[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Bacchus]

Wow, size 7. Well done Savant. We really need to settle and defend X8, that looks hugely important strategically. Hopefully it's an island and not someone's backyard.

I also think we need to settle west of rhapsody quite quickly, we need more hammers outputting fleet into that sea, Whitehall is not enough.

[chumchu]

Some more serious points:

Settling plans east of shag vermin: Settling on extra food is nice but avoiding both the hill corn and the crabs would leave you without food resources until calendar and iron working.That means a weak city for a long time with the current commerce situation. Why not settle 9 of silver and get every resource on culture and a perfect NE city for later? It's a bit slower (needs a monument chop) but has better potential in the medium and long term.

City micro: How do you justify working grass cottages over horses and cows in rhapsody this early in the game? 3 commerce instead of 7 foodhammers seems like a terrible trade even if you need commerce. Is it not better to grow to pop 9 faster, slow produce the library and then work cottages?

A better plan for commerce would IMO be to grow onto improved tiles as fast as possible and avoid most whips until commerce stabilizes? Cowish rhapsody could use a library and you could use military units to avoid whips and workers to improve tiles. For instance, the silver mine in Ignis or switching a few grass mines to cottages or coast/lakes also seems better than not working your best resources in the capitol.

[Coeurva]

Settling plans east of shag vermin: Settling on extra food is nice but avoiding both the hill corn and the crabs would leave you without food resources until calendar and iron working.That means a weak city for a long time with the current commerce situation. Why not settle 9 of silver and get every resource on culture and a perfect NE city for later? It's a bit slower (needs a monument chop) but has better potential in the medium and long term.

First off -- we're not settling that area before at least IW, probably Calendar (gems would already justify the banana site pre-Calendar, though -- Westward should have popped borders by then.)

EDIT: 9 of silver is so tremendously superior that I'm not sure why I suggested bananas. Most likely, that site wasn't visible when I placed the "x post IW" sign. I'm assuming that I considered the site so obvious that it didn't need an "x" sign, didn't place it or delete the other one, and promptly forgot about it, never to think of it again. Or I did indeed never look at it.

Thanks for spotting it.

City micro: How do you justify working grass cottages over horses and cows in rhapsody this early in the game?

This was only changed right now on T74 (you can look at the MFG graphs to verify that). On T73, Rhapsody was configured for max hammers from improved tiles, and the north-eastern cottage was in fact being worked by Ignis Fatuus.

3 commerce instead of 7 foodhammers seems like a terrible trade even if you need commerce.

That's not the trade-off I'm seeing. The immediate trade from the swapped tiles is 5c vs. 9h; we're not actually getting a different food yield than if we were working cow, horses, copper rather than cottages. You could argue that Westward shouldn't work the rice right now and give it to Rhapsody instead, which will happen next turn unless I misremember Westward's food bin.

Quantifying riverside cottages as "2c" is possible, but slightly inaccurate as it discards the long-term benefit.

We urgently want to get to Alphabet for research builds into Currency. For every turn saved on Alphabet, we gain 15 bpt from research builds at the capital alone (assuming we've grown back onto the hammer tiles; more than that if we work mines -- and those turns might neglect the cottages, so we need to make up for that or fall behind later). For every turn saved on the library, we gain ~5 bpt -- during turns that we actually run 100% research, that is.

If Sicil and Vermin and maybe Whitehall are free for research builds at that time, the calculation gets skewed even more in favour of rushing towards Alphabet with every resource we can muster.

However, the library doesn't clog up the build queue to produce its effect -- research builds plus library is what we should be aiming for, yeah -- no matter that the library doesn't actually modify the builds. As long as we don't delay the library by more than 4t of using its effect by running cottages (0% research turns don't count, and seeing as working all cottages nearly doubles our gpt -- it's that bad -- 4t is probably accurate), we come out ahead. You're absolutely right that we should get working on that thing -- just want to reach the hamlet stage sooner, which will be relevant for Alpha research.

There's also the possiblity of simply chopping out the library instead of the settler and using Vermin's two chops to produce the X8 settler. Delays X9 though, wherever that may be. Atlantic City probably needs to be razed, unless CML actually forgets to avoid growth there, but I'm not assuming that.

A better plan for commerce would IMO be to grow onto improved tiles as fast as possible and avoid most whips until commerce stabilizes?

Only Ignis is not doing precisely that. We're already working max food everywhere else and working/improving every cottage that we have.

