Much appreciated -- I didn't get around to posting my thoughts. But here's some.
HBR also requires us to tech Archery before NumCav can be produced (stables before then, though), giving further incentive to teching it right now, so as to save turns spent on building garrisons, and thus gain turns spent on research/settlers -- if these turns can weigh up the beakers so that Currency isn't delayed, we'll be strictly better off. Still have to think about the actual numbers, though.
Non-ORG courthouses are not quite that great just yet, similar reasoning as you provided with forges -- they still take 8t at our best production cities, during which they cannot build wealth which returns far more gpt right now (courthouses save about 2gpt), which will be needed to push our breakeven back to 50%, although at the considerable cost of blocking build queues. Closer to ~20hpt I'd consider building courthouses (Rhapsody will hit that, but also has the lowest maintenance and probably benefits more from building a market first); earlier if we can afford whips. The real appeal of CoL is the religion (plus holy city, probably on some relevant border) and subsequent OrgRel/Theo benefits, perhaps indeed from the Paya. Depends on whether we can get a Buddhism spread, but odds aren't that great.
Disagree that Calendar is kinda useless (except before IW); it returns a whole lot of 5f tiles. Count the bananas we already have or can claim, and consider chumchu's strong suggested National Epic site in the south. Sugar is another +1 happiness, allowing us to delay Monarchy further.
Regarding Maths, do you think delaying the Academy (~20bpt on 100% sci turns, relevant to Currency research) will be worth the returns of Philosophy? I'd rather use Caste to generate the GSci for Philo, unless we go Maths right after Currency, which feels rather wasteful with the other options (all of which involve first-to bonus races) right in front of us.
I'm very doubtful of the Hanging Gardens, at least right now, since I assume we'll hit the happy cap at most of our cities before we could actually finish them, and we have about 1 worker per city with just enough improvements everywhere, which means the pop might really only go into Slavery, thereby returning 30h per city... which is lower than the cost of the Hanging Gardens plus aqueduct without the 50% bonus from stone. Even considering the redistribution of locally-focused hammers, I doubt that is worth as much as other stuff we could build, e.g. if SoZ allows us to capture cities later.
Construction would be useful right now, make no mistake. If I had ~10 catapults in addition to our 11-unit axe/chariot stack, I'd feel quite confident about attacking Yuri here, even without horse archers or swordsmen. Problem is that it's locked behind Maths, which isn't very useful in itself since we've chopped all the forests already, and we still have peaceful avenues for expansion that will always be more cost-effective (we are IMP, too). The deterrent effect of siege may not be so high compared to that of NumCav, which are also very customizable (taking Shock or Formation as needed). I'd rather spend less beakers on military tech when we're positioned and motivated to pursue economic advantages.
I think we can keep Fountain Head's culture output in check for a while with the libraries in Whitehall and Styx, the latter of which will finish in about 5-6t. The stele isn't even relevant before Savant adds a library, which he probably won't want to build before a granary; this delay will counterbalance his slightly-higher growth rate (5 cul/t).
I think that monasteries are very weak buildings for their yields at this stage of the game; the real reason to build them is to spread religion when OrgRel isn't available yet (due to tech path or anarchy cost), because OrgRel is very powerful. Even Rhapsody will only gain ~3bpt after building a monastery.
If we want to pursue religion + OrgRel + Bureaucracy, we'll need to think about where we'll get the Golden Age from; I don't think we can afford the anarchy.
Judaism hasn't been founded yet.
Suggestions:
a) (Archery ->) Currency -> CoL -> HBR -> (Myst -> Poly -> Mono depending on religious situation) -> IW -> Maths -> Calendar -> Aesthetics -> Literature. (Construction flexibly slotted in after Maths.)
b) (Archery ->) Currency -> CoL -> HBR -> (Myst -> Poly -> Mono depending on religious situation) -> Aesthetics -> IW -> Literature -> Maths -> Calendar. (SoZ path with an emphasis on the Epic cities)
Obviously, there's little value in Myst/Poly/Mono if we fail to land the religion either at CoL or Mono and don't get Buddhism spread to us, although Myst is needed for Masonry to unlock the wonder doublers. (Which I haven't included on the tech path, since it's cheap and the timing difficult to predict -- no use teching it before settling stone/marble, the Pyramids aren't something we want).
Might also delay HBR, but don't really want to. IW is an important economic tech for us (+1 happy, +7cpt from gems; vital to salvage our Crop Yield later), but quite dependent on timing.
As appealing as the SoZ looks, we also have to consider that Krill oracled a Classical tech that didn't found a religion (Aesthetics? Monarchy? Currency or one of its pre-reqs?)
EDIT: I'll also have to look up what the different ARTSTYLE definitions cause cities to look like across the ages. We can see that the Khatunate has already hit the Classical Age as well, for instance, and Joey hasn't because he's ARTSTYLE_GRECO_ROMAN -- which, for some reason, Carthage uses as well. Probably because it's only employed by three other civs: the Greco one, the Roman one, and the Greco-Roman one.
