Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[oledavy]

Singaboy peacing out feels like a punch to the gut after sacrificing the cream of my navy to defend him. What really bugs me is that this peace doesn't do anything for him, other than buy him a 10 turn reprieve. There is nothing stopping Archduke and/or Woden from doing the exact same thing again after the peace treaty is over. What's worse for him, with battleships on the horizon, he is truly screwed as he won't be able to use land units to defend himself anymore.

[oledavy]

Turn 158

Civil Engineering in!



Swapped to Liberalism and....





Swapping out Natural Philosophy lost me about 8 SPT, but just looking at the top bar, gave me +9 GPT, +3 CPT, and +2FPT, not to mention the major gains in hammers and food. I can't keep this up forever, but if I do say so myself, I'm doing a pretty decent job managing 44 War Weariness. I estimate killing Spain will lower is by about 12-18. However, I'm not going to finish them off until t161/t162, so we shall see. 

In the northeast, Archduke moved in his ironclad and harassed by sub. Nice move. 



I'm a little worried about the city finishing walls between turns. I am detailing the wounded sub up here to make sure the city falls. However, the sudden appearance of a lot of British navy and/or the completion of walls could make this more difficult. Otherwise, I'm mobilizing to attack Woden. 



You can see most of my ships headed west in this picture. In the east, I sniped a musketman or Archduke's to get promotions on a couple more frigates. 

At present, I have: 

4 Submarines
8 Ironclads
11 Frigates 

Not all will be able to hit Woden on the first turn, and critically, the only way I can sink MGs is with sheer weight of numbers (especially when you consider his first strike). 

However, he only has 7 frigates to upgrade at the moment. I expect he will get 1-2 more out before Nationalism arrives. It's going to be close. I hope he considers my proposal, I would prefer not to just wail on each other to Archduke's benefit. But, it might come to that.

[oledavy]

Also, super glad Singaboy didn't get all wobbly on me and leave. I appreciate the temptation to accept a peace offer must be very strong, but realistically, we either settle this thing now or Archduke just comes back and finishes him off with help from 3-range MG's in another 10 turns. Archduke is not getting any weaker, and him staying in this war and keeping the WW piled on gives me a fighting chance. 

If Woden upgrades to MG's next turn, I'm in a lot of trouble.  If he does it on t160, I'm in less trouble but still in a rough spot. If it's t161 or later, I'm set.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I admit, I'm not sure what Archduke is talking about when it comes to peace. He's never offered any sort of viable proposal, not even really responding to counter-offers. He also really likes to hammer on the split Japanese fleet, but I still stand by your decisions there - you made your dispositions when it was assumed you'd be fighting a bloody battle at the strait, where numbers mattered less and you needed another way to pressure Archduke. By the time it shaped up to be an open seas brawl, only a handful of units could have joined, and after the way your subs fared I'm not sure they would have been that effective.

Basically, the GAs surpassed even our worst-case estimations of their strength. The fact that England gets half-cost harbors and double GA points from them is huge - either one would be a good benefit, but both in combination make the civ absurdly powerful on naval maps. The only reason the game isn't over already is because Ole Davy carefully planned his civ to land the VA, warped most of his production towards that end for ~30 turns, and he STILL can only just match England at sea (more or less) - and all England had to do was build his cheap districts and profit.

I'm not saying anything's broken, just that it's a challenge to play against. I don't know of any other large-scale naval games like this - there may not *be* any, since most of the MP community apparently likes lightning-fast duels on tiny Pangaea maps. So, there may not be all that much playtesting around balance and I think some of the mechanics might want a look in a hypothetical mod, lest every game devolve to "race for the VA* or play England."


*Of course I'm aware that there's counterplay here. If the other guy is sinking his hammers into the VA, you sink yours into a navy and then you go and take it from him before he can use it to build a bigger fleet. But then THAT guy is the top dog, and on it goes. Basically I'm saying I think the land game is in a good spot, but the naval side of things probably isn't set yet. I haven't even touched on issues like Japan's underwhelming UUs compared to others or other civ traits.

[oledavy]

I admit, I'm not sure what Archduke is talking about when it comes to peace. He's never offered any sort of viable proposal, not even really responding to counter-offers. He also really likes to hammer on the split Japanese fleet, but I still stand by your decisions there - you made your dispositions when it was assumed you'd be fighting a bloody battle at the strait, where numbers mattered less and you needed another way to pressure Archduke. By the time it shaped up to be an open seas brawl, only a handful of units could have joined, and after the way your subs fared I'm not sure they would have been that effective.