It's true that we could have one more river cottage at Sicil, but Whitehall needs the mine rather than a non-river cottage to produce the galley for X8 in time, whose settling upgrades our trade routes to +2 commerce (very important).

As for Ignis, I think an earlier GSci will prove more valuable than improving the silver mine (for which we don't have a worker right this instant -- Ignis just popped borders on this turn, so it couldn't have been done earlier -- nor a spear to spare for covering both the worker and the city against Savant's chariot). -- The work boat under production at Westward (which works the horse starting next turn) will allow us to improve the whales, at which point Ignis has options other than scientists and the overlapping cottage (which we could work over one of the scientists right now, I'll grant that -- I might be overestimating the benefit of the Academy).

EDIT: Regarding happiness from military police -- you're right about it, but we couldn't afford moving our units into most cities yet, because they were needed first against barbarians, then against CML's (formerly) seven axes + two warriors, then against Savant's chariot. We're 2t away from moving units into Sicil and Lifeblood, which is enough.

[Coeurva]

Wow, size 7. Well done Savant.

He's impressive in general. Expect his sixth city to go down on this turn; he double-whipped Ironfist for something on T72 iirc (I forgot if I mentioned that).

We really need to settle and defend X8, that looks hugely important strategically. Hopefully it's an island and not someone's backyard.

Fog-gazing suggests that the banana marks land's end, and Krill demanded "islands available for settling" in the setup thread, which makes me hopeful that it's not a site 6 tiles from Krill's capital.

I also think we need to settle west of rhapsody quite quickly, we need more hammers outputting fleet into that sea, Whitehall is not enough.

X9 = horse filler, settled ~T90 or a bit earlier (probably best to settle it right when Alpha completes)? We should have at least two workers in the area to improve Sicil as it grows to its happy cap, even after ferrying over the current Sicil workers to X8. Receives 1 chop into library; can take copper from Rhapsody, corn from Sicil, work grass horses + another mine.

[Coeurva]

Thinking some more about the commerce (hamlets) vs. hammers (library) trade-off -- both don't exist in a vacuum, but are coupled to our breakeven research rate.

We can generously assume that our break-even point is ~35% once we don't have units in neutral or hostile lands anymore, which will hopefully occur soon. That is, for every turn of 100% research, we pay two turns of 0% research.

If the library takes roughly as long to build as it would to grow the cottages (it doesn't, the library takes ~5t with max hammers, while the cottages take ~8t to mature on average), then the library yields 5 bpt (at max commerce) for one turn (100% research), and 0 gpt on the other two (0%). The three hamlets yield 3 bpt for one turn compared to cottages, then 6 gpt on the other two.

Are 6 gpt worth more than 2 bpt (and to be precise, the library's one-time asset of 5b due to finishing 3t earlier)? It seems that way, because 42gpt fuel an extra turn at 100% research for >60bpt (our current bpt) -- ultimately outperforming the library by 28b. (EDIT: There was a significantly less meaningful comparison here before, which I've since found doesn't apply.) Unless those 28b speed up Alphabet such that it finishes before the extra turn at 100% comes into play (doubtful), the library comes out at half the beaker yield with no added benefit.

I wonder if this actually makes any sense.

EDIT: If true, that highlights a conflict between IMP and CHM (otherwise I've found them quite harmonious) -- IMP tends to drag down your break-even research rate, but CHM enables cheap libraries which demand a higher break-even research rate to be efficient.

[Coeurva]

And thinking some more, since the turn won't roll today anyway...

I think the above calculation is essentially flawed, since it assumes that we're not working cottages after finishing the library, but keep investing in hammers. That's not forced by any means, since we'll genuinely have nothing left to produce after the library completes. We also have to consider where the settler fits in.

What we should actually consider is this:

a) growing three more cottages adds 1bpt to the library's yield at 100% research, compared to not growing them (because of rounding);
b) working cottages over hammer tiles at the capital currently adds 1 extra turn at 100% research for every ~6t invested, for a total of 60b;
c) finishing the library adds at least 5bpt to every turn at 100% research, for a total of 30b;
d) producing the library at max hammers (16 after CHM modfier) takes 5t (10h residue gained "automatically" on T75) by which the growth of 3 cottages will be delayed (i.e. 12g, 3b lost).

Thus in practice, the most efficient plan is to balance both cottage growth and library construction, so that we grow three cottages and finish the library once research gets turned back on. All the while, we need to get to Alphabet a.s.a.p. and grow Rhapsody such that it can work both cottages and hammer tiles (so probably no whipping the library... unless the extra beakers speed up Alphabet).

