[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[timski]

Commodore

It appears Commodore moved his warrior out of the capital. (minimum power did not decrease) Is he quitting? So long old friend.

Commodore has a road SW of their capital, potentially allowing them to 2-move out and either in again the following turn, or attack Kyan's Warrior. Commodore could easily have another Warrior whipped this turn, allowing them to risk the lure on an attack. Ideally they'd whip overflow into an Archer - they must be about to tech Archery - and after that Archer, all bets are off. I truly hope they are trying to lure Kyan into the open again, to get a decisive kill. That would be an interesting play, since they must have decent odds on Kyan's 1.3/2 Veteran. I will be very disappointed if Commodore throws the game by giving their capital to Kyan. That's not the Commodore I knew. If I'm seeing a way back into the game for them, hopefully they are too.

Kyan

Will need some demos to figure out what's going on with Kyan just now. Evidently I'm still wrong about their tech path. It erks me that I could miss Mysticism, given how sensitive that tech was to Stonehenge.

We can be sure the Buddha is in Kyan's second city, likely the one with Flood Plains and commerce. Kyan is setting themselves up beautifully for the long-term. With so much sea, their religion will ultimately (Sailing and secondary ports) spread fast to everyone, in spite of closed borders. With Aggressive and extra happiness now, and Shrine income later, Kyan will be a serious threat throughout the game.

Added: Kyan's techs still make some sense if Mysticism was discovered T18. Maybe the position of their Copper is a little different, and their second city needed to open with a Monument? Sometime after that, Meditation for religion is good long-term, as described above. They perhaps judged that we needed the 'Henge more than religion, and Dazed needed an economy more than either. So they felt able to try for Meditation after getting Animal Husbandry and the Wheel.

Now, they may also be planning to chop the Oracle out for Metal Casting. I mused on this earlier:

• Forges are strong here, with both happiness and production (assuming somewhat mirrored starts).
  
• Metal Casting is one big step closer to the Maces era, and more than repays the 1-tech diversion to Priesthood. They should have plenty of time to grab Pottery after Priesthood.
  
• With Commodore evidently struggling, their rival's Industrious shouldn't be a factor. They know we aren't going to beat them to the Oracle - we're behind on relevant tech and have already invested heavily in Stonehenge.
  
• Kyan wil be well placed to build the Colossus later, which will ultimately yield a decent financial bonus, although probably not as good as the Great Lighthouse.

If Kyan was going to Axe rush Commodore, surely now is the time? And if so, where are the Axe builds? Otherwise they'll make the same calculation as us - once Commodore gets Archery, they will be able to pump Archers out fast enough to bounce a rush. Commodore would only be at risk if both Kyan and ourselves rushed - almost a variation on the classic Prisoner's Dilemma - neither will do it because neither will do it.

Maybe Kyan hasn't decided, and is keeping their options open. But if I'm correct, then: (1) Any military action Kyan might have been planning is muted - early Wonders and early rushes don't mix. (2) The path is clearer for us to try for the Great Lighthouse.

I know we're close to seeing GingerEagle's graphs, but right now perhaps we should be considering Kyan's graphs? Kyan is in a clear 2nd place, and I suspect our main rival now.

GingerEagle

Based on the T29/T30 screenshots, GingerEagle's first attack against Dazed succeeded, which must have been at low odds (onto forest hill). Only Vince Hilaire is missing, presumably on the fogged tile where Dazed stood, having scored their 30th goal for the Eagles. Not that GingerEagle was taking any chances. They built a Warrior in Selhurst park on T30, the third Warrior added to their empire in as many turns. For all the rather uncomplimentary comments we've made about GingerEagle's play style prior, I agree, GingerEagle certainly knows how to react to a choking Warrior.

GingerEagle now has so many Warriors I wouldn't be surprised if they chase Koopa across the map. Tactically that would be terrible, since Dazed could turn up again soon. But after Selhurst Park, it's worth having that Axe ready.