HBR also requires us to tech Archery before NumCav can be produced (stables before then, though), giving further incentive to teching it right now, so as to save turns spent on building garrisons, and thus gain turns spent on research/settlers -- if these turns can weigh up the beakers so that Currency isn't delayed, we'll be strictly better off. Still have to think about the actual numbers, though.
Non-ORG courthouses are not quite that great just yet, similar reasoning as you provided with forges -- they still take 8t at our best production cities, during which they cannot build wealth which returns far more gpt right now (courthouses save about 2gpt), which will be needed to push our breakeven back to 50%, although at the considerable cost of blocking build queues. Closer to ~20hpt I'd consider building courthouses (Rhapsody will hit that, but also has the lowest maintenance and probably benefits more from building a market first); earlier if we can afford whips. The real appeal of CoL is the religion (plus holy city, probably on some relevant border) and subsequent OrgRel/Theo benefits, perhaps indeed from the Paya. Depends on whether we can get a Buddhism spread, but odds aren't that great.
Disagree that Calendar is kinda useless (except before IW); it returns a whole lot of 5f tiles. Count the bananas we already have or can claim, and consider chumchu's strong suggested National Epic site in the south. Sugar is another +1 happiness, allowing us to delay Monarchy further.
Regarding Maths, do you think delaying the Academy (~20bpt on 100% sci turns, relevant to Currency research) will be worth the returns of Philosophy? I'd rather use Caste to generate the GSci for Philo, unless we go Maths right after Currency, which feels rather wasteful with the other options (all of which involve first-to bonus races) right in front of us.
I'm very doubtful of the Hanging Gardens, at least right now, since I assume we'll hit the happy cap at most of our cities before we could actually finish them, and we have about 1 worker per city with just enough improvements everywhere, which means the pop might really only go into Slavery, thereby returning 30h per city... which is lower than the cost of the Hanging Gardens plus aqueduct without the 50% bonus from stone. Even considering the redistribution of locally-focused hammers, I doubt that is worth as much as other stuff we could build, e.g. if SoZ allows us to capture cities later.
Construction would be useful right now, make no mistake. If I had ~10 catapults in addition to our 11-unit axe/chariot stack, I'd feel quite confident about attacking Yuri here, even without horse archers or swordsmen. Problem is that it's locked behind Maths, which isn't very useful in itself since we've chopped all the forests already, and we still have peaceful avenues for expansion that will always be more cost-effective (we are IMP, too). The deterrent effect of siege may not be so high compared to that of NumCav, which are also very customizable (taking Shock or Formation as needed). I'd rather spend less beakers on military tech when we're positioned and motivated to pursue economic advantages.
I think we can keep Fountain Head's culture output in check for a while with the libraries in Whitehall and Styx, the latter of which will finish in about 5-6t. The stele isn't even relevant before Savant adds a library, which he probably won't want to build before a granary; this delay will counterbalance his slightly-higher growth rate (5 cul/t).
I think that monasteries are very weak buildings for their yields at this stage of the game; the real reason to build them is to spread religion when OrgRel isn't available yet (due to tech path or anarchy cost), because OrgRel is very powerful. Even Rhapsody will only gain ~3bpt after building a monastery.
If we want to pursue religion + OrgRel + Bureaucracy, we'll need to think about where we'll get the Golden Age from; I don't think we can afford the anarchy.
Judaism hasn't been founded yet.
Suggestions:
a) (Archery ->) Currency -> CoL -> HBR -> (Myst -> Poly -> Mono depending on religious situation) -> IW -> Maths -> Calendar -> Aesthetics -> Literature. (Construction flexibly slotted in after Maths.)
b) (Archery ->) Currency -> CoL -> HBR -> (Myst -> Poly -> Mono depending on religious situation) -> Aesthetics -> IW -> Literature -> Maths -> Calendar. (SoZ path with an emphasis on the Epic cities)
Obviously, there's little value in Myst/Poly/Mono if we fail to land the religion either at CoL or Mono and don't get Buddhism spread to us, although Myst is needed for Masonry to unlock the wonder doublers. (Which I haven't included on the tech path, since it's cheap and the timing difficult to predict -- no use teching it before settling stone/marble, the Pyramids aren't something we want).
Might also delay HBR, but don't really want to. IW is an important economic tech for us (+1 happy, +7cpt from gems; vital to salvage our Crop Yield later), but quite dependent on timing.
As appealing as the SoZ looks, we also have to consider that Krill oracled a Classical tech that didn't found a religion (Aesthetics? Monarchy? Currency or one of its pre-reqs?)
EDIT: I'll also have to look up what the different ARTSTYLE definitions cause cities to look like across the ages. We can see that the Khatunate has already hit the Classical Age as well, for instance, and Joey hasn't because he's ARTSTYLE_GRECO_ROMAN -- which, for some reason, Carthage uses as well. Probably because it's only employed by three other civs: the Greco one, the Roman one, and the Greco-Roman one.

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