I think we can use the settler-producing turns to concentrate on cottage growth, since most of the production comes from two chops anyway, allowing us to use more hammers during the library turns.

Suggested Rhapsody micro (treasury guesstimates with Lifeblood cottage growth; the ongoing war with CML means it's impossible to predict unit maintenance costs -- I hope we can raze Atlantic City and retreat our units soon enough):

T74 5/0/2 3/0/2 2/0/3 2/0/2 2/0/2 2/2/1 -/-/- -- 22/30f, granary 60/60 -- 42g
T75 5/0/2 3/0/2 5/0/0 2/4/0 3/3/0 2/2/1 -/-/- -- 31/30f -> 17/32f, library 12/90 -- 56g
T76 5/0/2 3/0/2 2/0/3 2/0/2 2/0/2 2/0/2 2/2/1 -- settler 10/100 -- 70g
T77 2/0/2 3/0/2 2/4/0 3/3/0 2/0/2 2/0/2 2/2/1 -- settler 26/100 -- 85g
T78 2/0/2 3/0/2 2/4/0 3/3/0 2/0/2 2/0/2 2/2/1 -- settler 102/100 (two chops) -- 100g

Then from T79, we'll have to enter the balance act. I think I can wing it; the important part is to take the horses back from Westward at some point, so we'll need to improve the furs with 2 workers, or whip something at Westward (boat, most likely).

EDIT: Since five of our cities grow on T76, we'll save maintenance on at least one more unit at that point... but city maintenance will also increase.

EDIT:

Fear me.

[Bacchus]

Yeah, I'm afraid I can't be clued in enough into the game to provide meaningful commentary on micro details. I think the eventual conclusion is correct -- the library should finish somewhere in line with cottage growth, as that's precisely when it will become valuable. My question is whether you really want the capital and not some other city to build that settler. It seems to me that, with the Academy forthcoming, extra pop in capital is very valuable and can now grow cheaply. If we can build settler anywhere we don't have a granary (and won't have the academy, or maybe even a library), that would be a massive saving in terms of opportunity cost.

But yeah, not working the 6-yield and 5-yield tiles... ouch. At least horses can pass to Westward Ho, but the copper and the cows has to be counted as a legitimate fuckup on our part, I think.

[chumchu]

To clarify, I'm not against working the flood plain this early, only the grass cottages which are poor tiles compared to horse, cow, copper and even the oasis. I agree that cottage growth matters, but I would say that it is mostly in a medium and long term perspective. It's not a great to solution to immediate economic problems, it is an investment in a better economy later.

I would argue that there are still things to do with production that makes it worthwhile. Getting cities growing faster onto improved tiles by building workers and getting a library faster are obvious. Having more reserve units.

It seems backwards to avoid working hammer tiles when building settlers as IMP. You could save a forest for later and improve the furs faster if you get enough production or you could get it out faster which is also a saving. My suggestion is to grow capital to happy cap working max food while building library and after that pumping out settlers and workers until happy cap improves.

It is good that CHM is synergistic with itself in that it allows bigger cities which is good for your break-even research rate. IMP also have some synergy in that you do not have the same need to whip settlers as non-imp players.

[Coeurva]

Bacchus and chumchu, good point about the settler blocking Rhapsody's growth too much; we still have another settler enqueued at 45/100 inside Vermin and two chops falling on T77, barring CML moving in his axes again (which he probably won't do, since that would lose Atlantic City at once). That leaves two of our capital workers free for T75, actually, since they don't need to chop the settler. That allows us to save those forests, although we might want to chop another worker at some point instead -- or the library. I'm currently leaning to chop one of the forests into the library, but I'll have to think about it -- depends on when we can turn research back on. In any case, we can indeed improve the fur sooner to coincide with Westward's growth (iirc).

Another question: do we chop the forest fur into a worker at Westward (which doesn't need to do much beyond size2 right now), or leave it intact for the 1hpt?

EDIT: weak essay on urban planning removed. Better version below.

[Coeurva]

I think we need to get on the same page before I play the next turn (not tonight, anyway), since if you think going for any less than max hammers is a fuck-up (didn't see that edit before), I don't want to proceed with what I'm planning; what kind of team-play would that be. That said, we'll at least start working the copper again on T75, no matter what, since it fits with my plan as well.