Not sure why their Worker didn't do anything on T30. I guess they are waiting for Koopa to leave, before moving to the Copper, and have nothing useful to do in the meantime, apparently not even pre-chop. And therefore GingerEagle is rating Copper more highly than roading to Selhurst Park. Still, one Worker needs 3 turns of mine and 2 turns of road to get Copper in the capital, so Phalanx are still a while away. With the 'Henge gone, that gives GingerEagle a window in which to complete their Granary.

Win Button

Plako and the lurkers, take heart: the game may well balance itself right now.

Agreed. At T30, everyone is still vulnerable on this map. If Kyan were to take Commodore's city now, they'd have 1 capital city more than us, and we'd have Aggressive Kyan on our border, roughly 7-8 Chariot turns away. 3 extra Workers aren't going to be such a game-changer if Kyan then comes straight for us. Even if Commodre is bluffing, the game is far from over. These close starts continue to be extra-dangerous for a good 10 or 20 turns yet.

What I didn't make fully clear before was my objection to discussing the situation with other players, so let me do that now:

At the moment, we are doing well partly because we're reading the metagame fairly accurately. We have just 2 Warriors (masterfully deployed by Ceiliazul, but still only 2), because we have a good idea what the opposition has, and where it has it. We delayed the 'Henge for a Settler, because we knew nobody else was going to complete that Wonder in time. In the near future, it will be very important to us that GingerEagle is getting bogged down in the west, so we don't have to counter against them immediately. If you read back to the start of this thread, you'll find that very discussion - avoiding early contact with GingerEagle, hoping to push them towards Dazed.

Good information and quasi-diplomacy is key to a successful always war game. Up there with low-hammer early choking and economy-before-campaigning.

So if it is reavealed that "we have won" - or any explanation to that effect - and the game continues, with the sole consequenceof setting us up for a huge dogpile. That's worse than a diplomacy game, because the players don't even have to work anything out for themselves.

In the interim, I'm not enjoying the Sword of Damocles. Dionysius was right.

[Ceiliazul]

I will be very disappointed if Commodore throws the game by giving their capital to Kyan. That's not the Commodore I knew.

If I thought Commodore wuld quit, I would have rushed Goomba into the capital 3t ago at 0.8 health. The proof is in the pudding, however: if his warrior makes it back to the capital (what was so important to give up the fortify bonus? Horse?) And whips something in the capital, then all is well.

Will need some demos to figure out what's going on with Kyan just now. Evidently I'm still wrong about their tech path. It erks me that I could miss Mysticism, given how sensitive that tech was to Stonehenge.

It's getting tough, but I'm certain they teched Myst-Med in order. Kyan is a high level player, he wouldn't have delayed with a settler on the way. I appreciate your efforts though! here's a consolation prize: GE graphs in 2t (then swap EP to Kyan). It's worth noting that GE is putting ALL EP against us. Bad sign, that.

With so much sea, their religion will ultimately (Sailing and secondary ports) spread fast to everyone, in spite of closed borders. With Aggressive and extra happiness now, and Shrine income later, Kyan will be a serious threat throughout the game.

I don't understand this. How does sea make a difference? How can religion spread at all in always war?

Added: Kyan's techs still make some sense if Mysticism was discovered T18.

Nope. I'll bet a cookie they teched myst-med in order. Also, they appear to be working the silver, their tech pace is aweful fast.

Now, they may also be planning to chop the Oracle out for Metal Casting. I mused on this earlier:

• Forges are strong here, with both happiness and production (assuming somewhat mirrored starts).
  
• Kyan wil be well placed to build the Colossus later, which will ultimately yield a decent financial bonus, although probably not as good as the Great Lighthouse.

He can have it. Tech is going to fly on this map, 1 free tech is worth much less than it would normally be. I'll take a settler/worker pair instead, thanks. We'll get MC the old fashioned way, and keep that expansion advantage cranking.