Basically, the GAs surpassed even our worst-case estimations of their strength. The fact that England gets half-cost harbors and double GA points from them is huge - either one would be a good benefit, but both in combination make the civ absurdly powerful on naval maps. The only reason the game isn't over already is because Ole Davy carefully planned his civ to land the VA, warped most of his production towards that end for ~30 turns, and he STILL can only just match England at sea (more or less) - and all England had to do was build his cheap districts and profit.

I'm not saying anything's broken, just that it's a challenge to play against. I don't know of any other large-scale naval games like this - there may not *be* any, since most of the MP community apparently likes lightning-fast duels on tiny Pangaea maps. So, there may not be all that much playtesting around balance and I think some of the mechanics might want a look in a hypothetical mod, lest every game devolve to "race for the VA* or play England."


*Of course I'm aware that there's counterplay here. If the other guy is sinking his hammers into the VA, you sink yours into a navy and then you go and take it from him before he can use it to build a bigger fleet. But then THAT guy is the top dog, and on it goes. Basically I'm saying I think the land game is in a good spot, but the naval side of things probably isn't set yet. I haven't even touched on issues like Japan's underwhelming UUs compared to others or other civ traits.

I appreciate your concurrence with me. Of course, I look forward to reading everyone else's threads after the game and seeing what I'm missing, if there is a blind spot in my read of the situation and I'm seriously overstating England's strength. I have to say though, I really don't like the naval meta. It doesn't feel like there are that many interesting decisions to be made my comparison, especially early. And the naval civs feel very bimodal in their strength. I'm sure if Vikings had run away with things I would be similarly annoyed with their naval melee production bonus. 

I do think Woden is being a little blinded by VA, and doesn't realize that while it is extremely strong, in this case, it keeps me in the game rather than giving me a 'win' button. 

For the record, my needling of Archduke earlier in the game was about 90% bluster. I think he's played generally pretty well here. He's definitely improved more in three games more than I generally see any player improve in their entire time at RB. I'm vaguely irritated with Singaboy, as his play is a big reason for this current mess (Not defending well, giving Archduke an absurd peace deal, HELPING him get the city with a Natural Wonder to benefit more from Darwin, showing up late to the fight and contributing to the defeat of my fleet, not retreating when I suggested it, etc.). This is not to say I didn't have my own hand in the current state of affairs, indeed, I am more satisfied with this game than any I have played in a long time because for once it doesn't feel like it was completely decided on the other side of the world. But, I wish Singaboy had played just a little better here. I wish we could have a game where all the players are at some level of parity and we can have interesting modern conflicts instead of desperate struggles to eliminate and fight over the scraps of the have-nots. 

Then there is Woden. I'm terrified I'm going to open the next save and he'll have MGs. I don't think anything I can do will convince him not to attack me, but I'm going to try. I'm still just so pissed at him for DoFing Archduke. None of this had to happen if he'd just helped me maintain the balance of power. Anyway, if he doesn't want another DoF, I hope he knows I'm not letting him win this.

[oledavy]

Alrighty, time to see if Woden bites. I'm actually not entirely sure getting out from under the 2v1 right now with this deal right improves my position, especially if it just kicks the can down the road. I doubt he'll accept it though, so whether or not it actually helps me is most likely a moot point.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

technically it's a 2v2 although Singaboy doesn't bring a whole lot of offensive power to the table

anyway, I think a rapprochement with Woden would obviously be ideal for you, so yeah he's probably not going to allow it. It might not hurt to throw him a salve to his pride - an apology for Jerusalem and an explanation that it was in response to his perceived betrayal by allying with Archduke. Might have to grit your teeth, but hey I think all's fair in diplomacy. Otherwise I think it's the right message to send (reminding him of the power of archduke's GAs - the way he won at nearly 2 v 1 odds just on their strength alone - couldn't hurt. If he sticks with the Archduke, he's basically giving up on winning the game without having ever fired a shot in anger apart from the ineffectual invasion of Germany).

[oledavy]

Turn 159

The First World War grinds on, and with my DoW on Libson this turn, every single entity on the board has been at war with at least one other in this complex and multifaceted conflict that just keeps dragging on. 

I'm really disappointed Archduke and Woden aren't reporting these turns, as I think this is by far the most interesting conflict in any of our Civ6 PBEM games to date (with the possible exception of Archduke's attempt to kill me in PBEM2, which I thought was a fascinating engagement). 

