[SPOILER] And now for something completely different: DaveV is Hannah

[haphazard1]

The penalty on that event is just so large. A free bard would be nice, but crippling your capital that badly would be a hell of a price.

That is quite the disparity in commerce.

[DaveV]

There's a lot going on in one picture this turn.



My super warrior in Bruces killed the barb goblin, who walked onto the copper. He gained 2 XP and took a bit of damage. Since my traits are still FIN/RAI (probability of no switch: 32% and falling), I'm going to build a half-price market in the city and run a merchant specialist. That will start generating some GPP and will probably let me bump up the research slider.

I'm defending against the barb warrior, since I don't want to attack out of my borders and certainly not into +50% defensive terrain. I doubled up my warriors on the sugar tile to protect against rolling a natural zero on defense. I also doubled up workers on the tile: a waste of a turn on one of the workers, but it gets the sugar hooked more quickly, and should let me grow Argument Clinic and Bruces on workboats. In addition to buffing all my warriors, bronze working allows chopping of jungle, so that's going to be a very useful tech for me.

I'm essentially herding that barb warrior towards a spot where I can attack him on flatland, or he has to attack one of my guys on defensive terrain.

Cheese Shop will finish its workboat this turn and build a cove for more commerce. I'm researching Animal Husbandry so I can improve the cows, reveal horses, and get a little bit more food for Cheese Shop. After the workboat, Cheese Shop will work the cove and build a bunch of warriors. I may slot in another market if I'm still FIN.

The next city will go 3E2S of Cheese shop. This will be a great city: riverside, with fish, dry corn, a cove, and two hills. Animals won't move onto resource tiles, so the fact that a wolf is standing there means I'm not building on top of a hidden resource.

[DaveV]

Another workboat, more commerce, blah blah.



The barb warrior didn't move, which usually means he's gathering his courage for an attack. I like my odds, but it means less XP than killing him on the attack.

The third worker put one turn (out of 7 needed) into a sugar plantation, so my three workers should add another happy resource in two more turns.

[haphazard1]

What happens to your market builds if you change traits in the middle? I guess the bonus just stops, but you don't lose the effect on what you have already invested, correct?

[DaveV]

Yet another good design decision in Civ 4: the hammers are doubled as they're put into the box, so that bonus can't be taken away. It's the same for a resource doubler: if someone disconnects your marble when you're 90% of the way to completing a wonder, that last 10% is slower but you don't lose any of your progress. It's the intuitive way for the game to work, but it's surprisingly hard to have everything work the way you'd expect it to.

[DaveV]

The barb warrior by the sugar attacked my two warrior, three worker stack, doing no damage but giving 1 XP to a warrior who already had 1 XP. Promotion, yay!



In the south, the cursored stack is going to build a road to the next city site. There are a couple fogged tiles where a griffon could be hiding, but I should have good odds unless the griffon has already eaten someone else's unit.

I had the governor in Bruces set up to emphasize great people, so the merchant was assigned right away. His gold didn't go into my coffers, but it's showing up on the demographics screen. There's a case where order of operations worked against me. Twenty three turns until the great merchant arrives (unless the RNG decides to give me PHI before then).

[haphazard1]

Another promotion is always nicee.

Do you have specific plans for the future great merchant?

[DaveV]

Do you have specific plans for the future great merchant?

Golden age. In a perfect world, I'll use it to switch civics to City States, Nationhood, and Apprenticeship, and adopt Octopus Overlords religion.

Another event to start the turn:



I think mutation is handled in the source code, which I don't have on this computer. So I'll quote the manual:

8% Chance to receive each of the following Promotions (meaning the unit could easily receive none, and could rarely receive all 27):
Amphibious, Blitz, Cannibalize, Combat 1, Mobility 1, Sentry, Resist Cold, Resist Fire, Immune to Disease, Resist Lightning, Resist Poison, Empower 1, Heroic Defense, Heroic Strength, Winterborn, Strong, Regeneration, Stoneskin, Heavy, Light, Vulnerable to Fire, Weak, Crazed, Diseased, Enraged, Withered

I'll insert a rant here about the general misunderstanding of low probabilities: the chance of succeeding on 27 successive 8% rolls is 2.4 x 10 ** -30, which does not fit my definition of "rarely"; I think it would be more accurate to say "never." But, people buy lottery tickets and go to casinos, so what do I know?

The manual is comprehensive and well researched, but it's about ten years old, so it contains some inaccuracies. In this case, I think Crazed and Enraged were removed from the list of possible mutations. Out of that original list of 27, only the last 6 are bad (and some of the good ones are really, really good), so I consider mutation a gamble worth taking. Here's how it worked out in this case:



Resist cold and resist fire are useful against several of the most common spells, so they may pay off (much) later. Diseased is a problem, more for the slow healing than for the loss of combat strength (although that stings too). Priest units can cast a spell called Cure Disease that (surprise!) removes the Diseased promotion, but it will be a long time before I have any of them. Disease can also be cured by an event, and a unique tile improvement called the Pool of Tears. In my experience, this map script doesn't ever place any of the unique improvements, so the latter cure isn't going to happen.

Note also that because I have Chaos mana from my palace, there's a 2% chance that any unit I build is born Mutated. This includes workers and settlers, although they can't be affected by Mutate otherwise.

Here's the overview after I ended turn: the settler is complete, with enough overflow for a 1-turn workboat. The wolf attacked, and did a lot of damage for 2 strength against 4 + 45%.



Horses appeared at EoT, giving some more potential production to Bruces. Unfortunately, I already wasted time farming them, but I have three workers who will be looking for something to do next turn.

[haphazard1]

Horses at Bruces are very nice.

Mutation via Chaos mana is an interesting gamble. I also usually consider it worth trying, as long as it is not a unit that is desperately needed for some reason (just in case the luck is bad). Getting diseased without getting one of the stronger positive possibilities is a bit unfortunate, but such is the RNG.

[DaveV]

Another barb warrior appears to the north. Look, Mr. Barb, a sugar plantation you can pillage! Pay no attention to the two bronze warriors standing there!

But the big news of the turn is the appearance of Doviello borders to the southwest.



He now has six cities to my three. I'll soon have four, but I expect him to keep churning them out at his higher rate.



I was planning to build a city on the plains hill E of the revealed borders, now that city is invalidated. The only upside is that there's now a substantial DMZ between us. Long term, Aurorarcher is obviously going to end up with a lot more cities than me and the potential to overwhelm me with production. On the other hand, his GNP curve is trending down while mine is trending up. Can a small, technologically advanced empire triumph over a larger one? History, unfortunately, says "probably not."