Maybe Kyan hasn't decided, and is keeping their options open. But if I'm correct, then: (1) Any military action Kyan might have been planning is muted - early Wonders and early rushes don't mix. (2) The path is clearer for us to try for the Great Lighthouse.

GE is our prmary competitor, I imagine. By virtue of his Arboria start, he can chop it before we have a prayer. He's also got to start whipping soon, but that should be spent on a settler for FP... or horse.

Based on the T29/T30 screenshots, GingerEagle's first attack against Dazed succeeded, which must have been at low odds (onto forest hill).
...
GingerEagle now has so many Warriors I wouldn't be surprised if they chase Koopa across the map. Tactically that would be terrible, since Dazed could turn up again soon. But after Selhurst Park, it's worth having that Axe ready.

That's why Koopa got the eff outta there. GE has a temporary advantage, and I need to again rush to secure my choke. Also, no whipping was needed for warrior-per-turn: silver/plhill(mine)/forest are good enough for 1t warriors. He could have kept working the deer/rice too!

Not sure why their Worker didn't do anything on T30. I guess they are waiting for Koopa to leave, before moving to the Copper, and have nothing useful to do in the meantime, apparently not even pre-chop.

He is almost certainly pushing 'cancel' on the worker each turn. The forest hill road apeared 1t after I saw him squatting... can't trust what you see there.

If Kyan were to take Commodore's city now, they'd have 1 capital city more than us, and we'd have Aggressive Kyan on our border, roughly 7-8 Chariot turns away. 3 extra Workers aren't going to be such a game-changer if Kyan then comes straight for us.

There has been no lurker activity since Plako's post. Perhaps everyone is waiting to see what happens with Comm's Capital? In any case, we play on!

[timski]

what was so important to give up the fortify bonus?

It's a simple lure. (I'm assuming Commodore has 2 road tiles west-south-west, which take their Warrior out of Kyan's view this turn.) If Commodore loses the Deer they are screwed. If they let Kyan's Veteran regain health, they are screwed. But if they can either destroy, or severely damage Kyan's veteran, (or even just force it to keep walking back and forth) they live to fight another few turns. Commodore's back is to the wall: Nothing much to lose, but something to gain. If they can whip another Warrior in this turn, they'll have something to counter Goomba (at reasonable odds, even unfortified) and/or something to fall back on should Kyan's Warrior survive. By my reckoning they are 1 turn off Archery. All they need to do is survive another 2 turns, and they'll hold their ground.

On Kyan, I agree that the order of Mysticism is curious. Note that around T17/18 Kyan is apparently forced to whip out Warriors to counter Dazed, so Kyan's gameplan might have got wildly off-track, diverting a whip from a planned early Settler into Warriors? Certainly more likely Bronze->Wheel->Animal Husbandry->Mysticism->Meditation, and some way of balancing those I've missed.

How does sea make a difference? How can religion spread at all in always war?

As I understand it (please correct me) religion spreads using the same trade network mechanics as normal trade routes, except does not require Open Borders to use those networks, as trade itself does. In always war, players may be slow to create road connections to their neighbours, but with Sailing and (non-Ice-blocked) second ports, religions should spread freely over the sea to the many expected coastal cities.

Added:

It's worth noting that GE is putting ALL EP against us. Bad sign, that.

Agreed, but if they met Dazed early, they already have Daze's graphs, and we simply become the second target by virtue of being the other neighbour.

[timski]

On Commodore, as a new post, since this could be very important:

If one of Kyan and Goomba did take a shot at Commodore's lone-Warrior capital, there's a high risk of failing, and letting the other rival take the city. Goomba can no longer see Kyan's Veteran and vice-versa. So Commodore could play a psychological game, in which none attacks the lone Warrior: The risk is no longer 10 hammers, rather it's the risk of opponent gaining a capital. More likely, given Goomba's move, Commodore will finish with 2 Warriors in their capital. A shot at Kyan would have only been certain if Goomba had stayed away. Kyan's 1.3/2 looks like it had run from Commodore's single Warrior turns before, so will not remain on the Deer when if it sees 2 Warriors in the capital. So Commodore gains another turn of Deer, while Kyan's Veteran remains damaged for 2 turns longer. Meanwhile Goomba will presumably be forced back to the trees for the same reason as Kyan. Ping-Pong!

