[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Bacchus]

Mmmm, I wouldn't send loaded galleys without trireme cover, that's just asking for trouble. We can pop the sentry chariot over to the island where Krill chariot gets killed, can't we?

[Bacchus]

I'm thinking about a feint, though. If he expects an attack at Mandrake, maybe we should give it to him -- send two (empty) galleys towards it, and then past it towards the mainland, but coming in from the north, suggesting a raid on 12 Monkeys/Animal farm.

[Coeurva]

The southern approach can be delayed by 1t to allow the triremes to catch up and cover the fleet. Then units could strike on T131, i.e. 1t later at Mandrake, but 1t sooner at Foxglove compared to the originally-planned northern approach.

Since we can escort the chariot-bearing galley with a trireme (and Krill might not even have vision on the tile for a turn after his chariot dies, if he isn't "overprotecting" his line of sight), I think that's better than landing the sentry on the island if we pursue the southern approach. It would also allow us to feint Mandrake (slightly) by presenting an ostensible vanguard while adding to the subsequent forking threat.

I don't think it's a good idea to spend 100h (and four cargo space that could be useful to actually threaten cities) on a 6t journey towards the Heroic Epic SoZ capital or its adjacent port. Best case, those galleys sit around 12 Monkeys for ~2t as Krill whips a trireme and kills them. Why split our stack?

If you think we cannot take either of Mandrake or Foxglove now, which are Krill's most exposed cities, there's no point in continuing the war (unless dtay joins in to attack Overlook Hotel, which would not really be much better for us).

[Bacchus]

I think we can take foxglove, and if not foxglove -- then cities deeper in. I see the immediate goal of this war as primarily destroying krill's capacity in this sea. Once that's done, we use the advantage we achieved to take mandrake and foxglove positionally. Foxglove we might even be able to take right away, but no matter if not, we can't really hold these cities until Lbows anyway, we don't have appropriate garrisons to guard against krills CR3 counterstrike yet.

[Bacchus]

Leaving chariot on island has strong advantage of keeping sight on mandrake and straits long-term, including showing all units built.

I would keep all triremes with main stack. Offering one galley as bait at mandrake may be an idea. If we can pull his triremes (if they exist, as they surely do) out of position down south, we would score a major achievement.

[Coeurva]

The galley with chariot will move onto the clams T128 to scout Mandrake; depending on the garrison, we take the northern or southern approach with the main stack; this also allows us to land the Sentry chariot on the island on the next turn, and cover it with a spear.

If we can't defend against Krill's counter-strike, might it be better to raze his cities and resettle them during our GA (building IMP settlers with extra hammers)? On the other hand, if we can get a few archers into a captured city, we'll inflict casualties that will surely allow us to hold until we can build lbows in Vermin.

If Krill has mostly axes for garrison in Mandrake and a token spear, landing instead of an amphibious attack, then promoting some swords to C1 Shock, might still wrestle control from him.

I can play the turn in a few minutes.

[Coeurva]

T128

Our spear has killed the chariot (2.1 str left). The garrison of Mandrake consists of three axes (2 C3 Shock, 1 C3). I actually think we can take that, because I've slightly changed what our attacking force will consist of.

T131 can see us attack with this force from land (the tile north of Mandrake):

4 chariots (2 C1 Shock, 1 C1, 1 Sentry)
1 catapult (Barrage1/2)
1 axe (C1 Medic1)
4 swords (C1 Shock)
2 swords (C1 Shock) amphibiously from Hebona

Which I think will be enough to capture Krill's city guaranteed. Zulan's simulator thinks so too -- but that doesn't consider what Krill could whip or ferry in during the 3t he gets from here (of course, best-case, he'll only have 1t to react to a visible threat when we land on T130). Best case, it's just more axes because he expects swords and nothing else to attack. Attacking out of the city with C3 axes into C1 Shock chariots is basically a coinflip, which favours us, since we have more units and better supply lines.

We can still change the composition of the loaded army on T129, though. Or sail past Mandrake and attack Foxglove instead. Or take the southern approach in the first place.

It's noteworthy that Joey has built an odeon in Red Coral, i.e. he's trying to grab our fish at Boneless Foals with artists (currently 29% Immortal culture); seems best to whip a lighthouse, then a library, to counteract this somewhat.

Pop at Krill's harbours: 3 at Mandrake, 2 at Foxglove, 4 at Hemlock, 6 at Overlook Hotel, 7 at everything else (Bates, Watership, Bay of Pigs, 12 Monkeys), ? at the city close to Donovan we can't see.

EDIT: Yuri is still investing his EP into us. This is a problem, I don't want to deal with his stack while we're at war with Krill (and open the door to dtay regardless of what we do), and Zodiac Spire is somewhat low on defenses right now (3 axes, 1 CG1 archer). Did I mention that dtay has 400,000 soldiers (we're second at 377,000) and leads every other demographic category as well? I wonder what he's waiting for.

[Bacchus]

Why would you take C1 Shock on swords over CR2 on all sowrds? 35% vs 45% difference. I can see the shock value for the final attacker and the garrisons/interturn cover, but surely 2-3 should be CR?

If you prefer to raze first, it makes southern approach more attractive -- raze Foxglove, then hopefully have lbow by the time Mandrake falls.

What sort of forces are likely to be left standing after we take on the 3 axes behind walls?

[Coeurva]

Uh, yeah, most of the swords absolutely can/should be CR2. Mostly I don't want the cat to get pulled as top defender against Krill's probable sally. Also I'm dumb and thought Shock was +50%, not +25%. They're not yet promoted anyway. Good news is that it makes victory a tiny bit more likely than what I've calculated.

I think we can't actually get the two amphibious swords ready on T131, though. (I haven't included them in the sim, either. Nor the catapult for that matter. I named 4 CR1+2 C1 Shock swords (to simulate the RtR bonus), 4 chariots with appropriate promos as our attacking force.) Zulan's simulator predicts 3 attacker casualties on average with all three C3 (+2 Shock) axes at 25% fortify, cultural defense 50%, and hill defense bonus.

If that's true, we'll probably have most of the swords and the medic axe left standing (plus anything Vermin produces, if we can afford to leave Hebona behind for ferrying duties). The Shock chariots deal good damage against the axes on average (but will probably die), more so if they're Barrage-injured.

It all depends on what Krill produces or can reinforce with, whether he decides to sally, and whether his sally succeeds more or less than you'd expect on the average, though.

We will actually get Feudalism by eoT131 via wealth builds in all forge cities (particularly if we can get some capture gold); I think we can galley-chain two longbows over to Mandrake by T133/134 if we prepare well.

[Bacchus]

Mandrake will have negligible capture gold, too recently built I think.