WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Ichabod]

Dtays comment about lynching those who rejected power roles seems quite flawed, really - sure there might be some scum among them, but there's also likely to be the best town roles. I don't think we want to draw those into the open - certainly not this early.

From the perspective of the Mafia, they're already "drawn into the open", since if the scum see a reject <great-role> and it wasn't one of them then they're already likely to kill that person.

The more salient point is yes, a person who rejected a 2nd tier town role is likely to either be mafia or have a tier 1 town role. It does come down to, if you could rule out someone being all the bad town roles (which is essentially what someone rejecting Doctor allows), do you want to lynch that person? They are undeniably more likely to be mafia than town, but if town are likely to be power-town.

But while the risk is there, unless we get an actual read on someone taking those odds seems better than just picking at random. And pressure creates reads. And pushing suspicions creates pressure. And since there's not really a "draw into the open" downside to pushing suspicions, we should therefore push on the suspicious rejections until we get a read or the day runs out.

These "the game play like this" posts are really wolfy...

Though dtay seems to be a pretty analytical guy from what I read from him in the forum, so I get this is just how he rolls, perhaps. (I get a similar vibe from his posts in Civ reports).

[Qgqqqqq]

That's a very meta uber alles argument, Dtay. I agree that it rules out the bad roles, so to speak, but I disagree that it should be the sole criteria for the lynch - certainly it's useful at this stage, but I think we'll be able to get enough of a read on someone to go for them. Maybe they'll also be someone who rejected a power role, maybe they won't be.

I disagree there too that they're out in the open - not that they shouldn't be pressured enough, but if we end up getting a spate of claims today, then it's an entirely different matter to just knowing that they're strong

Actually, rereading I think we're talking sideways. I'm not saying they deserve no pressure, you don't seem to be saying we have to lynch them. Just keep in mind that we don't want to confine pressure based on the meta.

[Ichabod]

The throwaways that jump out at me are novice (does he really dislike scum that much? I've honestly never heard that before), Adrienler (that role would be such good fun on this setup. I don't have much of a read on Ad yet though), Azarius and Mattimeo.

IC I can get, as someone talked about earlier, same for Ichabod's backup. I don't recall what the hider did, but I remember thinking it was OMGUS bad.

Who's IC?

[Ichabod]

Ok, Innocent Child, got it.

[dtay]

These "the game play like this" posts are really wolfy...

Though dtay seems to be a pretty analytical guy from what I read from him in the forum, so I get this is just how he rolls, perhaps. (I get a similar vibe from his posts in Civ reports).

I'll admit to not knowing why that seems wolfy, but feel free to explain. It seems to me that precisely explaining how I'm thinking is town-like if anything, since then you can either catch me being inconsistent or catch me proposing anti-town ways of playing.

And clarifying again - I'm not saying that the logic is in any sense the end all be all, but is just what to do pre-actual reads (and conveniently, pressuring the people who rejected power roles should create opportunities for said reads).

For example, while Novice's rejection is more suspicious than Q's, I'm think Q's explanations are pretty lackluster and thus scummy.

[Azarius]

Hider seems like a decently strong role to me. It's a one-off cop that dies if you find scum sure, but it can confirm innocents. Not the greatest but not useless either.

Q, why do you think 1 shot paranoid gun owner would be so much fun?

[dtay]

I disagree there too that they're out in the open - not that they shouldn't be pressured enough, but if we end up getting a spate of claims today, then it's an entirely different matter to just knowing that they're strong

Actually, rereading I think we're talking sideways. I'm not saying they deserve no pressure, you don't seem to be saying we have to lynch them. Just keep in mind that we don't want to confine pressure based on the meta.

I think I agree with these last two points, so talking sideways could be reasonable characterization.

We don't HAVE to lynch them, but we should target and question them and then if that process doesn't reveal a read on one of them (or on one of the accusers, not saying 0% think about them) THEN we should probably lynch them.

Anyway, that's the process I'm thinking with right now, gonna wait for a Novice reply unless something new comes up.

[Ichabod]

These "the game play like this" posts are really wolfy...

Though dtay seems to be a pretty analytical guy from what I read from him in the forum, so I get this is just how he rolls, perhaps. (I get a similar vibe from his posts in Civ reports).

I'll admit to not knowing why that seems wolfy, but feel free to explain. It seems to me that precisely explaining how I'm thinking is town-like if anything, since then you can either catch me being inconsistent or catch me proposing anti-town ways of playing.

And clarifying again - I'm not saying that the logic is in any sense the end all be all, but is just what to do pre-actual reads (and conveniently, pressuring the people who rejected power roles should create opportunities for said reads).

For example, while Novice's rejection is more suspicious than Q's, I'm think Q's explanations are pretty lackluster and thus scummy.

It's wolfy because those posts are a good way of appearing to make content without making actual content. They talk about "general rules" and are, thus, generic, not related to any specific situation or player (only marginally). So, when doing this, you avoid things like contradicting yourself when presenting an argument (which happens when playing wolf), or stepping on someone else's toe when making a case (which can quickly turn into a revenge vote, which you don't want when playing wolf), but you also give the appearance of content.

Usually, newbie wolves that are still getting their feet wet tend to fall back to arguments like this, when making more specific ones seems dangerous/hard.

What do you think about this?

[dtay]

What do you think about this?

Makes sense actually, but only if not coupled with actual particular suspicions, which I think i've been doing.

I think Qqqqq in particular is coming defensive, in the sense of reaching for any argument that would justify his choice as opposed to just the ones he believes.

And novice (who my vote is currently parked on) rejected a role so good I think he has an extremely high chance of being scum, though can't comment more until he comes online.

Second tier of suspects I mentioned: Azarius kind of for Vanilla cop, though that one isn't a killer. And then Lewwyn for IC, similar to novice waiting for him to come online.

[AdrienIer]

Well Novice and Qqq made some interesting choices... Q's argument is weak, and we're still waiting on Novice's explanation, let's see what he has to say :
Novice
I'm annoyed at Mattimeo for not taking the FBI, it's a low odds role and town can't be sure to get one, if there's a SK out there we definitely need one. But I don't count it as a scum move because he could just find the chase for a possible SK less thrilling than the fight against the wolves.

The throwaways that jump out at me are [...] Adrienler (that role would be such good fun on this setup. I don't have much of a read on Ad yet though)

Wow I really didn't expect anyone to pick up on the OSPGO, you would really want the town cop to die on night one investigating me ? I'd have taken most roles above this, and would even consider vanilla town better (well not sure because of boringness)