As I see it, Commodore has all their bases covered. They'll only fail if their optimism gets the better of them, and they decide to kill Kyan's Veteran. If you can confirm such a kill via C&D, Goomba could take a shot at the capital without risking it to Kyan. However, since Kyan's death would mean Commodore had a Warrior just outside their capital, Goomba may not be able to hold the capital for a full turn - at that point it all becomes highly random, determined by relative damage in prior battles**.

** Edit: Erm, except that this is Commodre's last city, so their Warrior outside would disappear. Duh. So if Goomba is looking at a sole Warrior capital, the risk is C&D. It should be easy to spot from Commodore's power changes - if they net lost a Warrior, Kyan is still very much alive. In that case we're back to the original psychological problem: If we attack the capital and fail, Kyan grabs it at the next opportunity.

(Bit late now, and I entirely see why you did it, but it follows that we could have done more damage to Kyan by not moving on Commodre's capital...)

(And if Commodore has thought this out like that, . I think Commodore has "played a blinder" here. All credit to them.)

[Ceiliazul]

A Tale of Two Chokes

I think Commodore has "played a blinder" here. All credit to them.)

Yeah, just like we did Comm a favor by killing the worker stack. We have limited information from our view, but we have seen both GE and Commodore deal with double-choke attacks. GE responded by building a ton of warriors and overrunning the attackers. (Even turning the tables and causing Koopa to run to defend our own empire!) Commodore responded by trickling warriors, building settlers while under siege, placing civilians in harms way, and (soon) dying.

The mark of Sulla is on this site: we all play high-risk, high-reward around here. I understand that Commodore chose not to halt his expansion, and hope for good dice rolls to save him. "Better a quick death than a slow defeat," and all that. ...but Commodore will soon be dead.

GingerEagle's city placement evokes sandcastles at low tide, but he has demonstrated tactically the correct response to a choke: KILL IT NOW! Two opponents poking near your copper? Build nothing but warriors until the attackers are all dead, or running in fear! KILL IT NOW! ...and resume your expansion later. GingerEagle, well done. He apparently won single combat against a fortified forest-hill warrior, but he had plenty of backup so don't tell me he depended on luck.

He not only cleared the choke, his craptacular 2nd city popped Hindu this turn and will soon be gaining 40% cultural defense. GE likely has 3 warriors in Selhurst Park, and 3-4 more rushing toward MY choke!

Ginger Eagle, nicely done! For the moment your borders are the most secure in the world!

On To The Turn

GE's Vince Hillaire is now a shock veteran, and is racing my Koopa to the safety of the fur tile. I have already moved for this turn, you can see I will not make it. Koopa will instead turn North and explore the Greek Spit. With any luck, he'll find a defensible hill to fortify until I can ferry him back to our lands.



Commodore's warrior suicided against Kyan's, bringing him down to 0.7/2. Also Comodore finished a fresh warrior in his capital, which Goomba only has 4% chance to kill... we need axes.

Kyan has no doubt realized this as well, and so it will likely be a foot race. Our build plan was to whip a settler in Mario, but 2 axes would be better. I think we'll win the foot race by virtue of better roads: our workers will pave the way all the way to the Comodore's land and speed the axes.

On the home front, 4 workers farmed the rice this turn. In the next 2 turns they'll cottage a riverside grass and then pasture the cow. Those are the South worker corps. The North worker corps will be roading to the North coast in defensible fashion. City 3 and city 4 must now secure the chokes (red dots can wait!)

