WW16: Lurker Thread [SPOILERS]

[Molach]

My poor unlucky goodfellas.

[uberfish]

Or there might be someone bulletproof that the mafia think is obvious town and tried to kill twice

[Sareln]

So let's do some numbers, since I don't think I've seen anyone grapple with them directly in the game thread.

Right now there are 11 players left, with either 3 or 4 wolves remaining.

More importantly:

12 players left / 3 or 4 wolves --> No Night Kill
11 players left / 3 or 4 wolves --> No Night Kill

Which means the magic number continues to be 6 or 8 players left in game for a wolf win. A declined kill on the 12 players left scenario makes some sense for wolves as it doesn't speed up their win at all, but that sounds more like a silver lining way of looking at it. If I were in on the wolf-kills I'd probably save the declined kill for the night before the lynch or lose day.

I think it's safe to say that Selrahc knows the math, so that makes his Zugswang statement pretty eyebrow raising.

[Sareln]

Or there might be someone bulletproof that the mafia think is obvious town and tried to kill twice

Interesting thought. From a theory perspective, if the wolves encounter what they think is a bulletproof role, do they test it again to see if it's one-shot or do they try to work around it?

[Serdoa]

I think it is kinda funny that now when we reach endgame and there are only 10 other players left novice doesn't know where to look for scum. Shouldn't it be the other way round actually? That said - should Lewwyn not start to actually hunt wolves now as well?

[zakalwe]

I wouldn't really be surprised to learn that all of Gaspar, Ichabod, and Lewwyn were scum. Scum tend to fall into a certain rhythm, with days 2-3 dedicated to distancing. So it's interesting to see who was been voicing mutual suspicions on those days without really following up on them later. I think those three fit the bill, although the same is probably true of others, as well. Or maybe I'm misremembering... too lazy to check.

[Sareln]

And Ichabod is wearing a post-restriction today?

[BRickAstley]

So, what are you trying to make a point as from that numbers analyzation Sareln?

[Bigger]

Or there might be someone bulletproof that the mafia think is obvious town and tried to kill twice

I think this is a very likely scenario.

Novice hinted of having some role like this early in the game. I think day 2 or 3, probably 2 as I think I was still alive. He said something to the effect of "it would be useless if scum tried to kill me." I kinda wrote it off as a strong player who knew he might be night killed early trying to discourage that, but maybe he was being truthful?

[uberfish]

Meta:

1) We can assume the mafia didn't miss two kills on purpose and there's space (and indeed a balance requirement) for 1 more town PR so whoever claims to have prevented the kills should be treated as confirmed town.

2) Although none of the post restriction victims can be cleared of faking it or having been genuinely post restricted by their own teammate, we can assume there's a mafia post restrictor (Since novice + meiz + ichabod all being scum and drawing connections between themselves by all faking a post restriction seems farfetched) and that doesn't really leave space for any more mafia PR