[Spoilers] MJW, the King of Italy BLACK BOOTS (Merovech lurks)

[MJW (ya that one)]

MJW, thanks for still updating your thread in what is otherwise perhaps the worst reported game I've seen on this site.

Thanks sunrise. I really appreciate it.

If you are wondering why people aren't posting that much I have answers for everyone but Dtay.

Cyneheard: Tends not post a lot in general.
Mattimeo, Scooter and Rowain: They are screwed and people don't tend to post when that happens. The most egregious example of that is thread-spammer Rego's posting falling like a rock after being nuked and his civ looking like an orange in PB#1. I don't know what I would do if I were screwed...
TT: He has no option unless he can somehow gets scooter to trust him. It doesn't make sense for him to backstab me yet as he will get 3/4 of turkey's SCs. So if he would post all his posts would be "I'm staying the course" which would be lame.

Lying to make opponents waste their turn is extremely powerful. Scooter never got out of BUL. Being able to move only one turn before opponents is also extremely powerful. Despite our errors and that German army scooter and rowain never even had a chance.

In other news I've answered my own question:

Cutting Support: If the supporting unit is attacked during the turn by some other unit, its support is cut. In effect, the support order becomes a hold order, as the unit must defend its province against the attack. Note that a unit occupying the province into which the support is directed cannot cut support, unless its attack successfully dislodges the supporting unit.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well TT spaming his thread can only mean one thing. I called it as I said his low number of posts is a sign of good will. I'm not going to look at the post count from here on out as it gives you too much information but I will use it for this turn. Also TT's latest e-mail to me was very short and stupid which also hints at a stab.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well, I'm quite annoyed at France stabbing me...

I'll post detailed thoughts and the correspondence tomorrow. I'm not going to stop updating my thread because I'm getting my butt kick on like some other people.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well because it's a long time from last turn I think you guys are interested in only one thing from then. The lame e-mail that made me suspect TT--along with him not updating his thread and then suddenly thread-spamming:

mjw,
Looking at the map, I think it would be better for you to defend Greece and give my RUM fleet double support into BUL than make a play for AEG.
Then I can convoy my SEV army at CON or ANK and try to take two Turkish centres. Then he has to delete two units and your path to AEG will be easier and scooter will be as good as dead.
AEG has less strategic use now than potentially destroying two turkish units.
TT

Compare this to his long posts from earlier. This is a textbook example of this article: http://www.diplom.org/Zine/S1998R/Dorst/Complexity.html

In response I tried to get France on my side; but that didn't work. I'll well just post the CC after explaing my thoughts. TT said that that TRI move wasn't a stab (!!!) so he's obviously lying to me. I really don't need to explain why that's silly... Combine this with the fact that France cannot do anything against me unless TT helps him explains my panicked reaction. I feel better now as I've still have seven SCs and people still want my help (expect scooter) even if they dislike me and I don't feel so bad. Even if I die a horrible death it's still just a game.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Trying to get Rowain back on my side with chit-chat. Note the use of ")-:" is ironic on purpose. I used it to show how my opponent feels and now I'm using to show how I feel.

Subject Line: )-:

Well it's pretty obvious that TT stabbed me again otherwise the French fleet wouldn't be there as my defense would be too strong. So I'm willing to support you into BUD or do something else as long as you promise not to attack me.

I've tried talking to scooter and he still supports TT over me after being stabbed so you would have to get him on board. You can try and play "your better than this card". His defense to too compromised to do anything though.

Hi MJW,

Given that scooter disbanded an Army and kept his fleets I guess he is after your blood no matter what happens in Turkey.

Yes that's what I said to him. "You intentions are clear if you disband SMY". You could still try and do something with him. Him not updating his thread points to him be sad about having to be stabbed and still be an ally.

[novice]

I bet that complexity observation can be applied to mafia games as well.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Me prodding scooter uselessly. "----" means I sent a new e-mail.

Subject line:???

Did TT just stab me and you at the same turn? Anyway I'm quite annoyed at TT stabbing me. I think that convey move did so much damage to you that your in a kingmaker situation. If you disagree and think you can engage in meaningful diplomacy I'm willing to hear you out. I'll just point out that, if you discard your army in SMY your intentions are clear (helping TT to win).
----
Oh, Mardoc has bump up the due date by a day. So you want to work out some sort of deal were I don't build a fleet you need to contact him.
----
Okay, I think I know what TT did. He thinks you dislike me so much that you would support him even after a stab. If that's what happened you made the mistake of being too overt with your dislike.

In other news I've just realized F NAP is actually pro-Turkish as that extra fleet is useless against you offensively. So I get to wait and see your choice. Unless I made a mistake in which case feel free to correct me.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I bet that complexity observation can be applied to mafia games as well.

It already is--when people call out other people for lurking. You could use it in a more formal way though...

Here's some England diplomacy finally:

well it's pretty obvious that france attacked me. Are you going to attack france? He's totally going to order F MAO-->WES so you can just walk into MAO and he has no way to defend POR. I need to know to organize my defense.