Scout found the first (likely) island! We need a name for scout.



[img] http://db.tt/sk6QlnDr[/img]

[timski]

I'm not clear what's going on with tech or power or population or anything at all now, since I haven't seen any demos for several turns, which is making it hard for me to read the game beyond the screenshots. I may have been a bit wrong, but hopefully not so wrong as to have become a liability**.

So Commodore's optimism did get the better of them by attacking Kyan with Goomba also outside? Or they're not thinking it through, and I was completely wrong again? Commodore would be getting 11 gold per turn regardless of tiles occupied (Fish, Palace, Capital), and Archery is a 56 Beaker tech, with no neighbour bonuses. Turn 32 was 5 turns since their previous tech (probably Agriculture), so if they didn't get it this turn, either they were unlucky on having no overflow from before, and if so one turn on the inland water would have fixed that, or...? I felt sure they'd whip overflow into an Archer, and the lure was just going to buy them the extra 2 turns they needed to stay alive . Kyan's Veteran will soon be Elite, ever more invulnerable each time Commodore suicides one Warrior at time on it.

At least I got GingerEagle's Mysticism right. Selhurst Park with Hinduism is the best worst city in the world! Craptacular indeed. Was early religious spread the reason they wanted a coastal site so badly? Won't matter till Sailing, regardless.

3-4 Warriors rushing our choke sounds more like a minor invasion. I'm starting to characterise GingerEagle as the Zerg player, who just needs to learn more about Civ empire management. Could be dangerously unpredictable with Phalanx, which we can really only counter with more Axes. Sending Koopa north is an excellent idea. At worst they'll lure a Warrior or 2 they probably weren't going to kill anyway away from our borders, while getting some excellent scouting done. We know there's a good 8-10 moves along that spit, so it GingerEagle does take the bait, they've lost whatever they send for 20 turns.

With later Libraries, we're practically guaranteed a Great Prophet out of Mario Bros, so should still get a chance to bulb one of the later religions.

All in all, I'm in complete agreement on the need for serious Axe building! If GingerEagle doesn't come for us, Commodore is worth a shot. I agree we have one advantage on Kyan: Roads. We're only a few worker turns away from having a road built up to Commodore's front gate. That not only allows us to get an invasion stack in 2+ turns quicker but to support Enclave of Bear with our Copper the moment we take it. We also have Granaries, which I'm pretty sure Kyan does not, so can crack the whip twice as hard if needed. The wildcard is that Kyan may now have the ability to build Chariots - that depends on the Horse location. Worth keeping that in mind, especially if we do take the city. With Animal Husbandry coming up, we should be able to judge whether that's a realistic possibiity.

C2 (NE hill city) site isn't exactly drowning in seafood. Could still be a decent Moai site, we will not be lacking in potential Moai sites. Meanwhile, with GingerEagle's recent moves, the probability of us blocking their choke with a city at B1 (far NW city site) is dropping by the turn. I think that means we need to skip the northern red site, and instead plan for B2 as the first northern city, perhaps taking B1 if GingerEagle is very slow? Both benefit from accompanying Iron Working. No objections to the revised eastern red site though. If we were to need a reasonable defensive site against any Kyan-owned Enclave of Bear, we would be able to steal something around Fort Knox (Commodore's old Copper site).

What's the tech plan next? Archery, Sailing, Iron Working, Writing? Not Writing. Gut feeling is (unsurprisingly) Archery. But if we're going for Axes now, we gain little from Archery immediately, and have build queues filled wit units. So instead we can set ourselves up for either the Great Lighthouse (Sailing) or expansion (Iron Working)?

Will try and sim a little later...

(** I appreciate that bad information is more negative than good information is positive.)

