does not die, because as Grognard-SK he has 1-time bulletproof. At the same time, novice tries to kill Rowain, because Rowain is the one confirmed townie in that scenario that novice has clashed with heavily and whom I trust to point to novice and call him out regardless of his late WK-vote. And due to Gaz protection, he is the poor sod getting solely killed on N2.

Now, is that probable? No clue. But I see hardly a reason why scum would try to kill Rowain. I can see them refraining from Adrien due to what Gaz posted. But between Rowain, pindi and novice, you choose Rowain for two reasons:

- novice is scum himself
- you don't 

Which leads to my thoughts above.

---

I think Lewwyn is next. 
- I did like Lewwyns play on D1, I found him to play mostly like I expect it, not as much hunting, but some pointed questions, engaged 
- Gets in a fight with Rowain and making his first vote for me, both classic Lewwyns
- D2 was his Gaz-case which I followed, but not much else. 
- D3 I feel that town-Lewwyn is normally much more interested to hunt scum and IIRC he claims that he only really starts on D3

I have not gone through his posts because I simply don't believe that I will find there much to change my view on him. That is: This is not town-Lewwyn. 

---

Superdeath last... I don't think this will be long either
- Mostly roleplay D1
- makes several points that seem to lack logic
- claims that he only reads the last 1 or 2 pages when he comes back to the thread, and I trust him on that
- claims a power that more or less forces us to lynch him, because if he is scum, we can't risk him getting a scum-vote back tomorrow, that would pretty much doom this village
- at the same time, claims a power that could be super strong if he is town and brings back one of us (Tarkeel best, as 100% no doubt confirmed town)

I don't know what to do here. I don't like siding with Lewwyn. Now this part is only relevant if you believe me that I am town:
Me being town means that either all other 3 (novice, Lewwyn, SD) are non-town or at least 2 of them are with the Grognard being with the "confirmed-town"-group. In the first case, I clearly have to lobby for a SD-lynch as it can't be good for town. In the second case:

a) Lewwyn is also town - which means again I should lobby for a SD-lynch (him being scum with novice for certain)
b) Lewwyn is scum with either SD -> lobby SD-lynch
c) or with novice -> lobby to NOT lynch SD

So together with the first case, in 75% of the cases I should lobby for a SD-lynch. In only 1 case should I not lobby for SD and even that IF I believe he will bring back Tarkeel and not another player that novice convinces him to in the night. I don't feel particularly good about that, especially when SD already mentions that he will come home drunk.

---

And that was it for now, that is probably already much too long, but whatever. Maybe someone has some thoughts on all these points or maybe I made somewhere a logical mistake or overlook something and pointing that out would help narrow things down.

[novice]

Serdoa, you say my play has been anti town, but still you see no reason why scum would kill Rowain over me?

I too struggle with what to do about Superdeath’s claim. The tie breaking abilities could be crucial in many scenarios to further complicate things. I don’t think I will attempt to analyze it to death, I’ll just try to vote the most likely scum.

[Serdoa]

I'm a one shot redirector. I use my shield to redirect actions targeted at one player onto another player. I used it N2 to redirect actions targeted at Lewwyn onto Superdeath. It's breadcrumbed here.

[quote="Gazglum" pid="759790" dateline="1604057852"Lew try to pin everything on Superdeath. 

Ok, first let me say: This is ridiculous. Funny, but ridiculous.

My reasoning was to try to redirect a night kill onto Superdeath. I thought scum might prioritize getting a kill through over anything else and possibly avoid the WK voters. Too clever by half, I suppose. Lewwyn had just dropped the rhyming and seemed to be gearing up, so I thought scum might take him out if he's town. Also, by not targeting a WK voter I wouldn't interfere with the bodyguarding.

That seems like a good story. But the chance that scum would not take out one of the confirmed-town players seems far-fetched. That is to say:

--- As stated several times: Our powers have been rolled before alignment so they themselves don't tell us anything. Your usage, while cleverly worded, isn't indicative of you being town either. You might be, you might the Grognard, you might even be scum. What you've done is funnily enough exactly skating the lines of being good for no one.

But also, there was no reason to even not redirect on Adrien, Rowain, pindi, the most likely to be killed. If Gaz does protect the same you are redirecting and that player gets killed -> protection and redirection on the new target, ergo no nightkill at all (except Gaz). If you instead redirect on someone Gaz is not protecting -> nightkill on SD instead of one of the "town"-people and Gaz still alive.

So, there really was no reason not to redirect on any of the town-players. Choosing Lewwyn was the move that you either choose as scum (but unlikely) or as Grognard who wants to move the game forward (winning either when one side wins or when all are dead / it is 1 vs 1 with them still alive).

[novice]

But also, there was no reason to even not redirect on Adrien, Rowain, pindi, the most likely to be killed. If Gaz does protect the same you are redirecting and that player gets killed -> protection and redirection on the new target, ergo no nightkill at all (except Gaz). If you instead redirect on someone Gaz is not protecting -> nightkill on SD instead of one of the "town"-people and Gaz still alive.

I view Superdeath dying as a much better outcome than Gaz dying, which is again a better outcome than Adrien, Rowain or Pindi dying. My action improved our overall chances of a favourable outcome.