Honestly, unlikely to stab france in the near future. Plenty of german things to take.

Oh, so even a free SC of POR is not good enough for you to stab? If that's the case are you going after Russia this turn? You have a bunch of units so just focusing on Germany seems a bit overkill so I'm a bit doubtful of your true intentions.

Just being honest: I'm not going to stab France this turn. Not sure what you mean with "true intentions". I'm certainly not fighting you given geography.

I'm just dubious if your telling the truth about only fighting Germany this turn as there's going to be a lot of units of yours that are not doing anything this turn.

I've also learned that dtay's name comes directly from his real name just like me.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Okay, I just have to post TT and France and then we are caught up.

I'm not as panicked as when I sent my France e-mails so take this with a grain of salt for now.

Subject line: lol

It's pretty obvious that TT is stabbing me too as my defense would be too strong for your fleet to do anything. If scooter and rowain refuse to talk to me I will contact you again so you can get my city centers and not TT. I've heard people coming back from 1SC but that's too unlikely so it's best to go into "screw you" mode as soon as you are under too much pressure.

Up to you - not going to complain if you'd rather work with me than TT. Let me know what you're thinking, and we'll see how we can make this work.

Well if you would work with me here's how it would go.

1. you get TUN

2. you still go to boh as planned and help me take it. I spout hate and saying that I'm trying to make you win the game so they would assume that you are taking it.

3. you end this year with an army in Mar to prevent you from building a fleet. Or keep the fleet in MAR.

This assume scooter and rowain don't talk to me at all. We would work out a different deal if they do. I would contact you if they talk. I'm pretty sure that if scooter flips I can trust him and use my fleets against you. We might be able to work something out still though.

[MJW (ya that one)]

And last up TT. If you only read one e-mail please read TT's first e-mail here as it's the most interesting. The idea that trying to take TRI wasn't a stab is asinine. I'm just playing mostly dumb with TT so it might be possible to work with him. For the record if TT did what he said I wouldn't stab him as I was very proud of finding the idea of losing ION on purpose so I could get closer to France. It's hard not to use something you spent an hour in creating...

Subject Line: Hi TT

Your orders seem a bit...uh...schizo. I guessed that you would stab me as you give me a lame two line e-mail when your internet was good which didn't make much sense because I knew about your earlier e-mails. Can you explain your reasoning for what you did? I have to understand you before we can talk about making deals.

j

MJW,

Basically, your suggested move into TYR just because France wanted it started me thinking that you were shopping around for 'stab cover' against me, especially as you would originally have had armies based in VIE & TRI too which would have only had one logical short term target - my Austrian holdings. Thus I thought it best to act to preempt your stab to try and keep us at a state of detente while I dealt with Turkey. I had picked up similar vibes from your last emails too that you were no longer on board so that basically made up my mind. I knew I wouldn't get TRI, but I needed to do enough to get your attention.

I don't think we are at the point where bridges have been burned, but I would like us to talk more about how to try and manage our eventual border so that we can focus on other threats rather than prejudging intent and having to keep numerous units around as stab protection. I/R remains the most powerful and logical long-term alliance, but we need to start long-term planning rather than short term if we are going to get to the point where we trust each other to pull it off.

Oh, okay...

I needed to go to TYR because an enemy unit there would be very annoying to me as it would attack three SCs of mine. Making France trust me was the goal. Him not guarding his boarder for a turn is more. Did you really think my tricky plan of losing ION on purpose to get closer to France was just a ruse? I wouldn't brother with that if I was dedicated to stabbing you.

If my TYR army didn't do that stunt it would hold as going to PIE tips my hand too soon. And after I mopped up turkey and Austria with you--my only logical targets are you, France and Germany. If I'm attacking you and Germany I would totally move to TYR. So not moving to TYR is saying to France "I'm going to attack you but I'm waiting until your back is turned". Combine that with the tactical advantage of France not defending itself my choice was clear. I could have explained all this if you expressed your hostility to my TYR move.

I really don't believe you that you intended to bounce in TRI but I can get over a stab.

I really cannot attack you so your the one who would have to prove his loyalty this turn by not attacking me. I would start trusting you again if you make scooter disband a unit that is not SMY so I can always defend myself. You can say that you can do more damage to me by making me able to trust you.

You can also take VIE yourself next turn. Burning your bridges with Rowain would make me start to trust you again. I would need to take another SC to maintain the balance of power though... I cannot make a play for VIE this year with out exposing myself to an attack.

Farewell,
MJW

So what do we do this turn? I think I'm stuck playing defense for obvious reasons. You taking VIE and burning your bridges with rowain is pretty much required for me to work with you though.

I have to play some zone defense with Germany too so there's only so much I can do too.

I can give you a safe flank vs France as best I can, but let me know how is best for us to coordinate.

TT

France cannot do anything to me unless you help him. So if you take BUL and support me into TRI I can start to trust you again. Taking BUL reduces the units that can attack me. And supporting me into VIE frees up a unit for me to use against france.