[timski]

Micro Ideas

These aren't detailed turn-by-turn, and can probably be fine-tuned, but are all moving roughly towards your objectives. I've also put in some thoughts on timescales for the Great Lighthouse and tech at the bottom, because that influences how heavily we whip Mario Bros (MB) now, and what sort of tech and Worker priority we may need:

For the benefit of anyone else reading, the current aims, in order:

• 2 Axes to Commodore
  
• Settle "Fort Knox" (Commodore's Flood Plain/Copper)
  
• 2 Axes to choke GingerEagle
  
• Settle the north (ideally B1)

Workers

I liked your proposed opening road/Cow micro: 2 Workers road 1SW of DH, 1 putting a turn into a Cottage 1NE of MB, then all 3 Workers Pasture the Cow on border expansion, then 2 move south to complete the road. Very neatly timed.

The Worker that has just roaded 2N of MB, can immediately road 1N of MB's Rice, thus saving the GE choke Axe a turn moving up. Or road the desert 1NW of MB's Rice, if you'd rather get a neat diagonal to the B1 (GingerEagle choke city) site. On your initial plan, I don't see the Rice is urgent enough to require both Workers, since MB is working Hammers into the Axe until T36, the turn that one Worker cold complete the Rice.

May also need to revisit the early Mine-chop of the forest plains hill. We may be able to get the second settler comes out of DH, rather than MB, and save the chop for the Great Lighthouse.

Duck Hunt

Whipping DH on T34 allows regrowth to 2 immediately, while working the new Cows. On T33, simply work the Rice and FP Cottage. Whipping on T34 starts building (and therefore losing) whip anger earlier, and gets 2 Axes down to Commodore T39/T40, which is tactically more useful than 2 Axes 2 turns apart. I'm doubtful that 2 will be enough, but I'm prepared to trust you on this one. I see no benefit to slow-building the first Axe at DH, but waiting one turn means we don't lose population on a T33 whip.

I'll assume DH is whipped on T34 as above, followed by a second Axe. The detail beyond that depends on what follows subsequently, and how urgent that becomes. If it's a Settler (or maybe a Worker), or we feel somewhat safe for the moment, but maybe not in 5 turns, grow up to size 4 on an Axe and something. Axe alone completes too fast. Queued Scout them Axe works (Rice and Cow, then Copper at size 3), if you want the Scout (and if you don't it decays anyway). Better is a pair of Axes completing T37 and T38 - consider the fifth Axe as insurance against bad rolls - work Rice and cow, then add Copper at size 3, plus a chop on the final turn of the first Axe (first ex-Cow Worker), overflowing to the second, overflowing into...

The beauty of DH at size 4 is we should be able to subsequently whip 2 Axes in 2 turns if battles are going badly (watch the overflows carefully), or be in a strong position to produce a Settler (or Worker) if battles are going well.

If we assume a Settler next, a secong chop overflows from the third Axe (chop 2E of DH, using the second Worker to be freed from roading south), and the Settler can be 2-pop whipped T40, out on T41, which is faster than MB can produce a second Settler. DH could follow with a 1 turn Archer or Axe if needed.

Added: If we didn't want the third extra Axe, a Barracks could perhaps be queued instead, but we'd need to make sure the second chop went into the Settler, so queuing wold need to be very carefully managed.

Mario Bros

On your initial plan for MB - whip first Axe, hammer-build second Axe while growing to size 4 - the following Settler can be 2-pop whipped on T38, out on T39. And in that case, the Mine-chop can be single-staffed, for movement efficiency (I dislike putting 2 Workers on a hill or forest), and goes directly into the next build. Or is ignored now, and saved for the Great Lighthouse.

An alternative option at MB after the first T33 Axe whip: Work food T34, T35 growing to size 4 and whip, instantly growing back to 4, and overflowing into a Settler. MB is red hot with whip anger, but there's only 1 turn of unhappiness if the Axe moves straight out. Settler on T40 and the Axe is still out for T36.

