The German War

[novice]

That puts the known German army at 11 cats (55k), 5 elephants (40k), 5 chariots (20k), 19 axes (114k), 4 spears (16k), and 1 galley (2k), or 247k. That leaves 70k for garrisons in other cities and a secondary stack somewhere.

Well that is excellent news. How many turns would the german forces in the northeast need to join the front with us?

[kjn]

The forces 1W and 1S of Warendorf can each reach the capital in 3t, but they will have to move different paths. THe forces in Warendorf will need an additional turn.

They can probably put down some roads to speed the units in Warendorf down to 3t, but it would require roading at least two tiles (of which either two or flood plains, or one is a hill).

[Tyrmith]

How hard would it be for us to hold Webringen against that stack? How much would that cripple our ability to take other cities while they're trying to take the city back were we to take it with 2-movers?

[Ceiliazul]

Current turn 152

t+1 = our main stack takes Worms

t+2 = our 2-movers take Webringen (best case) AND with the Capital culture removed we can move part of our main stack can move from Worms to Webringen to reinforce.

t+3 the soonest elements from their WPC front can reach Webringen.

The upside is that the "best case" plan is still a go, but if the Germans hold webringen even one additional turn (for example while we add 3 more knights to our forward force) then we'll have to go the conventional route.

[kjn]

I set up a quick WB to check how bad the longbow in Worms is.

Worms has: walls, G1 longbow, C1 spear, axe, on a hill

We have: 5 knights, 3 war elephants, 18 maces, 10 catapults, 4 war chariots

A mace will have 0.79% odds against the longbow right now (confirmed in-game). By bombarding with all the cats, I got the mace vs longbow odds up to 6.78%. I think we are likely to lose two maces taking out the longbow.

A mace should then have 50% against the axe (provided the axe has max fortify bonus), and against the spear 96% odds (also with max fortify).

So I think we can take the city with an anticipated loss of three maces (two against the LB, one against the axe).

[Fintourist]

Sounds reasonable, and it doesn't take too much luck to lose only 2 maces. (Although losing the first fight without getting any hits in and end up losing 4 maces is possible too..)

[kjn]

So, planning for the offensive, now that the Germans have longbows.

City	Size	Hammers inv.
Worms	2	20 (dry whip)
Webringen	6	89 (whip 2)
Weil der Stadt	2	40 (dry whip)
Helm's Klamm	1	15
Wanzleben	2	67 (whip 2)
Wien	7	0
Wittenberge	5	39
Wismar	5	67 (whip 2)
Wilhelmshaven	3	66 (whip 2)
Warendorf	3	87 (whip 2)
Wesselburen	3	79 (whip 2)
Westheim	5	0

Based on this and the production tracking I believe the following cities will have war elephants in them next turn:

Webringen, Wanzleben, Warendorf

I believe the following cities will have longbows next turn:

Wismar, Wilhelmshaven. Maybe Wittenberge (needs 11H).

The following cities might have a longbow or war elephant in them next turn:

Wien

Weil der Stadt might have a spear or axe in it next turn, and likely the returning war elephant.

[SleepingMoogle]

Germany revolted into Vassalage? That means they'll be in anarchy this turn right?

Edit: nvm, spiritual. >.>

[kjn]

Someone (hope it was Sullla) moved up Dazed NW, so here is our better visibility of the German forces:




So in the area south of Webringen they have:

3 war elephants, (1 C1)
2 axes (1 C1+S, 1 C1)
1 spear (C2)
1 quechua (C1)

The spear and one elephant can pile into Weil der Stadt (which likely will have another spear or an axe in it next turn), the rest can pile into Webringen.

Note also that CFC sent their chariot deeper into German lands, and didn't pillage anything more.

[kjn]

Another thing. Right now we have a bunch of maces around Wasserburg that won't be outside Webringen until T156 at the earliest (provided we road the tile 2S of Worms next turn). However, they can be outside Wismar on T154.

I don't know what units, if any, the Germans has there, but I think we should send a mace to the plains hill tile 2SW of Wismar when we play the turn, if only to take a look and pillage the mine, if we get the opportunity. And if there are few defenders in Wismar, then it's a pretty soft target since it's not on a hill.

The city currently have 67H in the queue, so will either have a war elephant or a longbow in it next turn. My guess is a longbow.