I got lucky outside Stockholm, and got to have my cake and eat it. 





I would have loved to keep or liberate the city, but it's too close to Archduke's center of power. The city had to burn. I hope if nothing else it conveys my utter commitment to take enormous losses and keep on slugging. 

Because I only used my ironclad, I was able to first strike a British sub that Woden nicely lit up for me. 



My sub can promote next turn to heal any counter-attack damage. He has at least one wounded ironclad north of here. But it can't hit the sub.

If I can kill one of his subs, it would be pretty big. I've arrayed my forces to have options next turn. Next turn, I will have options to: 

 - Fight Archduke if he counter-attacks with the sub + ironclad, perhaps even go raze his northern city after. 
 - Pillage Woden's 6 trade routes he has running to Nan Madol
 - Kill any frigates he leaves around
 - Begin assaulting his cities. 

If it wasn't already apparent, Woden did not upgrade to MG's between turns. A huge boon for me. Moreover, he did something interesting. 



He paid to do that Civic Swap, he still hasn't finished Nationalism. Interesting....

Anyway, I declared war on Lisbon to reroute the seven trade routes I had running to the city. 



Costly, but necessary. Good idea Chevalier!

Last shot of Woden's core, which didn't make the upload I'm seeing, has him at 8 frigates and 1 caravel. I have a good idea where they are all starting from next turn. His army has all but returned to his home continent. The combination of Medieval walls, muskets, and bastions means the two target cities both have 71 strength. Difficult to assault, but hardly insurmountable, especially with the sheer number of frigates I have sailing in. The question is how long it takes him to get to Nationalism. 

In Spain, I began my final assault on CFCJesterfool's last city. 



Only 2-3 more turns to go here. 

Apparently, subs can hit units on land. 



It makes sense for gameplay reasons, but is weird to see in action. 

Finally, the situation in Germany: 



Archduke didn't take any cities between turns, but it looks like he did a number on Singaboy's army. I expect that sub is headed for Spain's east coast, but I can't worry about that right now. 

Btw, the fact that Woden is not detailing my fleet movements to Archduke anymore is both worrying and concerning.  Maybe he's less invested in the game now and is resigned? But if that is true, maybe that means he doesn't care if he's just helping Archduke win. Maybe he's just been too busy.

At any rate, much now hinges on his response to my deal offer. 

The fact that he got on the forums and didn't immediately post a response means he's considering it at least.

[oledavy]

As an aside, after mulling over a bunch of my options during the day, I really think any amount of diplo is just completely toxic towards having a good game. Public diplomacy thread, private diplomacy, whatever it is, it's all equally awful. The bad blood isn't even the big deal here, it's the fact that diplo allows you to use basically anything you want as leverage. The Norway deal is just an appetizer of how diplo can allow you to use advantages in other areas into prizes you could never otherwise take. 

Consider this: 

Woden doesn't take my deal, says he likes his chances. 

Okay then, it becomes near imperative for me to make peace with Archduke at any cost and rid myself of WW. Otherwise I will have a lot of trouble surviving Woden. 

So I offer Archduke peace in exchange for something absurd, like Europa and the VA. It all but guarantees that Archduke wins the game, but what choice do I have but to make any deal I can to try and stay in it at that point? 

There is just endless potential to use otherwise basically untradeable things to swing the game. And moreover, it makes 2v1ing extremely dangerous. What is truly stopping the dogpiled player from simply opening themselves up to one of the allied powers and dragging down the other. If you engage in a dogpile, you have a 50% chance of winning or being effectively put out of the game by it - unless your ally is fair in redistributing the spoils. However, if the spoils put them in a game winning position where they don't need your aid anymore, they have no motivation to.  This is essentially what happened when Archduke and I fought Singaboy earlier. I had nothing to show for my 30+ turn war with him, other than Viking gold, and Archduke got 8 cities for free. He refused to even trade me a single city for my trouble, because he knew he could use it to consolidate his position. This danger does exist to an extent in AI Diplo only, but having diplo actually allows you to put a fine point on it and make moves like this a matter of policy that will be immediately apparent.

Anyway, I just really hate that this game ever had a diplo thread. But, the genie is out of the bottle now. No choice but to follow through.

[Ichabod]

It doesn't help that Civ 6 game mechanics allow for players to passively harm others, when a full conquest isn't possible. War weariness and occupation penalties being the big culprits I can think of right now.

You had motherland unhapiness in Civ 4, as well as war weariness, but there are better ways to deal with these problems.