That balance primarily depends on what we do thereafter: For example, if we're trying Axe-Axe-Settler-Settler from MB, the alternative option may be a better, since we go into the second Settler with 4 population. However, if DH produces the northern Settler instead, we can follow with a Worker in 2 turns, or grow on say, another Axe, or... Lighthouse. In that later case, the 2-pop whip of the Settler is a vastly more efficient way of managing limited happiness.

Great Lighthouse and Tech

Now something of a diversion, but relevant to the above Mario Bros balance and upcoming tech choice:

Lighthouse after Settler in MB would need Sailing after Animal Husbandry. Asume the initial MB plan (including 2-pop whipping the Settler on T38), I'd look to grow back on the Lighthouse, maybe 2-pop whipping that T41, re-growing to size 3, overflow into a 4-turn Worker, single-whipped at the end into... the Great Lighthouse?

The GLH can use the remaining mine-chop, but will still need as many mines at MB as we can muster in the meantime. Max hammers at MB total 15 with current technology. But only at size 6, with no whip anger, Silver connected, and a garrison... so likely we'd start closer to 10 hammers. With overflow and chop, that's still a 10 turn build - GLH not much before T55.

The Great Lighthouse on this timescale forces us to tech Sailing->something small like Archery->Masonary. Which is going to cripple rapid expansion, because Iron Working becomes a T55 tech that we need 10 turns earlier to clear the Pig Pasture. Add in insufficient Workers (I belatedly agree), and happiness restrictions, and it makes more sense to delay the GLH a little.

Iron Working before GLH means we can get Gem happiness, plus extra time for Worker(s) and consequently mine improvements at MB, and subsequently build the Great Lighthouse quicker. Ergo Iron Working early (maybe even after AH) has a fairly minor impact on the GLH completion date, while not gimping our expansion in the north. I'm not even convinced early Sailing (and Lighthouse) is so urgent either: The "free farms" aren't relevant until we have happiness to grow into, so the short-term benefit is one slice of bread in MB, at the cost of 40 hammers.

Archery is only 3 turns, hopefully (or maybe not) with a neighbour bonus from Commodore, vs 10 turns for Iron Working. So a quick Archery might still be an option, just to cover us against bad rolls, but is still a hard sell.

Sidetracked, slightly, but it is useful to be mapping out the limitations in later turns, not just microing the now.

Summary

Assuming Mario Bros builds Axe-Axe-Settler (whipped T33, slow, 2-pop whipped T37), and Duck Hunt builds Axe-Axe-Axe-Settler (whipped T34, slow/chop, chop, 2-pop whipped T40), and assuming obvious roads and Worker micro, we get:

• 2 Axes to Commodore - T39 and T40 attack
  
• Settle "Fort Knox" - T41
  
• 2 Axes to choke GingerEagle - T39 and T41 on the forest Beaver
  
• Settle B1 - T42

Plus a bonus Axe, while preserving the Mine-chop at MB for the Great Lighthouse. If we wanted MB to finish the Settler at size 4, Fort Knox is delayed 1 turn. There may be scope for tidying up on overflows and such. On those timing, we can afford no delay in Iron Working, since B1 will already be settled before the Pig jungle can be cleared. The extra Axe makes that decision easier.

[Ceiliazul]

So Commodore's optimism did get the better of them by attacking Kyan with Goomba also outside? Or they're not thinking it through, and I was completely wrong again?
...
Kyan's Veteran will soon be Elite, ever more invulnerable each time Commodore suicides one Warrior at time on it

Yes you were wrong: Commodore teched Meditation. Really! Well, someone did on t32 anyway (after Buddha had fallen) and he's got to be the only one that checked out of the game. You're right about this though: Comm needs to stop feeding that green monster!

Full demo dump soon, but it's getting really murky really fast.

At least I got GingerEagle's Mysticism right. Selhurst Park with Hinduism is the best worst city in the world! Craptacular indeed. Was early religious spread the reason they wanted a coastal site so badly? Won't matter till Sailing, regardless.

