A Challenger Appears!

[Tankra]

Yeah, we'll see how his techs progress. With any luck, he'll go directly for AH to improve his sheep before his deer, which would place me in a better position to not be confronted by archers. But I think that my Dogs and the proximity of our capitals combined with the fact that he's on flatlands just gives me an advantage that I'd be a fool not to try and press.

Will certainly have to keep it in mind, at least.

[Tankra]

Alright, not much happened this turn, but I did find out a few things:



(Sorry about the image quality, I'm on my small laptop right now)

First of all, there are fish (lake fish, to be precise) in the North, which makes the North a pretty good candidate for expansion for me. Especially if the strategic resources are to the North, which I would be willing to bet is the case. Secondly, TheStick's score rose this turn, due to completing his research of Hunting. I know it's Hunting and not Fishing due to the fact that the demographics show someone will 8000 soldiers. This can only be him with The Wheel (4k), his starting Warrior (2k) and Hunting (2k).

On the one hand, this brings him closer to archery, but on the other hand, it's a pretty bad move, IMO. He starts with The Wheel and Agriculture, which means he can already improve the wheat tile in the capital, which is better than the deer tile. Why go for Hunting, then, when he could have gone for Mining/BW and gotten chops up quicker? It's not like he needs Hunting first is my point here.

I'm feeling optimistic about the rush, then. On what turn does a non-CRE civ get their second capital culture pop, again?

[CFCJesterFool]

I wouldn't be surprised if he goes AH next (actually called it). Copper does him absolutely no good (Dogs > axes). Just conjecture though...maybe he just wants to improve the food specials first.

Btw, check your email.

[Tankra]

I would be extremely happy if he were to go AH next, because that would greatly reduce his chances of successfully defending against a Dog rush. My hypothesis is that if he doesn't directly research BW and Archery before AH, he'll be supremely vulnerable to my attacks.

The premises/assumptions (backed up by simulations) to my argument are that:

1) No horses will be in the capital's BFC.

2) Related to number 1), it will be impossible for him to hook up horses to his capital before I get to him. I can then pillage any roads he's attempting to build.

3) The fastest he can get BW now that he has Hunting is at t18, maybe t17 due to the known opponent beaker bonus. After that, he needs until t21 to get Archery, t22 if he converts to slavery.

4) If, instead of going directly for BW and Archery, he decides to go for AH at any point before those two techs, he'll reach BW + Archery + Slavery at t30.

5) The fastest I can get my Dogs are #1 on t17, #2 on t20 and #3 on t22. Given a 10 turn travel distance between our capitals, that means earliest siege times of t27, t30 or t32.

Conclusion: My first Dog Soldier can therefore get to his capital before Archergeddon™ if and only if he researches Animal Husbandry at any point before either BW or Archery. The lone Dog Soldier would then have pretty good odds of making TheStick go:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=He82NBjJqf8

All that for a very minimal hammer investment. If the Solider fails, well, at least TheStick will be scared out of his mind for a few turns and will doubtlessly expend more effort than me. If he succeeds, well, I just got a very, very cheap settler :D

---

That leads us with two big plans for rushing:

Plan A: The lone alpha dog. Basically what I described above. Works best if he researches AH. Assuming he does everything else right, this plan has a large chance of succeeding.

Plan B: The wolf pack. Otherwise known as "all-in". I would attack with 2-3 Dogs instead of just 1, but would be a few key turns slower with my attack. According to my reading of the matter, this plan would only work if he makes multiple mistakes. In other words, it requires him to do something a bit stupid.

What qualifies as a mistake, you might ask? Well, a pretty large amount of things can qualify. I guess we'll just have to read the C&D and figure it out.

So, my dear lurkers, what do you think of Plan A? Are you convinced of its likelihood of success, given his researching AH?

[Ceiliazul]

Plan A: The lone alpha dog. Basically what I described above. Works best if he researches AH. Assuming he does everything else right, this plan has a large chance of succeeding.

I wouldn't trust one dog to hold the city even if you can take it. Not only do you rely on the fickle dice, but it wouldn't be too shocking if others had offense in the area as well. What if you dog took damage, captured the city, and found a third-party attack force just 1-2 tiles away.

Plan B: The wolf pack. Otherwise known as "all-in". I would attack with 2-3 Dogs instead of just 1, but would be a few key turns slower with my attack. According to my reading of the matter, this plan would only work if he makes multiple mistakes. In other words, it requires him to do something a bit stupid.

Go big or go home. If you manage to attack and hold TheStick's capital, the space between your two cities is a backlines that no one else can match. I expect early blood regardless on this crazy map, so might as well do your best to ensure it's someone elses. At least 2 dogs is my recommendation.

BIG caveat:

You'll need at least 1 dog for defense back home. Or a warrior sentry fortified to see approaches from your East. Do we know who's there yet?

Also, don't assume no horse. Even tho the capital is crazy-town resource heavy, it is common to give each player a "safe" strategic resource. On this map, there ain't much "safe" except the capital. You could be right, but be alert.

[Tankra]

What about the first Dog going out alone, quickly followed by a second and perhaps third? It's a sort of half-way between the two different "Plans."

[CFCJesterFool]

I think sending out 2 dogs followed by a third makes it more likely he makes a mistake. Until he scouts you, highly unlikely he has more than one defender. If his scout appears, then choking with the first dog okay while waiting for 2nd and third. If the first time he sees you is when you have 2 dogs in his face...well that's too late. RIP.

[Ceiliazul]

Don't forget the metagame in the case where you successfully take out TheStick. You can count on chariots headed your way from both adjacent opponents.

If you have 2 blobs, an your other opponents have one, you're instant enemy to everyone. I say this because you're going to need more than 3 dogs in the immediate aftermath of the war. More will be determined when you reveal copper and horse.

[Tankra]

Yeah, no doubt. If I get his city, I'll have a big target on my forehead. But that is far into the future and still hypothetical at this point. For now, I'll focus on the rush itself.

[Tankra]

Just a quick update. Not much has happened since last time. Nicolae has gone up in score and in soldiers on T4, so that can only mean a three turn Hunting research. Probably he's going Animal Husbandry as well. Same strange choice as thestick (Ottomans - The Wheel, Agriculture). In his shoes, with China (Mining, Agriculture), I would have totally gone Bronze Working.

Maybe I just have a bias towards BW first.

At the end of T5 I completed Mining, moving on to BW. I know that at least Sian (Byzantium - Myst, The Wheel) didn't go Hunting first, cause or else he would have it already. Understandable; with his starting techs, Hunting first is hella lols. Probably getting Agri. SAT (Maya - Myst, Agriculture) didn't research Hunting either; my guess is Mining.

---

With respect to our positions, by process of elimination I can assume I'm next to Nicolae. Because thestick met SAT, SAT met Sian, and Sian met Nicolae. The full circle comes back to me meeting Nicolae.

All in all, I'm next to the player that threatens me the least and the player that threatens me the most. I think I chose the right axe rush target.