Here's what I'm thinking about the Alphabet plan, which is what motivates this cottage carnival. I've tried to keep it short, but obviously, that never works out. TLDR in last paragraph provided, though.

Alpha costs 250 * 1.6 = 400 beakers, disregarding the prereq bonus. Our current bpt at 100% sci is ~60, losing -40gpt; current gpt at 0% sci is 14 (-7 unit maintenance with seven units outside cultural borders; this cost vanishes mostly within 2t, as Vermin will pop borders).

Our current six cottages are all ~8t or less from growth (the hamlet is 11t from village). ~T82, when we settle X8, marks a permanent 9c increase from upgrading all our seven trade routes to ICTR and gaining one more. Local commerce increases in the same timeframe will come from furs at Westward (4), whales at Ignis (4), and fish at Whitehall (2). Scattered cottages disregarded; maintenance will increase anyway (and remains a concern). What's more, with a 1-pop whip, Lifeblood will finish its own library on ~T81.

Thus we can expect a rate of 80bpt (-40gpt) towards Alphabet (5t at 100% sci). In fact, I'm optimistic that we'll be closer to 90bpt before the prereq bonus (108 after, enough to 4t it), as long as we can 6t a library at the capital from here (easily done with one chop; max hammers plus 27h produces it in 4t, actually). To finance these 100% sci turns, though, we'll need to accumulate either ~160g (hopefully) or ~200g (worst-case), and we don't have much time for this. Eyeballing it (~40g right now, 6t to go), we'll have to squeeze every penny. Every turn lost on Alphabet is an unquestionable disaster, costing us upwards of 30bpt into Currency on missed research builds.

Two grass cottages + one grass hamlet being worked for 8t, rather than 0c tiles (rice, copper, cow), obviously yield 56g at 0% tax. Thus working these cottages, with some leeway on avoiding them, reaches Alpha 1t sooner (because they finance another 100% sci turn), even if we don't add any further cottages from here. Since Ignis can take one cottage intermittently if necessary, we can still complete the library at Rhapsody at modified 12hpt (9hpt base, cow / copper / ph centre) without sacrificing cottage growth -- exactly the 6t needed if we chop once (I think we should), with residual overflow that we should try to avoid in favour of cottage turns. In fact, 9hpt (only copper) + 1 chop will suffice for a very neat 7t library, if X8 can't be founded earlier than T82 anyway. I'll have to look at that.

=> Gain from working cottages: 30b.

Returning to the more abstract hammers vs. commerce argument: because libraries are mere decorative bricks during turns of 0% research, here the efficiency of a local hammers investment is tied to one's global commerce investment and resulting gold reserve (as well as maintenance savings). The immediately-apparent 2h <-> 1c exchange looks painful only when you disregard that said 1c goes into grabbing more value from subsequent 2h.

The advice to emphasize hammers over commerce (which I've arguably followed a bit too eagerly in the earlier game) is given because hammers convert into food by building settlers, workers or granaries, and food is the most important resource, as it regularly converts into itself (hammers and commerce only occasionally do: e.g. forges, Currency, Oracle), as well as just about everything else (by way of converting into pop). Commerce rarely ever converts so directly into food; off-hand I can only think of Universal Suffrage.

But in this case (library), hammers convert into a bonus on beakers (not even commerce). Gold essentially converts into beakers via the slider. Hammers don't convert into beakers (yet! and even then, don't receive said bonus). Commerce, however, converts into gold into beakers that get boosted by the invested hammers -- there's our supply chain.

There's a catch, though: hammers overflow in Civ4. While overflowing out of a discounted item is often somewhat wasteful (because the entire OF gets readjusted by the same modifier, no matter where it came from, then rounded down), we're still unquestionably losing ~15h into some other item, potentially one that converts into food. We can retake the cow at size6 (adding to copper), which we'll probably want to do for the 3f if nothing else. We'll probably lose a few hammers on rotating in cottages along the way, so 15-20h seems like a good estimate of our hammer loss, but more likely on the low end. If only because everyone's gonna "yell" at me (reasonably!) if I skip hammers again.

=> Loss from working cottages: 15-20h.

TLDR: working these cottages for 8t equals a conversion of 15-20h into 30b. Think of these cottages as a quite efficient research build somehow available before Alphabet... by not working hammer tiles. I like how silly that sounds, but that's how Civ4 appears to work. If I got it right, that is. It's entirely possible that I did not -- juggling a bunch of numbers and missing the point is what (I think) I'm prone to doing.