I haven't checked on the Wartime spread of religions lately. Before BTS it was impossible, I'm almost sure. BTS was the "if it ain't broke, fix it" mod, so that may have changed.

Sailing first, for a GLH run. If the sitrep in 5 turns gves us enough security to try the wonder, we'll go for it in MB. After that, IW, archery, writing, in some order. Archery for cheap MPs if nothing else!

3-4 Warriors rushing our choke sounds more like a minor invasion. I'm starting to characterise GingerEagle as the Zerg player

That's worst case scenario. I think we'll be safe with 1 axe on the fur tile for a bit. If he does invade, we get at least that much warning. Mario's 2nd axe will head that way, sealing the choke on ~t42.

GE made a great play to stuff the attack, but he still shows no talent for empire management. He still hasn't whipped even once.

Commodore is worth a shot. I agree we have one advantage on Kyan: Roads. We're only a few worker turns away from having a road built up to Commodore's front gate. That not only allows us to get an invasion stack in 2+ turns quicker but to support Enclave of Bear with our Copper the moment we take it.
...
Kyan may now have the ability to build Chariots - that depends on the Horse location. Worth keeping that in mind, especially if we do take the city.

Commodore is cooked. If I'm right that they teched Med (and really, who else would have?) Then he's just marking time. Full demo analysis later, but he whipped a warrior last turn after ~6 turns of no army and *no growth*! That suggests a worker or settler... and confirms he has totally checked out.

Whoever takes the Japan city first has a large advantage in keeping it, of course. I think we have the better road netwoek, but we know that Commodore's rod goes South at least 2 tiles... Kyan could shake loose a worker to finish it. However we want a worker down there anyway because the next settler IS going to Fort Knox!

[timski]

Commodore teched Meditation. Really! Well, someone did on t32 ...

That would require Commodore to have Mysticism as their T27 tech, and to have whipped down to size 1 (and stayed there), since they haven't scored recently. The only other possibility is Dazed. But why, with Buddhism gone 2 turns before, and no religion of their own. Another candidate for the Oracle? Was it so close they couldn't be bothered to change? Didn't notice their arch rival founded Buddhism? Doesn't make any sense for anyone. Please confirm Commodore's T32 population.

Commodore built and lost a Warrior on T30 (as well as T32) - I'm almost certain they suicided the first against Kyan's Veteran, which caused Kyan to retreat for one turn. They likely started a Worker before - that was the Agriculture theory: They could "expect" to improve the Rice so long as Goomba didn't advance into their first ring. They presumably didn't expect Kyan to wander in. I still refuse to believe Commodore teched Meditation in their current situation. And if they'd checked out, they would have left their city empty, and denied Kyan XP. I'm not counting this chicken until it is hatched.

On religions:

"Trade Network connected means almost what it sounds like; there must be a connection between the converted city and the holy city - that is, the cities must be part of the same plot group. Plot groups are determined by explicit routes (roads, railroads), and terrain routes (oceans, rivers, coastline). These latter types depend on which technologies have been discovered by the owner(s) of the cities. Why almost? Because cities can connect through a closed border." - http://www.civfanatics.com/civ4/strategy/religions.php

[Ceiliazul]

I still refuse to believe Commodore teched Meditation in their current situation. And if they'd checked out, they would have left their city empty, and denied Kyan XP. I'm not counting this chicken until it is hatched.

Always wise advice. I'll check out your plan to whip DH before playing next turn. That city has so many power tiles that it pains me to not work them. ...but not as painful as Kyan winning Bear.

Commodore did whip on t32, for the record, keeping score flat requires a tech. It was definitely a powerless tech, so agriculture could fit the numbers. Meditation got a gnp boost last turn, so we know at least 2 teams have the tech. Three religion techs in 3 turns... yeah they can fight over the Oracle all they want. May they all beeline Priesthood!

Huge demo update coming soon. GNP scrying, City sizes, the works.